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June 17th-22nd severe threat


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Thanks

I had him on for a bit earlier. Will tune back in, Surprised the Springfield stations don't stream more.

KY3 streams their radar. Its straight from the on air feed. No audio. Their radar is located SE of Springfied. The NWS radar is to the NW.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO

1207 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

NORTHERN WEBSTER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

SOUTHEASTERN POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

SOUTHERN DALLAS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

SOUTHWESTERN LACLEDE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 1245 AM CDT.

* AT 1202 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED

TORNADIC STORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF

HALF WAY TO 9 MILES WEST OF FAIR GROVE TO 10 MILES WEST OF

BASSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

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And shes in the new TOR. Of course shes not answering the phone either. I hope they went to the storm shelter. I'm not overly worried, but she lives in a tralier (like 75% of the ozarks) so I think that allows me some extra concern.

I'm staying with one of my friends at BSU tonight - hoping some of the storms at least make it up this way later so we get a good lightning show.

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Tuesday looks like a potential if not probable moderate risk day imo. Although we see some filling tendency with the surface low and slight weakening of wind fields with time, it should still be more than sufficient for a well organized severe episode. Going to have to wait a while to ascertain the level of each threat but the damaging wind potential jumps out at me given some dry air aloft, moderate/strong instability and magnitude of the deep layer shear. We might end up seeing a few moderates in a row by the time this is done.

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So, since I lost one of my regular chase partners for the season...

I am looking to potentially chase on Monday and Tuesday (Staying in Iowa Monday night). I have 2-3 seats open for anyone who would like to come along (Split costs and are willing to meet in this general area - N. Illinois).

If you're interested, reply to this post or send me a PM.

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SGF: Eldridge [Laclede Co, MO] emergency mngr reports TSTM WND DMG at 12:55 AM CDT -- tree on a house in eldrige at hwy e and mohave dr.

SGF: 3 N Niangua [Webster Co, MO] public reports FUNNEL CLOUD at 12:38 AM CDT -- public reported funnel cloud just north of the city of niangua.

SGF: Lebanon [Laclede Co, MO] amateur radio reports TSTM WND GST of E60 MPH at 12:55 AM CDT --

SGF: Fair Grove [Greene Co, MO] emergency mngr reports TSTM WND DMG at 12:15 AM CDT -- damage to roof of kum and go in fair grove. (I love those gas stations)

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So, since I lost one of my regular chase partners for the season...

I am looking to potentially chase on Monday and Tuesday (Staying in Iowa Monday night). I have 2-3 seats open for anyone who would like to come along (Split costs and are willing to meet in this general area - N. Illinois).

If you're interested, reply to this post or send me a PM.

Good Lord, I would love to, but I'd be a zombie by the time I got up there after work. I'll take a rain check =]

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I am a touch surprised only 15% risk areas for Tuesday especially with the day 4 area yesterday, and the discussion talked up favorably. To be honest when the day 3 came out originally for tomorrow it was also a 15% after having a day 4 area, kind of odd back and forth there, but I digress.

day3prob_0730.gif

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0224 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT

LAKES...OH VALLEY INTO THE SRN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT REGARDING THE EWD EVOLUTION OF UPPER TROUGH

INTO THE MS VALLEY...WITH CENTER OF MID LEVEL CIRCULATION EXPECTED

TO SETTLE INTO SRN MN. WHILE THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO STALL

TEMPORARILY OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY THE ATTENDANT SFC CYCLONE WILL

EASE BENEATH THE MID LEVEL LOW SUCH THAT THE OVERALL SYSTEM WILL

BECOME RATHER STACKED. NET RESULT WILL BE A BROAD ZONE OF

MODERATE-STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL EXTEND FROM THE SRN PLAINS

INTO THE OH VALLEY...JUXTAPOSED WITH A FAIRLY MOIST/BUOYANT AIR MASS

CHARACTERIZED BY 2000-3000 J/KG SBCAPE.

GIVEN THAT SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL COOLING WILL OVERSPREAD THE

ATTENDANT COLD FRONT IT APPEARS THE CAP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR

SHOULD BE A BIT WEAKER THAN DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD. AS A

RESULT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE NOTED AHEAD OF THE WIND

SHIFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY...SWWD INTO NCNTRL TX WHERE

INTENSE HEAT WILL FORCE HIGH BASED SEVERE DEVELOPMENT. OF MORE

CONCERN WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS FROM JUST EAST OF THE SFC

LOW OVER SRN MN...ESEWD ACROSS WI INTO LOWER MI. THIS ZONE OF

INTEREST WILL BE DRIVEN IN LARGE PART BY WARM FRONTAL CONVERGENCE

AND MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR POSSIBLE TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.

OTHERWISE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEARS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR POSSIBLE

SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE SLIGHT RISK REGION POSING A

THREAT FOR AT LEAST LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY

DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

..DARROW.. 06/19/2011

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO

228 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN IRON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

SOUTHERN STE. GENEVIEVE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

ST. FRANCOIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 315 AM CDT

* AT 227 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS

STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES WEST OF IRONDALE...OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF

POTOSI...AND MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

BISMARCK...LEADWOOD...BONNE TERRE...DESLOGE...FARMINGTON...

