Looking ahead to Winter 2011-2012?

[SoCoWx]

U say this every year

Canceling Winter every year is just as bad.

[EastCoast NPZ]

You all crack me up.

[BethesdaWX]

Canceling Winter every year is just as bad.

[Kmlwx]

weenie pic

Ji is the weenie.

[BethesdaWX]

Ji is the weenie.

Did he make a second account?

[Kmlwx]

Did he make a second account?

No but you sent the weenie to VA hippie - Ji is the weenie. Hippie is putting Ji where be belongs. He's not a weenie.

[BethesdaWX]

No but you sent the weenie to VA hippie - Ji is the weenie. Hippie is putting Ji where be belongs. He's not a weenie.

VA hippie is the anti-Ji, you'll find out soon enough, to the maxima

[DMADKAT]

You guys can call each other weenies all you want. Me the outdoor working plumber for 40 years everyday . I have seen this weather before. Its called the 1970's! With semi lower sun than anything else since, it clearly effected our weather alot with colder more extremes. Yes me (De MadKat) and Mr. kick ass low sun today are not weather weenies. Winter don't cancel here . Watch ! I think you guys over do it with all that tech stuff. Its really a lot more simple generally.

[NinjaWarrior2]

Winter could be good if we get everything to work out, Neutral to Weak La nina, -NAO phase, -QBO, winter could be decent but i dont expect any HECS this winter, maybe a MECS and a couple SECS. But i worry about the overall ENSO forecasts starting to get colder, wouldnt suprise me to get to mod nina

[WxUSAF]

maybe a MECS and a couple SECS

Glad to see you keeping your expectations low

[mitchnick]

Winter could be good if we get everything to work out, Neutral to Weak La nina, -NAO phase, -QBO, winter could be decent but i dont expect any HECS this winter, maybe a MECS and a couple SECS. But i worry about the overall ENSO forecasts starting to get colder, wouldnt suprise me to get to mod nina

HM, over on the NE sub forum, said that a NINA around -1.0 looking more likely

sooooo........

EDIT: and VAwxman seems to agree

[Jebman]

Northeast got anomalous noreaster in mid AUG and we got dry slotted

Starting to think this may be a NE winter

[Amped]

I say there could be a couple of SNECS next winter, but think it's a year for cutters unfortunately with the PDO and the weak NINA

[SoCoWx]

I love how people act like a La Nina is the harbinger of the end of the world for the East. lol. It's pretty funny. Either way, it's still gonna get cold, it's still gonna snow...it's Winter. lol.

[Kmlwx]

I love how people act like a La Nina is the harbinger of the end of the world for the East. lol. It's pretty funny. Either way, it's still gonna get cold, it's still gonna snow...it's Winter. lol.

Define "it's still gonna snow" are you going to count it even if it comes in the form of a few trace to an inch events?

There have been some pretty snowless winters around here.

[BethesdaWX]

I love how people act like a La Nina is the harbinger of the end of the world for the East. lol. It's pretty funny. Either way, it's still gonna get cold, it's still gonna snow...it's Winter. lol.

No, its mid August. You'll bask under that SE ridge and love it

In all seriousness, albiet the early timeframe, the QBO in July was +0.44 and heading down as the easterly shear area descends. A -QBO winter seems likely, but the -NAO may not be as dominant as it has in the past few winters. So a Moderate La Nina may not be a good thing, but it is too early to make specific speculations. After last winter with the +QBO, +IOD, and Strong La Nina MEI/Mod La Nina ONI, it is hard to rule out a deep dominating -NAO especially with the -QBO in place. AMO is cooler too.

What is it with snow geese starting these threads so soon?

[SoCoWx]

Define "it's still gonna snow" are you going to count it even if it comes in the form of a few trace to an inch events?

There have been some pretty snowless winters around here.

Yes, because it is still snow regardless. There has not been a Winter in my lifetime at least where snow has not fallen at all for the entire season.

