Looking ahead to Winter 2011-2012?

[Ellinwood]

4 out of 5 winters suck. The rest are 2010/2003/1996 types.

Wrong. Every winter sucks because it's winter

[Fozz]

Question for you NoVa, MD, WV panhandle veterans. Is there a year when you remember frequent snows and consistent cold? Two winters ago, we had more than enough snow, but if I had had my preferences, that snow would have been divided into many smaller events as opposed to the big bombs. Being someone who grew up on the west slopes of the mountains where cloudy, grey days with snow flurries and snow showers are common. I like falling snow much more than snow on the ground. Any years here with frequent, even if smaller, snows?

2007. Even though it had below average snowfall.

[Fozz]

Wrong. Every winter sucks because it's winter

Out of curiosity, how were you able to move to Maryland right on February 6 last year?

[Ellinwood]

Out of curiosity, how were you able to move to Maryland right on February 6 last year?

Because we (my parents and I) started on the 5th. Got to Fredericksburg, VA where we decided to stop since we were doing 30mph on I-95 and it was getting dark. They had about 8-10" when we got there.

I don't think swinging like a pendulum with every model run is productive or makes for good discussion....

Good man.

[ORH_wxman]

2007. Even though it had below average snowfall.

'07 was a furnace for 2 months before the winter flipped. I would hardly say that winter had consistent cold/snow.

[BethesdaWX]

i was vindicated.....I prefer realism...I don't think swinging like a pendulum with every model run is productive or makes for good discussion....when the overall longwave pattern doesn't support big snow here it doesn't snow....yet that doesn't stop the masses from ignoring climo and hugging the one 6z model run at 180 hrs out that shows a SECS.....That is why I didn't participate here last winter and I probably won't this winter....

How about MAR1 2009?... strong +NAO, and still 4-6" in the northern LWX CWA, 12+" in southern LWX CWA. Not saying I don't agree with you in the general sense, but would you agree there is a timeframe in the 4 day range were homing in on an event is somewhat reasonable? Especially in terrible winters such as 08/09.

[PhineasC]

Zwyts needs to move north. Last winter he has complained nonstop about the lack of snow, and always with extreme pessimism. So he is disgruntled.

You need to move some place without Internet access.

[Nikolai]

I need to look at everything in detail still, but my forecast will be out soon. I've done generally (and surprisingly) awesome the past few years as well.

I'm kind of thinking cold/average snow for the DC area, just need to go more in-depth. One thing that I'm thinking--once more--as has been typical the past decade + is a relatively snowy/cold December.

The biggest question is whether we stay neutral - or progress into Weak Nina territory. I'm fairly sure that my move to NYC will pay off big-time once again, though.

(if not, I will come back for the storms, as I will always do if one city is getting 6" or more than the other)

[SoCoWx]

Ruggie has posted his preliminary thoughts about WInter 11/12:

http://www.ruggieweather.blogspot.com/

[not-prime]

keep us posted.

[ravensrule]

i was vindicated.....I prefer realism...I don't think swinging like a pendulum with every model run is productive or makes for good discussion....when the overall longwave pattern doesn't support big snow here it doesn't snow....yet that doesn't stop the masses from ignoring climo and hugging the one 6z model run at 180 hrs out that shows a SECS.....That is why I didn't participate here last winter and I probably won't this winter....

Well that will be a great loss for all of us here, we will sorely miss your great insight and charming friendly personality .

[nw baltimore wx]

Well that will be a great loss for all of us here, we will sorely miss your great insight and charming friendly personality .

All sarcasm aside, I hope Zwyts does post here this winter. Dadkind / Weather53 too.

[Fozz]

'07 was a furnace for 2 months before the winter flipped. I would hardly say that winter had consistent cold/snow.

Yes, but after Jan 15, the cold was surprisingly very persistent for 2 months, so at least the second half had persistent cold and occasional nickle and dime snowfall. February 2007 was colder than Feb 2003. I enjoyed it, partly because it was the winter when I learned how to ski. It featured the most crippling mid-Atlantic winter storm between PDII and Snowmageddon.

[mdsnowlover]

Hmm this summer reminds me, strongly, of the summer of 1965, when the summer was very hot , we had multiple days of over 100 degrees, very dry, and you all remember what happened in jan 31 1966, the blizzard that dropped 26 in of snow. So I dont rule out winter yet, hardly, it might be a good one. In my memory, hot summers usually result in cold snowy winters as mother nature usually evens out the weather during the year.. This is totally unscientific, but I would be dollars aganinst donoughts,that we have a decent winter.!!!Another memeory, several years ago , we had a very hot suumer and the following winter was very good. I,m sorry to have missed the conference, my mother is dying of cancer, so I couldn't go, but I would have asked Paul Kocin a couple of question regarding this phonomena!!

