BethesdaWX Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 that sample size isn't very meaningful nor do the parameters have any statistical significance, but that doesn't mean we won't have a cold winter.....I think what we are seeing in the pattern now, continues into winter.....which is transience......usually a transient/progressive pattern is warm in the means for us in the winter.....we get arctic blasts and sometimes meaningful ones, but they are brief and not enough to offset the warm periods.....unless we get a surprise Nino and I think that is unlikely, we aren't going to have a good Pacific in a weak nina or neutral winter.....we could get a blocky winter and that will keep us cold in the means, but it will typically be a dry cold with a storm track to our west.....so it doesn't excite me that much.....still lots to decipher over the next 4-5 months I'm pretty sure this past winter flies right the face of this analysis...not that you're incorrect or anything, but are you looking at all the variables? Or maybe you are weighting them cautiously? We had the +IO, +QBO, and a Mod-Strong La Nina, and the pattern did not reflect such a pattern in the 2010-11 winter, I can't ever recall seeing te massive -NAO block in DEC like we had last yr with teleconnectors in the phases they were in. The "Snow Hole" was not Coincidence, it wasn't bad luck, the overall synoptics just didn't favor the proper setup locally for heavy snow (consistantly). But if we are to assume we remain Neutral in ENSO, you could say, 1) Likely a Stronger STJ, 2) -QBO may favor a deeper -NAO/-AO coupled with a low Geomagnetic Flux, 3) The IOD is likely in a colder mode (based of current SSTs admittedly), and a Cooler -AMO (potentially), may increase our chances at a more prolonged cold pattern rather than a warmer one with colder intervals. Don't know, but just seems somewhat rational to think so. Just thinking into this a bit to heavily, but still worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 I'm pretty sure this past winter flies right the face of this analysis...not that you're incorrect or anything, but are you looking at all the variables? Or maybe you are weighting them cautiously? We had the +IO, +QBO, and a Mod-Strong La Nina, and the pattern did not reflect such a pattern in the 2010-11 winter, I can't ever recall seeing te massive -NAO block in DEC like we had last yr with teleconnectors in the phases they were in. The "Snow Hole" was not Coincidence, it wasn't bad luck, the overall synoptics just didn't favor the proper setup locally for heavy snow (consistantly). But if we are to assume we remain Neutral in ENSO, you could say, 1) Likely a Stronger STJ, 2) -QBO may favor a deeper -NAO/-AO coupled with a low Geomagnetic Flux, 3) The IOD is likely in a colder mode (based of current SSTs admittedly), and a Cooler -AMO (potentially), may increase our chances at a more prolonged cold pattern rather than a warmer one with colder intervals. Don't know, but just seems somewhat rational to think so. Just thinking into this a bit to heavily, but still worth it. Neutrals after Ninas tend to have a La Nina "hangover" in the pattern. The best neutrals or weak Ninas for the M.A. seem to come after Ninos ala '66-'67, '78-'79, '95-'96, etc. That said, our sample size is small so anything can happen. But you usually want a leftover Nino hangover to have any kind of STJ action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Neutrals after Ninas tend to have a La Nina "hangover" in the pattern. The best neutrals or weak Ninas for the M.A. seem to come after Ninos ala '66-'67, '78-'79, '95-'96, etc. That said, our sample size is small so anything can happen. But you usually want a leftover Nino hangover to have any kind of STJ action. Oh. So you're saying that there may not be any notable increase in the STJ despite the brief warm Flux we have right now in the ENSO regions? I was thinking that there may be some effect, but I'm not exactly qualified to speak here. I was looking back at SST data and I don't recall seeing the ENSO regions rebound as quickly as they did this spring/summer from a strong Nina, if we are looking for a weak Nina next winter rather than Neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 maybe, latest numbers are still neutral...this could be just fluctuations 29JUN2011 22.9 0.4 26.1 0.1 27.4 0.1 28.6 0.0 those weekly numbers look wacky when comparing every SSTA map, except I'll buy 0 for NINO 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 those weekly numbers look wacky when comparing every SSTA map, except I'll buy 0 for NINO 4 ENSO region 3.4 has been holding near neutral for over a month... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 ENSO region 3.4 has been holding near neutral for over a month... Subsurface has been cooling for about a month too which makes the chances of an El Nino quite remote IMHO. Trade winds are forecasted to strengthen in the long range, so its probably done making its climb back to neutral...but these things can be fickle, so we'll see what it does in the next month. In order of likelihood, I'd probably put the winter scenarios like this: 1. Weak La Nina 2. Negative neutral 3. Positive neutral 4. Moderate La Nina 5. Weak El Nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Subsurface has been cooling for about a month too which makes the chances of an El Nino quite remote IMHO. Trade winds are forecasted to strengthen in the long range, so its probably done making its climb back to neutral...but these things can be fickle, so we'll see what it does in the next month. In order of likelihood, I'd probably put the winter scenarios like this: 1. Weak La Nina 2. Negative neutral 3. Positive neutral 4. Moderate La Nina 5. Weak El Nino not much of an argument here with that list, not that I like the "likely" consequences for winter down here if its right you should be ecstatic, however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 not much of an argument here with that list, not that I like the "likely" consequences for winter down here if its right you should be ecstatic, however Mitchnick, and any others, you have been in this area longer than I have, and I was wondering what the list looks like in order from best to worst setups heading into winter down here. Any thoughts or tips on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Mitchnick, and any others, you have been in this area longer than I have, and I was wondering what the list looks like in order from best to worst setups heading into winter down here. Any thoughts or tips on that I am guessing: Super-bad Ji-suicide bad Ji-takes-us-all-out and then suicide bad Extra-bad Uber-terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Mitchnick, and any others, you have been in this area longer than I have, and I was wondering what the list looks like in order from best to worst setups heading into winter down here. Any thoughts or tips on that Potent La Ninas tend to stink and so do neutrals after La Nina in that region. I don't know the exact stats, but I'm sure zwyts does and will chime in when he reads this. This is why you want to have an El Nino or at least a Nino hangover. There are some exceptions...a nice 2 week period in January 2000 sort of salvaged that winter to being OK despite a strong La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Mitchnick, and any others, you have been in this area longer than I have, and I was wondering what the list looks like in order from best to worst setups heading into winter down here. Any thoughts or tips on that I'm pretty sure heading into last winter (2010-11), things looked as bad as they could reasonably get. +QBO, Strong La Nina, +IO... For what we were up against, we did well (relatively). The complaining is just tradition. I assume 1998-99 looked pretty bleak as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Potent La Ninas tend to stink and so do neutrals after La Nina in that region. I don't know the exact stats, but I'm sure zwyts does and will chime in when he reads this. This is why you want to have an El Nino or at least a Nino hangover. There are some exceptions...a nice 2 week period in January 2000 sort of salvaged that winter to being OK despite a strong La Nina. That winter storm was awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 That winter storm was awesome 3 storms over 2 weeks with the 1/25/00 being the best, though folks out west toward IAD and beyond didn't do so hot I like the -QBO this year and the sleepy sun giving us a "chance" at some blocking other than that, the "odds favor" this winter will not be better than last year but 1 storm like 1/25/00 in an otherwise lousy winter can change the perception of the winter in retrospect, if I had received a foot or more from the PSUHoffman storm like many 20 miles or less to my N and NE did, I might have felt different about this past winter...that plus the fact BWI had over 1.5" qpf and measured around 7" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 I'm pretty sure heading into last winter (2010-11), things looked as bad as they could reasonably get. +QBO, Strong La Nina, +IO... For what we were up against, we did well (relatively). The complaining is just tradition. I assume 1998-99 looked pretty bleak as well. tradition? he!!, I thought that's why we're here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Potent La Ninas tend to stink and so do neutrals after La Nina in that region. I don't know the exact stats, but