Looking ahead to Winter 2011-2012?

[DMADKAT]

My average snowfall is 10" which is enough to suit me as it usually comes in smaller events over the WInter instead of all at one time which I'd prefer. If I want a smartass response when simply talking about a winter that was unbelievably dry here, I'll ask for one, thanks.

FYI, that was one Winter and the only Winter I can remember where that has happened. In the past two Winters we've had nearly 40" of Snow...

Yes you being in Courtland Va, you know how Hampton Roads weather can be . I live in Chesapeake and snow in our area can make the weather guys go crazy. Its so hard to know for sure where the rain ,snow line will set up. Being by the water is what can make ya, or break ya. We can and do get some really heavy snowstorms in our area. The water which can kill you on snow can also be the reason for extremily high snow totals. We always have a higher humidity in this area. 1981 was the driest winter I remember where it was very cold but no snow .Chesapeake bay froze that winter. It usually snows 3 or 4 times every winter , buy every once in a while , Wow !! a 16 incher right after christmas last year .

[SoCoWx]

Yes you being in Courtland Va, you know how Hampton Roads weather can be . I live in Chesapeake and snow in our area can make the weather guys go crazy. Its so hard to know for sure where the rain ,snow line will set up. Being by the water is what can make ya, or break ya. We can and do get some really heavy snowstorms in our area. The water which can kill you on snow can also be the reason for extremily high snow totals. We always have a higher humidity in this area. 1981 was the driest winter I remember where it was very cold but no snow .Chesapeake bay froze that winter. It usually snows 3 or 4 times every winter , buy every once in a while , Wow !! a 16 incher right after christmas last year .

I would say here, in the inland fringes of HR this is TYPICALLY how it can shake out:

We MAY see a flurry or two around the last weekend of November. We usually see our first official flakes around the first weekend in December and typically see 1 or 2 December snowfalls. Maybe 3 if we're lucky (last year was very lucky). In January the cold deepens and the ponds and swamps freeze over somewhat. We typically see 2-4 Snow events this month. In February that number drops to 1 or 2 snows. And maybe a final snow in March.

Again, this is counting all snowfall whether it accumulates or not. If I was talking about only accumulating snow I would say we typically see AT LEAST 1 accumulating snow event here for every month from December to March. Winters like the past two have featured months where we get accumulating snows almost every weekend. (February 2010, December 2010)..,

[DMADKAT]

I would say here, in the inland fringes of HR this is TYPICALLY how it can shake out:

We MAY see a flurry or two around the last weekend of November. We usually see our first official flakes around the first weekend in December and typically see 1 or 2 December snowfalls. Maybe 3 if we're lucky (last year was very lucky). In January the cold deepens and the ponds and swamps freeze over somewhat. We typically see 2-4 Snow events this month. In February that number drops to 1 or 2 snows. And maybe a final snow in March.

Again, this is counting all snowfall whether it accumulates or not. If I was talking about only accumulating snow I would say we typically see AT LEAST 1 accumulating snow event here for every month from December to March. Winters like the past two have featured months where we get accumulating snows almost every weekend. (February 2010, December 2010)..,

Last year was special. A lot like the great winters of the 1970's .When i was a kid the cold and snow was a lot more common than it has been for the last 30 years. We are now returning to those great winters in the last 2 years. This low sunspot cycle is changing our climate a lot and we are just now starting to see the effects. The 4 accumulating snows last December was the first time I ever saw that in Norfolk in that early month. Wow even when compared to the 1970"s. Our weather here is a lot of fun to watch!

[SoCoWx]

Last year was special. A lot like the great winters of the 1970's .When i was a kid the cold and snow was a lot more common than it has been for the last 30 years. We are now returning to those great winters in the last 2 years. This low sunspot cycle is changing our climate a lot and we are just now starting to see the effects. The 4 accumulating snows last December was the first time I ever saw that in Norfolk in that early month. Wow even when compared to the 1970"s. Our weather here is a lot of fun to watch!

Indeed, if you don't like the weather in HR...just wait. IT'LL CHANGE!

[SoCoWx]

I'm bumping this up since we're now in Met Autumn and getting quite close to the cold season.

[violinist]

Yes, because it is still snow regardless. There has not been a Winter in my lifetime at least where snow has not fallen at all for the entire season.

