Looking ahead to Winter 2011-2012?

[Amped]

The 1897-1899 period was not really a La Nina period....Enso was not really a player....unless you think ENSO will be incredibly weak or counterfeit, those are pretty poor analogs in my opinion....

I'd say I don't trust enso data from 1899 unless there is a very strong signal.

[Bob Chill]

I'd say I don't trust enso data from 1899 unless there is a very strong signal.

Yea, I have a hard time with any index data pre-1950. Things like enso, nao/ao, etc can't possibly be accurately classified anywhere near the way they are now. I read an article about how tree rings are used to determine sunspot activity for hundreds if not thousands of years in the past. Kinda hard to compete with a telescope on that one.

Whenever I pull analog maps I always try to focus at least 1930+ and 1950+ even more. Problem with that is such a small dataset in the grand scheme. Heck, even 130 years is tiny.

LR forecasting is going to evolve into quite an accurate science down the road a ways. It will get even easier once we start globally controlling the weather with an app on our iphones. lol

[HM]

I have a snow event database that is at its beginning stages in terms of usefulness. I compile events from analogs based on various parameters. In terms of years that were similar to this upcoming winter stratospheric-wise, they all agreed that DC's snowiest week was 1/10-15. In fact, it is quite an elevated peak when graphing it out. There are other notable peaks (peaks/troughs matter more than actual number).

It is going to be interesting to watch this data unfold. This may be a snowier winter than I first imagined for the DC area, but I'll comment more on that in the next couple of weeks.

[WinterWxLuvr]

I have a snow event database that is at its beginning stages in terms of usefulness. I compile events from analogs based on various parameters. In terms of years that were similar to this upcoming winter stratospheric-wise, they all agreed that DC's snowiest week was 1/10-15. In fact, it is quite an elevated peak when graphing it out. There are other notable peaks (peaks/troughs matter more than actual number).

It is going to be interesting to watch this data unfold. This may be a snowier winter than I first imagined for the DC area, but I'll comment more on that in the next couple of weeks.

Ian has a pretty good chart with this data that he has posted before. Maybe he'll see this post and throw it in here to show what you are saying.

[Kevin Druff]

I have a snow event database that is at its beginning stages in terms of usefulness. I compile events from analogs based on various parameters. In terms of years that were similar to this upcoming winter stratospheric-wise, they all agreed that DC's snowiest week was 1/10-15. In fact, it is quite an elevated peak when graphing it out. There are other notable peaks (peaks/troughs matter more than actual number).

It is going to be interesting to watch this data unfold. This may be a snowier winter than I first imagined for the DC area, but I'll comment more on that in the next couple of weeks.

Ian has a pretty good chart with this data that he has posted before. Maybe he'll see this post and throw it in here to show what you are saying.

I believe Ian's data is for all DC winters. What I understand HM to be saying is he can match the current stratospheric and other criteria to past times and then move forward to see where we're likely to get snow.

If so, that's quite impressive, HM, and very-much more involved than Ian's data.

[Ji]

I have a snow event database that is at its beginning stages in terms of usefulness. I compile events from analogs based on various parameters. In terms of years that were similar to this upcoming winter stratospheric-wise, they all agreed that DC's snowiest week was 1/10-15. In fact, it is quite an elevated peak when graphing it out. There are other notable peaks (peaks/troughs matter more than actual number).

It is going to be interesting to watch this data unfold. This may be a snowier winter than I first imagined for the DC area, but I'll comment more on that in the next couple of weeks.

where is the erection icon?

[Jebman]

Consider that this has been a year of extremes already, and that the DCA region has been very, very wet since March 2011.

This wet trend has not let up.

If things stay this wet all winter, what with all we've seen thus far this year - DCA is likely to see a tremendous amount of rain in the low sun period, but also a tremendous amount of SNOW also in the low sun period.

Earlier I forecast a total of 9 inches of snow for the season in the N VA / DCA region.

That will have to be rethought. It could end up being five times the above estimate

[BethesdaWX]

This probably isn't worth much in a scientific sense, but something definitely seems different about this fall season relative to the others I've experienced. I've always payed close Physical and Visual attention to the state of the weather, climate, trends, tendancies, etc, even when I was a small child I'd try to get a visual and physical sense of the atmosphere and it's behavior. Again...totally unscientific but it's something I've always done and will continue to do.

The climate seems to be in an unstable state right now overall, and usually I find anomalies are equalized in heavy-handed ways. I'm not making any guesses or predictions based on this, but it just sticks out to me.

[Ellinwood]

Consider that this has been a year of extremes already, and that the DCA region has been very, very wet since March 2011.

May, June and July were drier than normal for most in the DC region.

[Bob Chill]

I've been looking at as much data as I can that I also understand and I keep coming up with a couple of 1960's analogs. The 84-87 stretch has some similarities as well. Not sold on the 95-96 one yet but I'm not one to listen too anyway.

