Thundersnow12 Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 Five elevated supercells lined up really neatly right now in srn NE - northeast CO. All TOR-warned. same thing in NE/IA/MO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 same thing in NE/IA/MO I wonder if the mesoanalysis got the signifigant tornado parameter in the right spot. SW Iowa looks amazing now and the storm in KS got sheared apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 This is somewhat insane/dangerous. For night-time events, I've not seen tightly defined, isolated cells rolling through one after another like it's showing south of Omaha into Iowa right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 I wonder if the mesoanalysis got the signifigant tornado parameter in the right spot. SW Iowa looks amazing now and the storm in KS got sheared apart. i seem to recall sref showing it picking up a lot in that area around/after dark. pretty sick radar though.. like 8 hooks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 This is somewhat insane/dangerous. For night-time events, I've not seen tightly defined, isolated cells rolling through one after another like it's showing south of Omaha into Iowa right now. last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 I wonder if the mesoanalysis got the signifigant tornado parameter in the right spot. SW Iowa looks amazing now and the storm in KS got sheared apart. This just goes to show that fancy derived parameters aren't the end-all be-all of severe weather forecasting. My guess is that strong 700-800 mb warm air advection with intensifying LLJ combined with diurnal decoupling provided sufficient convective inhibition to end this cell. There isn't much at all in the way of large-scale forcing in the area either - futher NE strong conv/ll ascent due to nose of LLJ is making it easier for cells to maintain themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 NAM is significantly cooler with H7 temps across nrn IL/IN tomorrow evening and breaks out convection along the warm front with a very unstable and highly-sheared atmosphere. ****. NAM has burned me so many times over the course of my six months on these forums that I'm starting not to take it as a legit model. Whenever it is wrong, it is almost always too bullish on weather events around here, as well. That said, I have a good feeling since I'm elsewhere that the Milwaukee area will see some serious storms in the next couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 last night? JoMo - I'm just catching up. Was out of commission in Pittsburgh this weekend for a wedding, but I'm back in Nashville now. Missed last night, so I'll have to read up. Got a great shot of a sup. developing this evening, and it went warned about 15 minutes ago 80-100 miles to my southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 1011 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN ATCHISON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI... * UNTIL 1045 PM CDT * AT 1006 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A CONFIRMED TORNADO 8 MILES NORTH OF TARKIO. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH CROSSING HIGHWAY 59. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... WESTBORO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 one of the most amazing and beautiful radar images/loops I've ever seen. 5 supercells in a east-west line going up on the LLJ. The three still in NE went up and took hard right turns, just wow. Also three of them are over 60kft tall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 one of the most amazing and beautiful radar images/loops I've ever seen. 5 supercells in a east-west line going up on the LLJ. The three still in NE went up and took hard right turns, just wow. Also three of them are over 60kft tall. Kelvin-Helmholtz Tornado Outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 JoMo - I'm just catching up. Was out of commission in Pittsburgh this weekend for a wedding, but I'm back in Nashville now. Missed last night, so I'll have to read up. Got a great shot of a sup. developing this evening, and it went warned about 15 minutes ago 80-100 miles to my southeast. Ah, these actually have hooks tonight so it was different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 1023 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011 MOC005-200345- /O.CON.KEAX.TO.W.0052.000000T0000Z-110620T0345Z/ ATCHISON MO- 1023 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN ATCHISON COUNTY UNTIL 1045 PM CDT... AT 1016 PM CDT...A TORNADO WAS DETECTED 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF COIN IOWA...OR 9 MILES NORTH OF TARKIO...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. THIS STORM HAS A RECENT HISTORY OF PRODUCING A TORNADO JUST WEST OF HIGHWAY 59. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... WESTBORO TO THE IOWA BORDER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 one of the most amazing and beautiful radar images/loops I've ever seen. 5 supercells in a east-west line going up on the LLJ. The three still in NE went up and took hard right turns, just wow. Also three of them are over 60kft tall. Almost looks like a time lapse of one cell. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Tennis ball sized hail reported west of Arapahoe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 crazy wind profile and hodograph in eastern NE tomorrow night at 3z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 nasty train of blister sisters there.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 I cannot wait to see what happens around here tomorrow afternoon/night. I think it could be real fun and potentially very rough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 crazy wind profile and hodograph in eastern NE tomorrow night at 3z Veer/back/veer. Messy storm modes. If the NAM verifies, the biggest threat will likely actually be ern IA/nrn IL/nrn IN... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 I cannot wait to see what happens around here tomorrow afternoon/night. I think it could be real fun and potentially very rough. I'll pray for a 'bust.' Been doing that since 4/27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 one of the most amazing and beautiful radar images/loops I've ever seen. 5 supercells in a east-west line going up on the LLJ. The three still in NE went up and took hard right turns, just wow. Also three of them are over 60kft tall. WTH? Thats Crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 Veer/back/veer. Messy storm modes. If the NAM verifies, the biggest threat will likely actually be ern IA/nrn IL/nrn IN... Ya I know, just had to post that lol that veer-back-veer profile could stop what could be a bigger outbreak of tornadoes out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Can anyone see the size of Northboro, iA? Looks like it just took a direct hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Soundings for ORD off of the 0z STL WRF...for 21 & 0z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 04Z Severe Analysis: North Platte, NE - Concordia, KS - Manhattan, KS - Imperial, NE - Broken Bow, NE are highest instability areas, with SFC CAPE of 3842 j/kg, 0-3KM Shear 47.5 knots, 0-1KM EHI are holding right around 12, 0-1KM SRH are steady around 380 m/s. Potential still for 80kts, 1.8" hail. TI index is showing North Platte, Norfolk, Broken Bow, and Imperial Nebraska as the most favorable for tornadoes. Detailed output uploaded http://smartwxmodel.net Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Photo's from todays chase near Woodbine, KS photo's have been sent to nws Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 The conga line of warm front supercells reminds me of what happened in Iowa on 4/9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 I wonder if people still think that a few tornadoes in northern OK tomorrow is outrageous... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Can anyone see the size of Northboro, iA? Looks like it just took a direct hit. 60 as of year 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 I wonder if people still think that a few tornadoes in northern OK tomorrow is outrageous... Shear more perpendicular to the boundary down that way too. Can't sleep on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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