blackjack123 Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Lets get these cell on the souther end of that boundary in better moisture! Also, Manhattan, KS =F6...if F5 is finger of God, what is F6? I thought an F6/EF6 tornado would only be hypothetical. I mean an F5/EF5 tornado causes damage to be so complete that it is unrecognizable. What could go beyond that scope of damage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Looks like we have initiation of cells in far southwestern Nebraska, south of Imperial. Up to 38k ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 19, 2011 Author Share Posted June 19, 2011 Looks like we have initiation of cells in far southwestern Nebraska, south of Imperial. Yep echoes to 34kft in southern Dundy county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Looks like we have initiation of cells in far southwestern Nebraska, south of Imperial. Hope they can get outta the higher LCL's, and mature enough to get to North Platte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Towering cumulus in east central Kansas now too. Looks they they are fighting the cap hard though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 I thought an F6/EF6 tornado would only be hypothetical. I mean an F5/EF5 tornado causes damage to be so complete that it is unrecognizable. What could go beyond that scope of damage? He was being sarcastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 East Kansas looks like it could go soon - CU building Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Ok, im buying a leer jet..lol. There is a cell popping just NE of North Platte Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 East Kansas looks like it could go soon - CU building There's a bubble of 3km EHI near 18 not too far east of where those towers are festering. Mixed-layer cape over 6000j/kg under a highly sheared environment is just a powder keg in waiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Ok, im buying a leer jet..lol. There is a cell popping just NE of North Platte Was just going to mention that, going up pretty quickly too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 There's a bubble of 3km EHI near 18 not too far east of where those towers are festering. Mixed-layer cape over 6000j/kg under a highly sheared environment is just a powder keg in waiting. If that area goes then we'll have a real problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 East Kansas looks like it could go soon - CU building If forcing via the LLJ kicks in in that type of thermonuclear environment it will be utterly amazing to see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Was just going to mention that, going up pretty quickly too. Nice little meso developing already too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 little boundary east of ICT on radar.. looks like cu are going up as they cross it. second one might do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 little boundary east of ICT on radar.. looks like cu are going up as they cross it. second one might do it. I'll send you pics of the tornadoes. I already plan on freezing some hail for Patrick too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Latest SPC mesoanalysis shows SBCAPE of 7,500 j/kg between Wichita & Topeka. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Reposted severe weather matrix, The F values were not supposed to be displayed. Just percentages. Sorry guys for the inaccurate data. http://smartwxmodel.net What does over 100% confidence mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 I'm kinda waiting to see what this cell does near North Platte before I go after it. Sitting in Maxwell, NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 23Z Severe Analysis updated, Still showing an area from Topeka-Manhattan-Concordia-Lincoln, NE as the highest threat areas. with Imperial, NE area in another area. 23Z SFC CAPE around 3925 j/kg, LI's -10, 0-1KM EHI around 12, 0-1KM Shear around 50 knots, and 0-3KM CAPE 162 j/kg. Still seeing winds up to 80kts, hail up to 2.8" diameter. No F5/F6 this time , My TI index showing Imperial, North Platte, Topeka, Ogallala with best environment for Tornado at this moment. Updated analysis http://smartwxmodel.net Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 How confident my model forecast for the severe weather for that city, if it 100% then all 96 synoptic/mesoscale variables meet the minimum for severe weather, but does not take into account a strong cap, with will bust it. sometimes. What does over 100% confidence mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 I'm kinda waiting to see what this cell does near North Platte before I go after it. Sitting in Maxwell, NE. Reflectivity structure looks very nice, meso not really apparent at the base slice yet, but pretty nice down through 10kft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 If that is Kansas (which I'm assuming based off your location) that sure doesn't look to be struggling against the cap anymore. The HRRR has been very consistent with blowing up convection there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 If that is Kansas (which I'm assuming based off your location) that sure doesn't look to be struggling against the cap anymore. The HRRR has been very consistent with blowing up convection there. Yeah Ocean he's Kansas...McPherson is a nice city off I-35 between Wichita and Salina....BEAUTIFUL AREA....Love being stationed in Kansas....definitely looks like cap is gone like you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Hmmm, they are going after those cells in southern NE, which ar ein higher LCL's, but look good on radar. Mine doesnt look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 How confident my model forecast for the severe weather for that city, if it 100% then all 96 synoptic/mesoscale variables meet the minimum for severe weather, but does not take into account a strong cap, with will bust it. sometimes. Looks like it needs a 97th variable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Hmmm, they are going after those cells in southern NE, which ar ein higher LCL's, but look good on radar. Mine doesnt look good. That southern cell northeast of North Platte is getting close to baseball size hail by my interrogation. Nearly 75 dBZ to 25kft! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 The north platte cell trying to get a hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 That southern cell northeast of North Platte is getting close to baseball size hail by my interrogation. Nearly 75 dBZ to 25kft! Hail is big enough that it is not only sending a hail spike down radial but across radials as well (to the west). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Hmmm, they are going after those cells in southern NE, which ar ein higher LCL's, but look good on radar. Mine doesnt look good. Where are you at LB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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