Looking ahead to Winter 2011-2012?

[mitchnick]

We can still do well in weak La Ninas in DC. It isn't the end of the world.

I agree, and the East QBO will do the trick........I hope

[uncle W]

We might see another Neg A O winter coming up...Since 1950 Aug. 2011 has the third lowest AO index...all the analogs below had a lower AO value in the winter months.....

year...Aug.AO index...Winters low value

1977.....-1.412.....-3.014 Feb...

1964.....-1.207.....-2.084 Feb...

2011.....-1.063.....-???

1960.....-1.008.....-1.506 Jan...

1950.....-0.851.....-1.928 Dec...

1987.....-0.836.....-1.066 Feb...

1986.....-0.826.....-1.473 Feb...

[Deck Pic]

then you aren't old enough to know any snowless winters. I have seen at least three in my lifetime and , if I remember correctly, 1995, the year of ICE, was one of the most recent. I,m not belittling you, just letting you know that your must be quite young to make this statement.. I,m over 60 so I have a broader database from which to speak.

I haven't seen any and I am 39....there are no snowless winters.....

[Nikolai]

DC is going to be cold/dry and probably going to get 10-15" of snow, front-loaded. Winter won't be bad & December will feel great, but legitimate winter (aka snow threats) is only going to last till mid-January.

It's basically the best way to get only a limited amount of snow, even if seasonal totals are only around a foot.

S of DC is going to be screwed.

[Fozz]

I haven't seen any and I am 39....there are no snowless winters.....

1997-98

[snowdude]

1997-98

didn't we have 0.01"? Not snowless technically

[Deck Pic]

1997-98

That is the closest you will get and almost everyone in DC metro saw snow fall and stick that winter....12/9/97 it snowed that morning and stuck for pretty much everyone....the other events it depended where you were.....12/29 was a decent event for a fair amount....3/3 was another ok event for northern areas....there were a bunch of other minor events depending where you were....The idea that DC metro gets snowless winters is a canard....it doesn't happen...it snows and sticks every winter for almost everyone....I can't speak for central/southern VA....same in 72-73....pretty much everyone saw accumulating snow.....If you post on this board and live in DC metro you will see accumulating snow every winter....guaranteed....It is a lock

[SoCoWx]

DC is going to be cold/dry and probably going to get 10-15" of snow, front-loaded. Winter won't be bad & December will feel great, but legitimate winter (aka snow threats) is only going to last till mid-January.

It's basically the best way to get only a limited amount of snow, even if seasonal totals are only around a foot.

S of DC is going to be screwed.

Matter of opinion. The way the teleconnections are going again, I honestly feel December will be a good month for many folks in the east, even south of DC. Last year didnt strike me as a typical La Nina, and at the moment this one doesnt either.

[nj2va]

That is the closest you will get and almost everyone in DC metro saw snow fall and stick that winter....12/9/97 it snowed that morning and stuck for pretty much everyone....the other events it depended where you were.....12/29 was a decent event for a fair amount....3/3 was another ok event for northern areas....there were a bunch of other minor events depending where you were....The idea that DC metro gets snowless winters is a canard....it doesn't happen...it snows and sticks every winter for almost everyone....I can't speak for central/southern VA....same in 72-73....pretty much everyone saw accumulating snow.....If you post on this board and live in DC metro you will see accumulating snow every winter....guaranteed....It is a lock

Serious question....how do you remember it snowing on a particular day 14 years ago?

[Fozz]

Serious question....how do you remember it snowing on a particular day 14 years ago?

I remember some small events from 2002-03 pretty well, like 1/5/03 (an overperforming Alberta clipper, 3-5") and another storm from 1/17 that brought an inch to DC and Philly and 7" to Nashville and parts of SE Virginia.

Of course, I was 12 back then so I can't go too much further back.

[Deck Pic]

Serious question....how do you remember it snowing on a particular day 14 years ago?

I don't remember every snow event, but I remember a lot of them....It only snows and sticks on average probably 7 times a winter

[nj2va]

I remember some small events from 2002-03 pretty well, like 1/5/03 (an overperforming Alberta clipper, 3-5") and another storm from 1/17 that brought an inch to DC and Philly and 7" to Nashville and parts of SE Virginia.

Of course, I was 12 back then so I can't go too much further back.

I don't remember every snow event, but I remember a lot of them....It only snows and sticks on average probably 7 times a winter

Yeah, I definitely remember the more memorable events and storms that earned names (psuhoffman ), but I'm impressed when I see posts mentioning snow on so and so (the "random" events). Impressive!

