Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

June 17th-22nd severe threat


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I wonder if the mesoanalysis got the signifigant tornado parameter in the right spot. SW Iowa looks amazing now and the storm in KS got sheared apart.

i seem to recall sref showing it picking up a lot in that area around/after dark. pretty sick radar though.. like 8 hooks.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is somewhat insane/dangerous. For night-time events, I've not seen tightly defined, isolated cells rolling through one after another like it's showing south of Omaha into Iowa right now.

last night?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I wonder if the mesoanalysis got the signifigant tornado parameter in the right spot. SW Iowa looks amazing now and the storm in KS got sheared apart.

This just goes to show that fancy derived parameters aren't the end-all be-all of severe weather forecasting.

My guess is that strong 700-800 mb warm air advection with intensifying LLJ combined with diurnal decoupling provided sufficient convective inhibition to end this cell. There isn't much at all in the way of large-scale forcing in the area either - futher NE strong conv/ll ascent due to nose of LLJ is making it easier for cells to maintain themselves.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NAM is significantly cooler with H7 temps across nrn IL/IN tomorrow evening and breaks out convection along the warm front with a very unstable and highly-sheared atmosphere. ****.

NAM has burned me so many times over the course of my six months on these forums that I'm starting not to take it as a legit model. Whenever it is wrong, it is almost always too bullish on weather events around here, as well. That said, I have a good feeling since I'm elsewhere that the Milwaukee area will see some serious storms in the next couple days.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

last night?

JoMo - I'm just catching up. Was out of commission in Pittsburgh this weekend for a wedding, but I'm back in Nashville now. Missed last night, so I'll have to read up.

Got a great shot of a sup. developing this evening, and it went warned about 15 minutes ago 80-100 miles to my southeast.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

1011 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHEASTERN ATCHISON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 1045 PM CDT

* AT 1006 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS

TRACKING A CONFIRMED TORNADO 8 MILES NORTH OF TARKIO. DOPPLER RADAR

SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH CROSSING HIGHWAY 59.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

WESTBORO.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

one of the most amazing and beautiful radar images/loops I've ever seen. 5 supercells in a east-west line going up on the LLJ. The three still in NE went up and took hard right turns, just wow. Also three of them are over 60kft tall.

Kelvin-Helmholtz Tornado Outbreak.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

JoMo - I'm just catching up. Was out of commission in Pittsburgh this weekend for a wedding, but I'm back in Nashville now. Missed last night, so I'll have to read up.

Got a great shot of a sup. developing this evening, and it went warned about 15 minutes ago 80-100 miles to my southeast.

Ah, these actually have hooks tonight so it was different. :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

1023 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

MOC005-200345-

/O.CON.KEAX.TO.W.0052.000000T0000Z-110620T0345Z/

ATCHISON MO-

1023 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN ATCHISON

COUNTY UNTIL 1045 PM CDT...

AT 1016 PM CDT...A TORNADO WAS DETECTED 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF COIN

IOWA...OR 9 MILES NORTH OF TARKIO...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. THIS

STORM HAS A RECENT HISTORY OF PRODUCING A TORNADO JUST WEST OF

HIGHWAY 59.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

WESTBORO TO THE IOWA BORDER.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

one of the most amazing and beautiful radar images/loops I've ever seen. 5 supercells in a east-west line going up on the LLJ. The three still in NE went up and took hard right turns, just wow. Also three of them are over 60kft tall.

Almost looks like a time lapse of one cell. Crazy.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

04Z Severe Analysis: North Platte, NE - Concordia, KS - Manhattan, KS - Imperial, NE - Broken Bow, NE are highest instability areas, with SFC CAPE of 3842 j/kg, 0-3KM Shear 47.5 knots, 0-1KM EHI are holding right around 12, 0-1KM SRH are steady around 380 m/s. Potential still for 80kts, 1.8" hail. TI index is showing North Platte, Norfolk, Broken Bow, and Imperial Nebraska as the most favorable for tornadoes. Detailed output uploaded http://smartwxmodel.net

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...