BELLEVIEW...IRONDALE...IRON MOUNTAIN...PARK HILLS...KNOB LICK...

ROCKY RIDGE...WEINGARTEN...COFFMAN...WOMAC...CALEDONIA...

FRANKCLAY...DOE RUN...LEADINGTON...LIBERTYVILLE AND RIVER AUX

VASES.

Tracking pretty close to Farmington Missouri.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO

256 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTH CENTRAL MONROE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...

RANDOLPH COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...

EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

STE. GENEVIEVE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

ST. FRANCOIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 330 AM CDT

* AT 252 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF RAIN-WRAPPED

TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO WIDESPREAD STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE.

THESE DANGEROUS STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6

MILES SOUTHEAST OF CRYSTAL CITY TO KNOB LICK...AND MOVING EAST AT

65 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

STE. GENEVIEVE...CHESTER...ROCKY RIDGE...BLOOMSDALE...WEINGARTEN...

COFFMAN...WOMAC...ST. MARY...EVANSVILLE...BREMEN...STEELEVILLE...

PERCY...KIDD...RIVER AUX VASES...PRAIRIE DU ROCHER...KELLOGG...

MINNITH...MODOC...RUMA AND ROOTS.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY

300 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

NORTHERN BOLLINGER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

NORTHWESTERN CAPE GIRARDEAU COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 345 AM CDT.

* AT 258 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN

EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING

FROM 18 MILES NORTH OF PERRYVILLE TO 24 MILES WEST OF PATTON..AND

MOVING EAST AT 90 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...

PERRYVILLE...

PATTON...

AVA...

PINCKNEYVILLE...

GRAND TOWER...

ELKVILLE...

DU QUOIN...

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Hope Beau stays safe...that's a nasty line.

Yeah you aren't kidding there

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY

325 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

ILC077-145-MOC017-031-157-190845-

/O.CON.KPAH.SV.W.0278.000000T0000Z-110619T0845Z/

JACKSON IL-PERRY IL-BOLLINGER MO-CAPE GIRARDEAU MO-PERRY MO-

325 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 AM CDT

FOR PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND JACKSON COUNTY IN

SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND PERRY...NORTHWESTERN CAPE GIRARDEAU AND

NORTHERN BOLLINGER COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

AT 321 AM CDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS REPORTED CAPABLE

OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 90 MPH. THESE STORMS

WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PINCKNEYVILLE TO

PATTON...MOVING EAST AT 95 MPH. THE PERRY MISSOURI COUNTY SHERIFF

REPORTED THAT POWER WAS OUT TO PART OF PERRYVILLE...BUT IT WAS

UNKNOWN WHAT CAUSED THE OUTAGE AT THIS TIME.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE AVA...TAMAROA...OLD

APPLETON...MILLERSVILLE...OAK RIDGE...VERGENNES...DU

QUOIN...ALTENBURG...GORHAM...POCAHONTAS...GRAND TOWER AND ELKVILLE.

This thing is just picking up steam even more.

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For the Perryville part of the line.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY

328 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

CENTRAL PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 400 AM CDT.

* AT 326 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 10 MILES

SOUTHWEST OF PINCKNEYVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...

PINCKNEYVILLE...

DU QUOIN...

TAMAROA...

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY

346 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

ILC055-065-077-081-145-165-191-199-MOC157-190930-

/O.CON.KPAH.SV.W.0279.000000T0000Z-110619T0930Z/

WILLIAMSON IL-SALINE IL-JACKSON IL-FRANKLIN IL-PERRY IL-HAMILTON IL-

JEFFERSON IL-WAYNE IL-PERRY MO-

346 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 AM CDT

FOR WESTERN WAYNE...JEFFERSON...HAMILTON...PERRY AND FRANKLIN

COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND JACKSON...WESTERN SALINE AND

WILLIAMSON COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHEASTERN PERRY

COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

AT 344 AM CDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS REPORTED CAPABLE

OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH. THESE STORMS

WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF

WOODLAWN TO 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR LAKE AREA...MOVING EAST AT 60

MPH.

A SPOTTER REPORTED 83 MPH WINDS JUST WEST OF DU QUION ILLINOIS.

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AT 321 AM CDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS REPORTED CAPABLE

OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 90 MPH. THESE STORMS

WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PINCKNEYVILLE TO

PATTON...MOVING EAST AT 95 MPH. THE PERRY MISSOURI COUNTY SHERIFF

REPORTED THAT POWER WAS OUT TO PART OF PERRYVILLE...BUT IT WAS

UNKNOWN WHAT CAUSED THE OUTAGE AT THIS TIME.

Am I reading that right? Its 5am and my eyes hurt.

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Am I reading that right? Its 5am and my eyes hurt.

Yes, that part of the line has been moving East at roughly 70-90mph for the last 2-3 hours. With that section there has been a persistent couplet for a while with periodic tornado warnings like this one just issued:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY

411 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

NORTHWESTERN HAMILTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 445 AM CDT.

* AT 407 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 14 MILES WEST OF

MCLEANSBORO...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...

MCLEANSBORO...

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