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Next Week Lake-Effect


isnice

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Then there's this bad boy:

post-619-0-87419600-1291648268.gif

WOW!!! I would love to be under that thing. Probally a good 2-4 inches per hour in that band with the snowfall ratios being 15-20:1. Oh well I'm happy with my almost 8 inches with the NWS saying at 10:12 am that 3-5 inches of additional snow should fall between now and tonight at midnight =]
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As of 7 am, storm total for me (since Sat. eve.) is 14"....(11.5 on the ground)....at work now, and I'm assuming (looking at Channel 9's radar) that L'pool may have picked up another couple inches since then.

Here at SU, they recieved about 60-75% of what I got at home. Currently light to occasionally mod. snow.....

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lmaosmiley.gif

Tonight - SnowLow 23°Blustery wind with additional snow and lake effect imbedded squalls. Many areas pick up 2-4" of additional snowfall. Localized amounts of 6" or more likely southeast of Lake Ontario. Blowing and drifting of previous snowfall likely. Wind: W 15-25 MPH and gusty. Wind chills 8 to 15.

Tuesday - Snow

Hi 29° | Low 20°Brisk winds with additional lake effect snow showers, flurries and squalls. Blowing and drifting of previous snow likely. Additional accumulation during the daytime of 1-3" generally with up to 3-6" in the persistent snow bands. Wind chills in the Teens through the day. For Tuesday night, a connection to Georgian Bay may materialize. If this occurs, heavy snow bands may coalesce and produce as much as 5-10" of additional accumulation for Tuesday night. We will need to carefully watch Tuesday night as snowfall amounts may need to be adjusted upwards or downwards depending upon how the band forms.

Wednesday - Scattered SnowHi 27° | Low 15°Lake effect snow showers and flurries will probably be a bit lighter during the day. However, an additional 1-3" of snow is still possible during the day. Computer models once again suggest a connection to Georgian Bay moisture for Wednesday night. If this materializes, an additional 5-12" of snow or more may occur in the heaviest band. Once again, we need to keep a sharp eye on how this develops.

popcorn.gif

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Can I get any Mets thoughts on my above post about the Georgian Bay connection? What are the chances of this happening and if it does will it produce those totals?

It will be a close call for upstream connections. The further west (and/or south) our retrograder can make it, the better our chances (in CNY) of benefitting from a nice single band off Geo Bay. Nevertheless, the next two days + should give almost everyone S , SE, and E of the lakes a solid foot, with higher amounts probably over the Tug, just west of Syr., hills S and SE of Syr. and some select locations where the finger lakes provide a bit of enhanced convergence/moisture. Also, NE of Ontario, some decent synoptic snow may pile up a few inches. Winter is here!!!

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I don't know how much snow fell today, but it's been steady SN to occl +SN all day. 5" is the total for last night. Blowing and drifting is the worst we've seen it in years, hence my anguish wrt measuring. NAM looks great for the next 48-60 hours...and with the GFS, this pattern is epic (similar to what happened in Dec 1944, FWIW).

Off to shovel...

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"FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...THERE IS A PERSISTENT

AREA OF SNOW FROM NEAR NIAGARA FALLS INTO THE BUFFALO METRO AREA.

THIS IS THE BROADER/WEAKER REMNANTS OF THE HEAVIER BAND THIS MORNING

AND HAS ORIGINS FROM GEORGIAN BAY. EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST INTO EARLY

EVENING...THEN WE MAY SEE A RELATIVE LULL DURING THE MID TO LATE

EVENING. OVERNIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY EXPECT ANOTHER

UPSWING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOWFALL AS THE NEXT

BATCH OF MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE SURFACE LOW OVER QUEBEC. GIVEN

THE VERY DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE PROFILE...EXPECT AN AREA OF LAKE

ENHANCEMENT WILL BLOSSOM OVER MUCH OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER LATER

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS MAY PRODUCE 2-4 INCH ACCUMS FOR

MUCH OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TONIGHT AND ADDITIONAL 1-3 WITH LOCAL 4