And the last time a Winter like that happened was 2006-2007. We only received 0.75" of snow that year. We have a different set up this year. That was pretty much the driest Winter I've experienced that I remember.

[SoCoWx]

No, its mid August. You'll bask under that SE ridge and love it

In all seriousness, albiet the early timeframe, the QBO in July was +0.44 and heading down as the easterly shear area descends. A -QBO winter seems likely, but the -NAO may not be as dominant as it has in the past few winters. So a Moderate La Nina may not be a good thing, but it is too early to make specific speculations. After last winter with the +QBO, +IOD, and Strong La Nina MEI/Mod La Nina ONI, it is hard to rule out a deep dominating -NAO especially with the -QBO in place. AMO is cooler too.

What is it with snow geese starting these threads so soon?

This is true and to the same effect, the NAO may rule the roost again for all we know. Either way, I think the ridge will stay focused on the southern plains stretching into the SE from time to time...but its focus, I expect, will be over Texas. Like it has been all year.

[TalcottWx]

Yes, because it is still snow regardless. There has not been a Winter in my lifetime at least where snow has not fallen at all for the entire season.

And the last time a Winter like that happened was 2006-2007. We only received 0.75" of snow that year. We have a different set up this year. That was pretty much the driest Winter I've experienced that I remember.

If I saw 0.75" of snow in a year I would be on suicide watch. Your argument sucks. You had under an inch of snow and your trying to argue like that is suitable.

[mattie g]

If I saw 0.75" of snow in a year I would be on suicide watch. Your argument sucks. You had under an inch of snow and your trying to argue like that is suitable.

Then you better hide the rope for the next four years.

[SoCoWx]

If I saw 0.75" of snow in a year I would be on suicide watch. Your argument sucks. You had under an inch of snow and your trying to argue like that is suitable.

My average snowfall is 10" which is enough to suit me as it usually comes in smaller events over the WInter instead of all at one time which I'd prefer. If I want a smartass response when simply talking about a winter that was unbelievably dry here, I'll ask for one, thanks.

FYI, that was one Winter and the only Winter I can remember where that has happened. In the past two Winters we've had nearly 40" of Snow...

[DMADKAT]

My average snowfall is 10" which is enough to suit me as it usually comes in smaller events over the WInter instead of all at one time which I'd prefer. If I want a smartass response when simply talking about a winter that was unbelievably dry here, I'll ask for one, thanks.

FYI, that was one Winter and the only Winter I can remember where that has happened. In the past two Winters we've had nearly 40" of Snow...

Yes you being in Courtland Va, you know how Hampton Roads weather can be . I live in Chesapeake and snow in our area can make the weather guys go crazy. Its so hard to know for sure where the rain ,snow line will set up. Being by the water is what can make ya, or break ya. We can and do get some really heavy snowstorms in our area. The water which can kill you on snow can also be the reason for extremily high snow totals. We always have a higher humidity in this area. 1981 was the driest winter I remember where it was very cold but no snow .Chesapeake bay froze that winter. It usually snows 3 or 4 times every winter , buy every once in a while , Wow !! a 16 incher right after christmas last year .

[SoCoWx]

Yes you being in Courtland Va, you know how Hampton Roads weather can be . I live in Chesapeake and snow in our area can make the weather guys go crazy. Its so hard to know for sure where the rain ,snow line will set up. Being by the water is what can make ya, or break ya. We can and do get some really heavy snowstorms in our area. The water which can kill you on snow can also be the reason for extremily high snow totals. We always have a higher humidity in this area. 1981 was the driest winter I remember where it was very cold but no snow .Chesapeake bay froze that winter. It usually snows 3 or 4 times every winter , buy every once in a while , Wow !! a 16 incher right after christmas last year .

I would say here, in the inland fringes of HR this is TYPICALLY how it can shake out:

We MAY see a flurry or two around the last weekend of November. We usually see our first official flakes around the first weekend in December and typically see 1 or 2 December snowfalls. Maybe 3 if we're lucky (last year was very lucky). In January the cold deepens and the ponds and swamps freeze over somewhat. We typically see 2-4 Snow events this month. In February that number drops to 1 or 2 snows. And maybe a final snow in March.