[DMADKAT]

Hmm this summer reminds me, strongly, of the summer of 1965, when the summer was very hot , we had multiple days of over 100 degrees, very dry, and you all remember what happened in jan 31 1966, the blizzard that dropped 26 in of snow. So I dont rule out winter yet, hardly, it might be a good one. In my memory, hot summers usually result in cold snowy winters as mother nature usually evens out the weather during the year.. This is totally unscientific, but I would be dollars aganinst donoughts,that we have a decent winter.!!!Another memeory, several years ago , we had a very hot suumer and the following winter was very good. I,m sorry to have missed the conference, my mother is dying of cancer, so I couldn't go, but I would have asked Paul Kocin a couple of question regarding this phonomena!!

I agree with you 100 percent . I've worked outside as a master plumber on new constuction for the last 40 years and I will tell all you guys with the science backgrounds that I have seen a lot of weather first hand. I know hot weather patterns are caused by blocking weather ridges and cold weather the same way . When the weather don't move for long periods of time ,it gets more extreme. Hot summers and cold winters go hand in hand. The low sun is the reason for the slow moving weather. Its coming , don't worry. Another record breaking cold winter for most of us. THIS AIN'T NONE OF THAT SO CALLED WISH CASTING YOU GUYS TALK ABOUT. This is a long time experiencing the weather outside everyday, all day, for forty years.

= and =

[Fozz]

Hmm this summer reminds me, strongly, of the summer of 1965, when the summer was very hot , we had multiple days of over 100 degrees, very dry, and you all remember what happened in jan 31 1966, the blizzard that dropped 26 in of snow. So I dont rule out winter yet, hardly, it might be a good one. In my memory, hot summers usually result in cold snowy winters as mother nature usually evens out the weather during the year.. This is totally unscientific, but I would be dollars aganinst donoughts,that we have a decent winter.!!!Another memeory, several years ago , we had a very hot suumer and the following winter was very good. I,m sorry to have missed the conference, my mother is dying of cancer, so I couldn't go, but I would have asked Paul Kocin a couple of question regarding this phonomena!!

Back in summer 2002, when it was 90+ degrees almost every day, I predicted a cold and snowy winter based on the fact that summer 1995 was very hot as well. Of course, now I know that there isn't any correlation, but back then I was 12.

[Joe Vanni]

The only thing is, 1965 and 2002 summers were already El'Nino or at least strongly heading toward it. I would love to get a snowy winter, but I don't want to get my hopes up just because it's hot. If ENSO isn't good come winter then hopefully the NAO/AO can help us out.

[mitchnick]

Back in summer 2002, when it was 90+ degrees almost every day, I predicted a cold and snowy winter based on the fact that summer 1995 was very hot as well. Of course, now I know that there isn't any correlation, but back then I was 12.

sometimes I think there is something to the hot summer/cold winter idea then I doubt it

summer of 07 was miserably hot and the winter that followed was miserably snow less

summer of 02 was hot and the winter was cold and snowy

summer of 09 was cool and followed by, well, you know

I think hot summers preceding NINOs that turn wet the last 1/2 have a better chance to signal a cold, snowy winter, but don't ask me for the science or proof on that

[HM]

sometimes I think there is something to the hot summer/cold winter idea then I doubt it

summer of 07 was miserably hot and the winter that followed was miserably snow less

summer of 02 was hot and the winter was cold and snowy

summer of 09 was cool and followed by, well, you know

I think hot summers preceding NINOs that turn wet the last 1/2 have a better chance to signal a cold, snowy winter, but don't ask me for the science or proof on that

The hot summer correlation isn't legit. Basically, you can either have a hot or cold summer and then a hot or cold winter follows right? So it ends up being 50/50. I agree that more trends need to be considered, if this is the route you want to take to make a seasonal forecast.

[DMADKAT]

The hot summer correlation isn't legit. Basically, you can either have a hot or cold summer and then a hot or cold winter follows right? So it ends up being 50/50. I agree that more trends need to be considered, if this is the route you want to take to make a seasonal forecast.