INCH AMOUNTS TUESDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR ANY FURTHER

GEORGIAN BAY BANDS WHICH COULD PRODUCE VERY LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS"

:snowman:

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BUF&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=on

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It will be a close call for upstream connections. The further west (and/or south) our retrograder can make it, the better our chances (in CNY) of benefitting from a nice single band off Geo Bay. Nevertheless, the next two days + should give almost everyone S , SE, and E of the lakes a solid foot, with higher amounts probably over the Tug, just west of Syr., hills S and SE of Syr. and some select locations where the finger lakes provide a bit of enhanced convergence/moisture. Also, NE of Ontario, some decent synoptic snow may pile up a few inches. Winter is here!!!

A foot on top of what we have now?

popcorn.gifLet it snow, let it snowthumbsupsmileyanim.gif

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Oh btw, big win for you guys last night eh LEK?

Big Ben is a warrior haha.

Oh yeah! Watched the entire game, then caught up on the post game, then radar, then 00z models, to bed by 1am....get up at 5:30 to clean driveway, hot tub cover, sidewalk....off to work on 4.5 hours sleep.....and will probably stay up until the 00z GFS (maybe GGEM) come out! :arrowhead: Tis the life of a Steeler fanatic and winter weather weenie!!! :thumbsup:

Anybody want to trade for Troy? He's gettin' past his prime. :arrowhead::lmao:

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Still no radar any time soon, guess we will be going thru tonights round of LES blind.:axe:

88D NOTIFICATION MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY

230 PM EST MON DEC 6 2010

12/06/2010 1930 UTC

ADJACENT WFO`S...BUF...ALY...CTP...PHI...OKX.

KBGM WSR-88D REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. PARTS ARE ON ORDER...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE RADAR WILL BE DOWN UNTIL AT LEAST NOON ON TUESDAY.

LATER UPDATES WILL BE SENT...AS MORE INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

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After being just a few miles too far north last week, this is completely unexpected and makes me much happier :) Estimated 8-10 " were already on the ground near Delaware Park (Buffalo) at around 2 PM. The ground was still bare yesterday evening! And looking at the radar, it should still be snowing there now. I guess Lake Huron saved the day this time :)

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BGM update...

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

UPDATED AT 340 PM... STEADY-STATE LES BANDS CONTINUE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. UNFORTUNATELY...KBGM RADAR REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE...BUT SURROUNDING RADARS/SATELLITE IMAGERY/SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATE AN INTENSE BAND REMAINS ORIENTED FROM NEAR KSYR...ACROSS MADISON...NORTHERN CHENANGO...AND OTSEGO COUNTIES. THIS BAND SHOULD REMAIN ABOUT WHERE IT IS OVERNIGHT...AND THE INTENSITY MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE A BIT AFTER 00Z...AS ANOTHER SHOT OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATES SWD FROM ONT/QUE...AND LAND SURFACES STABILIZE.

ALSO...MULTI-BANDS OVER THE TWIN TIERS...EMANATING FROM LAKE HURON...MAY ALSO GET A BOOST IN INTENSITY THIS EVENING...FOR THE SAME REASONS. THUS...OTSEGO AND SOUTHERN ONEIDA WILL BE UPGRADED TO LES WARNINGS THROUGH 11Z TUE. ALL OTHER ADVISORIES/WARNINGS WILL REMAIN AS THEY WERE...EXCEPT ALSO EXTENDED OUT IN TIME TO 11Z.

OUR LOCAL WRF MODEL...WHICH HAD BEEN PERFORMING BEST SO FAR WITH THIS EVENT...SHOWS A FAIRLY WELL DEVELOPED BAND THROUGH THE NIGHT A BIT SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY. IT DOES NOT INDICATE AS MUCH ACROSS NY`S SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...BUT GIVEN VERY SIMILAR SETUP TO LAST NIGHT...WE THINK IT MAY BE UNDERDONE IN THAT REGARD.

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