Derecho! Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 http://earthquake.us...ps/10/40_15.php Largest is 5.7. http://oiswww.eumets...FRICA/index.htm Some sites are claiming an eruption plume visible (last two frames) - it's in the area of the earthquakes (which is around the large silicic caldera Nabro) but there's also a tropical wave in western Ethiopia. Located in an isolated hell on earth. Found a paper suggesting that Nabro has had a previous eruption with 20-100 cubic kilometers of ejecta, which is 1/2 to 2 times the size of Tambora. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Maps/10/40_15.php Largest is 5.7. http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/IMAGERY/IR039/COLOR/EASTERNAFRICA/index.htm Some sites are claiming an eruption plume visible (last two frames) - it's in the area of the earthquakes (which is around the large silicic caldera Nabro) but there's also a tropical wave in western Ethiopia. Located in an isolated hell on earth. Found a paper suggesting that Nabro has had a previous eruption with 20-100 cubic kilometers of ejecta, which is 1/2 to 2 times the size of Tambora. There are two frames on the satellite so far, so it's pretty much impossible to tell if it's an eruption or just convection. It would be a pretty big coincidence, since the blow-up is directly over the earthquake zone. If the eastern edge of the plume still looks relatively stationary for a third frame, I'd go with volcanic pyrocumulus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Sat24 has a good close-up loop over the area. http://www.sat24.com/en/et Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted June 12, 2011 Author Share Posted June 12, 2011 There are two frames on the satellite so far, so it's pretty much impossible to tell if it's an eruption or just convection. It would be a pretty big coincidence, since the blow-up is directly over the earthquake zone. If the eastern edge of the plume still looks relatively stationary for a third frame, I'd go with volcanic pyrocumulus. A third EUMETSAT image is available - the eastern edge is stationary and the plume is expanding to the west. I'm pretty sure it's an eruptive column. No advisory from the Toulouse VAAC yet, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 pretty http://www.flickr.com/photos/magisstra/5470118021/ hopefully it gives us a good winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Sat24 has a good close-up loop over the area. http://www.sat24.com/en/et A third EUMETSAT image is available - the eastern edge is stationary and the plume is expanding to the west. I'm pretty sure it's an eruptive column. No advisory from the Toulouse VAAC yet, though. Yup, based on that close-up that bluewave provided, that's almost certainly a volcanic eruption. The only other explanation I can think of is a near-stationary seabreeze trigger, but that seems highly unlikely to me... especially given the warm water and the fact that it's nighttime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 http://2012forum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=39&p=388862 the 2012 forum! it's either that or FR or here it seems. tho i dont know about the nerd geology forums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 There are two frames on the satellite so far, so it's pretty much impossible to tell if it's an eruption or just convection. It would be a pretty big coincidence, since the blow-up is directly over the earthquake zone. If the eastern edge of the plume still looks relatively stationary for a third frame, I'd go with volcanic pyrocumulus. Agreed. Its narrow and the ejecta is moving fast down stream in a non-anvil manor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 no record of recent eruptions... so when's the last suspected eruption of nabro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Agreed. Its narrow and the ejecta is moving fast down stream in a non-anvil manor. Although I wouldn't be surprised if the rising column of air in the generally unstable airmass there was creating a cumulonimbus (pyrocumulus), complete with lightning and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 no record of recent eruptions... so when's the last suspected eruption of nabro? There are several volcanoes in the region, so it might or might not be Nabro: http://maps.google.com/?ie=UTF8&ll=13.268685,41.792679&spn=0.309429,0.617294&t=p&z=11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 The presumed ash plume is moving over several decent-sized villages and towns in northern Ethiopia: http://maps.google.com/?ie=UTF8&ll=14.281685,39.37912&spn=0.616178,1.234589&t=h&z=10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted June 12, 2011 Author Share Posted June 12, 2011 no record of recent eruptions... so when's the last suspected eruption of