I guessed 19.4 on the CWG contest. I don't think that # is too aggressive either.

[BethesdaWX]

18z GFS blows us hard in the LR

[ORH_wxman]

18z GFS blows us hard in the LR

Both 18z GFS ensembles and Euro ensembles are a torch in the long range for all of us...OP GFS is likely wrong. In fact, its actually colder than every single GEFS member.

[BethesdaWX]

Both 18z GFS ensembles and Euro ensembles are a torch in the long range for all of us...OP GFS is likely wrong. In fact, its actually colder than every single GEFS member.

I agree, posted it more out of humor than anything else as I tried to hint at in my comment The page I use for the Euro ensemble plots isn't working for me but the GEFS definitely looked ugly when I last checked it.

I do find the continuing insistance of the operational GFS to build a healthy -NAO in the LR interesting though, the 00z GFS has one of the deepest -NAOs I've ever seen it show. Not saying I'm taking it seriously but I still like to watch that stuff.

[PhineasC]

18z GFS blows us hard in the LR

If you want people here to take your seriously and stop rejoicing when you get five-posted, you could stop posting anything related to the 18Z GFS in a long-range winter thread.

[easternsnowman]

I would'nt trust the 18z gfs long range for anything, let alone the ensembles or any ensembles for that matter.

[Ellinwood]

I would'nt trust the 18z gfs long range for anything, let alone the ensembles or any ensembles for that matter.

...wut

[easternsnowman]

...wut

My point is that more than 5 days out I'm not sold on any model saying it's going to be a "torch", I don't think the enesmbles are that reliable. The 18z gfs is the most unreliable anf the euro ensembles do have a warm bias. All that being said I do believe it warms up, but not like they are saying.

[Ellinwood]

My point is that more than 5 days out I'm not sold on any model saying it's going to be a "torch", I don't think the enesmbles are that reliable. The 18z gfs is the most unreliable anf the euro ensembles do have a warm bias. All that being said I do believe it warms up, but not like they are saying.

1) Ensembles are the BEST way to utilize model forecasts in the medium/long range... much more so than the operational models, so you're completely backward in that regard.

2) You've got a solid -PNA, +AO and +NAO and slightly +EPO heading into early next week, which all support a warmer East Coast. The only cool risk comes from the MJO, which is generally forecast to move into phase 5 next week (phase 5 in November reveals a cool east/warm west pattern). However, the MJO signal, while present, isn't that strong compared to some of the other teleconnections in the medium/long range.

[Kevin Druff]

My point is that more than 5 days out I'm not sold on any model saying it's going to be a "torch", I don't think the enesmbles are that reliable. The 18z gfs is the most unreliable anf the euro ensembles do have a warm bias. All that being said I do believe it warms up, but not like they are saying.

That makes almost zero sense, even correcting the typos. Based on the above, I'm going to assume you don't understand what ensembles are and how to use them.

[mitchnick]

a cold pattern before Thanksgiving is essentially always wasted

keep it wet, however

[clskinsfan]

I agree. Lets get the warm out the way now. Hopefully we get a nice pattern change heading into December. Keep the storm tracks where they are and get the cold air in here in December. It's game on.

[lbchandler]

1) Ensembles are the BEST way to utilize model forecasts in the medium/long range... much more so than the operational models, so you're completely backward in that regard.

2) You've got a solid -PNA, +AO and +NAO and slightly +EPO heading into early next week, which all support a warmer East Coast. The only cool risk comes from the MJO, which is generally forecast to move into phase 5 next week (phase 5 in November reveals a cool east/warm west pattern). However, the MJO signal, while present, isn't that strong compared to some of the other teleconnections in the medium/long range.

I realize that many of you do not agree with our friend Joe Bastardi on much of anything but I will just point out that since August he has been forecasting a normal or above normal first three weeks of November as far as temperatures are concerned and then a cold and snowy pattern is supposed to set in right around Thanksgiving and last through month od December which he says will be worst part of the winter season. I have no idea what you all think of his partner Joe D but basically he says same thing.

[Bob Chill]

a cold pattern before Thanksgiving is essentially always wasted

keep it wet, however

True but we really don't want to see a persitent SE ridge / trough west. If it's going to be seasonal, let it be progressive.

[WinterWxLuvr]

1) Ensembles are the BEST way to utilize model forecasts in the medium/long range... much more so than the operational models, so you're completely backward in that regard.

2) You've got a solid -PNA, +AO and +NAO and slightly +EPO heading into early next week, which all support a warmer East Coast. The only cool risk comes from the MJO, which is generally forecast to move into phase 5 next week (phase 5 in November reveals a cool east/warm west pattern). However, the MJO signal, while present, isn't that strong compared to some of the other teleconnections in the medium/long range.

