cyclone77 Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Wow, look at the difference in 500mb winds between the NAM and GFS from 12z. The NAM shows the 60kt+ H5 jet streak in Iowa that I mentioned above, and the GFS shows nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 The ol' SREF shows an area of tornado probs over central and eastern Iowa later tomorrow/tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Verbatim the 00z GFS would not be good for Omaha Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Also ups our anty for Tuesday...stronger impulse in here -> stronger low-level ageostrophic response -> due S sfc winds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 The more I look at it, the 00z GFS is just insane for this region on Tuesday. Cap broken by 00z, 40-50kt 0-6km shear, almost due S sfc winds with 35-40 kt H85 winds from the SW, oh and 4000-5000J/kg of CAPE. Thank God this isn't the night before... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 The GFS definitely took a step away from the flat, weak, and positive tilt solution. Going to be an interesting next 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 My gosh, you just don't see this type of deep PV anomalies end of June. Now that is the definition of low static stability on the synoptic scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 It's remarkable the level of agreement between the 12z Euro and the 00z GFS. We'll see the 00z Euro, but boy you do not see that kind of agreement very often, let alone in summer...even early summer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 It's remarkable the level of agreement between the 12z Euro and the 00z GFS. We'll see the 00z Euro, but boy you do not see that kind of agreement very often, let alone in summer...even early summer... Through 72 the ECMWF looks even more consolidated with the upper trough and a tick slower--actually looks more like the NAM. I think the ECMWF will be a significant ejecting low as it seems to be even a tad deeper with the upper anomaly than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 06Z Severe Weather Analysis uploaded. Right now showing greatest instability in and near Broken Bow, NE - Memphis, TN - Grand Island, NE - North Platte, NE - Jackson, TN. Convective gusts up to 68 knots and hail up 1" in diameter still possible. Uploaded at http://smartwxmodel.net Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 It's remarkable the level of agreement between the 12z Euro and the 00z GFS. We'll see the 00z Euro, but boy you do not see that kind of agreement very often, let alone in summer...even early summer... Yeah, I have to agree, and the thing is the Euro has been the more consistent model as of late too. Needless to say this could be very very interesting early week. Nothing tops a seasonally strong vort max ejecting out into an explosively unstable environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Goodness sakes. Day 6 ECMWF would be a potential outbreak. Fantasy land stuff--but those de-amplifying semi-negative tilt waves flattening a ridge like that can cause a lot of trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Goodness sakes. Day 6 ECMWF would be a potential outbreak. Potential? haha! Definitely extremely ominous looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Potential? haha! Definitely extremely ominous looking. Haha, well verbatim it would be doom and gloom. Mainly said potential since it is Day 6. Still wow--that just looks nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Haha, well verbatim it would be doom and gloom. Mainly said potential since it is Day 6. Still wow--that just looks nasty. Boy you said there, hell from Day 4 on it looks very ominous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Boy you said there, hell from Day 4 on it looks very ominous. Shiznit is going to hit the fan if that happens. This is going to be a busy next 4-6 days. It has been a while since I have seen such a vigorous PV/shortwave trek from the Rockies through the Great Lakes like the ECMWF/GFS are suggesting this late in the year with such a beefy preceding subtropical ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Shiznit is going to hit the fan if that happens. This is going to be a busy next 4-6 days. It has been a while since I have seen such a vigorous PV/shortwave trek from the Rockies through the Great Lakes like the ECMWF/GFS are suggesting this late in the year with such a beefy preceding subtropical ridge. Tbh I cant remember such a strong trough digging that far South over The Rockies this late in the season. Really something surprising to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Obviously nothing to put stock into, but fantasy graphics from the 00z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 00z GFS for Tuesday Evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Is next week's 'ominous-looking threat' confined to the plains, or does it appear as though it may translate to the southern Great Lakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Is next week's 'ominous-looking threat' confined to the plains, or does it appear as though it may translate to the southern Great Lakes? IMO, it looks like the MI/IN/OH area is also in play, especially on Tuesday/Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Haha, well verbatim it would be doom and gloom. Mainly said potential since it is Day 6. Still wow--that just looks nasty. this is a weather board.. i think you mean awesome and you really hope it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 6z GFS continues down the same path as the 00z GFS - showing a significant multi day severe weather/tornado threat. Parameters are down right ugly (well as Ian stated thing look amazing) for Indiana/Illinois/S. Michigan/W. Ohio on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Yep, this is the obligatory vacation severe weather the Western Great Lakes receives. I will probably be viewing the situation from afar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 SPC meso shows very weak winds at 500mb from Iowa back into Nebraska, on the order of 10-25kts. A far cry from the 50-60kt+ jet streak the NAM had been advertising in previous runs. For this reason bulk shear is terrible, and there is essentially nothing to kick off thunderstorms except surface boundary interactions, etc. Instability is gradually building across Iowa and northern Illinois, but not sure what's gonna come of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 SPC meso shows very weak winds at 500mb from Iowa back into Nebraska, on the order of 10-25kts. A far cry from the 50-60kt+ jet streak the NAM had been advertising in previous runs. For this reason bulk shear is terrible, and there is essentially nothing to kick off thunderstorms except surface boundary interactions, etc. Instability is gradually building across Iowa and northern Illinois, but not sure what's gonna come of it. The next 2-3 days are so wishy washy, it's really hard to buy into any solutions for beyond monday next week. I do think an MCS dropping down through central Illnois is a good bet tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 The next 2-3 days are so wishy washy, it's really hard to buy into any solutions for beyond monday next week. I do think an MCS dropping down through central Illnois is a good bet tonight. Yeah it definitely looks like the best chance for severe will be where SPC has the higher probs for today. Bulk shear values are considerably better from southern Nebraska/Kansas through Missouri into central/southern Illinois. We do have decent instability building further to the north, but for organized severe we're lacking the wind support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Tuesday/Wednesday does look scary looking for IL, IN, MI, OH. We might want to create a separate thread for that event and leave this one for events preceding the impending monster as both the European and GFS seem to be trending in a similar direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Tuesday/Wednesday does look scary looking for IL, IN, MI, OH. We might want to create a separate thread for that event and leave this one for events preceding the impending monster as both the European and GFS seem to be trending in a similar direction. Just a hunch, but I suspect they are being a little too aggresive with lifting the surface warm front north given all the MCS activity that will likely take place to the south between now and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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