[snowdude]

Serious question....how do you remember it snowing on a particular day 14 years ago?

I remember many snow event dates because I love snow and I love the weather so it's easy to remember something I enjoyed so much.

[mattie g]

I remember many snow event dates because I love snow and I love the weather so it's easy to remember something I enjoyed so much.

Besides, it doesn't snow here much, so it's not like there's all that much to remember.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Besides, it doesn't snow here much, so it's not like there's all that much to remember.

Is it your strategy to whine about snow to the point that you think it will snow? Sort of a reverse psychology type of thing?

[EastCoast NPZ]

Is it your strategy to whine about snow to the point that you think it will snow? Sort of a reverse psychology type of thing?

If so, give up. I've tried that strategy for years and it hasn't worked.

[BethesdaWX]

If so, give up. I've tried that strategy for years and it hasn't worked.

You're lucky to live in one of the best decades for HECS. We've had 3 "big ones" (or 4 depending on location) in the past 7yrs, PDII, DEC 2009, FEB 2010 snowmagedddon, the blizzard that followed on FEB10 was probably as good as it gets in actually verifying blizzard warnings. The MA just isn't a very snowy climate consistantly.

[Bob Chill]

We might see another Neg A O winter coming up...Since 1950 Aug. 2011 has the third lowest AO index...all the analogs below had a lower AO value in the winter months.....

year...Aug.AO index...Winters low value

1977.....-1.412.....-3.014 Feb...

1964.....-1.207.....-2.084 Feb...

2011.....-1.063.....-???

1960.....-1.008.....-1.506 Jan...

1950.....-0.851.....-1.928 Dec...

1987.....-0.836.....-1.066 Feb...

1986.....-0.826.....-1.473 Feb...

Weenie porn alert. Simply taking those AO August analogs and running a DJF temp and precip anom against 1950-2007 averages for the following winter looks like this:

Temp:

Precip:

Not using enso in the analog years and such a small set makes these maps pretty flawed but just going on the August AO alone indicates potential for a cool winter. The -NAO/-AO cycle we are in has been pretty persistant. Last year's DJF temps were unexpected in the MA by most.

[EastCoast NPZ]

You're lucky to live in one of the best decades for HECS. We've had 3 "big ones" (or 4 depending on location) in the past 7yrs, PDII, DEC 2009, FEB 2010 snowmagedddon, the blizzard that followed on FEB10 was probably as good as it gets in actually verifying blizzard warnings. The MA just isn't a very snowy climate consistantly.

Only 3 here. Feb 9 -10 was a dud (3 in.).

While we have had more numberous HECS in recent years, it seems we've had a marked decline in snowstorm frequency (non-HECS and non-MECS), and certainly a major decrease in cold air and snow cover duration. I've lived in this area all my 40 years. As a kid my whole family owned ice-skates and used to at least semi-routinely ice-skate on nearby ponds in the winter. I can sure remember long stretches of white ground and lots and lots of sledding growing up. There hasn't been ice thick enough here to skate on in years and years. We don't seem to get the run-of-the-mill 4-inch snow storms any more, and certainly not ones that stick around to get snowed on again (the obvious exception being Feb 2010). Heck, we haven't had a measurable snow here in March since 1993. No, the mid-atlantic is not the snow-lover's paradise, but there was a time when out here - at least - we had legitimate winter. IDK, maybe the 70's were just atypically cold and snowy.

[okie333]

Weenie porn alert. Simply taking those AO August analogs and running a DJF temp anom against 1950-2007 averages for the following winter looks like this:

Temp:

Not using enso in the analog years and such a small set makes these maps pretty flawed but just going on the August AO alone indicates potential for a cool winter. The -NAO/-AO cycle we are in has been pretty persistant. Last year's DJF temps were unexpected in the MA by most.

...and here it is with better scaling:

Now, compare to another metric... All years where June, July, and August were all negative in both the AO and NAO:

Two years that fit the most according to the summer AO and NAO:

[nj2va]

Weenie porn alert. Simply taking those AO August analogs and running a DJF temp and precip anom against 1950-2007 averages for the following winter looks like this:

Temp:

(snip)

Precip:

(snip)

Not using enso in the analog years and such a small set makes these maps pretty flawed but just going on the August AO alone indicates potential for a cool winter. The -NAO/-AO cycle we are in has been pretty persistant. Last year's DJF temps were unexpected in the MA by most.

You're right, that is porn.

[mattie g]

Is it your strategy to whine about snow to the point that you think it will snow? Sort of a reverse psychology type of thing?

Nope. I assume the worst and hope for the best.

