Looking ahead to Winter 2011-2012?

[Ellinwood]

Detailed video discussion on the "2011-2012 WinterOutlook" at spam.com (under "SeasonalForecasts" at right) with a breakdown of the major factors including -PDO,-NAO, LaNina (weak, east-based), low solar activity and high current NorthernHemisphere snow cover extent. Itincludes specific forecasts for DC to Boston (snowier and colder relative tonormal as one goes up the coast).

the tl;dw for those who don't want to skim through the 15:29 video...

Any verifications for this guy? Also, welcome phils1.

[aldie 22]

Saw my first wooly bear thingy or whatever the heck those fuzzy things are called...while mowing yesterday...fat and all black...also a few years ago when Dave moved down here from New Hampshire....all black fuzzy thingy....big winter!! This year new neighbors are from Chicago...all black fuzzy thingy?????? Ahhhh science

[mattie g]

Saw my first wooly bear thingy or whatever the heck those fuzzy things are called...while mowing yesterday...fat and all black...also a few years ago when Dave moved down here from New Hampshire....all black fuzzy thingy....big winter!! This year new neighbors are from Chicago...all black fuzzy thingy?????? Ahhhh science

I've seen a lot of them while doing yardwork the last few weeks. Almost all black, save a few stripes.

I'm riding the wooly bear train...

[Avdave]

Saw my first wooly bear thingy or whatever the heck those fuzzy things are called...while mowing yesterday...fat and all black...also a few years ago when Dave moved down here from New Hampshire....all black fuzzy thingy....big winter!! This year new neighbors are from Chicago...all black fuzzy thingy?????? Ahhhh science

I saw one yesterday as well cutting the lawn, it was a big one too. Hmmm???????

[FXW176]

Saw my first wooly bear thingy or whatever the heck those fuzzy things are called...while mowing yesterday...fat and all black...also a few years ago when Dave moved down here from New Hampshire....all black fuzzy thingy....big winter!! This year new neighbors are from Chicago...all black fuzzy thingy?????? Ahhhh science

I've seen a lot of them while doing yardwork the last few weeks. Almost all black, save a few stripes.

I'm riding the wooly bear train...

I saw one yesterday as well cutting the lawn, it was a big one too. Hmmm???????

I haven't seen one yet.

However, I predict it will be cold at some point this winter.

[Avdave]

I haven't seen one yet.

However, I predict it will be cold at some point this winter.

It all your hot air you produce, rain and 33 for you.

[BethesdaWX]

the last time I saw a full black fur worm thing really was in 2002 ( ) but haven't seen any since

[FXW176]

It all your hot air you produce, rain and 33 for you.

Hope you had fun shopping today. I just finished landscaping your backyard so it matches the front:

Gonna be a muddy mess if you are lucky enough to see any precip this winter...

[tnweathernut]

I saw one yesterday as well cutting the lawn, it was a big one too. Hmmm???????

Really? WOW...... I haven't seen one here in northeast Tennessee yet, but if yours are big enough to cut a lawn, that's just crazy crazy stuff. haha.

oh, and sorry to invade your regional thread, just couldn't help myself.

[mitchnick]

Really? WOW...... I haven't seen one here in northeast Tennessee yet, but if yours are big enough to cut a lawn, that's just crazy crazy stuff. haha.

oh, and sorry to invade your regional thread, just couldn't help myself.

My economics professor at U of MD back in the late 70's was from Johnson City, TN

Chester Peake was his name; he was living in MD back then, of course, and I don't know if he's still living

great guy, great parties at his house too (his wife had left him and took most of the furniture so most rooms in his house were for dancing, etc.)

[Avdave]

Hope you had fun shopping today. I just finished landscaping your backyard so it matches the front:

Gonna be a muddy mess if you are lucky enough to see any precip this winter...

:axe: you need shut up mister, before you find more pieces of siding all over your yard

Really? WOW...... I haven't seen one here in northeast Tennessee yet, but if yours are big enough to cut a lawn, that's just crazy crazy stuff. haha.

oh, and sorry to invade your regional thread, just couldn't help myself.

Well Played tnweathernut.

[Amped]

Here's my short but not so sweet winter forecast.

We have a second year nina (Or neutral following a nina) and a strong -PDO. That is not to good for mid Atlantic snow.

In a nutshell, I think this will be a lot like a Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue: All teasing, No pleasing.

[okie333]

Here's my short but not so sweet winter forecast.

We have a second year nina (Or neutral following a nina) and a strong -PDO. That is not to good for mid Atlantic snow.

