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Looking ahead to Winter 2011-2012?


Ji

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You guys can call each other weenies all you want. Me the outdoor working plumber for 40 years everyday . I have seen this weather before. Its called the 1970's! With semi lower sun than anything else since, it clearly effected our weather alot with colder more extremes. Yes me (De MadKat) and Mr. kick ass low sun today are not weather weenies. Winter don't cancel here . Watch ! I think you guys over do it with all that tech stuff. Its really a lot more simple generally.

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Winter could be good if we get everything to work out, Neutral to Weak La nina, -NAO phase, -QBO, winter could be decent but i dont expect any HECS this winter, maybe a MECS and a couple SECS. But i worry about the overall ENSO forecasts starting to get colder, wouldnt suprise me to get to mod nina

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Winter could be good if we get everything to work out, Neutral to Weak La nina, -NAO phase, -QBO, winter could be decent but i dont expect any HECS this winter, maybe a MECS and a couple SECS. But i worry about the overall ENSO forecasts starting to get colder, wouldnt suprise me to get to mod nina

HM, over on the NE sub forum, said that a NINA around -1.0 looking more likely

sooooo........

EDIT: and VAwxman seems to agree

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I love how people act like a La Nina is the harbinger of the end of the world for the East. lol. It's pretty funny. Either way, it's still gonna get cold, it's still gonna snow...it's Winter. lol.

Define "it's still gonna snow" are you going to count it even if it comes in the form of a few trace to an inch events?

There have been some pretty snowless winters around here.

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I love how people act like a La Nina is the harbinger of the end of the world for the East. lol. It's pretty funny. Either way, it's still gonna get cold, it's still gonna snow...it's Winter. lol.

No, its mid August. You'll bask under that SE ridge and love it ;)

In all seriousness, albiet the early timeframe, the QBO in July was +0.44 and heading down as the easterly shear area descends. A -QBO winter seems likely, but the -NAO may not be as dominant as it has in the past few winters. So a Moderate La Nina may not be a good thing, but it is too early to make specific speculations. After last winter with the +QBO, +IOD, and Strong La Nina MEI/Mod La Nina ONI, it is hard to rule out a deep dominating -NAO especially with the -QBO in place. AMO is cooler too.

What is it with snow geese starting these threads so soon?

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Define "it's still gonna snow" are you going to count it even if it comes in the form of a few trace to an inch events?

There have been some pretty snowless winters around here.

Yes, because it is still snow regardless. There has not been a Winter in my lifetime at least where snow has not fallen at all for the entire season.

And the last time a Winter like that happened was 2006-2007. We only received 0.75" of snow that year. We have a different set up this year. That was pretty much the driest Winter I've experienced that I remember.

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No, its mid August. You'll bask under that SE ridge and love it ;)

In all seriousness, albiet the early timeframe, the QBO in July was +0.44 and heading down as the easterly shear area descends. A -QBO winter seems likely, but the -NAO may not be as dominant as it has in the past few winters. So a Moderate La Nina may not be a good thing, but it is too early to make specific speculations. After last winter with the +QBO, +IOD, and Strong La Nina MEI/Mod La Nina ONI, it is hard to rule out a deep dominating -NAO especially with the -QBO in place. AMO is cooler too.

What is it with snow geese starting these threads so soon?

This is true and to the same effect, the NAO may rule the roost again for all we know. Either way, I think the ridge will stay focused on the southern plains stretching into the SE from time to time...but its focus, I expect, will be over Texas. Like it has been all year.

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Yes, because it is still snow regardless. There has not been a Winter in my lifetime at least where snow has not fallen at all for the entire season.

And the last time a Winter like that happened was 2006-2007. We only received 0.75" of snow that year. We have a different set up this year. That was pretty much the driest Winter I've experienced that I remember.

If I saw 0.75" of snow in a year I would be on suicide watch. Your argument sucks. You had under an inch of snow and your trying to argue like that is suitable.

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If I saw 0.75" of snow in a year I would be on suicide watch. Your argument sucks. You had under an inch of snow and your trying to argue like that is suitable.

My average snowfall is 10" which is enough to suit me as it usually comes in smaller events over the WInter instead of all at one time which I'd prefer. If I want a smartass response when simply talking about a winter that was unbelievably dry here, I'll ask for one, thanks.

FYI, that was one Winter and the only Winter I can remember where that has happened. In the past two Winters we've had nearly 40" of Snow...

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