And I don't really think of it as "whining." That's pretty harsh.

[BethesdaWX]

Only 3 here. Feb 9 -10 was a dud (3 in.).

While we have had more numberous HECS in recent years, it seems we've had a marked decline in snowstorm frequency (non-HECS and non-MECS), and certainly a major decrease in cold air and snow cover duration. I've lived in this area all my 40 years. As a kid my whole family owned ice-skates and used to at least semi-routinely ice-skate on nearby ponds in the winter. I can sure remember long stretches of white ground and lots and lots of sledding growing up. There hasn't been ice thick enough here to skate on in years and years. We don't seem to get the run-of-the-mill 4-inch snow storms any more, and certainly not ones that stick around to get snowed on again (the obvious exception being Feb 2010). No, the mid-atlantic is not the snow-lover's paradise, but there was a time when out here - at least - we had legitimate winter. IDK, maybe the 70's were just atypically cold and snowy.

We have indeed seen a decline in seasonal average, much of which is due to the upward trend in the NAO from the late 1960's to the early-mid 2000's, also in the 2000's the frequency of La Nina increased (1999, 2000, 2001, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2011), offsetting a decline in the NAO during that decade, the storm track would predominately cut to the lakes in those years. Also the climate is somewhat warmer, though directly the effect would be minimal on snowfall at a few degrees, relative to a change in the NAO. To state the importance of the NAO, in April 2007 we recieved an inch of snow, which never thought possible.

Heck, we haven't had a measurable snow here in March since 1993.

How about March 1 2009? Generally about 6" in the DC area with temps dropping into the lower 20's when the ULL passed (first round was 30-33 degrees generally). Also winds gusted into the 45mph range behind the storm, creating ground-blizzard conditions at times, that is one of my first memories of near constant blowing snow.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

Only 3 here. Feb 9 -10 was a dud (3 in.).

While we have had more numberous HECS in recent years, it seems we've had a marked decline in snowstorm frequency (non-HECS and non-MECS), and certainly a major decrease in cold air and snow cover duration. I've lived in this area all my 40 years. As a kid my whole family owned ice-skates and used to at least semi-routinely ice-skate on nearby ponds in the winter. I can sure remember long stretches of white ground and lots and lots of sledding growing up. There hasn't been ice thick enough here to skate on in years and years. We don't seem to get the run-of-the-mill 4-inch snow storms any more, and certainly not ones that stick around to get snowed on again (the obvious exception being Feb 2010). Heck, we haven't had a measurable snow here in March since 1993. No, the mid-atlantic is not the snow-lover's paradise, but there was a time when out here - at least - we had legitimate winter. IDK, maybe the 70's were just atypically cold and snowy.

When I look through winter statistics for my area (Baltimore), it seems like the winters in the old days here were more consistent- more frequent, but smaller snowfalls for a much longer period (Nov. to April) and colder temps overall. Nowadays it seems like the winters are bottled up into a smaller time period (Dec. to Feb.) with fewer, but bigger snowfalls. The variance of the winters seems to have increased, like its more "all-or-nothing" for our winters now. I guess my best example would be in the last 15 years, Baltimore's had its three snowiest winters ever and also two of its least snowiest. We didn't get a lot of 18+ inch storms decades ago but we also didn't get many winters like 01-02 or 97-98 either. Or just look at the snowfall records for November, March or April- nearly every record was set before 1960, etc.

[nj2va]

Nope. I assume the worst and hope for the best.

And I don't really think of it as "whining." That's pretty harsh.

Yep, I tell myself a few 1-2" events per winter and anything above and beyond is a win.

[EastCoast NPZ]

We have indeed seen a decline in seasonal average, much of which is due to the upward trend in the NAO from the late 1960's to the early-mid 2000's, also in the 2000's the frequency of La Nina increased (1999, 2000, 2001, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2011), offsetting a decline in the NAO during that decade, the storm track would predominately cut to the lakes in those years. Also the climate is somewhat warmer, though directly the effect would be minimal on snowfall at a few degrees, relative to a change in the NAO. To state the importance of the NAO, in April 2007 we recieved an inch of snow, which never thought possible.

Very interesting analysis.

How about March 1 2009? Generally about 6" in the DC area with temps dropping into the lower 20's when the ULL passed (first round was 30-33 degrees generally). Also winds gusted into the 45mph range behind the storm, creating ground-blizzard conditions at times, that is one of my first memories of near constant blowing snow.