In a nutshell, I think this will be a lot like a Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue: All teasing, No pleasing.

You do realize that before 2009-10, the record holder (1917-18) in DCA was a second-year Niña, right?

[BethesdaWX]

You do realize that before 2009-10, the record holder (1917-18) in DCA was a second-year Niña, right?

No it was 1898/99 not 1917/18, either way that was just a result of a deep -NAO during the dalton minimum despite it being a 2nd yr La Nina. 1917/18 was just very cold.

[okie333]

No it was 1898/99 not 1917/18, either way that was just a result of a deep -NAO during the dalton minimum despite it being a 2nd yr La Nina. 1917/18 was just very cold.

Oh sorry I meant 1898-99... I knew it was one of my top 2 analogs for this winter. That was not the Dalton Minimum -- Dalton was in the 1820s. There was a solar minimum similar to cycle 24 (this one) in the 1910s though, and the 1890s appear to have had a fairly low cycle as well.

[BethesdaWX]

Oh sorry I meant 1898-99... I knew it was one of my top 2 analogs for this winter. That was not the Dalton Minimum -- Dalton was in the 1820s. There was a solar minimum similar to cycle 24 (this one) in the 1910s though, and the 1890s appear to have had a fairly low cycle as well.

Pardon me if this response is incoherent I'm going on my second all nighter (Calculus ftl) and am exhasuted. Yes not officially the Dalton but I tend to include that period as part of the longer span of weaker solar activity relative to the moderm max that began in the late 1920s. I believe the Sporer Minimum was the beginning of the longer timespan of weaker sun activity (correct me if I'm wrong), followed immediately by the Maunder Minimum, a small spike in the 1770s before another period of weak solar activity from ~ 1800 through 1920 before the moderm maximum from then until 2006.

I've also been curious about the Solar-PDO connection as there seems to be something to it however the Sun driving the PDO seems farfetched. Only thing I think we know is a -PDO/La Nina represents net energy loss from earth, visa-versa with El Nino/+PDO, and it'd make sense with where the Sun positions equatorial clouds through shifts in the blocking pattern.

So 1898/99 being a La Nina and trying to compare to this season may not be as "out there" as I originally thought but still can't see anything close to that happening.

[Deck Pic]

Pardon me if this response is incoherent I'm going on my second all nighter (Calculus ftl) and am exhasuted. Yes not officially the Dalton but I tend to include that period as part of the longer span of weaker solar activity relative to the moderm max that began in the late 1920s. I believe the Sporer Minimum was the beginning of the longer timespan of weaker sun activity (correct me if I'm wrong), followed immediately by the Maunder Minimum, a small spike in the 1770s before another period of weak solar activity from ~ 1800 through 1920 before the moderm maximum from then until 2006.

I've also been curious about the Solar-PDO connection as there seems to be something to it however the Sun driving the PDO seems farfetched. Only thing I think we know is a -PDO/La Nina represents net energy loss from earth, visa-versa with El Nino/+PDO, and it'd make sense with where the Sun positions equatorial clouds through shifts in the blocking pattern.

So 1898/99 being a La Nina and trying to compare to this season may not be as "out there" as I originally thought but still can't see anything close to that happening.

It is pretty unlikely that 1898-99 was a La Nina of any substance or significance....It was much more like a neutral winter....I doubt ENSO was much of a factor.....

[Deck Pic]

Oh sorry I meant 1898-99... I knew it was one of my top 2 analogs for this winter. That was not the Dalton Minimum -- Dalton was in the 1820s. There was a solar minimum similar to cycle 24 (this one) in the 1910s though, and the 1890s appear to have had a fairly low cycle as well.

The 1897-1899 period was not really a La Nina period....Enso was not really a player....unless you think ENSO will be incredibly weak or counterfeit, those are pretty poor analogs in my opinion....

[Amped]

The 1897-1899 period was not really a La Nina period....Enso was not really a player....unless you think ENSO will be incredibly weak or counterfeit, those are pretty poor analogs in my opinion....

I'd say I don't trust enso data from 1899 unless there is a very strong signal.

[Bob Chill]

I'd say I don't trust enso data from 1899 unless there is a very strong signal.

Yea, I have a hard time with any index data pre-1950. Things like enso, nao/ao, etc can't possibly be accurately classified anywhere near the way they are now. I read an article about how tree rings are used to determine sunspot activity for hundreds if not thousands of years in the past. Kinda hard to compete with a telescope on that one.