Again, this is counting all snowfall whether it accumulates or not. If I was talking about only accumulating snow I would say we typically see AT LEAST 1 accumulating snow event here for every month from December to March. Winters like the past two have featured months where we get accumulating snows almost every weekend. (February 2010, December 2010)..,

[DMADKAT]

I would say here, in the inland fringes of HR this is TYPICALLY how it can shake out:

We MAY see a flurry or two around the last weekend of November. We usually see our first official flakes around the first weekend in December and typically see 1 or 2 December snowfalls. Maybe 3 if we're lucky (last year was very lucky). In January the cold deepens and the ponds and swamps freeze over somewhat. We typically see 2-4 Snow events this month. In February that number drops to 1 or 2 snows. And maybe a final snow in March.

Again, this is counting all snowfall whether it accumulates or not. If I was talking about only accumulating snow I would say we typically see AT LEAST 1 accumulating snow event here for every month from December to March. Winters like the past two have featured months where we get accumulating snows almost every weekend. (February 2010, December 2010)..,

Last year was special. A lot like the great winters of the 1970's .When i was a kid the cold and snow was a lot more common than it has been for the last 30 years. We are now returning to those great winters in the last 2 years. This low sunspot cycle is changing our climate a lot and we are just now starting to see the effects. The 4 accumulating snows last December was the first time I ever saw that in Norfolk in that early month. Wow even when compared to the 1970"s. Our weather here is a lot of fun to watch!

[SoCoWx]

Last year was special. A lot like the great winters of the 1970's .When i was a kid the cold and snow was a lot more common than it has been for the last 30 years. We are now returning to those great winters in the last 2 years. This low sunspot cycle is changing our climate a lot and we are just now starting to see the effects. The 4 accumulating snows last December was the first time I ever saw that in Norfolk in that early month. Wow even when compared to the 1970"s. Our weather here is a lot of fun to watch!

Indeed, if you don't like the weather in HR...just wait. IT'LL CHANGE!

[SoCoWx]

I'm bumping this up since we're now in Met Autumn and getting quite close to the cold season.

[violinist]

Yes, because it is still snow regardless. There has not been a Winter in my lifetime at least where snow has not fallen at all for the entire season.

And the last time a Winter like that happened was 2006-2007. We only received 0.75" of snow that year. We have a different set up this year. That was pretty much the driest Winter I've experienced that I remember.

then you aren't old enough to know any snowless winters. I have seen at least three in my lifetime and , if I remember correctly, 1995, the year of ICE, was one of the most recent. I,m not belittling you, just letting you know that your must be quite young to make this statement.. I,m over 60 so I have a broader database from which to speak.

[SoCoWx]

then you aren't old enough to know any snowless winters. I have seen at least three in my lifetime and , if I remember correctly, 1995, the year of ICE, was one of the most recent. I,m not belittling you, just letting you know that your must be quite young to make this statement.. I,m over 60 so I have a broader database from which to speak.

I was born in recent history yes, but not abnormally young. I'm turning 19.

Anyway...my father had kept snowfall records every year since I was born and once I was old enough I took it over. Flakes have fallen every year here. Some people dont want to bother considering it snow if it doesn't stick and accumulate but it is. So I count it into my calculations.

[violinist]

I was born in recent history yes, but not abnormally young. I'm turning 19.

Anyway...my father had kept snowfall records every year since I was born and once I was old enough I took it over. Flakes have fallen every year here. Some people dont want to bother considering it snow if it doesn't stick and accumulate but it is. So I count it into my calculations.

it is also unlikely that you got the freezing rain that we got in the dc/balto area, during that year. You were all snow for that period. So you probably have had all snow falling in your location.every year that you have been alive.

[snowdude]

We can still do well in weak La Ninas in DC. It isn't the end of the world.