gusfront Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Is this today or tomorrow JoMo?? And also what does it look lik for us monday and tuesday here in jln JoMo??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Is this today or tomorrow JoMo?? And also what does it look lik for us monday and tuesday here in jln JoMo??? That's today but we're capped with no forcing so our chances of getting a storm to form are slim to none. Monday evening it looks like a line of storms will move through here. And maybe some more storms on Tuesday depending on timing of the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 19, 2011 Author Share Posted June 19, 2011 http://www.spc.noaa..../md/md1299.html don't see the pink contour of 6000 j/kg in a MD image too often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 19, 2011 Author Share Posted June 19, 2011 SPC Mesoanalysis is showing 7500 SBCAPE in SE KS, amazing. Large pool of instability for storms along the KS/NE border. Ya its pretty crazy to say the least , can't remember I've seen that much juice with great shear for supercells Also LI's to -14 in that area with sup comp at 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 don't see the pink contour of 6000 j/kg in a MD image too often Well when you're pushing 100/70... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 I left the NERN KS target, in fear of the cap, but if something does go, its gonna be hell in that area! Decided to try something new, and go uplsope today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 19, 2011 Author Share Posted June 19, 2011 the cu field around MCK in southern/southwest NE looks pretty decent but ofcourse the better low-level moisture is further east along the NE/KS border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 I left the NERN KS target, in fear of the cap, but if something does go, its gonna be hell in that area! Decided to try something new, and go uplsope today. HRRR is painting some nasty weather for KC...and more rain for the Missouri River Basin where the levees have been overran in Atchinson County, MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 the cu field around MCK in southern/southwest NE looks pretty decent but ofcourse the better low-level moisture is further east along the NE/KS border. Theta-e is still pretty good in that area, especially just south of North Platte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Theta-e is still pretty good in that area, especially just south of North Platte. Imperial over to Hayes Center looks interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 19, 2011 Author Share Posted June 19, 2011 alot of good porn from the DSM office regarding tomorrow's potential and also low topped supercells and tornadoes on tuesday as well.. A WEAKENING MCS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING BY 12Z TOMORROW MORNING. THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS MCS...AND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IT LEAVES BEHIND WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE IA/SD/NE BORDER EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE BEST H850 THETA_E ADVECTION ACROSS THE IA/MN BORDER. THESE LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ELEVATED...WITH MINIMAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH A STRAY WIND OR HAIL REPORT IS POSSIBLE. HAVE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH TO REFLECT THE NORTHERN TRACK SUPPORTED IN BY THE QPF PLACEMENT IN THE 19.12Z GFS..ECMWF..AND NAM. HOWEVER...EXPANDED POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT ACROSS NEBRASKA SUNDAY EVENING...AND MAY STILL BE AROUND BY THE START OF THE PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS AND INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES SHOULD CONGEAL AN TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS THE JET STREAK ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. ANY RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH H700 TEMPS OF 14-16C WILL ESTABLISH A CAP ACROSS CWA. AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER FROM 700-500MB...COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE WITH SBCAPES OF 3000-4000J/KG IN PLACE BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE REALIZED BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH THE HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE PV ANOMALY WILL DYNAMICALLY DESTABILIZE THE MID LEVELS AND ERODE THE CAP. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE WIND PROFILE TO DIAGNOSE THE CONVECTIVE MODE. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK WILL BE SURGING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL KS...EASTERN NE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 50-60KTS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. MEANWHILE 6HR PRESSURE FALLS OVER EASTERN NE/SD WILL RESULT IN SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. SOUNDINGS SHOWS VEERING WIND PROFILE IN THE LOWER LEVELS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES GIVEN THAT THE STORMS WILL BE SURFACE BASED. THE HIGHEST SHR VALUES WILL BE ALONG THE WARM FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF IOWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY ENVISION THE SCENARIO UNFOLDING WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE I80 CORRIDOR BY 18Z...HWY20 BY 21Z...AND TOWARD HWY18 BY 24Z. GIVEN THE MODEL TRENDS WHICH HAVE INTENSIFIED THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY AND SLOWED IT DOWN...DONT SEE THE WARM FRONT SURGING NORTHWARD INTO MINNESOTA. ALONG THAT SAME LINE OF THOUGHT...FEEL THAT THE CAP WILL MOST LIKELY HOLD UNTIL AT LEAST 21Z...WITH CONVECTION BREAKING OUT IN THE AREA OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUPERCELLULAR AND COULD QUICKLY TURN SEVERE. MEANWHILE ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ALONG THE DRY LINE IN EASTERN NE/KS...AND MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL INITIATE AS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...AND LIKELY GROW UPSCALE INTO A LINEAR COMPLEX WITH EMBEDDED HP SUPERCELLS. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY LAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. ON TUESDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST...MEANING THE DYNAMICS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF HEATING THAT TAKES PLACE...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM WATERLOO SHOW SKINNY CAPE WITH VEERING WIND PROFILES INDICATING THE POTENTIAL OF LOW TOP SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WOULD SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 22Z Smart Severe Analysis showing highest threat areas in and near Manhattan, KS to Imperial, NE to Topeka, KS to Concordia, KS. Values in this area SFC CAPE 3400 j/kg, LI's -10, 0-1KM SRH 350 m/s, 0-3KM Shear around 50 knots. Right now I have Imperial, NE with the highest chances of tornado potential, with a 92% on the TI index. Outside of this seeing potential convective gusts 81knots, and hail potential of up to 1.8" in diameter. More detailed city analysis has been uploaded. http://smartwxmodel.net Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 22Z Smart Severe Analysis showing highest threat areas in and near Manhattan, KS to Imperial, NE to Topeka, KS to Concordia, KS. Values in this area SFC CAPE 3400 j/kg, LI's -10, 0-1KM SRH 350 m/s, 0-3KM Shear around 50 knots. Right now I have Imperial, NE with the highest chances of tornado potential, with a 92% on the TI index. Outside of this seeing potential convective gusts 81knots, and hail potential of up to 1.8" in diameter. More detailed city analysis has been uploaded. http://smartwxmodel.net Manhattan, KS is screwed: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Cell NE of North Platte on that boundary just shot up to a 1.50 hail marker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Imperial over to Hayes Center looks interesting. Wow people in Eastern Kansas better be careful where they throw their cigarettes. If that cap goes, all hell breaks loose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 19, 2011 Author Share Posted June 19, 2011 Manhattan, KS is screwed: Bahahaha, what a "smart" model... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 19, 2011 Author Share Posted June 19, 2011 90/77 and 89/78 in northeast KS along I-70.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Cell NE of North Platte on that boundary just shot up to a 1.50 hail marker. Lets get these cell on the souther end of that boundary in better moisture! Also, Manhattan, KS =F6...if F5 is finger of God, what is F6? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Reposted severe weather matrix, The F values were not supposed to be displayed. Just percentages. Sorry guys for the inaccurate data. http://smartwxmodel.net Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Hope they get a warn on this 2.83 hail cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 I think the cap holds here...it's brutal outside right now and I just started the grill #masochism Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Hope they get a warn on this 2.83 hail cell. The cumulus is starting to grow tall enough around Imperial to show up on the LNX 88D. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 The cumulus is starting to grow tall enough around Imperial to show up on the LNX 88D. Wow wish I was there to get some softball hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Wow wish I was there to get some softball hail. Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 The CO/NE area stuff is messy on the whole so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Why? Love chasing storms with big hail....usually a pre-cursor to tornadic development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 19, 2011 Author Share Posted June 19, 2011 The CO/NE area stuff is messy on the whole so far That stuff isn't going to do anything, looks cold underneath and outflowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Yep, looks like they are starting to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Love chasing storms with big hail....usually a pre-cursor to tornadic development. To each his own, but once they get above ping pongs they are just scary instead of interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Looks like we have initiation of cells in far southwestern Nebraska, south of Imperial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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