Next Week Lake-Effect

[isnice]

I'm really concerned about you guys downwind of the lakes. If people think this past week's lake-effect was significant, next week is going to be insane. Non-stop lake-effect is going to accumulate day after day. We're talking about feet upon feet of snow...the region is going to be poverized.

[CNY Mike]

We've done it before, and we'll be able to do it again!

[LakeEffectKing]

I'm really concerned about you guys downwind of the lakes. If people think this past week's lake-effect was significant, next week is going to be insane. Non-stop lake-effect is going to accumulate day after day. We're talking about feet upon feet of snow...the region is going to be poverized.

Thanks for you enthusiasm from afar. But we certainly are not locked into an insane LES situation, at least by the standards up here. Still a bit early as to if we can get a single band off Ontario, or if we get a general multi day multi band situation. In either case, this should be a very nice event for those that missed the lottery the last 2 days! Ski country off Erie may get feets of snow!!

[lakeeffectkid383]

Thanks for you enthusiasm from afar. But we certainly are not locked into an insane LES situation, at least by the standards up here. Still a bit early as to if we can get a single band off Ontario, or if we get a general multi day multi band situation. In either case, this should be a very nice event for those that missed the lottery the last 2 days! Ski country off Erie may get feets of snow!!

Hoping for another foot or two next week in West Seneca over several days. This is easily possible. Even if theres a 3-6 inch snowfall Sunday then 2-4 inches monday tuesday and wednesday thats 9-18 inches on top of the 40 inches =]

gfs has another solid foot on top of us in WS.

http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=BUF

[heavy_wx]

I'm hoping us in oswego can get in on the action maybe with some of that nice atlantic moisture.

[DeltaT13]

I'm really concerned about you guys downwind of the lakes. If people think this past week's lake-effect was significant, next week is going to be insane. Non-stop lake-effect is going to accumulate day after day. We're talking about feet upon feet of snow...the region is going to be poverized.

Ummm, not really. Its a fantastic setup in many regards, but not in terms of Lake Effect. You need some serious schooling in the likes of Lake Effect Snow. Thanks for your concern though, we'll be just fine.

[LakeEffectKing]

Ummm, not really. Its a fantastic setup in many regards, but not in terms of Lake Effect. You need some serious schooling in the likes of Lake Effect Snow. Thanks for your concern though, we'll be just fine.

Gotta cut him some slack though.....tough to percieve what one doesn't experience....

Like last season, Liverpool recieved nearly 40" of snow over a 4.5 day period.......and it was percieved as quite ordinary for these parts...no delays, very few cancelations, but a really nice scene during the time it was happening!

Now give us that 40" in 8 hours, and you're talking "insane" type events

[LakeEffectKing]

As for the long duration event to come, I'm quite happy to see the models trending toward having the retrograding systems do so a bit further to the northeast. They are keeping more channels of vorticity over the lakes, allowing enough "room" for 850's to be drawn down into the lower negative teens (as opposed to yesterday's runs hinting at some lower level warming off the Atlantic.....850's were warming to near -4 in some suites), and moisture from 700 down looks pretty darn good for a good length of time.

By this time next week, many folks S, SE, and ESE of Erie and Ontario will have had a "really good" periodic event where totals may approach 2'.....but spread out over many days.....Ho Hum......

[Paweatherguy1]

As for the long duration event to come, I'm quite happy to see the models trending toward having the retrograding systems do so a bit further to the northeast. They are keeping more channels of vorticity over the lakes, allowing enough "room" for 850's to be drawn down into the lower negative teens (as opposed to yesterday's runs hinting at some lower level warming off the Atlantic.....850's were warming to near -4 in some suites), and moisture from 700 down looks pretty darn good for a good length of time.

By this time next week, many folks S, SE, and ESE of Erie and Ontario will have had a "really good" periodic event where totals may approach 2'.....but spread out over many days.....Ho Hum......

Just curious, since I am truly an amateur, what this entails for the Pittsburgh area...now granted, I know that we can't expect any sort of major event, but I was looking at the GFS and my very amatuer guess would be it is about as good as a set up for this area as you can get...we do get events sometimes where we can get 4-8 inches over a 2 day period, which again, compared to you is nothing, but for us would be a nice event.

