TheWeatherPimp Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Just starting to look at that myself. Plenty of instability and shear available tomorrow. The GFS at least is showing 0-1 km shear of up to 40 kt, so strong tornado potential. Shear vectors won't be totally parallel to the cold front/dryline, but there could be some potential to develop more quickly into a line. Interestingly, the farther east you move down the warm front the more right movers will have the propensity to travel due east or east southeast, might be something to watch. Yeah the warm front could be a nice play tomorrow across Eastern Iowa into Illinois Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1227 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z ..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN NEB...SERN SD SRN MN...AND MUCH OF IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MS AND OH VALLEYS INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND CAROLINAS... ...ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY EXPECTED MONDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY... ..SYNOPSIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG DEVELOPING LOW/UPPER VORTICITY MAX DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THIS IS AMPLIFYING THE WRN US LONG WAVE TROUGH AS AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY RETROGRADES FROM SASK INTO ERN ALTA. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT INDICATING THE GREAT BASIN LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW INITIALLY OVER WRN KS AT 20/12Z IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS ERN NEB...WHILE A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD FROM THE LOW SURGES EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OVERTAKES A LEADING DRY LINE OVER PARTS OF KS AND OK. STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE A CAPPING INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG EML IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE PLAINS WARM SECTOR UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHILE ELEVATED STORMS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVING NWD OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY. ..ERN NEB...SERN SD...SRN MN...AND MUCH OF IA STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THIS REGION DURING THE DAY WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK TRANSLATING THROUGH THE SRN/ERN QUADS OF THE PLAINS UPPER LOW. ELEVATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING NORTH OF THE LOW AND WARM FRONT DURING THE MORNING WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL WITH STRONGER CELLS. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY BY MID AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL/NERN NEB INTO SERN SD...SRN MN AND NRN IA WHERE BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR AS THE UPPER JET STREAK APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...CONTINUED DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LOW AND COLD FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN THE CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO FORM ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER ERN NEB. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO PARTS OF IA DURING THE EVENING. THE FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND WITH INITIAL STORMS NEAR THE COLD FRONT...WITH A THREAT FOR SEVERAL STRONG TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AFTER DARK WITH CONTINUING THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ..CENTRAL/ERN KS SWD INTO OK AND NRN TX STORM ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER ERN KS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT COUPLED WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WEAKENS THE CAP. MODELS SUGGEST A RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A LINE WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER CONVECTIVE INITIATION GIVEN THE PARALLEL ORIENTATION OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR VECTORS AND THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL AFTER SUNSET. FARTHER SOUTH...SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL WILL BECOME GRADUALLY MORE CONDITIONAL WITH SWD EXTENT ACROSS OK INTO NRN TX AS DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM THE AREA. HOWEVER...THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING INITIAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE MOST LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS IN OK...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONG STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES. ...MID MS VALLEY INTO UPPER OH VALLEY AND THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND CAROLINAS... ONE OR TWO FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS/S ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD/ESEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH MODERATELY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD WITH TIME AND REACH THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE MORE FAVORABLE DIURNAL PERIOD FOR SEVERE SYSTEMS TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE HIGH RES WINDOW WRF MODEL RUNS SHOWING BOWING CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS AROUND 21/00Z. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE REGIONS. ..WEISS.. 06/19/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 19, 2011 Author Share Posted June 19, 2011 Yeah the warm front could be a nice play tomorrow across Eastern Iowa into Illinois I have doubts about the warm front firing during the daytime, with such a strong EML/H7 thermal ridge I'd rather be further west near the sfc low and better forcing near the NE/IA border. Looking for another day of sea breeze thunderstorms later today/evening in Orlando. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 I have doubts about the warm front firing during the daytime, with such a strong EML/H7 thermal ridge I'd rather be further west near the sfc low and better forcing near the NE/IA border. Looking for another day of sea breeze thunderstorms later today/evening in Orlando. the nw quad of the mod for tomorrow seems to be best stacked with various parameters and in a pretty sweet spot for the 500 trough. might find a hotel between sioux falls and sioux city tonight.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 New 12z WRF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 the nw quad of the mod for tomorrow seems to be best stacked with various parameters and in a pretty sweet spot for the 500 trough. might find a hotel between sioux falls and sioux city tonight.. Good luck navigating the Missouri River Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Good luck navigating the Missouri River Yeah, Ian I don't know if you're serious about going, but keep in mind that the flooding on the Missouri is so bad that large portion of I-29 are actually closed because of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Good luck navigating the Missouri River ahh yes. guess i'll rethink my trip.