Tracking the season's coldest air thus far

[earthlight]

NAM is now indicative of H850 temperatures as low as -12 to -13 C in the local area 12z Sunday with light northwest winds.

[LMolineuxLM1]

Went from tracking potential storms to now just tracking the coldest air of the season. Just great, but this is all great for me and my allergies, they have like dropped off to barely anything at all, plus the wasps yellow jackets and hornets are all done. So outdoor activities are perfect now for me.

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

Unfortunately the cold looks to be the only thing to track the next 10 days or so...hopefully those Euro snow showers will come to fruition.

[MJO812]

Unfortunately the cold looks to be the only thing to track the next 10 days or so...hopefully those Euro snow showers will come to fruition.

Euro isn't the only model showing snow showers and flurries. Nam and GFS are also showing it.

[atownwxwatcher]

Unfortunately the cold looks to be the only thing to track the next 10 days or so...hopefully those Euro snow showers will come to fruition.

Not to mention there is also a storm with in 9 days that the ECM has been showing as well as the GFS to some extent...

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

Euro isn't the only model showing snow showers and flurries. Nam and GFS are also showing it.

Not to the extent of the EURO I dont think....my area anyway....

[forkyfork]

NAM is now indicative of H850 temperatures as low as -12 to -13 C in the local area 12z Sunday with light northwest winds.

and low level clouds everywhere

[earthlight]

and low level clouds everywhere

Yeah, puts a cap on the whole thing pretty much. The low level clouds get worse after that, too, with the ULL overhead and the low pressure retrograding towards New England.

[nzucker]

Yeah, puts a cap on the whole thing pretty much. The low level clouds get worse after that, too, with the ULL overhead and the low pressure retrograding towards New England.

Daytime highs should be way below average the next week with cold 850s around -10C to -15C and the constant cloud cover/flurries. We can start looking for really cold nights by Wednesday or Thursday next week as the next high pressure builds in and things start to clear out. It is better to have cloud cover and NW winds to keep NYC below average since Central Park doesn't radiate at all anyway.

[earthlight]

Daytime highs should be way below average the next week with cold 850s around -10C to -15C and the constant cloud cover/flurries. We can start looking for really cold nights by Wednesday or Thursday next week as the next high pressure builds in and things start to clear out. It is better to have cloud cover and NW winds to keep NYC below average since Central Park doesn't radiate at all anyway.

Well I was mainly referring to my location and other interior locations..the cloud cover overnight will kill what could have otherwise been good cold with ideal radiating.

[nzucker]

Well I was mainly referring to my location and other interior locations..the cloud cover overnight will kill what could have otherwise been good cold with ideal radiating.

Aren't 850s going to be colder later in the week anyway?

[earthlight]

NAM has a lake effect streamer getting to Southeast PA and Western NJ

[Quakertown needs snow]

NAM has a lake effect streamer getting to Southeast PA and Western NJ

teasing streamer

[Alpha5]

Just out of curisoity....is it possible to have sound effect snow? Being on the north side of the Long Island Sound theres no way I would benefit from it, but is it possible for sound effect snow bands to hit long island?

[uncle W]

the heat island has kept Central Park from recording its first 32 degrees or lower day...Last year's was December 7th...

2007 on this date...

http://nycsubway.org/perl/show?78319

[Alpha5]

the heat island has kept Central Park from recording its first 32 degrees or lower day...Last year's was December 7th...

2007 on this date...

http://nycsubway.org/perl/show?78319

The UHI in manhattan is insane. Last night the park was at 38, and I was sitting at 29, were barely 30 miles away.... I dont see how anyone can take places like LGA and NYC to be serious climate recording stations.

[Sundog]

Just out of curisoity....is it possible to have sound effect snow? Being on the north side of the Long Island Sound theres no way I would benefit from it, but is it possible for sound effect snow bands to hit long island?

I've seen and heard of sound enhanced snow. Not sure if I ever heard of it happening completely on its own.

[Alpha5]

I've seen and heard of sound enhanced snow. Not sure if I ever heard of it happening completely on its own.

Hmm interesting, does this work on both sides of the sound? I guess it all depends on the winds...

Just wondering if the LIS helps us during no mixing events like coastals

[Sundog]

Hmm interesting, does this work on both sides of the sound? I guess it all depends on the winds...

Just wondering if the LIS helps us during no mixing events like coastals

Check this out, courtesy of northshorewx.

http://www.northshorewx.com/LES20020107Case.asp

[snowman21]

The UHI in manhattan is insane. Last night the park was at 38, and I was sitting at 29, were barely 30 miles away.... I dont see how anyone can take places like LGA and NYC to be serious climate recording stations.

Well today is the 90% date for the first fall freeze at NYC. 95% will be Tuesday. Guess we won't have to wait too much longer. LGA/NYC/JFK/EWR may not be representative climate sites on an area weighted basis, but they are representative stations for the 8 million people living in New York.

[Sundog]

Well today is the 90% date for the first fall freeze at NYC. 95% will be Tuesday. Guess we won't have to wait too much longer. LGA/NYC/JFK/EWR may not be representative climate sites on an area weighted basis, but they are representative stations for the 8 million people living in New York.

I wouldn't say they're representative unless you live on the island of Manhattan and/or western Queens, western Brooklyn and the south Bronx. So basically half the city is excluded.

Staten island is definitely on its own weather wise. Northern Bronx tends to be colder. East Queens is MUCH cooler than the parts next to Manhattan and LGA is probably too high even for those warmer areas. I routinely record temperatures between 5 and 10 degrees colder than LGA, and I am literally 3 miles east of the airport as the crow flies. Sad but true.