And the last time a Winter like that happened was 2006-2007. We only received 0.75" of snow that year. We have a different set up this year. That was pretty much the driest Winter I've experienced that I remember.

then you aren't old enough to know any snowless winters. I have seen at least three in my lifetime and , if I remember correctly, 1995, the year of ICE, was one of the most recent. I,m not belittling you, just letting you know that your must be quite young to make this statement.. I,m over 60 so I have a broader database from which to speak.

[SoCoWx]

then you aren't old enough to know any snowless winters. I have seen at least three in my lifetime and , if I remember correctly, 1995, the year of ICE, was one of the most recent. I,m not belittling you, just letting you know that your must be quite young to make this statement.. I,m over 60 so I have a broader database from which to speak.

I was born in recent history yes, but not abnormally young. I'm turning 19.

Anyway...my father had kept snowfall records every year since I was born and once I was old enough I took it over. Flakes have fallen every year here. Some people dont want to bother considering it snow if it doesn't stick and accumulate but it is. So I count it into my calculations.

[violinist]

I was born in recent history yes, but not abnormally young. I'm turning 19.

Anyway...my father had kept snowfall records every year since I was born and once I was old enough I took it over. Flakes have fallen every year here. Some people dont want to bother considering it snow if it doesn't stick and accumulate but it is. So I count it into my calculations.

it is also unlikely that you got the freezing rain that we got in the dc/balto area, during that year. You were all snow for that period. So you probably have had all snow falling in your location.every year that you have been alive.

[snowdude]

We can still do well in weak La Ninas in DC. It isn't the end of the world.

[mitchnick]

We can still do well in weak La Ninas in DC. It isn't the end of the world.

I agree, and the East QBO will do the trick........I hope

[uncle W]

We might see another Neg A O winter coming up...Since 1950 Aug. 2011 has the third lowest AO index...all the analogs below had a lower AO value in the winter months.....

year...Aug.AO index...Winters low value

1977.....-1.412.....-3.014 Feb...

1964.....-1.207.....-2.084 Feb...

2011.....-1.063.....-???

1960.....-1.008.....-1.506 Jan...

1950.....-0.851.....-1.928 Dec...

1987.....-0.836.....-1.066 Feb...

1986.....-0.826.....-1.473 Feb...

[Nikolai]

DC is going to be cold/dry and probably going to get 10-15" of snow, front-loaded. Winter won't be bad & December will feel great, but legitimate winter (aka snow threats) is only going to last till mid-January.

It's basically the best way to get only a limited amount of snow, even if seasonal totals are only around a foot.

S of DC is going to be screwed.

[Fozz]

I haven't seen any and I am 39....there are no snowless winters.....

1997-98

[snowdude]

1997-98

didn't we have 0.01"? Not snowless technically

[SoCoWx]

DC is going to be cold/dry and probably going to get 10-15" of snow, front-loaded. Winter won't be bad & December will feel great, but legitimate winter (aka snow threats) is only going to last till mid-January.

It's basically the best way to get only a limited amount of snow, even if seasonal totals are only around a foot.

S of DC is going to be screwed.

Matter of opinion. The way the teleconnections are going again, I honestly feel December will be a good month for many folks in the east, even south of DC. Last year didnt strike me as a typical La Nina, and at the moment this one doesnt either.

[nj2va]

That is the closest you will get and almost everyone in DC metro saw snow fall and stick that winter....12/9/97 it snowed that morning and stuck for pretty much everyone....the other events it depended where you were.....12/29 was a decent event for a fair amount....3/3 was another ok event for northern areas....there were a bunch of other minor events depending where you were....The idea that DC metro gets snowless winters is a canard....it doesn't happen...it snows and sticks every winter for almost everyone....I can't speak for central/southern VA....same in 72-73....pretty much everyone saw accumulating snow.....If you post on this board and live in DC metro you will see accumulating snow every winter....guaranteed....It is a lock

Serious question....how do you remember it snowing on a particular day 14 years ago?

[Fozz]

Serious question....how do you remember it snowing on a particular day 14 years ago?

I remember some small events from 2002-03 pretty well, like 1/5/03 (an overperforming Alberta clipper, 3-5") and another storm from 1/17 that brought an inch to DC and Philly and 7" to Nashville and parts of SE Virginia.