Whenever I pull analog maps I always try to focus at least 1930+ and 1950+ even more. Problem with that is such a small dataset in the grand scheme. Heck, even 130 years is tiny.

LR forecasting is going to evolve into quite an accurate science down the road a ways. It will get even easier once we start globally controlling the weather with an app on our iphones. lol

[HM]

I have a snow event database that is at its beginning stages in terms of usefulness. I compile events from analogs based on various parameters. In terms of years that were similar to this upcoming winter stratospheric-wise, they all agreed that DC's snowiest week was 1/10-15. In fact, it is quite an elevated peak when graphing it out. There are other notable peaks (peaks/troughs matter more than actual number).

It is going to be interesting to watch this data unfold. This may be a snowier winter than I first imagined for the DC area, but I'll comment more on that in the next couple of weeks.

[WinterWxLuvr]

I have a snow event database that is at its beginning stages in terms of usefulness. I compile events from analogs based on various parameters. In terms of years that were similar to this upcoming winter stratospheric-wise, they all agreed that DC's snowiest week was 1/10-15. In fact, it is quite an elevated peak when graphing it out. There are other notable peaks (peaks/troughs matter more than actual number).

It is going to be interesting to watch this data unfold. This may be a snowier winter than I first imagined for the DC area, but I'll comment more on that in the next couple of weeks.

Ian has a pretty good chart with this data that he has posted before. Maybe he'll see this post and throw it in here to show what you are saying.

[Kevin Druff]

I have a snow event database that is at its beginning stages in terms of usefulness. I compile events from analogs based on various parameters. In terms of years that were similar to this upcoming winter stratospheric-wise, they all agreed that DC's snowiest week was 1/10-15. In fact, it is quite an elevated peak when graphing it out. There are other notable peaks (peaks/troughs matter more than actual number).

It is going to be interesting to watch this data unfold. This may be a snowier winter than I first imagined for the DC area, but I'll comment more on that in the next couple of weeks.

Ian has a pretty good chart with this data that he has posted before. Maybe he'll see this post and throw it in here to show what you are saying.

I believe Ian's data is for all DC winters. What I understand HM to be saying is he can match the current stratospheric and other criteria to past times and then move forward to see where we're likely to get snow.

If so, that's quite impressive, HM, and very-much more involved than Ian's data.

[Ji]

I have a snow event database that is at its beginning stages in terms of usefulness. I compile events from analogs based on various parameters. In terms of years that were similar to this upcoming winter stratospheric-wise, they all agreed that DC's snowiest week was 1/10-15. In fact, it is quite an elevated peak when graphing it out. There are other notable peaks (peaks/troughs matter more than actual number).

It is going to be interesting to watch this data unfold. This may be a snowier winter than I first imagined for the DC area, but I'll comment more on that in the next couple of weeks.

where is the erection icon?

[Jebman]

Consider that this has been a year of extremes already, and that the DCA region has been very, very wet since March 2011.

This wet trend has not let up.

If things stay this wet all winter, what with all we've seen thus far this year - DCA is likely to see a tremendous amount of rain in the low sun period, but also a tremendous amount of SNOW also in the low sun period.

Earlier I forecast a total of 9 inches of snow for the season in the N VA / DCA region.

That will have to be rethought. It could end up being five times the above estimate

[BethesdaWX]

This probably isn't worth much in a scientific sense, but something definitely seems different about this fall season relative to the others I've experienced. I've always payed close Physical and Visual attention to the state of the weather, climate, trends, tendancies, etc, even when I was a small child I'd try to get a visual and physical sense of the atmosphere and it's behavior. Again...totally unscientific but it's something I've always done and will continue to do.

The climate seems to be in an unstable state right now overall, and usually I find anomalies are equalized in heavy-handed ways. I'm not making any guesses or predictions based on this, but it just sticks out to me.

[Ellinwood]

Consider that this has been a year of extremes already, and that the DCA region has been very, very wet since March 2011.

May, June and July were drier than normal for most in the DC region.

[Bob Chill]

I've been looking at as much data as I can that I also understand and I keep coming up with a couple of 1960's analogs. The 84-87 stretch has some similarities as well. Not sold on the 95-96 one yet but I'm not one to listen too anyway.

I guessed 19.4 on the CWG contest. I don't think that # is too aggressive either.

[BethesdaWX]

18z GFS blows us hard in the LR

[ORH_wxman]

18z GFS blows us hard in the LR

Both 18z GFS ensembles and Euro ensembles are a torch in the long range for all of us...OP GFS is likely wrong. In fact, its actually colder than every single GEFS member.