Stebo Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Watching it down here...quite a few high wind reports coming in with the bow in the line. Yeah with that couplet, just above the apex of the bow as it has surged Eastward. That's where the worst of it has been it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... FRANKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... HAMILTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... SOUTHERN WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... WHITE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS... GALLATIN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... SALINE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... WILLIAMSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 500 AM CDT. * AT 416 AM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF MOUNT VERNON TO MCLEANSBORO TO CREAL SPRINGS..AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. Someone found the brake lever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Updated LSR 0400 AM TSTM WND DMG DU QUOIN 38.00N 89.24W 06/19/2011 PERRY IL EMERGENCY MNGR *** 1 INJ *** ...UPDATE AT 430 AM...CAMPER BLOWN OVER WITH 3 INDIVIDUALS TRAPPED INSIDE LOCATED AT THE DU QUOIN STATE FAIRGROUNDS. INDIVIDUALS HAD TO BE EXTRACTED BY FIRE/RESCUE. ONE PERSON SLIGHTLY INJURED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Severe Warning for Evansville for >80mph moving E at 50mph and Severe Warning for Paducah for >70 moving SE at 40mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapitalKid Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 TORNADO WARNING KYC229-191315- /O.NEW.KLMK.TO.W.0095.110619T1250Z-110619T1315Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 850 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY... * UNTIL 915 AM EDT... * AT 847 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR VALLEY HILL...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. * THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT... SPRINGFIELD... THOMPSONVILLE AND WILLISBURG... JENKINSVILLE AND MACKVILLE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 19, 2011 Author Share Posted June 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Nothing like 8700 J/kg of CAPE forecasted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Hmmm, looks like I need to go to North Platte eh?southeast NE doesn't look bad though either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 19, 2011 Author Share Posted June 19, 2011 southeast NE/northeast KS is the place to watch IMO after 0z once the LLJ gets cranking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 southeast NE/northeast KS is the place to watch IMO after 0z once the LLJ gets cranking Yeah, thats really where im considering, seems like the best bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 19, 2011 Author Share Posted June 19, 2011 Yeah, thats really where im considering, seems like the best bet. I should also say once LCL's lower near dark as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 19, 2011 Author Share Posted June 19, 2011 These numbers are overdone some due to the RUC overdoing instability but don't think I can remember a forecasted 0-1 EHI of 19.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Tuesday and Wednesday are starting to look very good for the lower GL region imo DTX THINGS CHANGE DRAMATICALLY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. DESPITE SBCAPE VALUES BUILDING TO 2-3 J/G FAIRLY EARLY IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY...A HEALTHY CAP OF 100 J/KG WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS CAP SHOULD HOLD OFF THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS CAP ERODING TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH COOLING AT 800MB AS CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT ACTS AS A FOCUS FOR THE CONVECTION TO FIRE. LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SBCAPE VALUES APPEAR MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DURING THIS PERIOD...AS NOTED IN THE SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK PUTTING THE AREA UNDER SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS PERIOD VERY CLOSELY FOR SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WITH THE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE WARM FRONT WILL RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT ON TUESDAY...WITH MUCH HIGHER POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 That zone from Concordia KS to Kansas City looks hot later this afternoon/evening. Really hoping we don't see anything to violent in that zone. Coincidentally tomorrow looks good across a good bit of Central/Western Iowa. Probably a decent shot at some good tornadoes early on then probably some kind of a nice squall line screaming Eastward later on with a lot of damaging wind potentially. But the stuff on late Friday didn't quite go as planned so we'll see.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 19, 2011 Author Share Posted June 19, 2011 pretty much shows the two targest nicely...upslope in northeast CO and southwest NE and the dryline bulge/warm front in northeast KS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 19, 2011 Author Share Posted June 19, 2011 currently doing a hand analysis of a 16z sfc map, will try to get a pic up in a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 That zone from Concordia KS to Kansas City looks hot later this afternoon/evening. Really hoping we don't see anything to violent in that zone. Coincidentally tomorrow looks good across a good bit of Central/Western Iowa. Probably a decent shot at some good tornadoes early on then probably some kind of a nice squall line screaming Eastward later on with a lot of damaging wind potentially. But the stuff on late Friday didn't quite go as planned so we'll see.... Just starting to look at that myself. Plenty of instability and shear available tomorrow. The GFS at least is showing 0-1 km shear of up to 40 kt, so strong tornado potential. Shear vectors won't be totally parallel to the cold front/dryline, but there could be some potential to develop more quickly into a line. Interestingly, the farther east you move down the warm front the more right movers will have the propensity to travel due east or east southeast, might be something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 id be worried about not getting a ton going before dark today on the eastern play... tomorrow looks better imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 I'm back in Lawrence now. Hopefully all this talk about NE KS is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 19, 2011 Author Share Posted June 19, 2011 gosh is that sexy and the 15z RUC is now forecasting 9200 j/kg, highest I've seen so far this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 I'm back in Lawrence now. Hopefully all this talk about NE KS is correct. Get any good cheese? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 gosh is that sexy and the 15z RUC is now forecasting 9200 j/kg, highest I've seen so far this year Theta-e ridge, boom! Currently in Lincoln, NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 I could be wrong, but as of right now, I cant imagine the NE KS stuff will be surface-based. Something like yesterday... maybe a couple more tornadoes if the parameters are strong enough and the storms fire early enough before the CIN builds in later in the evening. And plus the HRRR shows it, and the HRRR hasn't really done well this year... I'd consider that a bad sign if you're a chaser XD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 These numbers are overdone some due to the RUC overdoing instability but don't think I can remember a forecasted 0-1 EHI of 19.. Other than high LCL's, these are some Tuscaloosa type parameters on the RUC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 gosh is that sexy and the 15z RUC is now forecasting 9200 j/kg, highest I've seen so far this year Very impressive. If anything goes in that environment it will be monstrous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 I could be wrong, but as of right now, I cant imagine the NE KS stuff will be surface-based. Something like yesterday... maybe a couple more tornadoes if the parameters are strong enough and the storms fire early enough before the CIN builds in later in the evening. And plus the HRRR shows it, and the HRRR hasn't really done well this year... I'd consider that a bad sign if you're a chaser XD You have to be careful with the HRRR. Like any model it is just guidance and not truth, even though it paints some pretty pictures with respect to storm scale. June typically should be a tough month for the HRRR as forcing is weaker. However, this is an unseasonably strong trough digging into the Plains. This should be a scenario where the HRRR is more useful (likewise for tomorrow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Other than high LCL's, these are some Tuscaloosa type parameters on the RUC. That event had considerably stronger winds above 400mb, but this event has considerable more instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Tuesday and Wednesday are starting to look very good for the lower GL region imo Yes definitely. IMO even if we don't get widespread severe storms, I think it's rather likely that most of us will get multiple rounds of convection between tomorrow afternoon and Wednesday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Get any good cheese? Smoked string cheese, some habenero jack, havarti dill, and some pepper jelly. Best cheese factory ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Smoked string cheese, some habenero jack, havarti dill, and some pepper jelly. Best cheese factory ever. Habanero jack cheese FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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