Of course, I was 12 back then so I can't go too much further back.

[nj2va]

I remember some small events from 2002-03 pretty well, like 1/5/03 (an overperforming Alberta clipper, 3-5") and another storm from 1/17 that brought an inch to DC and Philly and 7" to Nashville and parts of SE Virginia.

Of course, I was 12 back then so I can't go too much further back.

I don't remember every snow event, but I remember a lot of them....It only snows and sticks on average probably 7 times a winter

Yeah, I definitely remember the more memorable events and storms that earned names (psuhoffman ), but I'm impressed when I see posts mentioning snow on so and so (the "random" events). Impressive!

[snowdude]

Serious question....how do you remember it snowing on a particular day 14 years ago?

I remember many snow event dates because I love snow and I love the weather so it's easy to remember something I enjoyed so much.

[mattie g]

I remember many snow event dates because I love snow and I love the weather so it's easy to remember something I enjoyed so much.

Besides, it doesn't snow here much, so it's not like there's all that much to remember.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Besides, it doesn't snow here much, so it's not like there's all that much to remember.

Is it your strategy to whine about snow to the point that you think it will snow? Sort of a reverse psychology type of thing?

[EastCoast NPZ]

Is it your strategy to whine about snow to the point that you think it will snow? Sort of a reverse psychology type of thing?

If so, give up. I've tried that strategy for years and it hasn't worked.

[BethesdaWX]

If so, give up. I've tried that strategy for years and it hasn't worked.

You're lucky to live in one of the best decades for HECS. We've had 3 "big ones" (or 4 depending on location) in the past 7yrs, PDII, DEC 2009, FEB 2010 snowmagedddon, the blizzard that followed on FEB10 was probably as good as it gets in actually verifying blizzard warnings. The MA just isn't a very snowy climate consistantly.

[Bob Chill]

We might see another Neg A O winter coming up...Since 1950 Aug. 2011 has the third lowest AO index...all the analogs below had a lower AO value in the winter months.....

year...Aug.AO index...Winters low value

1977.....-1.412.....-3.014 Feb...

1964.....-1.207.....-2.084 Feb...

2011.....-1.063.....-???

1960.....-1.008.....-1.506 Jan...

1950.....-0.851.....-1.928 Dec...

1987.....-0.836.....-1.066 Feb...

1986.....-0.826.....-1.473 Feb...

Weenie porn alert. Simply taking those AO August analogs and running a DJF temp and precip anom against 1950-2007 averages for the following winter looks like this:

Temp:

Precip:

Not using enso in the analog years and such a small set makes these maps pretty flawed but just going on the August AO alone indicates potential for a cool winter. The -NAO/-AO cycle we are in has been pretty persistant. Last year's DJF temps were unexpected in the MA by most.

[EastCoast NPZ]

You're lucky to live in one of the best decades for HECS. We've had 3 "big ones" (or 4 depending on location) in the past 7yrs, PDII, DEC 2009, FEB 2010 snowmagedddon, the blizzard that followed on FEB10 was probably as good as it gets in actually verifying blizzard warnings. The MA just isn't a very snowy climate consistantly.

Only 3 here. Feb 9 -10 was a dud (3 in.).

While we have had more numberous HECS in recent years, it seems we've had a marked decline in snowstorm frequency (non-HECS and non-MECS), and certainly a major decrease in cold air and snow cover duration. I've lived in this area all my 40 years. As a kid my whole family owned ice-skates and used to at least semi-routinely ice-skate on nearby ponds in the winter. I can sure remember long stretches of white ground and lots and lots of sledding growing up. There hasn't been ice thick enough here to skate on in years and years. We don't seem to get the run-of-the-mill 4-inch snow storms any more, and certainly not ones that stick around to get snowed on again (the obvious exception being Feb 2010). Heck, we haven't had a measurable snow here in March since 1993. No, the mid-atlantic is not the snow-lover's paradise, but there was a time when out here - at least - we had legitimate winter. IDK, maybe the 70's were just atypically cold and snowy.

[okie333]

Weenie porn alert. Simply taking those AO August analogs and running a DJF temp anom against 1950-2007 averages for the following winter looks like this:

Temp:

Not using enso in the analog years and such a small set makes these maps pretty flawed but just going on the August AO alone indicates potential for a cool winter. The -NAO/-AO cycle we are in has been pretty persistant. Last year's DJF temps were unexpected in the MA by most.