That makes almost zero sense, even correcting the typos. Based on the above, I'm going to assume you don't understand what ensembles are and how to use them.

I understand what you guys are trying to say to this poster, but I think he's trying to say something that is generally true as well. I'm just trying to be positive with his post.

I'm sure that the people with the knowledge can use and interpret the ensembles in ways that most of us have no clue about. However, I do feel that to try and forecast weather two weeks ahead is an exercise in futility, ensembles or not. If there's any kind of data that can show me that I'm wrong, I'd love to see that. The poster did say 5 days, though. With respect to that, I'd say he's off in his comments. So, I guess I'm saying that I agree with you guys that a reasonable forecast for the first 5 days can be made and will generally be fairly accurate wrt the actual weather, that ensembles can give us a reasonable idea for the pattern and warm vs. cold for the 6-10 day period, and perhaps up to 12 days, but that after that time frame, it's a whole lot more up in the air and any forecast made for that time frame is not something to get excited about or depressed about.

[easternsnowman]

I realize that many of you do not agree with our friend Joe Bastardi on much of anything but I will just point out that since August he has been forecasting a normal or above normal first three weeks of November as far as temperatures are concerned and then a cold and snowy pattern is supposed to set in right around Thanksgiving and last through month od December which he says will be worst part of the winter season. I have no idea what you all think of his partner Joe D but basically he says same thing.

I do agree with what he is saying, I just think we will not be as warm the first 3 weeks as some say.

[BethesdaWX]

If you want people here to take your seriously and stop rejoicing when you get five-posted, you could stop posting anything related to the 18Z GFS in a long-range winter thread.

We gonna freeze man, can't you see it? Never doubt the 300hr GFS, it's always right.

[easternsnowman]

That makes almost zero sense, even correcting the typos. Based on the above, I'm going to assume you don't understand what ensembles are and how to use them.

What do the "typos" have to with it?

[WinterWxLuvr]

We gonna freeze man, can't you see it? Never doubt the 300hr GFS, it's always right.

Why does that map say 9/27?

[Kevin Druff]

What do the "typos" have to with it?

Absolutely nothing. But, if you're going to post things with no basis in fact, please do so with appropriate punctuation and spelling. That way I'm not distracted by squiggly red lines indicating such when I reply.

I understand what you guys are trying to say to this poster, but I think he's trying to say something that is generally true as well. I'm just trying to be positive with his post.

I'm sure that the people with the knowledge can use and interpret the ensembles in ways that most of us have no clue about. However, I do feel that to try and forecast weather two weeks ahead is an exercise in futility, ensembles or not. If there's any kind of data that can show me that I'm wrong, I'd love to see that. The poster did say 5 days, though. With respect to that, I'd say he's off in his comments. So, I guess I'm saying that I agree with you guys that a reasonable forecast for the first 5 days can be made and will generally be fairly accurate wrt the actual weather, that ensembles can give us a reasonable idea for the pattern and warm vs. cold for the 6-10 day period, and perhaps up to 12 days, but that after that time frame, it's a whole lot more up in the air and any forecast made for that time frame is not something to get excited about or depressed about.

I'm no expert, but, I am pretty good at reading and learning. Folks who know more than I almost always look to the ensembles when talking D+8. Yes, they'll look at and mention the OP run, but, more often than not, it's in comparison to the ensembles.

The ensembles aren't used to make a forecast two weeks ahead. They're used to talk potential and patterns. If you see a handful of members with similar solutions (e.g. cold east/warm west), your confidence increases that such a pattern will evolve. In the long range, GFS and Euro ensembles are tools for increasing confidence of broad-stroke patterns, IMO.

To my knowledge the following statements the poster made have NO basis in fact: ensembles are "not reliable;" the 18z GFS is the "most unreliable;" Euro ensembles have a "warm bias."

[ORH_wxman]

I'm no expert, but, I am pretty good at reading and learning. Folks who know more than I almost always look to the ensembles when talking D+8. Yes, they'll look at and mention the OP run, but, more often than not, it's in comparison to the ensembles.

The ensembles aren't used to make a forecast two weeks ahead. They're used to talk potential and patterns. If you see a handful of members with similar solutions (e.g. cold east/warm west), your confidence increases that such a pattern will evolve. In the long range, GFS and Euro ensembles are tools for increasing confidence of broad-stroke patterns, IMO.

To my knowledge the following statements the poster made have NO basis in fact: ensembles are "not reliable;" the 18z GFS is the "most unreliable;" Euro ensembles have a "warm bias."

Yes...you'd never try and forecast something like a snowstorm 2 weeks out on the ensembles, but the larger scale patterns can be diagnosed with at least some skill in that time frame.

Using other factors too like the MJO forecasts and such can help raise or lower confidence in a pattern the ensembles show.