Looking ahead to Winter 2011-2012?

[PhineasC]

The weather will do what it wants, regardless of ridiculous correlations generated from statistically insignificant data.

Why do you post here?

[River Card]

What are the odds on a second year nina event, in the weak stage, to produce a rather strong SE ridge? I have heard this has happened before, and second, do second year nina events tend to be a little less active?

Thanks.

[SoCoWx]

What are the odds on a second year nina event, in the weak stage, to produce a rather strong SE ridge? I have heard this has happened before, and second, do second year nina events tend to be a little less active?

Thanks.

Since strong La Nina's (what we just had) typically result in a SE death ridge and completely cut off the STJ, it would be safe to assume with a weak La Nina and what looks to possibly be a -NAO/-AO/-QBO winter, that it would be more active. Maybe not unusually active, but more active than is typical in a healthy La Nina state.

[BethesdaWX]

Since strong La Nina's (what we just had) typically result in a SE death ridge and completely cut off the STJ, it would be safe to assume with a weak La Nina and what looks to possibly be a -NAO/-AO/-QBO winter, that it would be more active. Maybe not unusually active, but more active than is typical in a healthy La Nina state.

Its July, kinda early to worry about winter since things can change between now and september/october in a heartbeat. We have 5 months.

And I do not think a winter being "active" means much...we had many storms to track last winter, most were screw jobs, but what you're thinking of are the models...(I presume)? What they show out in fantasy-land should not really be discussed. So if you take that out of the equation, it was not "active" last winter, it is an illusion. But if we indeed experience another hefty -NAO, there is a likely chance of at least something to track, DC has never had a snowless winter, it'll snow, no point in thinking about it now.

Can we let this thread sink to the bottom of the page now?

[SoCoWx]

Its July, kinda early to worry about winter since things can change between now and september/october in a heartbeat. We have 5 months.

And I do not think a winter being "active" means much...we had many storms to track last winter, most were screw jobs, but what you're thinking of are the models...(I presume)? What they show out in fantasy-land should not really be discussed. So if you take that out of the equation, it was not "active" last winter, it is an illusion. But if we indeed experience another hefty -NAO, there is a likely chance of at least something to track, DC has never had a snowless winter, it'll snow, no point in thinking about it now.

Can we let this thread sink to the bottom of the page now?

No, because some people like tracking the teleconnections during the Summer to begin working on their winter forecasts. Plus, August starts tomorrow and that is the month when winter talk starts to creep into the weather forums more often as it means Summer is nearing its end.

[winter_warlock]

No, because some people like tracking the teleconnections during the Summer to begin working on their winter forecasts. Plus, August starts tomorrow and that is the month when winter talk starts to creep into the weather forums more often as it means Summer is nearing its end.

i agree, and in august and sept is when the farmers almanack and all the prognosticators give there winter outlooks. now i dont put alot of stock in the almanacks but its still fun to see which one actually gets the closest. regardless still only 122 days till meteorological winter( DEC 1ST)

[Ji]

Jb on twitter

Caution though folks. Major heat has telegraphed major cold within 6 months in this pattern. Wild winter may lurk again much of U.S

[marked8]

Four months until meteorological winter

[mattie g]

Four months until meteorological winter

Four months of decent weather and not having to wrap yourself up when you go outside. Four more months of things living and not dying, of leaves on trees and not a dead world colored s**t brown.

[Kmlwx]

Four months of decent weather and not having to wrap yourself up when you go outside. Four more months of things living and not dying, of leaves on trees and not a dead world colored s**t brown.

Depressing...

It's easier to warm up than it is to cool down IMO.

[aldie 22]

Four months of decent weather and not having to wrap yourself up when you go outside. Four more months of things living and not dying, of leaves on trees and not a dead world colored s**t brown.

Seems to me that the heat and dry have lots of things dying and leaves falling from the trees and pretty much anything that was green is brown unless someone is watering right now....so I guess we have 7 months of the above to live through unless things break here pretty soon.

As far as winter goes...we used to talk about how certain patterns have a hard time sustaining for real long periods...assuming this dry/hot pattern goes through early Fall...I think we may have a shot at least a cold winter...I've always said give me cold first so any moisture that comes would bare fruit....who knows though...we will see soon enough.

[mattie g]

Seems to me that the heat and dry have lots of things dying and leaves falling from the trees and pretty much anything that was green is brown unless someone is watering right now....so I guess we have 7 months of the above to live through unless things break here pretty soon.

As far as winter goes...we used to talk about how certain patterns have a hard time sustaining for real long periods...assuming this dry/hot pattern goes through early Fall...I think we may have a shot at least a cold winter...I've always said give me cold first so any moisture that comes would bare fruit....who knows though...we will see soon enough.

Plenty of cold around last winter...just no moisture to be found around these parts.

[Bob Chill]

The SE weenie heartbreaking ridge has been at bay last couple of years. It should have been there last year but the persistant -AO/-NAO pattern beat it down pretty good.

One would argue that the odds of a decent winter are higher than a torch.

The DC/Balt corridor was only 100 miles away from a really good winter last year. Even though it hurt to watch it was still a really good EC winter for most areas. Having that in the face of a big NINA was unexcpected.