...and here it is with better scaling:

Now, compare to another metric... All years where June, July, and August were all negative in both the AO and NAO:

Two years that fit the most according to the summer AO and NAO:

[nj2va]

Weenie porn alert. Simply taking those AO August analogs and running a DJF temp and precip anom against 1950-2007 averages for the following winter looks like this:

Temp:

(snip)

Precip:

(snip)

Not using enso in the analog years and such a small set makes these maps pretty flawed but just going on the August AO alone indicates potential for a cool winter. The -NAO/-AO cycle we are in has been pretty persistant. Last year's DJF temps were unexpected in the MA by most.

You're right, that is porn.

[mattie g]

Is it your strategy to whine about snow to the point that you think it will snow? Sort of a reverse psychology type of thing?

Nope. I assume the worst and hope for the best.

And I don't really think of it as "whining." That's pretty harsh.

[BethesdaWX]

Only 3 here. Feb 9 -10 was a dud (3 in.).

While we have had more numberous HECS in recent years, it seems we've had a marked decline in snowstorm frequency (non-HECS and non-MECS), and certainly a major decrease in cold air and snow cover duration. I've lived in this area all my 40 years. As a kid my whole family owned ice-skates and used to at least semi-routinely ice-skate on nearby ponds in the winter. I can sure remember long stretches of white ground and lots and lots of sledding growing up. There hasn't been ice thick enough here to skate on in years and years. We don't seem to get the run-of-the-mill 4-inch snow storms any more, and certainly not ones that stick around to get snowed on again (the obvious exception being Feb 2010). No, the mid-atlantic is not the snow-lover's paradise, but there was a time when out here - at least - we had legitimate winter. IDK, maybe the 70's were just atypically cold and snowy.

We have indeed seen a decline in seasonal average, much of which is due to the upward trend in the NAO from the late 1960's to the early-mid 2000's, also in the 2000's the frequency of La Nina increased (1999, 2000, 2001, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2011), offsetting a decline in the NAO during that decade, the storm track would predominately cut to the lakes in those years. Also the climate is somewhat warmer, though directly the effect would be minimal on snowfall at a few degrees, relative to a change in the NAO. To state the importance of the NAO, in April 2007 we recieved an inch of snow, which never thought possible.

Heck, we haven't had a measurable snow here in March since 1993.

How about March 1 2009? Generally about 6" in the DC area with temps dropping into the lower 20's when the ULL passed (first round was 30-33 degrees generally). Also winds gusted into the 45mph range behind the storm, creating ground-blizzard conditions at times, that is one of my first memories of near constant blowing snow.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

Only 3 here. Feb 9 -10 was a dud (3 in.).

While we have had more numberous HECS in recent years, it seems we've had a marked decline in snowstorm frequency (non-HECS and non-MECS), and certainly a major decrease in cold air and snow cover duration. I've lived in this area all my 40 years. As a kid my whole family owned ice-skates and used to at least semi-routinely ice-skate on nearby ponds in the winter. I can sure remember long stretches of white ground and lots and lots of sledding growing up. There hasn't been ice thick enough here to skate on in years and years. We don't seem to get the run-of-the-mill 4-inch snow storms any more, and certainly not ones that stick around to get snowed on again (the obvious exception being Feb 2010). Heck, we haven't had a measurable snow here in March since 1993. No, the mid-atlantic is not the snow-lover's paradise, but there was a time when out here - at least - we had legitimate winter. IDK, maybe the 70's were just atypically cold and snowy.

When I look through winter statistics for my area (Baltimore), it seems like the winters in the old days here were more consistent- more frequent, but smaller snowfalls for a much longer period (Nov. to April) and colder temps overall. Nowadays it seems like the winters are bottled up into a smaller time period (Dec. to Feb.) with fewer, but bigger snowfalls. The variance of the winters seems to have increased, like its more "all-or-nothing" for our winters now. I guess my best example would be in the last 15 years, Baltimore's had its three snowiest winters ever and also two of its least snowiest. We didn't get a lot of 18+ inch storms decades ago but we also didn't get many winters like 01-02 or 97-98 either. Or just look at the snowfall records for November, March or April- nearly every record was set before 1960, etc.