Notta. Another miss. That's another thing that has really flipped here. Areas to the east often see more precip than us now, even frozen. I remember the storms where more frozen precip would fall out here than in NOVA / DC / Balt: Feb 1983, both Jan 1987 storms, March 1993, Jan 1996, etc. Just doesn't seem to happen that way anymore. In Dec 2009, Dulles got more then Front Royal (22 vs. 21), on Feb 5-6, 2010 Dulles again beat FR (32 vs. 26), on Feb 9-10, 2010 FR eeked out 3 inches while areas east and NE got whalloped, and you detailed another instance, and there are more. I also think we've warmed out here more than the rest of the region. I moved to Stephens City 14 months ago and it is warmer and drier than FR.

[EastCoast NPZ]

When I look through winter statistics for my area (Baltimore), it seems like the winters in the old days here were more consistent- more frequent, but smaller snowfalls for a much longer period (Nov. to April) and colder temps overall. Nowadays it seems like the winters are bottled up into a smaller time period (Dec. to Feb.) with fewer, but bigger snowfalls. The variance of the winters seems to have increased, like its more "all-or-nothing" for our winters now. I guess my best example would be in the last 15 years, Baltimore's had its three snowiest winters ever and also two of its least snowiest. We didn't get a lot of 18+ inch storms decades ago but we also didn't get many winters like 01-02 or 97-98 either. Or just look at the snowfall records for November, March or April- nearly every record was set before 1960, etc.

Those are my impressions too.

[BethesdaWX]

Notta. Another miss. That's another thing that has really flipped here. Areas to the east often see more precip than us now, even frozen. I remember the storms where more frozen precip would fall out here than in NOVA / DC / Balt: Feb 1983, both Jan 1987 storms, March 1993, Jan 1996, etc. Just doesn't seem to happen that way anymore. In Dec 2009, Dulles got more then Front Royal (22 vs. 21), on Feb 5-6, 2010 Dulles again beat FR (32 vs. 26), on Feb 9-10, 2010 FR eeked out 3 inches while areas east and NE got whalloped, and you detailed another instance, and there are more. I also think we've warmed out here more than the rest of the region. I moved to Stephens City 14 months ago and it is warmer and drier than FR.

Look at the storm track and the structure of the storms. Year 2009/10 featured an abnormally low NAO, the track and structure of the QPF field is determined by the pressure gradient somewhat, also how deep the low is, time of year, strength of the ridge out west & the varying differences on a global scale synoptically...don't think of it as "blank" doesn't happen "anymore", no aspect of weather will ever turn out the same, you just need to find the missing link imfo, and there are millions of "missing links". So just accept natural variability.

Very likely (imo) this winter will change your perspective, a tight gradient, yes, often times the MA suffers while the folks North & West Score, or we're on the brink, but in this case we might have a deeper -NAO than we otherwise would due to the solar factor, so whle my opinion means nothing to mother nature....there is that shot that the gradient may set up farther south than we'd be accustomed to in an average scenario (yes, our "averages" are based on a time period [[1950-2008]] where the solar wind/magnetic aspect has been high, and the NAO modulated in ways we haven't seen since the Dalton Minimum).

And I'm really not cold biased, I was fully expecting a blowtorch last winter...so maybe trusting me is a bad idea...

This winter has big-time potential, but part of that "potential" is a massive Screwing in a gradient orientation too far to the north as a result of an unfortunate placing of the block. It is a winter with high bust potential. If solar cycle 25 fails to start, and there is a good chance this is the case, recieving good snows in the M.A. may become a bit easier.....

[mitchnick]

...and here it is with better scaling:<img src="http://img694.imageshack.us/img694/1377/cd681416531254122210prc.png" />Now, compare to another metric... All years where June, July, and August were all negative in both the AO and NAO:<img src="http://img853.imageshack.us/img853/5606/cd68141653125411813prcp.png" />Two years that fit the most according to the summer AO and NAO:<img src="http://img200.imageshack.us/img200/1041/cd68141653125411537prcp.png" />

the bottom map includes winters of 58/59 and 09/10

talk about opposite winters

BWI 58/59 snowfall - 4"

BWI 09/10 snowfall - 77"

can we just have the average of the 2 and we'll call it a winter?

[uncle W]

the bottom map includes winters of 58/59 and 09/10

talk about opposite winters

BWI 58/59 snowfall - 4"

BWI 09/10 snowfall - 77"

can we just have the average of the 2 and we'll call it a winter?

I was 10 years old in 1959 and remember the snow to rain events that winter...There were a few of them...March was the snowiest month and it snowed on my birthday 3/28...It was a cold and snowless winter...Something we don't see any more...