OceanStWx Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Big question will be possible (probable?) morning MCS, subsidence behind it, and destabilization behind it. If we get sufficient destabilization and lift, well that wouldn't be good for Chicago metro... That's definitely a potential fly in the ointment. HRRR lingers convection in eastern Iowa into 17z, which meshes with the latest SPC WRF run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Excellent shots Baro, especially the lightning shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Big question will be possible (probable?) morning MCS, subsidence behind it, and destabilization behind it. If we get sufficient destabilization and lift, well that wouldn't be good for Chicago metro... Yep, our typical concerns this time of year from the Mississippi Valley points east. Another reason why forecasting warm front convection is extremely difficult. Especially beyond 12hrs lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Nice shots, BI! One day I'd love to chase in the Northern Plains. Seeing a storm over the Sand Hills or the Black Hills would be awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 That's definitely a potential fly in the ointment. HRRR lingers convection in eastern Iowa into 17z, which meshes with the latest SPC WRF run. Yeah, SPC WRF is interesting. Looks like it has the MCS through this area about 18z, but then has discrete development around 21-22z plowing through the south suburbs and essentially right over my house (though location is fairly irrelevant). I just can't help but think of June 5th last year, when the clouds lingered most of the day, and then, well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 I've heard of just leaving the shutter open for a few seconds and hoping to get lucky, to actually snap one would take some luck. That's how most are taken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Yeah, SPC WRF is interesting. Looks like it has the MCS through this area about 18z, but then has discrete development around 21-22z plowing through the south suburbs and essentially right over my house (though location is fairly irrelevant). I just can't help but think of June 5th last year, when the clouds lingered most of the day, and then, well... It does show a late go at convection. The timing of that nocturnal convective remnant is just so critical. Sometimes it can be exactly what you need to lay a boundary to keep LCLs low. The latter being very important on the 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 1157 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN DECATUR COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA... * UNTIL 1230 AM CDT * AT 1153 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES NORTH OF LAMONI...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... LEON...DECATUR CITY AND VAN WERT. In the radar hole, but has good GTG at 5000' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 It does show a late go at convection. The timing of that nocturnal convective remnant is just so critical. Sometimes it can be exactly what you need to lay a boundary to keep LCLs low. The latter being very important on the 5th. My fear, given that the SPC WRF tends to be a few hours slow, is that reality will be the MCS being through here by 16z and then we have prime destabilization time, and that it's not handling that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 My fear, given that the SPC WRF tends to be a few hours slow, is that reality will be the MCS being through here by 16z and then we have prime destabilization time, and that it's not handling that... Next few hours should actually be pretty telling for overnight trends. Because if the SPC WRF is wrong tonight, it will likely be with timing more than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 My fear, given that the SPC WRF tends to be a few hours slow, is that reality will be the MCS being through here by 16z and then we have prime destabilization time, and that it's not handling that... Especially since the MCS should have a nice forward motion to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Not sure if someone posted a late night vis--but the overshooting tops on tonights storms were incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 I love that area for chasing, SW NE/NE CO/NW KS. And you and I think the same way. Totally agree--I have always been of the mindset seeing anything is a success--especially after going to college in ND where everything is always a "marginal" event and cap busts were the norm. Nice. Trying to get a lightning shot? I've heard of just leaving the shutter open for a few seconds and hoping to get lucky, to actually snap one would take some luck. I actually was trying. I was on the drive home--and I was surrounded by three rather large supercells. One to my NW was going to pass right over the road I was driving on--so I just stopped and took pics of the lightning show until that storm passed east. Excellent shots Baro, especially the lightning shot. Thanks! Nice shots, BI! One day I'd love to chase in the Northern Plains. Seeing a storm over the Sand Hills or the Black Hills would be awesome. Agreed. The Sandhills area is actually far more scenic than many would think. Lots of wide open scenery out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 we'll be heading to sioux falls tomorrow maybe head down to sioux city, the river crossings are going to be a problem but we'll probably try and stay east of the river and let the storms come to us should be an interesting day tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 we'll be heading to sioux falls tomorrow maybe head down to sioux city, the river crossings are going to be a problem but we'll probably try and stay east of the river and let the storms come to us should be an interesting day tomorrow. Good luck! You going with the grad students? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 My fear, given that the SPC WRF tends to be a few hours slow, is that reality will be the MCS being through here by 16z and then we have prime destabilization time, and that it's not handling that... I share the same concern. NAM looks a bit ominous. It's definitely not a setup to sleep on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Good luck! You going with the grad students? Ya hopefully we'll have 3 of us but at least one other grad student is going. I'm hoping to at least get on a decent looking supercell to get some structure after that is a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Photo's from todays chase near Woodbine, KS photo's have been sent to nws Woah. AMAZING PHOTOS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Smallest watch box ever? haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Smallest watch box ever? haha Yeah you'd think that they'd locally extend the tornado watch into that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Smallest watch box ever? haha http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0445.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Good morning LAF posters BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 554 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN FOUNTAIN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... TIPPECANOE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... NORTHEASTERN WARREN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... * UNTIL 645 AM EDT * AT 549 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES EAST OF WILLIAMSPORT...OR 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LAFAYETTE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... RAINSVILLE AROUND 600 AM EDT... PINE VILLAGE AROUND 610 AM EDT... SHADELAND AROUND 615 AM EDT... PURDUE UNIVERSITY AND LAFAYETTE AROUND 630 AM EDT... WEST LAFAYETTE AROUND 635 AM EDT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Good morning LAF posters BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 554 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN FOUNTAIN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... TIPPECANOE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... NORTHEASTERN WARREN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... * UNTIL 645 AM EDT * AT 549 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES EAST OF WILLIAMSPORT...OR 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LAFAYETTE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... RAINSVILLE AROUND 600 AM EDT... PINE VILLAGE AROUND 610 AM EDT... SHADELAND AROUND 615 AM EDT... PURDUE UNIVERSITY AND LAFAYETTE AROUND 630 AM EDT... WEST LAFAYETTE AROUND 635 AM EDT... Oh yeah, no sleep this morning. Just pea size hail here, but man is it rockin' right now. Also props to Brandon and SWATChasers with the video/shots being shown on FOX59 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Oh yeah, no sleep this morning. Just pea size hail here, but man is it rockin' right now. Also props to Brandon and SWATChasers with the video/shots being shown on FOX59 this morning. Figured we would give them some live video on our way to Iowa haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Figured we would give them some live video on our way to Iowa haha. Yeah lol, pretty cool man. Might not have to go far from home today. Also IND radar down again. Possible lightning hit. NOUS63 KIND 200918FTMIND Message Date: Jun 20 2011 09:18:15 KIND IS DOWN UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. MAY HAVE TAKEN A LIGHTNING HIT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Just passed 2 vehicles completely submerged/stuck in high water just off of I-69 on the Northeast side of Indianapolis - crazy flooding occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Also IND radar down again. Possible lightning hit. Ironic considering it's 'Lightning Safety Awareness Week' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Nasty nasty bow in Jasper County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Decided to take the scenic route and take I-65 instead of I-74 - that bow just looks to impressive to pass up - amazing shelf cloud, just getting ready to hit Southern Tippecanoe County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Ironic considering it's 'Lightning Safety Awareness Week' lol, yeah. Decided to take the scenic route and take I-65 instead of I-74 - that bow just looks to impressive to pass up - amazing shelf cloud, just getting ready to hit Southern Tippecanoe County. Wave as you pass through LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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