nabro? http://www.volcano.s...m?vnum=0201-101 Nabro Country:Eritrea Subregion Name:Northeastern Africa Volcano Number:0201-101 Volcano Type: Stratovolcano Volcano Status:Holocene? Last Known Eruption: Unknown Summit Elevation: 2218 m 7,277 feet Latitude: 13.37°N 13°22'0"N Longitude: 41.70°E 41°42'0"E The 2218-m-high Nabro stratovolcano is the highest volcano in the Danakil depression of northern Ethiopia and Eritrea. Located at the SE end of the Danakil Alps, Nabro lies in the Danakil horst. Nabro is the most prominent and NE-most of three volcanoes with large summit calderas aligned in a NE-SW direction SW of Dubbi volcano. These three volcanoes, along with Sork Ale volcano, collectively comprise the Bidu volcanic complex. The complex Nabro stratovolcano is truncated by nested calderas, 8 and 5 km in diameter. The larger caldera is widely breached to the SW. Nabro was constructed primarily of trachytic lava flows and pyroclastics. Post-caldera rhyolitic obsidian domes and basaltic lava flows were erupted inside the caldera and on its flanks. Some very recent lava flows were erupted from NNW-trending fissures transverse to the trend of the Nabro volcanic range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted June 12, 2011 Author Share Posted June 12, 2011 The presumed ash plume is moving over several decent-sized villages and towns in northern Ethiopia: http://maps.google.c...234589&t=h&z=10 Geez, the Toulouse VAAC is asleep at the wheel. (I'm proud to be the first to bash a Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre on AmericanWx) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Geez, the Toulouse VAAC is asleep at the wheel. (I'm proud to be the first to bash a Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre on AmericanWx) There wasn't even a "watch" issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 They had no warning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted June 12, 2011 Author Share Posted June 12, 2011 They had no warning! Well, at least the area isn't exactly dense with air traffic :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted June 12, 2011 Author Share Posted June 12, 2011 The presumed ash plume is moving over several decent-sized villages and towns in northern Ethiopia: http://maps.google.c...234589&t=h&z=10 Hmmm....the plume is heading straight for Khartoum, Sudan, eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 so is this a big deal or just a run of the mill volcanic eruption? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 if that is a volcano going off its huge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted June 12, 2011 Author Share Posted June 12, 2011 so is this a big deal or just a run of the mill volcanic eruption? I'll hazard it's at least a moderate deal - the plume is growing rapidly, and most eruptions in this area in the last century or more have been small or just lava flows, which makes it unusual. Also, the seismicity was really pretty strong - not a whole lot of eruptions are preceded by an M 5.7 quake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 so is this a big deal or just a run of the mill volcanic eruption? Not sure, but for scale, the plume looks bigger than the ones I can find from Eyjafjallajokull, but not as big (yet) as one of the recent Chilean eruptions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Based on a rough estimate the atmospheric plume has already travelled 200 miles WNW of the eruption site. It is moving at a speed of about 75 mph . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted June 13, 2011 Author Share Posted June 13, 2011 Looking at the last frame the plume at the source looks a LITTLE weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Only one or two flights in the area... http://flightaware.com/live/airport_status_bigmap.rvt?airport=HDAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 http://earthquake-report.com/2011/06/12/unusual-series-of-moderate-volcanic-earthquakes-in-eritrea-and-ethiopia/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 So once it gets over the Atlantic, will this hit my backyard or curve into a fish cloud? Will Josh chase this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 So once it gets over the Atlantic, will this hit my backyard or curve into a fish cloud? Will Josh chase this? Imagine if a pyrocumulus-induced MCS formed a powerful easterly wave which became an early-season Cape Verde cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Imagine if a volcanic SAL outbreak kept rainstorm and matthewweatherwatcher busy all summer fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted June 13, 2011 Author Share Posted June 13, 2011 Clearly, this will kill the whole Atlantic tropical season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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