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June 17th-22nd severe threat


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Lets get these cell on the souther end of that boundary in better moisture! Also, Manhattan, KS =F6...if F5 is finger of God, what is F6?

I thought an F6/EF6 tornado would only be hypothetical. I mean an F5/EF5 tornado causes damage to be so complete that it is unrecognizable. What could go beyond that scope of damage?

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23Z Severe Analysis updated, Still showing an area from Topeka-Manhattan-Concordia-Lincoln, NE as the highest threat areas. with Imperial, NE area in another area. 23Z SFC CAPE around 3925 j/kg, LI's -10, 0-1KM EHI around 12, 0-1KM Shear around 50 knots, and 0-3KM CAPE 162 j/kg. Still seeing winds up to 80kts, hail up to 2.8" diameter. No F5/F6 this time ;), My TI index showing Imperial, North Platte, Topeka, Ogallala with best environment for Tornado at this moment. Updated analysis http://smartwxmodel.net

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If that is Kansas (which I'm assuming based off your location) that sure doesn't look to be struggling against the cap anymore. The HRRR has been very consistent with blowing up convection there.

Yeah Ocean he's Kansas...McPherson is a nice city off I-35 between Wichita and Salina....BEAUTIFUL AREA....Love being stationed in Kansas....definitely looks like cap is gone like you said.

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How confident my model forecast for the severe weather for that city, if it 100% then all 96 synoptic/mesoscale variables meet the minimum for severe weather, but does not take into account a strong cap, with will bust it. sometimes.

Looks like it needs a 97th variable.

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Hmmm, they are going after those cells in southern NE, which ar ein higher LCL's, but look good on radar. Mine doesnt look good. :(

That southern cell northeast of North Platte is getting close to baseball size hail by my interrogation. Nearly 75 dBZ to 25kft!

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