Hot summers with still weather that is, is when its a better shot at a cold winter that will also have still weather. Low sun super minimum is what causes still weather. The 1970's was also a decade of both hot summers and cold winters from super blocking. (1918 hot summer and cold winter in Norfolk Va. just after low sun),(1936 hot and then cold during low sun, the ocean froze at Virginia beach as far as you could see that winter, also Niagra Falls froze solid ! wow) ,((1977 hot summer /cold winter low sun baby), (1988 hot summer ,snowy late winter in Norfolk),(1995 god that summer was hot and then Chesapeake bay froze following winter, oh yeah , low sun), (and 2010 hottest summer ever in Norfolk followed by coldest December and snowiest also, right after lowest sun since Dalton minimum. ) It works try it Ted the master plumber

WITH THIS SUN GOING ON , WATCH IT REALLY GET CRAZY FOR SOME TIME

[BethesdaWX]

Hot summers with still weather that is, is when its a better shot at a cold winter that will also have still weather. Low sun super minimum is what causes still weather. The 1970's was also a decade of both hot summers and cold winters from super blocking. (1918 hot summer and cold winter in Norfolk Va. just after low sun),(1936 hot and then cold during low sun, the ocean froze at Virginia beach as far as you could see that winter, also Niagra Falls froze solid ! wow) ,((1977 hot summer /cold winter low sun baby), (1988 hot summer ,snowy late winter in Norfolk),(1995 god that summer was hot and then Chesapeake bay froze following winter, oh yeah , low sun), (and 2010 hottest summer ever in Norfolk followed by coldest December and snowiest also, right after lowest sun since Dalton minimum. ) It works try it Ted the master plumber

WITH THIS SUN GOING ON , WATCH IT REALLY GET CRAZY FOR SOME TIME

This thead = Major lolz.

If thats your method, go for it I guess. I'd suggest when grouping "hot" summers, perhaps check the causative mechanisms behind the synoptical patterns present, not that its just "hot"...its not just the sun. Much may come down to analogue packages selected based on appropriate Ocean-Atmospheric relationships, and I'd suggest starting in the stratosphere, at the height of the tropopause, before picking and choosing. ENSO/PDO/AMO are not enough in my view, evidenced in the wide spread of pattern variability within Weak ENSO phases, and the divergence seems to relate somewhat to the QBO phase, and somewhat to the Solar Magnetic Flux.

As for the Solar theory, as known, can be traced within the Polar Vortex, Suppression, as what we call the "NAO", (Arctic Oscillations AO/NAO not known whether ti be one teleconnector or two seperate identities). In the case of the negative arctic oscillation(s), the Jet stream is indeed suppressed southward, slowing in the process. So yes the pattern would not be all that progressive. But whether the pattern is "still" or not,I don't think, really is relevant on its own.

This also relates to the global climate if taking into account the AAO in the SH, & AO in the NH, Jets supressed to the south increase tropical cloud cover, (In the low solar periods), Reflecting ISR to lower the energy budget over a multi decadal scale, and knowing the direct energy imput (High sun angle) in the tropical regions, hotter waters, just more energy present, even a 1% change in LLGCC can equate to 1W/m^2 change in RF into the oceans which cover 90% of the area from 20N to 20S. This reasoning gives a boost to the research on multi decadal/century changes in overall solar activity stemming from the solar wind. And this too, ENSO wise, is important, and yet cannot be modeled, since no mechanism is present. But if we can figure out the mechanisms within the upper atmosphere, we may be able to model ENSO more accurately farther out in time, although then the Chaos theory comes into play.

Just to note when we're talking 3, 4, maybe 5W/m^2 RF change...the stakes are huge for everyone. If we were to lose even a relatively small portion of our energy budget, the response in the WX patterns may not be the same, in any regard, because wavelengths are determined by many factors.

[HM]

Hot summers with still weather that is, is when its a better shot at a cold winter that will also have still weather. Low sun super minimum is what causes still weather. The 1970's was also a decade of both hot summers and cold winters from super blocking. (1918 hot summer and cold winter in Norfolk Va. just after low sun),(1936 hot and then cold during low sun, the ocean froze at Virginia beach as far as you could see that winter, also Niagra Falls froze solid ! wow) ,((1977 hot summer /cold winter low sun baby), (1988 hot summer ,snowy late winter in Norfolk),(1995 god that summer was hot and then Chesapeake bay froze following winter, oh yeah , low sun), (and 2010 hottest summer ever in Norfolk followed by coldest December and snowiest also, right after lowest sun since Dalton minimum. ) It works try it Ted the master plumber

WITH THIS SUN GOING ON , WATCH IT REALLY GET CRAZY FOR SOME TIME

What an amazingly ridiculous post and anecdote! Thanks for sharing!