I'm sure zwyts does and will chime in when he reads this. This is why you want to have an El Nino or at least a Nino hangover. There are some exceptions...a nice 2 week period in January 2000 sort of salvaged that winter to being OK despite a strong La Nina. what he said Winterwxluvr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 3 storms over 2 weeks with the 1/25/00 being the best, though folks out west toward IAD and beyond didn't do so hot I like the -QBO this year and the sleepy sun giving us a "chance" at some blocking other than that, the "odds favor" this winter will not be better than last year but 1 storm like 1/25/00 in an otherwise lousy winter can change the perception of the winter in retrospect, if I had received a foot or more from the PSUHoffman storm like many 20 miles or less to my N and NE did, I might have felt different about this past winter...that plus the fact BWI had over 1.5" qpf and measured around 7" of snow one other thing the cold pool off of Nova Scotia is looking robust, maybe a hair east of where ideal would be, but almost exactly where the cold pool set up in early July 2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 tradition? he!!, I thought that's why we're here lol 1/25/00 is one of my all-time favorites. The north trend worked huge in our favor. Wind-driven powder. I had three-foot drifts. That's really why we're here. Give me one like that in '11-'12 and I'll be good for another year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 It's funny how everyone (myself included in this) always roots for an El Nino now because of 02/03 and 09/10. Back in the 90's I always thought El Nino sucked for this area- and it did! Every El Nino in the 90's sucked terribly. And the La Nina's brought us all the snow (95/96, 99/00). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Question for you NoVa, MD, WV panhandle veterans. Is there a year when you remember frequent snows and consistent cold? Two winters ago, we had more than enough snow, but if I had had my preferences, that snow would have been divided into many smaller events as opposed to the big bombs. Being someone who grew up on the west slopes of the mountains where cloudy, grey days with snow flurries and snow showers are common. I like falling snow much more than snow on the ground. Any years here with frequent, even if smaller, snows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Question for you NoVa, MD, WV panhandle veterans. Is there a year when you remember frequent snows and consistent cold? Two winters ago, we had more than enough snow, but if I had had my preferences, that snow would have been divided into many smaller events as opposed to the big bombs. Being someone who grew up on the west slopes of the mountains where cloudy, grey days with snow flurries and snow showers are common. I like falling snow much more than snow on the ground. Any years here with frequent, even if smaller, snows? 1981-82 was like that. My last year in western Md after growing up in Cumberland. For our area (MRB data): -a 2" snowfall on Thanksgiving, then winter set in with 5" on 12/14-15, another inch 12/21 to freshen the snowcover. 2 more inches on NYE. -a cold snap with some below zero readings to start January, then 5" from the 1/13 storm, another inch 1/16, then a -13F reading 1/17, one of 3 nights in a row 0 or below. -a "mild-up" after the cold snap with 9.5" in 5 days, 1/21-1/26. snow cover stretched from 1/13-2/9, 28 days -3 more inches to replace the snowpack on 2/13-14. same week, 2/17-19, snow accumulations were 7.0", 1.4", 2.4" for those three days. -3/7 chipped in 3 more inches. and after some more typical March weather, MRB picked up 3 more inches 4/9 ! A 47" winter, but just the kind you described. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 It's funny how everyone (myself included in this) always roots for an El Nino now because of 02/03 and 09/10. Back in the 90's I always thought El Nino sucked for this area- and it did! Every El Nino in the 90's sucked terribly. And the La Nina's brought us all the snow (95/96, 99/00). El Ninos with big +NAOs are a disaster. That's what 1991-1992 and 1994-1995 were. 1997-1998 had just a slightly positive NAO but a terrible PAC pattern as the vortex got so enormous, it basically engulfed the entire GOA and firehosed the CONUS with mild PAC air masses. You normally want it further W toward S of the Aleutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Here are some analogue maps that the user Snowstorm over at AccuWx forums posted. These are Winters with a -NAO and winters with a -QBO. Both of which are very real possibilities this go around. Weak-moderate La Nina Winters WITH a solidly -QBO resulted in this: Winter's with -NAO: Interesting to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Here are some analogue maps that the user Snowstorm over at AccuWx forums posted. These are Winters with a -NAO and winters with a -QBO. Both of which are very real possibilities this go around. Weak-moderate La Nina Winters WITH a solidly -QBO resulted in this: lol AccuWx forum copypasta. Why weak-moderate La Nina? I hope it's closer to the "weak" side of it, as weak Nina/neutral is probably a better estimate of this winter's ENSO state. Did he/she mention WHY they think this winter will be -QBO or -NAO dominated? Do you have any thoughts/discussion of your own? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 lol AccuWx forum copypasta. Why weak-moderate La Nina? I hope it's closer to the "weak" side of it, as weak Nina/neutral is probably a better estimate of this winter's ENSO state. Did he/she mention WHY they think this winter will be -QBO or -NAO dominated? Do you have any thoughts/discussion of your own? Well I think Weak La Nina is the best bet. And I acknowledge the whole "cycle of back to back -NAO Winters" theory. And I think that cycle is going to continue. Alsom from what I've read, the QBO is descending back to the negative side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Well I think Weak La Nina is the best bet. And I acknowledge the whole "cycle of back to back -NAO Winters" theory. And I think that cycle is going to continue. Alsom from what I've read, the QBO is descending back to the negative side. Thank you for the reasoning Indeed, it does look like we're heading back into a -QBO regime come fall/winter: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index As far as the back-to-back -NAO winter theory... I'm not largely sold on that, but it is a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Unless the solar wind flux were to increase, I think it'd be hard to see a +NAO, especially with a -QBO present. Last winter we had the +IO, +QBO, Borderline Strong La Nina, and a big time -NAO dominated until Mid January...that has never happened before...it just doesn't happen. The solar wind flux didn't drop until 2009, and when it did, it dropped to record low levels...the AO/NAO bottomed in record territory as well in the same timeframe. I do not think it is any coincidence. The ECMWF monthlies, JMA Long Range, virtually everything model & analog wise, was indicating the blowtorch last winter, and it should have been a blowtorch winter for much of the lower 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Last winter we had the +IO, +QBO, Borderline Strong La Nina, and a big time -NAO dominated until Mid January...that has never happened before...it just doesn't happen. Well... it did. The ECMWF monthlies, JMA Long Range, virtually everything model & analog wise, was indicating the blowtorch last winter, and it should have been a blowtorch winter for much of the lower 48. Well... it wasn't. Weather can do whatever the hell it wants - we're just along for the ride Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Unless the solar wind flux were to increase, I think it'd be hard to see a +NAO, especially with a -QBO present. Last winter we had the +IO, +QBO, Borderline Strong La Nina, and a big time -NAO dominated until Mid January...that has never happened before...it just doesn't happen. The solar wind flux didn't drop until 2009, and when it did, it dropped to record low levels...the AO/NAO bottomed in record territory as well in the same timeframe. I do not think it is any coincidence. The ECMWF monthlies, JMA Long Range, virtually everything model & analog wise, was indicating the blowtorch last winter, and it should have been a blowtorch winter for much of the lower 48. The ENSO/QBO relationship certainly occurred with the Arctic Oscillation mid-winter: 2011: -1.683 +1.575 +1.424 +2.275 The stratospheric connection was also good, with no MMW's and a strong FW. The indicators definitely came through but it was the interpretation by humans that was wrong (well for some anyway). That low solar dip post the higher autumn activity was absolutely amazing timing for the start of 2010-11. It was ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 how much of a disaster is this looking to be. Zwyts on facebook told me that this summer will be considered the ice age in comparison to how warm winter is going to be Zwyts needs to move north. Last winter he has complained nonstop about the lack of snow, and always with extreme pessimism. So he is disgruntled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Every winter sucks. 4 out of 5 winters suck. The rest are 2010/2003/1996 types. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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