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Yeah, Ian I don't know if you're serious about going, but keep in mind that the flooding on the Missouri is so bad that large portion of I-29 are actually closed because of it. na, just looking at maps and not knowing the local area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 ahh yes. guess i'll rethink my trip.. Get your ass on a flight to IND and I'll pick you up in the morning haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Closer to Sioux Falls should be OK as it's further from the river. It's the Sioux City region (and south) that is problematic and would require highways and backroads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Get your ass on a flight to IND and I'll pick you up in the morning haha In my next job I'll have to make money so I could actually do stuff like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 I could be wrong, but as of right now, I cant imagine the NE KS stuff will be surface-based. Something like yesterday... maybe a couple more tornadoes if the parameters are strong enough and the storms fire early enough before the CIN builds in later in the evening. And plus the HRRR shows it, and the HRRR hasn't really done well this year... I'd consider that a bad sign if you're a chaser XD Latest HRRR has pushed any potential northward into the Omaha area, leaving KS/MO high and dry. Main focus continues to be from NE. Colorado to South-Central Nebraska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Latest HRRR has pushed any potential northward into the Omaha area, leaving KS/MO high and dry. Main focus continues to be from NE. Colorado to South-Central Nebraska. For what it's worth, the latest HRRR has the storm in northeast Colorado (maybe one county too far east). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Looks like the first sup of the day is firing near the tri-state area of CO/WY/NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1295 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0209 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO THROUGH SWRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 191909Z - 192115Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM NERN CO THROUGH SWRN NEB THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY INITIAL THREATS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN NEB WWD INTO NERN CO TO NEAR DENVER. A DRYLINE SEGMENT EXTENDS SEWD FROM THE LOW INTO SERN CO. A SUPERCELL HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ALONG THE NERN CO/WRN NEB BORDER. GIVEN SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S...THIS STORM IS PROBABLY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...BUT IS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATE WITH WARM SECTOR OVER NERN CO IS STILL CAPPED AND TIMING OF ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...A MODEST ELY UPSLOPE COMPONENT EXISTS NORTH OF SURFACE LOW OVER THE NERN CO FRONT RANGE...AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN INCLUDING THE PALMER DIVIDE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. LEAD IMPULSE IS CURRENTLY LIFTING NE OF THIS AREA INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS...BUT ERN CO WILL BEGIN TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM UPSTREAM VORT MAX BY EARLY EVENING. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 35-45 KT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING. ..DIAL.. 06/19/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 WTF? Also...MD out for NE/CO/WY area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 north platte/broken bow area getting pretty primed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 north platte/broken bow area getting pretty primed Yessir, about 40 miles out from North Platte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Yessir, about 40 miles out from North Platte. Tongue of higher cape moving north toward the area. Any clouds look temporary. I saw brettjrob near Wichita few hrs ago headed north on SN... Wonder which way he went. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 He better hurry...lol. Lots of deep moisture convergence in North Platte too: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 I think Denver is due for something strange. The weather has been too quite this year in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 New outlook is out. They moved the MDT a smidge north, as well as the 10% tor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 You can a line of cumulus pushing nwwd in Nebraska, demarcating the return of higher theta-e air behind the morning convection. Showing up on KLNX 88D as well, but progress is slowing down as showers and storms are continuing just to the northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 I think Denver is due for something strange. The weather has been too quite this year in that area. If you run a loop of a radar with good resolution you'll see that there is very nice convergence and low level turning of the flow just southeast of the city. Will not be surprised at all if the storms that are trying to form there drop a couple tornadoes as they move out of the foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 He better hurry...lol. Lots of deep moisture convergence in North Platte too: wonder if that area will shift north more.. warm front making decent progress north still... not terribly far out if it continues. when is initiation expected? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 You can a line of cumulus pushing nwwd in Nebraska, demarcating the return of higher theta-e air behind the morning convection. Showing up on KLNX 88D as well, but progress is slowing down as showers and storms are continuing just to the northwest. That must be the boundary the SPC is referring too in their latest outlook. They say storms will fire along that. Seems to me like they are going to fire off the mountains in CO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 That must be the boundary the SPC is referring too in their latest outlook. They say storms will fire along that. Seems to me like they are going to fire off the mountains in CO... Storms are already getting going in Colorado over the foothills, but I think along the boundary in Nebraska once the forcing arrives in earnest you could see some nice storms fire as well. Capping will have to be overcome there versus Colorado. Dewpoints in the mid 50s along the eastern slopes is very high for that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 http://www.spc.noaa..../md/md1299.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 SPC Mesoanalysis is showing 7500 SBCAPE in SE KS, amazing. Large pool of instability for storms along the KS/NE border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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