[mattie g]

Hot summers with still weather that is, is when its a better shot at a cold winter that will also have still weather. Low sun super minimum is what causes still weather. The 1970's was also a decade of both hot summers and cold winters from super blocking. (1918 hot summer and cold winter in Norfolk Va. just after low sun),(1936 hot and then cold during low sun, the ocean froze at Virginia beach as far as you could see that winter, also Niagra Falls froze solid ! wow) ,((1977 hot summer /cold winter low sun baby), (1988 hot summer ,snowy late winter in Norfolk),(1995 god that summer was hot and then Chesapeake bay froze following winter, oh yeah , low sun), (and 2010 hottest summer ever in Norfolk followed by coldest December and snowiest also, right after lowest sun since Dalton minimum. ) It works try it Ted the master plumber

WITH THIS SUN GOING ON , WATCH IT REALLY GET CRAZY FOR SOME TIME

Jeb?

[DMADKAT]

This thead = Major lolz.

If thats your method, go for it I guess. I'd suggest when grouping "hot" summers, perhaps check the causative mechanisms behind the synoptical patterns present, not that its just "hot"...its not just the sun. Much may come down to analogue packages selected based on appropriate Ocean-Atmospheric relationships, and I'd suggest starting in the stratosphere, at the height of the tropopause, before picking and choosing. ENSO/PDO/AMO are not enough in my view, evidenced in the wide spread of pattern variability within Weak ENSO phases, and the divergence seems to relate somewhat to the QBO phase, and somewhat to the Solar Magnetic Flux.

As for the Solar theory, as known, can be traced within the Polar Vortex, Suppression, as what we call the "NAO", (Arctic Oscillations AO/NAO not known whether ti be one teleconnector or two seperate identities). In the case of the negative arctic oscillation(s), the Jet stream is indeed suppressed southward, slowing in the process. So yes the pattern would not be all that progressive. But whether the pattern is "still" or not,I don't think, really is relevant on its own.

This also relates to the global climate if taking into account the AAO in the SH, & AO in the NH, Jets supressed to the south increase tropical cloud cover, (In the low solar periods), Reflecting ISR to lower the energy budget over a multi decadal scale, and knowing the direct energy imput (High sun angle) in the tropical regions, hotter waters, just more energy present, even a 1% change in LLGCC can equate to 1W/m^2 change in RF into the oceans which cover 90% of the area from 20N to 20S. This reasoning gives a boost to the research on multi decadal/century changes in overall solar activity stemming from the solar wind. And this too, ENSO wise, is important, and yet cannot be modeled, since no mechanism is present. But if we can figure out the mechanisms within the upper atmosphere, we may be able to model ENSO more accurately farther out in time, although then the Chaos theory comes into play.

Just to note when we're talking 3, 4, maybe 5W/m^2 RF change...the stakes are huge for everyone. If we were to lose even a relatively small portion of our energy budget, the response in the WX patterns may not be the same, in any regard, because wavelengths are determined by many factors.

Yes , a lot has changed with all the science that can be learned now. All these things apply to the grand scheme of things but generally it makes sense that all these features are cause by a variety of forces.The super low sun is surely a new force to be understood. I took aviation weather in college in 1980 along with the Boca plumbing code. A lot has changed with the unreal technology of today . I'm a plumber , not a bonifide met, but am very interested in climate and weather. I have been interested since I was a kid playing the snow during those wacky 70's .

[SNO]

MA 2011-2012 Winter Outlook

Dec 2011 -1 6.2 inches snow/ice

Jan 2012 +1 5.3 inches snow/ice

Feb 2012 even 8.9 inches snow/ice

Totals Avg. Temps 20.4 inches of snow/ice (IAD)

[PrinceFrederickWx]

Yes, but after Jan 15, the cold was surprisingly very persistent for 2 months, so at least the second half had persistent cold and occasional nickle and dime snowfall. February 2007 was colder than Feb 2003. I enjoyed it, partly because it was the winter when I learned how to ski. It featured the most crippling mid-Atlantic winter storm between PDII and Snowmageddon.

I don't remember any snow at all in 2007 here. Are you talking about Feb 2006? That was the biggest snowstorm between 02/03 and 09/10.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

2/14/07...sleetfest....not a lot of snow, but it was crippling

Oh I forgot about that. I was only thinking about snow.

[mattie g]

2/14/07...sleetfest....not a lot of snow, but it was crippling

SuperCAD. That was a crazy storm.

[PhineasC]

Back in summer 2002, when it was 90+ degrees almost every day, I predicted a cold and snowy winter based on the fact that summer 1995 was very hot as well. Of course, now I know that there isn't any correlation, but back then I was 12.

And now you are 13 and very mature and learned.

[Yeoman]

The weather will do what it wants, regardless of ridiculous correlations generated from statistically insignificant data.