A-L-E-K Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Surprisingly solid storm downtown, nice action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Nice shelf cloud rolling through right now. I took a few pics, will post soon. Our own The Weather Pimp (Brandon) is live on the air on Indy FOX59 news right now as he's in Tippecanoe County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Nice shelf cloud rolling through right now. I took a few pics, will post soon. Our own The Weather Pimp (Brandon) is live on the air on Indy FOX59 news right now as he's in Tippecanoe County. One of the most gorgeous shelf clouds I have seen in quite sometime! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 The HRRR seems to have a pretty good handle on things this morning and both it and the RUC destablize very quickly in eastern NE/IA and northern IL. also morning vis sat.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 One of the most gorgeous shelf clouds I have seen in quite sometime! Indeed. My pics on my phone are crappy, so I won't even post. Not that everyone hasn't seen shelf clouds before anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 geez...the 11z RUC is breaking out scattered/discrete precip along the warm front from north of DSM to east of DVN to south side of Chi to Tony's backyard...in a very unstable and highly sheared environment..but I just don't if I see that happening with the warm H7 temps its progging, much warmer than the 0z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Indeed. My pics on my phone are crappy, so I won't even post. Not that everyone hasn't seen shelf clouds before anyway. We got some really good ones - we'll try to post them later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Indeed. My pics on my phone are crappy, so I won't even post. Not that everyone hasn't seen shelf clouds before anyway. Crappy cell pics are crappy cell phone pics, but i'll take a nice shelf cloud or mammatus over a distant rain wrapped twister shot anyday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 Crappy cell pics are crappy cell phone pics, but i'll take a nice shelf cloud or mammatus over a distant rain wrapped twister shot anyday. but would your adrenaline? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 We got some really good ones - we'll try to post them later. Please do. Crappy cell pics are crappy cell phone pics, but i'll take a nice shelf cloud or mammatus over a distant rain wrapped twister shot anyday. True that. More rocking and rolling ongoing. 3" of rain or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Flash flood watch for most of the ILN warning area, including Dayton and Cincinnati. A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT CONTAINING COPIOUS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE ENHANCED BY ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THE WATCH AREA...WITH FLASH FLOODS POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 Two different plays I see today as of right now... 1. eastern/northeast NE- but..I don't like the ongoing storms in northwest KS that are heading northeast into this area...You would have to get on something early and hope it can tornado before things get messy. With that veer-back-veer profile and such a strong wave/height falls coming through, were going to see alot of storms fire me thinks and the shear vectors are just not there. But possibly something maybe along the BVN-SUX line where the 850's are backed and possibly a easterly sfc component on and just north of the warm front for some better helicity. 2. The ole warm front...central IA-northern IL-northern IN...the problems with this is the current ongoing precip that has most of IA/IL/IN socked in clouds but the RUC/HRRR are both showing rapid destabilization behind this. But progged H7 temps are going to be very warm...between 13-15 degrees C from OAX along I-80 to DKB...*IF* something can fire on the warm front it will have great turning from the sfc to 500mb to work with. Lets see if sitting under good mid-level flow on the northern rim of the ridge can do the trick. And if a supercell can sustain itself, its going to be rather HP with weak upper level winds (around 40kts and 250mb) If I were home and not in Orlando, I'd probably station around DVN and see what happens, too much of a risk to drive all the way to NE and end up with linear crap or embedded HP sups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Just passed 2 vehicles completely submerged/stuck in high water just off of I-69 on the Northeast side of Indianapolis - crazy flooding occurring. Not surprised the storms kept backbuilding over Indy for about 4 hours this morning, I bet someone had a >5.00 jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Two different plays I see today as of right now... 1. eastern/northeast NE- but..I don't like the ongoing storms in northwest KS that are heading northeast into this area...You would have to get on something early and hope it can tornado before things get messy. With that veer-back-veer profile and such a strong wave/height falls coming through, were going to see alot of storms fire me thinks and the shear vectors are just not there. But possibly something maybe along the BVN-SUX line where the 850's are backed and possibly a easterly sfc component on and just north of the warm front for some better helicity. 2. The ole warm front...central IA-northern IL-northern IN...the problems with this is the current ongoing precip that has most of IA/IL/IN socked in clouds but the RUC/HRRR are both showing rapid destabilization behind this. But progged H7 temps are going to be very warm...between 13-15 degrees C from OAX along I-80 to DKB...