Amped Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 off the 21z SREF tomorrow.. monday.. Signifigant tornado ingredients = Track of the 500mb low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 off the 21z SREF Yes, lets see what tomorrow holds. I hope it doesn't either: A. Congeal into an MCS too quickly or B. Initiate wayyyy uplsope, cause im not going to extreme NE panhandle/WY and C. Any tornadoes that occur are out in an open prairie land, with no structures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 1006 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHERN MARIES COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI... * UNTIL 1045 PM CDT. * AT 1001 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A TORNADO 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF VIENNA...OR 22 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LINN...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BELLE AND VIENNA. IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE...AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Yes, lets see what tomorrow holds. I hope it doesn't either: A. Congeal into an MCS too quickly or B. Initiate wayyyy uplsope, cause im not going to extreme NE panhandle/WY and C. Any tornadoes that occur are out in an open prairie land, with no structures. That's my biggest fear right now, actually. I've seen too many days like this where the parameters look maximized well out into the Plains, so everyone hones in on that area, but ultimately upslope along the Front Range is the only initiating mechanism and tornadoes still occur there despite the seemingly-inferior environment (2009-06-05 and 2010-06-10 come to mind). It kind of looked like the 12z WRF-NNM this morning was hinting along those lines... bah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Impressive environment in the NE OK/SE KS/SW MO... T/Td spreads ~10F & lowering (widespread 85/75 values with winds backed strongly to the SE), MLCAPE of around 3500 J/kg, ESRH of around 500-600 m2s2. Saving grace is that these storms are not rooted at the sfc, although we'll see what happens as they enter a region of lower LPL heights further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 That's my biggest fear right now, actually. I've seen too many days like this where the parameters look maximized well out into the Plains, so everyone hones in on that area, but ultimately upslope along the Front Range is the only initiating mechanism and tornadoes still occur there despite the seemingly-inferior environment (2009-06-05 and 2010-06-10 come to mind). LCL's are higher that way, but I dont know much about upslope stuff. LCL's are usually measured from the sfc, so I would think regular rules apply, yet you still get tornadoes in 1500m+ out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Helicity Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Again I ask my self why this isn't tornado warned... The environment is right, and from being out in these storms they sure as hell ain't elevated..... 500 ESRH 750 LCL.....but I don't get paid to do this so my opinoin doesn't matter too much but....it deserves a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 that one looks like it's going to gust to the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Helicity Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 that one looks like it's going to gust to the south I would tend to agree, that is definitely going to be the dominant trend for as things contunue to progress, but idk, I still think it should be warned. You can even start to see a small OFB on radar returns now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 off the 21z SREF tomorrow.. monday.. I've looked all over the web for a site that allows me to search the sigtor maps. Where can they be found? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Stolze Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Streaming lightning show from one of my webcams at my home.... http://ofallonweather.org/chase/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 I've looked all over the web for a site that allows me to search the sigtor maps. Where can they be found? Severe weather section http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 I would tend to agree, that is definitely going to be the dominant trend for as things contunue to progress, but idk, I still think it should be warned. You can even start to see a small OFB on radar returns now. Yeah, the last radar image showed an acceleration SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Severe weather section http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/ Thank you so much! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Helicity Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 NAM has a NO GO across SC KS on Monday while the GFS continues to paint a very excellent picture. http://beta.wxcaster...&STATIONID=KWLD Winfield Sounding from tonights GFS Run....6000 CAPE and 16.0 EHI Not sure which model is out too lunch so not getting to excited fo rmuch of anything yet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 00z NAM and GFS both look pretty fun for SEMI tuesday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 That's my biggest fear right now, actually. I've seen too many days like this where the parameters look maximized well out into the Plains, so everyone hones in on that area, but ultimately upslope along the Front Range is the only initiating mechanism and tornadoes still occur there despite the seemingly-inferior environment (2009-06-05 and 2010-06-10 come to mind). It kind of looked like the 12z WRF-NNM this morning was hinting along those lines... bah. I thought about chasing the northeast corner of Colorado tomorrow. I just don't have the energy or the money to go out and drive 300 miles and risk getting stuck in a hail cluster. I think the forcing will be there to make storms into squall lines pretty quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Helicity Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 73 DBZ monster in KS right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 TW with a nasty bunch of wind now... The show is about to start in SGF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 TW with a nasty bunch of wind now... The show is about to start in SGF I have the deflector shield up for Joplin, it's holding so far, everything just north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 I have the deflector shield up for Joplin, it's holding so far, everything just north of us. I picked the right weekend to visit...gonna get thumped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 I have the deflector shield up for Joplin, it's holding so far, everything just north of us. Is there still a lot of debris about in the city? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Sirens blaring...looks like more of a straight line threat though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 The sky is fuxking insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 I picked the right weekend to visit...gonna get thumped. Not sure why Springfield issued that tornado warning though. Looks like more wind behind that cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Wonder if any Southwest MO stations are streaming online Joplinmet has been on ustream all night. http://www.ustream.tv/channel/koam-7-skywatch-coverage-live Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Not sure why Springfield issued that tornado warning though. Looks like more wind behind that cell. Agreed. The wind looks to be pretty goo on radarscope though. Sitting on a second floor balcony that faces WNW. Sick light show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Last frame had a nice couplet just East of Dadeville - definitely more of a wind threat but have seen several decent couplets in a couple different spots within the line for a frame or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Last frame had a nice couplet just East of Dadeville - definitely more of a wind threat but have seen several decent couplets in a couple different spots within the line for a frame or two. Yeah there are a few kinks in the velocity scan that are a little suspect. Better safe than sorry I guess... I rate this light show an 8.5 out of 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Yeah there are a few kinks in the velocity scan that are a little suspect. Better safe than sorry I guess... I rate this light show an 8.5 out of 10. I know there is a lot of debate about these type of situations, but with the potential for embedded qlcs tornadoes and with the extreme damaging wind threat, I am definitely in favor of tornado warnings. Anyways, back to the storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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