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Looking ahead to Winter 2011-2012?

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

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BethesdaWX

BethesdaWX

Posted
Posted

Both 18z GFS ensembles and Euro ensembles are a torch in the long range for all of us...OP GFS is likely wrong. In fact, its actually colder than every single GEFS member.

I agree, posted it more out of humor than anything else as I tried to hint at in my comment :P The page I use for the Euro ensemble plots isn't working for me but the GEFS definitely looked ugly when I last checked it.

I do find the continuing insistance of the operational GFS to build a healthy -NAO in the LR interesting though, the 00z GFS has one of the deepest -NAOs I've ever seen it show. Not saying I'm taking it seriously but I still like to watch that stuff.

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easternsnowman

easternsnowman

Posted
Posted

...wut

My point is that more than 5 days out I'm not sold on any model saying it's going to be a "torch", I don't think the enesmbles are that reliable. The 18z gfs is the most unreliable anf the euro ensembles do have a warm bias. All that being said I do believe it warms up, but not like they are saying.

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Ellinwood

Ellinwood

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My point is that more than 5 days out I'm not sold on any model saying it's going to be a "torch", I don't think the enesmbles are that reliable. The 18z gfs is the most unreliable anf the euro ensembles do have a warm bias. All that being said I do believe it warms up, but not like they are saying.

1) Ensembles are the BEST way to utilize model forecasts in the medium/long range... much more so than the operational models, so you're completely backward in that regard.

2) You've got a solid -PNA, +AO and +NAO and slightly +EPO heading into early next week, which all support a warmer East Coast. The only cool risk comes from the MJO, which is generally forecast to move into phase 5 next week (phase 5 in November reveals a cool east/warm west pattern). However, the MJO signal, while present, isn't that strong compared to some of the other teleconnections in the medium/long range.

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Kevin Druff

Kevin Druff

Posted
Posted

My point is that more than 5 days out I'm not sold on any model saying it's going to be a "torch", I don't think the enesmbles are that reliable. The 18z gfs is the most unreliable anf the euro ensembles do have a warm bias. All that being said I do believe it warms up, but not like they are saying.

That makes almost zero sense, even correcting the typos. Based on the above, I'm going to assume you don't understand what ensembles are and how to use them.

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lbchandler

lbchandler

Posted
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1) Ensembles are the BEST way to utilize model forecasts in the medium/long range... much more so than the operational models, so you're completely backward in that regard.

2) You've got a solid -PNA, +AO and +NAO and slightly +EPO heading into early next week, which all support a warmer East Coast. The only cool risk comes from the MJO, which is generally forecast to move into phase 5 next week (phase 5 in November reveals a cool east/warm west pattern). However, the MJO signal, while present, isn't that strong compared to some of the other teleconnections in the medium/long range.

I realize that many of you do not agree with our friend Joe Bastardi on much of anything but I will just point out that since August he has been forecasting a normal or above normal first three weeks of November as far as temperatures are concerned and then a cold and snowy pattern is supposed to set in right around Thanksgiving and last through month od December which he says will be worst part of the winter season. I have no idea what you all think of his partner Joe D but basically he says same thing.

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted

1) Ensembles are the BEST way to utilize model forecasts in the medium/long range... much more so than the operational models, so you're completely backward in that regard.

2) You've got a solid -PNA, +AO and +NAO and slightly +EPO heading into early next week, which all support a warmer East Coast. The only cool risk comes from the MJO, which is generally forecast to move into phase 5 next week (phase 5 in November reveals a cool east/warm west pattern). However, the MJO signal, while present, isn't that strong compared to some of the other teleconnections in the medium/long range.

That makes almost zero sense, even correcting the typos. Based on the above, I'm going to assume you don't understand what ensembles are and how to use them.

I understand what you guys are trying to say to this poster, but I think he's trying to say something that is generally true as well. I'm just trying to be positive with his post.

I'm sure that the people with the knowledge can use and interpret the ensembles in ways that most of us have no clue about. However, I do feel that to try and forecast weather two weeks ahead is an exercise in futility, ensembles or not. If there's any kind of data that can show me that I'm wrong, I'd love to see that. The poster did say 5 days, though. With respect to that, I'd say he's off in his comments. So, I guess I'm saying that I agree with you guys that a reasonable forecast for the first 5 days can be made and will generally be fairly accurate wrt the actual weather, that ensembles can give us a reasonable idea for the pattern and warm vs. cold for the 6-10 day period, and perhaps up to 12 days, but that after that time frame, it's a whole lot more up in the air and any forecast made for that time frame is not something to get excited about or depressed about.

