WVclimo Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 When was the last time the NAO was negative ? Early August ? It would be nice to see some hint of periods of ridging over Greenland soon. Without that this winter, we are really relying on a lousy Pacific and I don't see much hope with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 When was the last time the NAO was negative ? Early August ? It would be nice to see some hint of periods of ridging over Greenland soon. Without that this winter, we are really relying on a lousy Pacific and I don't see much hope with that. Yes, the NAO has been pretty much neutral since mid august. The first half of august featured the last period of -nao. GFS keeps kicking around a neg nao in the long range. The loop looks really nice past 240 (I know...I know.....total fantasy land): http://raleighwx.ame...yNAGFSLoop.html We really shouldn't care too much in Nov though. As long as the se ridge doesn't become a long time resident we're good to go. I think we all kinda expect the flip to ec cold and trough sometime towards the end of the month or early dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 December 5 will bring 6 inches of snow in DC. Bank on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 The start of a -NAO that will last through most of the Winter. One warm up, then Winter! http://www.meteo.psu...nsloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 The start of a -NAO that will last through most of the Winter. One warm up, then Winter! http://www.meteo.psu...nsloopmref.html Cold and relatively dry like last winter for BWI or cold and ? MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 The start of a -NAO that will last through most of the Winter. One warm up, then Winter! http://www.meteo.psu...nsloopmref.html A west based -NAO to boot. Wouldn't mind seeing that feature dominate through the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 The start of a -NAO that will last through most of the Winter. One warm up, then Winter! http://www.meteo.psu...nsloopmref.html you ought to post here more often , sexy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 Ensembles will show a trend but as one of the mets said it takes other factors besides them to make a forecast. My point is that if they are indicating a + 15 or so departure more than a week out then there has to be more carefull analysis before we say there will be a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 Ensembles will show a trend but as one of the mets said it takes other factors besides them to make a forecast. My point is that if they are indicating a + 15 or so departure more than a week out then there has to be more carefull analysis before we say there will be a torch. orly It is, however, still a better guess than what the operationals show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 I found it remember that DGEX map that showed 3-4' of snow around DCA/BWI the first days of 2/10? I wanna' cry http://www.easternus...ost__p__4524354 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 I found it remember that DGEX map that showed 3-3' of snow around DCA/BWI the first days of 2/10? I wanna' cry http://www.easternus...ost__p__4524354 when did eastern come back online? awesome that the old info wasn't lost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Focusing strictly in the DJF period for the DC-Baltimore area, I think this year that most of the snow will come in 1 big storm. So while I think there will be some "fluke" snow in November and December is kinda chilly, the key times to watch will be near or just after New Years and again from 1/20 through 2/10. Probably the rest of February will grow warm. There is strong indication that 1 storm may bring the season's total to a lot of the DC area and Baltimore may see 1 big snow with a few other events, too. Thought I would throw the DC crew a forecast because what the hell...we know it's for fun. March, as usual, will be another fail in this area. Just wanted to do a quick bump. Looks like the fluke snow came even earlier (October!!) than thought. December starts off with a very "nino" looking temperature profile with the warmest across the northern Plains. This was something I was afraid of and now it looks like it may actually happen. It would be something if the entire month looked like that! It seems like everything is happening faster than originally thought at the moment but I'm not sure on that yet. December will probably deliver a few weak events but the main show starts toward New Years. I still think those ideas are fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I dont think i can take another snowless winter. Last year we at least had stuff to track....this year?? Good call. Unfortunately, you cursed us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Gonna be fun to read the verifications for all the winter forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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