*IF* something can fire on the warm front it will have great turning from the sfc to 500mb to work with. Lets see if sitting under good mid-level flow on the northern rim of the ridge can do the trick. And if a supercell can sustain itself, its going to be rather HP with weak upper level winds (around 40kts and 250mb) If I were home and not in Orlando, I'd probably station around DVN and see what happens, too much of a risk to drive all the way to NE and end up with linear crap or embedded HP sups. If I had a pick I'd say Des Moines to Storm Lake to Mason City would be my target area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 The 12z RUC is tanking the sfc low down to 988mb in south-central NE and those p-falls are creating a serious sfc response...30kt sfc winds from TOP-OAX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 2. The ole warm front...central IA-northern IL-northern IN...the problems with this is the current ongoing precip that has most of IA/IL/IN socked in clouds but the RUC/HRRR are both showing rapid destabilization behind this. But progged H7 temps are going to be very warm...between 13-15 degrees C from OAX along I-80 to DKB...*IF* something can fire on the warm front it will have great turning from the sfc to 500mb to work with. Lets see if sitting under good mid-level flow on the northern rim of the ridge can do the trick. And if a supercell can sustain itself, its going to be rather HP with weak upper level winds (around 40kts and 250mb) I think the smart bet is to head west, but i'm not totally ruling out this area, going to be interesting to see if H7 temps warm as much as progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 The 12z RUC is tanking the sfc low down to 988mb in south-central NE and those p-falls are creating a serious sfc response...30kt sfc winds from TOP-OAX. Northeast NE is gonna see some off the chart supercell parameters later on today. If things can stay discrete long enough we should see a couple long track tornadoes near the SD/NE/IA area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Myself and kevlon62 are headed out to NE/IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 How we looking for severe weather here in SE MI the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Myself and kevlon62 are headed out to NE/IA. what an awful drive, good luck. I see SREF starting to increase numbers further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Interesting bump upward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 I'm not buying the tornado chances the SREF is predicting over Western Ohio. The warm front is moving quite slow and I'm not sure the clouds will move out in time. If I'm wrong, I guess I'll be chasing after work this evening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 shoulda coptered to my target y-day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Whoa. OUN just included the following words on their Enhanced Weather Page: "Wind driven hail up to baseball size.....gusts up to 80MPH." My best guess on initiation time down here is between 5-6PM. Edited to add: weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*IndyMeso* Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Not surprised the storms kept backbuilding over Indy for about 4 hours this morning, I bet someone had a >5.00 jackpot. You aren't kidding! Woke up around 4 am with a great discrete cell. Had tons of great lightning and some brief pea sized hail. Saw some pictures with my friends getting nickel or dime sized hail. After that, they just keep coming. Just had another storm roll through. I heard some parts of downtown Indy were a mess this morning... I can only imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 southwest IA clearing out quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Whoa. OUN just included the following words on their Enhanced Weather Page: "Wind driven hail up to baseball size.....gusts up to 80MPH." My best guess on initiation time down here is between 5-6PM. Edited to add: weenie ...KS/OK/TX... FARTHER SOUTH...A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW IN KS INTO CENTRAL OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S AND MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM EASTERN KS INTO CENTRAL OK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUPERCELL WIND PROFILES...COUPLED WITH VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SURFACE T-TD SPREADS. THIS COMBINATION MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT HAIL AND WIND POTENTIAL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO MID EVENING PERIOD. THIS AXIS MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IN LATER UPDATES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 <font face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"> ...KS/OK/TX... FARTHER SOUTH...A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW IN KS INTO CENTRAL OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S AND MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM EASTERN KS INTO CENTRAL OK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUPERCELL WIND PROFILES...COUPLED WITH VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SURFACE T-TD SPREADS. THIS COMBINATION MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT HAIL AND WIND POTENTIAL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO MID EVENING PERIOD. <b>THIS AXIS MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IN LATER UPDATES.</b></font> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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