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easternsnowman

easternsnowman

Posted
Posted

I realize that many of you do not agree with our friend Joe Bastardi on much of anything but I will just point out that since August he has been forecasting a normal or above normal first three weeks of November as far as temperatures are concerned and then a cold and snowy pattern is supposed to set in right around Thanksgiving and last through month od December which he says will be worst part of the winter season. I have no idea what you all think of his partner Joe D but basically he says same thing.

I do agree with what he is saying, I just think we will not be as warm the first 3 weeks as some say.

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Kevin Druff

Kevin Druff

Posted
Posted

What do the "typos" have to with it?

Absolutely nothing. But, if you're going to post things with no basis in fact, please do so with appropriate punctuation and spelling. That way I'm not distracted by squiggly red lines indicating such when I reply.

I understand what you guys are trying to say to this poster, but I think he's trying to say something that is generally true as well. I'm just trying to be positive with his post.

I'm sure that the people with the knowledge can use and interpret the ensembles in ways that most of us have no clue about. However, I do feel that to try and forecast weather two weeks ahead is an exercise in futility, ensembles or not. If there's any kind of data that can show me that I'm wrong, I'd love to see that. The poster did say 5 days, though. With respect to that, I'd say he's off in his comments. So, I guess I'm saying that I agree with you guys that a reasonable forecast for the first 5 days can be made and will generally be fairly accurate wrt the actual weather, that ensembles can give us a reasonable idea for the pattern and warm vs. cold for the 6-10 day period, and perhaps up to 12 days, but that after that time frame, it's a whole lot more up in the air and any forecast made for that time frame is not something to get excited about or depressed about.

I'm no expert, but, I am pretty good at reading and learning. Folks who know more than I almost always look to the ensembles when talking D+8. Yes, they'll look at and mention the OP run, but, more often than not, it's in comparison to the ensembles.

The ensembles aren't used to make a forecast two weeks ahead. They're used to talk potential and patterns. If you see a handful of members with similar solutions (e.g. cold east/warm west), your confidence increases that such a pattern will evolve. In the long range, GFS and Euro ensembles are tools for increasing confidence of broad-stroke patterns, IMO.

To my knowledge the following statements the poster made have NO basis in fact: ensembles are "not reliable;" the 18z GFS is the "most unreliable;" Euro ensembles have a "warm bias."

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

I'm no expert, but, I am pretty good at reading and learning. Folks who know more than I almost always look to the ensembles when talking D+8. Yes, they'll look at and mention the OP run, but, more often than not, it's in comparison to the ensembles.

The ensembles aren't used to make a forecast two weeks ahead. They're used to talk potential and patterns. If you see a handful of members with similar solutions (e.g. cold east/warm west), your confidence increases that such a pattern will evolve. In the long range, GFS and Euro ensembles are tools for increasing confidence of broad-stroke patterns, IMO.

To my knowledge the following statements the poster made have NO basis in fact: ensembles are "not reliable;" the 18z GFS is the "most unreliable;" Euro ensembles have a "warm bias."

Yes...you'd never try and forecast something like a snowstorm 2 weeks out on the ensembles, but the larger scale patterns can be diagnosed with at least some skill in that time frame.

Using other factors too like the MJO forecasts and such can help raise or lower confidence in a pattern the ensembles show.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

When was the last time the NAO was negative ? Early August ?

It would be nice to see some hint of periods of ridging over Greenland soon. Without that this winter, we are really relying on a lousy Pacific and I don't see much hope with that.

Yes, the NAO has been pretty much neutral since mid august. The first half of august featured the last period of -nao. GFS keeps kicking around a neg nao in the long range.

The loop looks really nice past 240 (I know...I know.....total fantasy land):

http://raleighwx.ame...yNAGFSLoop.html

We really shouldn't care too much in Nov though. As long as the se ridge doesn't become a long time resident we're good to go. I think we all kinda expect the flip to ec cold and trough sometime towards the end of the month or early dec.

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easternsnowman

easternsnowman

Posted
Posted

Ensembles will show a trend but as one of the mets said it takes other factors besides them to make a forecast. My point is that if they are indicating a + 15 or so departure more than a week out then there has to be more carefull analysis before we say there will be a torch.

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Ellinwood

Ellinwood

Posted
Posted

Ensembles will show a trend but as one of the mets said it takes other factors besides them to make a forecast. My point is that if they are indicating a + 15 or so departure more than a week out then there has to be more carefull analysis before we say there will be a torch.

orly

It is, however, still a better guess than what the operationals show.

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