[LakeEffectKing]

Just curious, since I am truly an amateur, what this entails for the Pittsburgh area...now granted, I know that we can't expect any sort of major event, but I was looking at the GFS and my very amatuer guess would be it is about as good as a set up for this area as you can get...we do get events sometimes where we can get 4-8 inches over a 2 day period, which again, compared to you is nothing, but for us would be a nice event.

Just taking a glance, the wind speeds are just below what I'd think you guys would need to have a chance to score decent totals from a migrating band or two.

[kulaginman]

Not to get too far ahead of ourselves, but if the latest op gfs verifies (BIG IF) there could be another significant to major event affecting portions of the Buffalo metro area next weekend. In the meantime, it's the higher terrain south/east FTW.

[WNYLakeEffect]

Not to get too far ahead of ourselves, but if the latest op gfs verifies (BIG IF) there could be another significant to major event affecting portions of the Buffalo metro area next weekend. In the meantime, it's the higher terrain south/east FTW.

18z NAM looks great down here:

If that were to hold up, definite potential for 12-24". Great Huron Connection potential for anywhere in Erie County PA and Chautauqua County. A lot like last January, but colder and with a warmer lake. A slightly more WNW flow would be better, but it's early season so NW flow events tend to do better despite the short fetch, especially with lots of synoptic moisture.

[kulaginman]

18z NAM looks great down here:

If that were to hold up, definite potential for 12-24". Great Huron Connection potential for anywhere in Erie County PA and Chautauqua County. A lot like last January, but colder and with a warmer lake. A slightly more WNW flow would be better, but it's early season so NW flow events tend to do better despite the short fetch, especially with lots of synoptic moisture.

Absolutely! You may not get it as quickly as the immediate Buffalo south towns did...but I think you are going to do exceptionally well with the developing pattern through the middle of next week. The period between late Sunday and early Tuesday looks particularly good, IMO.

[LakeEffectKing]

18z NAM looks great down here:

If that were to hold up, definite potential for 12-24". Great Huron Connection potential for anywhere in Erie County PA and Chautauqua County. A lot like last January, but colder and with a warmer lake. A slightly more WNW flow would be better, but it's early season so NW flow events tend to do better despite the short fetch, especially with lots of synoptic moisture.

You nailed the keys there. This event looks to hammer Chautauqua Co. The key is going to be the "first" retrograder, that lays down a nice band of moisture from 700 and below, for the next impulse to work over, all the while L. Huron cranks up it's band from the fortuitous orientation of lower Michigan's northern coast, with concave forcing from the Strait of Mackinac and Thunder Bay, feeding down into SW NYS and NW PA....

[LakeEffectKing]

Think the NAM knows where I-95 is???

Sorry, that just sucks!!

[CNY Mike]

That pic is going to have to go into the archives!

Now to go check the Mid-Atlantic board...

[LakeEffectKing]

That pic is going to have to go into the archives!

Now to go check the Mid-Atlantic board...

No thanks! They get grumpy....even if only 9.5 months removed from "epicness" X 2!!!

BTW, check out (I'd imagine) a fairly rare event up off James Bay....It's not frozen yet and there is a well aligned (obviously very cold) northerly flow. Folks (or Elk) will see great shots of synoptic snows and Bay effect snows! Shows up on NAM pretty well:

[CNY Mike]

Looks like it might help the ski-country south of BUF get some additional snow. I've never heard of a James Bay-Huron-Erie connection, but it would be awesome to see on radar.

[CNYWxGuy]

Think the NAM knows where I-95 is???

Sorry, that just sucks!!

18z NAM QPF at the county-level...

[LakeEffectKing]

If the models hold, I could see some 40+" weekly totals in Chautauqua Co. And some 20" totals near MBY!!

[LakeEffectKing]

And the bonus to this all is that we will be building a really good early snowpack to the north of us.....helps lock the cold in a bit longer for any upcoming overrunning events...

[CNY Mike]

If the models hold, I could see some 40+" weekly totals in Chautauqua Co. And some 20" totals near MBY!!

I'll be content to see 5" out of this setup, it seems the 270 flow doesn't exist this season. I'm actually curious to see just how much falls south of Lake Erie.

[LakeEffectKing]

I'll be content to see 5" out of this setup, it seems the 270 flow doesn't exist this season. I'm actually curious to see just how much falls south of Lake Erie.

You'll get yours....trust me!

BTW, I can report my first borderline moderate/heavy snow here in Liverpool. About 3/4 of an inch in last hour. 3" on the season.