Just a few nights ago one of the more extreme differences occurred, where LGA had a low of 39 degrees and I had a low of 31.

So what we basically have is three major weather stations telling us the weather for people that live along the east river lol.

[SnowGoose69]

I wouldn't say they're representative unless you live on the island of Manhattan and/or western Queens, western Brooklyn and the south Bronx. So basically half the city is excluded.

Staten island is definitely on its own weather wise. Northern Bronx tends to be colder. East Queens is MUCH cooler than the parts next to Manhattan and LGA is probably too high even for those warmer areas. I routinely record temperatures between 5 and 10 degrees colder than LGA, and I am literally 3 miles east of the airport as the crow flies. Sad but true.

Just a few nights ago one of the more extreme differences occurred, where LGA had a low of 39 degrees and I had a low of 31.

So what we basically have is three major weather stations telling us the weather for people that live along the east river lol.

I recall around in 1998 Central Park set their latest first 32 degree temp ever on something like December 8th...at the time it was a horrifying thought....now its been almost a regular occurrence that it occurs in either the last 2-3 days of November or early December....some of our colder winters in recent years have even seen it be quite late.

[uncle W]

I recall around in 1998 Central Park set their latest first 32 degree temp ever on something like December 8th...at the time it was a horrifying thought....now its been almost a regular occurrence that it occurs in either the last 2-3 days of November or early December....some of our colder winters in recent years have even seen it be quite late.

NYC's latest 32 day since 1930...

1998...12/22

2001...12/16

1948...12/11

2009...12/09

2010...12/04

2006...12/04

1985...12/02

1963...12/01

[doncat]

I wouldn't say they're representative unless you live on the island of Manhattan and/or western Queens, western Brooklyn and the south Bronx. So basically half the city is excluded.

Staten island is definitely on its own weather wise. Northern Bronx tends to be colder. East Queens is MUCH cooler than the parts next to Manhattan and LGA is probably too high even for those warmer areas. I routinely record temperatures between 5 and 10 degrees colder than LGA, and I am literally 3 miles east of the airport as the crow flies. Sad but true.

Just a few nights ago one of the more extreme differences occurred, where LGA had a low of 39 degrees and I had a low of 31.

So what we basically have is three major weather stations telling us the weather for people that live along the east river lol.

For comparison, my lows on the last 3 days of Nov, were 28,25 and 33. Meanwhile lows at CPK were 34,35,44 and at LGA 37,39,45. The NWS doesn't seem to realize that the low temps here can be 10 degrees or more lower, because their zone forcasts for Staten Island are never any different than those for the other boroughs as far as temps are concerned.

[nzucker]

I recall around in 1998 Central Park set their latest first 32 degree temp ever on something like December 8th...at the time it was a horrifying thought....now its been almost a regular occurrence that it occurs in either the last 2-3 days of November or early December....some of our colder winters in recent years have even seen it be quite late.

I don't understand how the heat island is getting so much worse...the City has been heavily urban for so long and yet the UHI seems to be intensifying. I'm wondering if development in the outlying suburbs is modifying cold N/NW flow coming from Canada and thus not allowing Central Park to get the benefit of cold fronts.

For comparison, my lows on the last 3 days of Nov, were 28,25 and 33. Meanwhile lows at CPK were 34,35,44 and at LGA 37,39,45. The NWS doesn't seem to realize that the low temps here can be 10 degrees or more lower, because their zone forcasts for Staten Island are never any different than those for the other boroughs as far as temps are concerned.

Staten Island is quite suburban and even semi-rural in some parts, with lots of open land, so it tends to be much colder. Your lows were even colder than mine in Southern Westchester....I believe I had 31, 28, and 37 for that stretch. That's pretty impressive. We radiate terribly in my area with all the hills and widespread developments.

[A-L-E-X]

NYC's latest 32 day since 1930...

1998...12/22

2001...12/16

1948...12/11

2009...12/09

2006...12/04

1985...12/02

1963...12/01

1998-- lol wow.  And I distinctly remember 2001 being our shortest period of freezing weather as we had our first freeze in the middle of dec and our last in feb.

But any connection to the winter is nonexistent-- if you look at that list.... three of our snowy winters are on it... including last winter!  Looks like this will be the first time we've had consecutive years with first freezes in Dec. though.

[A-L-E-X]

Well today is the 90% date for the first fall freeze at NYC. 95% will be Tuesday. Guess we won't have to wait too much longer. LGA/NYC/JFK/EWR may not be representative climate sites on an area weighted basis, but they are representative stations for the 8 million people living in New York.

You cant group JFK and EWR with the rest since they dont suffer from UHI nearly as much.

[A-L-E-X]

I've seen and heard of sound enhanced snow. Not sure if I ever heard of it happening completely on its own.

Hey do you remember our first big snowstorm in Dec 1995?  It was actually a busted forecast-- we were supposed to get 15-20 inches, but no one remembers because of the kind of winter we had.  NYC and JFK only got 8 inches but LGA somehow got 14 inches lol.  Might have been sound effect right there.

If that storm had not been a partial bust and if we didnt torch for the middle and end of Jan, and if the April storm had come a bit further west-- NYC would have had 90+ inches of snow.

[SACRUS]

NYC's latest 32 day since 1930...

1998...12/22

2001...12/16

1948...12/11

2009...12/09

2006...12/04

1985...12/02

1963...12/01

Missed by a half degree last night/this morning.

[snowman21]

Looks like EWR (31) and NYC (32) reached freezing temperatures this morning. LGA (35) and JFK (33) not so lucky.