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Looking ahead to Winter 2011-2012?

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

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BethesdaWX

BethesdaWX

Posted
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Well on the Atlantic side there is the -NAO/-AO. On a larger scale there is -QBO which reinforces the change of a greenland block. We're also in a state of relatively low solar output, continuing the minimum we've been in. A few CME's does not an active sun make. One thing that will have to be watched is where the aleutian ridge sets up.

What? I don't think it is CME's as much as the Solar Wind in general, as we see it stronger as of late, actually, it has been truckin' pretty good lately. I was asking for your reasoning, explaining why a block similar to 2010-11 should occur again. Are you saying the QBO flip & thus more tolerable modulations of SSW events at proper heights will alone be enough to overcome the increase in the solar wind? If so, why? Not that I don't somewhat agree with that, but why? I don't know...and I'm sure neither do you.

I hope I'm not coming off as a hardass, I'm just confused maybe. Your Quote" The way the Teleconnectors are setting up", was just a bit vague.

Also ever thought where the "Aleutian Ridge" Sets up may be determined by the very factors you state will cause a massive -NAO? I don't understand that either.

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SoCoWx

SoCoWx

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What? I don't think it is CME's as much as the Solar Wind in general, as we see it stronger as of late, actually, it has been truckin' pretty good lately. I was asking for your reasoning, explaining why a block similar to 2010-11 should occur again. Are you saying the QBO flip & thus more tolerable modulations of SSW events at proper heights will alone be enough to overcome the increase in the solar wind? If so, why? Not that I don't somewhat agree with that, but why? I don't know...and I'm sure neither do you.

I hope I'm not coming off as a hardass, I'm just confused maybe. Your Quote" The way the Teleconnectors are setting up", was just a bit vague.

Also ever thought where the "Aleutian Ridge" Sets up may be determined by the very factors you state will cause a massive -NAO? I don't understand that either.

That may be the case but the Sun overall isn't abnormally active and its still rather inactive and weak. When I start seeing tons of sunspots then I will think differently about that.

And FYI, I never said a block similar to last winter would occur... I do think we will see a Greenland Block. I dont think this Winter will be as good as last Winter. At the same time, I dont think it will be an abnormally dry, warm winter either. Solar wind is a factor, but just ONE factor. And yes, the other factors could have an influence on where the Aleutian Ridge sets up. The thing is, every other oscillation could be in favor of a cold Winter BUT if the Aleutian Ridge is not aligned or placed properly as some have stated on these forums, you can get a warm winter in the Mid-Atl very easily.

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BethesdaWX

BethesdaWX

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That may be the case but the Sun overall isn't abnormally active and its still rather inactive and weak. When I start seeing tons of sunspots then I will think differently about that.

And FYI, I never said a block similar to last winter would occur... I do think we will see a Greenland Block. I dont think this Winter will be as good as last Winter. At the same time, I dont think it will be an abnormally dry, warm winter either. Solar wind is a factor, but just ONE factor. And yes, the other factors could have an influence on where the Aleutian Ridge sets up. The thing is, every other oscillation could be in favor of a cold Winter BUT if the Aleutian Ridge is not aligned or placed properly as some have stated on these forums, you can get a warm winter in the Mid-Atl very easily.

Umm, k. All I wanted was reasoning behind your earlier statements.

And the Solar Sunspot cycles do not have any significant correlation to the NAO, otherwise we'd have massive 11yr swings from positivity to negativity. Its is magnetic discharge/wind that is being studied my most folks. You can have many weak sunspots, facing away from the earth, etc, with little discharge towards earth, individual strength, unipolar clusters producing CME's, equatorial vs Hemispheric sunspots, what matters is what actually gets to earth.

Forgive me, I am for some reason having a hard time understanding your rationale here. You say the Sun Activity Flux is just one driver...very true, but what "other factors" are you looking at? Thanks! :)

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SoCoWx

SoCoWx

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Umm, k. All I wanted was reasoning behind your earlier statements.

And the Solar Sunspot cycles do not have any significant correlation to the NAO, otherwise we'd have massive 11yr swings from positivity to negativity. Its is magnetic discharge/wind that is being studied my most folks. You can have many weak sunspots, facing away from the earth, etc, with little discharge towards earth, individual strength, unipolar clusters producing CME's, equatorial vs Hemispheric sunspots, what matters is what actually gets to earth.

Forgive me, I am for some reason having a hard time understanding your rationale here. You say the Sun Activity Flux is just one driver...very true, but what "other factors" are you looking at? Thanks! :)

The more sunspots, the more radiation coming from the sun to the Earth. The less sunspots the less radiation. They are connected. Maybe not strongly connected, but what I state is usually the case. I have explained my thoughts the best I can.

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BethesdaWX

BethesdaWX

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The more sunspots, the more radiation coming from the sun to the Earth. The less sunspots the less radiation. They are connected. Maybe not strongly connected, but what I state is usually the case. I have explained my thoughts the best I can.

IR from the Sun only varies by 0.25W/m^2 between solar cycles at most, and as you said, if there is any effect it is not measurable. Overall changes through IR are not the culprit for NAO changes.

ugh, well fine then, I was hoping for an in depth discussion, we haven't even scratched the surface.

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WVclimo

WVclimo

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I'd gladly take a repeat of last winter when I got 80% of normal snowfall, but with many dynamic systems. I saw a decade's worth of rain to snow situations last year.

Unfortunately, I expect a winter more like 2008-09 when, despite one bone chilling January cold snap that dropped my temps to -5F, I only recorded 5" of snow for the season.

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

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I'd gladly take a repeat of last winter when I got 80% of normal snowfall, but with many dynamic systems. I saw a decade's worth of rain to snow situations last year.

Unfortunately, I expect a winter more like 2008-09 when, despite one bone chilling January cold snap that dropped my temps to -5F, I only recorded 5" of snow for the season.

If it happens, I'll be staring down my first suspension from this board.

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aldie 22

aldie 22

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I think today we just looked ahead to winter 2011-2012

These storm misses happen like this all of the time out here...even in 09...not sure this has anything to do with winter...it only stinks because you sat here and watched it fall apart after looking at models saying it was going to rain. I stopped paying attention so much and trust me it really is no big deal...just another day it didn't rain is all.

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SoCoWx

SoCoWx

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Then why do you live in Southeast VA dude? At least try Chicago.

Also detecting sarcasm is kinda important :)

I find snowfall here much more beautiful and unique than when it happens somehwere where it snows on a regular basis. I'm picky. If I had to see it all the time and was buried under feet of it, it would just be boring.

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Ellinwood

Ellinwood

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I find snowfall here much more beautiful and unique than when it happens somehwere where it snows on a regular basis. I'm picky. If I had to see it all the time and was buried under feet of it, it would just be boring.

Got that right. While I do hate snow, I don't hate it as much as I used to (when I was still up in NY). The trade-off is no one down here knows how to drive in it :gun_bandana:

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

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Snowfall forecast: 90-125% of normal throughout the region. Overall precip is normal (N+W) to slightly below normal (SE).

This is a big post guys. This guy is money on snowfall forecasting until somebody proves to me that he's not.

I don't know why everybody is so bummed about what happened with this storm and what it implies for winter. We wouldn't have done well in the winter with this past storm setup, but there's no reason to believe that every situation we get this winter will be this type of setup.

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mattie g

mattie g

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This is a big post guys. This guy is money on snowfall forecasting until somebody proves to me that he's not.

I don't know why everybody is so bummed about what happened with this storm and what it implies for winter. We wouldn't have done well in the winter with this past storm setup, but there's no reason to believe that every situation we get this winter will be this type of setup.

They steal our snow.

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