[CNYWxGuy]

You'll get yours....trust me!

BTW, I can report my first borderline moderate/heavy snow here in Liverpool. About 3/4 of an inch in last hour. 3" on the season.

I do believe this squall has my name on it. Hopefully it will last long enough to whiten things up, and perhaps even raise my season total of 1.2" by 50% lol...

[CNYWxGuy]

The 10 minute wait outside paid off with a 5-10 minute burst of +SN...

[kulaginman]

Everything still appears to be on track for this upcoming event, and I still believe the higher terrain south of BUF (particularly in Chautauqua County) is in for a very snowy period especially from late tomorrow into Tuesday. The latest high resolution WRF is actually depicting a QPF maximum of 2.57" over Erie County PA!! I totally agree with LEK...some spots along the Chautauqua Ridge could reach 40" with this event, just spread out over a much longer duration than the recent event in the Buffalo south towns.

Another interesting thing to take note of: this morning's WRF is depicting a Georgian Bay streamer making it all the way down into the Niagara Frontier on Monday...allowing for the possibility of a secondary QPF maximum somewhere in the IAG-BUF corridor. Many of us have noted the similarities between this upcoming event and the event that occurred at the beginning of last January...and last January's event brought surprisingly heavy snowfall totals (over 30") to Niagara Falls, which was grossly underestimated by the computer models at that time.

Trying to forecast the placement of a razor-thin Georgian Bay streamer more than 12 hours in advance is pretty much an exercise in futility...but just because this will be an NWF event doesn't mean locations on the Niagara Frontier can't receive +SN as well. We'll need to watch for this.

[WNYLakeEffect]

Everything still appears to be on track for this upcoming event, and I still believe the higher terrain south of BUF (particularly in Chautauqua County) is in for a very snowy period especially from late tomorrow into Tuesday. The latest high resolution WRF is actually depicting a QPF maximum of 2.57" over Erie County PA!! I totally agree with LEK...some spots along the Chautauqua Ridge could reach 40" with this event, just spread out over a much longer duration than the recent event in the Buffalo south towns.

Another interesting thing to take note of: this morning's WRF is depicting a Georgian Bay streamer making it all the way down into the Niagara Frontier on Monday...allowing for the possibility of a secondary QPF maximum somewhere in the IAG-BUF corridor. Many of us have noted the similarities between this upcoming event and the event that occurred at the beginning of last January...and last January's event brought surprisingly heavy snowfall totals (over 30") to Niagara Falls, which was grossly underestimated by the computer models at that time.

Trying to forecast the placement of a razor-thin Georgian Bay streamer more than 12 hours in advance is pretty much an exercise in futility...but just because this will be an NWF event doesn't mean locations on the Niagara Frontier can't receive +SN as well. We'll need to watch for this.

CLE just put up watches for 1-2 feet, though with the WRF/NAM, it could easily be much more than that (hopefully with good ratios). Monday morning seems like the best time here, when a Huron Connection seems most favorable. It would really be something to see back to back 40"+ events off of Lake Erie...as far as I know, since 1850 (when the NYT becomes available online) I've never found anything like that.

Back to the present, I've had SN to +SN for over an hour now.

[kulaginman]

CLE just put up watches for 1-2 feet, though with the WRF/NAM, it could easily be much more than that (hopefully with good ratios). Monday morning seems like the best time here, when a Huron Connection seems most favorable. It would really be something to see back to back 40"+ events off of Lake Erie...as far as I know, since 1850 (when the NYT becomes available online) I've never found anything like that.

Back to the present, I've had SN to +SN for over an hour now.

I just loaded up the 12z WRF bufkit for JHW...and the snow growth does look pretty good. RH looks to be at or above 80% throughout the depth of the dendritic growth layer for the entire event, even increasing to >90% periodically. It certainly won't be the dense snow that fell in the metro area this week.

[Andyace]

Any action for Northern Oneida county? Major snow depressed area this year, need snow for the trails badly.

[LakeEffectKing]

Good stuff guys! I posted in another thread that 12z NAM came in further south (wrt the second retrograder) and the GFS has followed suit. Certainly provides additional chances for synoptic wrap around, along will seeding from above, for the "underneath" LES.

Justin, I recieved nearly 40" over 4 days in Liverpool from last year's Jan event....And, although it doesn't seem "right" to make a similar call, I certainly think this event has an opportunity to verify as such over some locations in C/W NY.