[uncle W]

Jb on twitter

Caution though folks. Major heat has telegraphed major cold within 6 months in this pattern. Wild winter may lurk again much of U.S

the AO was pretty low for June and if we are in a negative faze of the ao the east coast could get another decent winter...DC is always a tough call and after 2009-10 anything under 20" would be a disappointment...enso should be negative but weak...There are exceptions to JB's Major cold theory after a hot Summer.....

the hot summer/cold winter years

1955

1966

1977

1980

1983

1993

1995

2002

2010

not so for

1953

1988

1991

1999

[marked8]

Four months of decent weather and not having to wrap yourself up when you go outside. Four more months of things living and not dying, of leaves on trees and not a dead world colored s**t brown.

I'll take 30 degrees with a crisp chill and fresh 6-8 inch snowfall over 104 degree heat with a 126 HI any day of the week. It will be nice to enjoy a cigar outside without being soaked 5 minutes in and being eaten by mosquitoes. I don't have to worry about sunburn in the winter either. Sledding, skiing and playing in the snow with the 4X4. Those are what I call fun times.

[mitchnick]

Jb on twitter

Caution though folks. Major heat has telegraphed major cold within 6 months in this pattern. Wild winter may lurk again much of U.S

or it may not

[mattie g]

I'll take 30 degrees with a crisp chill and fresh 6-8 inch snowfall over 104 degree heat with a 126 HI any day of the week. It will be nice to enjoy a cigar outside without being soaked 5 minutes in and being eaten by mosquitoes. I don't have to worry about sunburn in the winter either. Sledding, skiing and playing in the snow with the 4X4. Those are what I call fun times.

104 with a 126 HI doesn't happen very often. But temps in the teens and 20s with biting wind that makes your face crack and hands go numb does.

Some winter activities are a lot of fun, but we tend not to get enough snow to enjoy it for long. Warm temps, going to the beach, fishing, golfing, gardening, having a beer in the sun - that to me is enjoyment.

All a matter of preference, I suppose. Of course I'll be rooting for snowstorms come December. It's the only thing that makes winter weather bearable!

[nj2va]

104 with a 126 HI doesn't happen very often. But temps in the teens and 20s with biting wind that makes your face crack and hands go numb does.

Some winter activities are a lot of fun, but we tend not to get enough snow to enjoy it for long. Warm temps, going to the beach, fishing, golfing, gardening, having a beer in the sun - that to me is enjoyment.

All a matter of preference, I suppose. Of course I'll be rooting for snowstorms come December. It's the only thing that makes winter weather bearable!

+1 I prefer summer over winter anyday. But I do love tracking snowstorms and a blizzard as much as the next guy. But nothing beats BBQs outside, not having to bundle up with 5 layers when walking the dog, beaches, beers in the backyard at night, etc.

Anywho, looking forward to reading more 'theories' and predictions for this winter.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

104 with a 126 HI doesn't happen very often. But temps in the teens and 20s with biting wind that makes your face crack and hands go numb does.

Some winter activities are a lot of fun, but we tend not to get enough snow to enjoy it for long. Warm temps, going to the beach, fishing, golfing, gardening, having a beer in the sun - that to me is enjoyment.

All a matter of preference, I suppose. Of course I'll be rooting for snowstorms come December. It's the only thing that makes winter weather bearable!

Maybe I'm odd, but I prefer walking around in colder weather than in heat. I'll take our usual winter 30's/40's here over summer 90's any day. I like spring and fall temperatures too but summer is too hot here (for me) to do much outside.

[EastCoast NPZ]

Maybe I'm odd, but I prefer walking around in colder weather than in heat. I'll take our usual winter 30's/40's here over summer 90's any day. I like spring and fall temperatures too but summer is too hot here (for me) to do much outside.

+1

[mattie g]

I had a dream last night that we got a couple inches of snow while Philly->north got smashed by a Miller B.

No joke.

[mitchnick]

I had a dream last night that we got a couple inches of snow while Philly->north got smashed by a Miller B.

No joke.

that wasn't a dream, just a memory of last winter

[EastCoast NPZ]

that wasn't a dream, just a memory of last winter

would've gladly taken even a couple inches of snow; it would've been a marked improvement over the multiple dustings we received.

[ThePhotoGuy]

Just For Fun:

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/meteomadness/story/53551/snow-forecast-for-the-winter-of-20112012.asp

[North Balti Zen]

Fringed again!

[Ellinwood]

Just For Fun:

http://www.accuweath...of-20112012.asp

#airhorn

[SoCoWx]

I honestly think his "lack of greenland blocking/lack of cold" idea is going to fail miserably just based on where the teleconnections seems to be going. And how convenient that State College is in the bullseye, eh?

[marked8]

I found these on another site, a snow weenies dream:

http://tahoeweatherdiscussion.com/pics?album=3&gallery=9

[BethesdaWX]

I honestly think his "lack of greenland blocking/lack of cold" idea is going to fail miserably just based on where the teleconnections seems to be going. And how convenient that State College is in the bullseye, eh?

Good reasoning..........

Remember what caused the heavy west-leaning block in 2010-2011 was at least seemingly the weak solar discharge aspect, something we don't have this year. I also have no clue what "teleconnectors" you speak of..,the NAO is a teleconnector itself. So please elaborate?

[SoCoWx]

Good reasoning..........

Remember what caused the heavy west-leaning block in 2010-2011 was at least seemingly the weak solar discharge aspect, something we don't have this year. I also have no clue what "teleconnectors" you speak of..,the NAO is a teleconnector itself. So please elaborate?

Well on the Atlantic side there is the -NAO/-AO. On a larger scale there is -QBO which reinforces the chance of a greenland block. We're also in a state of relatively low solar output, continuing the minimum we've been in. A few CME's does not an active sun make. One thing that will have to be watched is where the aleutian ridge sets up.