Deck Pic Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 It has to better than last year, right? why?.....it was a below normal temp winter with ~60-80% median snow.....worse has, can and will happen again and often absolutely nothing to suggest it has to be better....nothing at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 It has to better than last year, right? Last winter was fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Last winter was fine. Cold/dry.. Warm/wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Cold/dry.. Warm/wet Put them in layers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Last winter was fine. Of course it was. La Ninas are always better north outside of DC/Balt metro where you live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 dec 26 wasnt a near miss? i dont remember jan 11... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 I'd probably go with something similar to zwyts' outlook right now but I did text him that I'd add about 4-6" to DCA's snowfall if we went warm neutral for ENSO rather than cold neutral. Just a gut feeling as warm neutral actually has some polarizing results for DCA...some years have been horrible like '58-'59 and '90-'91 and others were pretty good like '79-'80 and '53-'54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 dec 26 wasnt a near miss? i dont remember jan 11... not imo....we weren't close to big snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Analogs that might be useful are 1967-68, 1974-75, and 2008-09. All were 2nd year Ninas after a Nino, featured the -PDO, the +AMO, and at least 2 of the 3 likely featured the +IOD. 2 of the 3 winters were in a period of lower solar activity as well (2008-09, 1974-75). Of course this assuming the ENSO doesn't revert to neutral instead of a Nina. Past history would argue against that though. But low solar is important regarding the NAO, as is the QBO. QBO DEC/JAN/FEB 1967/68: -7.27 -8.38 -10.21 1974/75: 22.57 -16.70 -15.39 2008-09: 10.46 10.71 12.33 2008/09 is the only year with a +QBO, so it may be an outlier presuming our QBO drops into negative territory. Precipitation data is all confuzzled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 As long as it snows at some point during the winter, I'll be happy. Set the bar low and you all won't be disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 What happened here in 96-97? I was living in CO most of the 90's but I have a possible theory for the EC this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 What happened here in 96-97? I was living in CO most of the 90's but I have a possible theory for the EC this winter. I was living in Silver Spring that winter...It was anti-climactic after 95-96...I think I got 11" for the winter....I know the further NW burbs did quite a bit better though...It was basically a warm winter with a few notable arctic shots.....all 3 months were well above normal.....and there were a decent number of events but almost all were nuisance events where I was with very little impact....there were 2 notable events...one was 2nd week of January....multi day event of snow to mix to snow....there may have been some down time and gaps....maybe 3-4"....some areas did better....the other was 2nd week of February and was a classic 4-8" SECS over a weekend....melted quickly...fairly low impact.....Baltimore did ok with the April Fools storm but it missed DC completely... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 We had a very strong shot of arctic air in mid January as the low at Richmond that winter was 4 degrees. This was associated with about an inch of snow. There was a similar event in C VA about a week before Christmas and then in early February, but as zwyts noted, it was a rather futile winter with only about 4" total officially at RIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 I was living in Silver Spring that winter...It was anti-climactic after 95-96...I think I got 11" for the winter....I know the further NW burbs did quite a bit better though...It was basically a warm winter with a few notable arctic shots.....all 3 months were well above normal.....and there were a decent number of events but almost all were nuisance events where I was with very little impact....there were 2 notable events...one was 2nd week of January....multi day event of snow to mix to snow....there may have been some down time and gaps....maybe 3-4"....some areas did better....the other was 2nd week of February and was a classic 4-8" SECS over a weekend....melted quickly...fairly low impact.....Baltimore did ok with the April Fools storm but it missed DC completely... '96-'97 was so warm, and had very few larger type systems in January and February. Just an overall terrible pattern in mid-winter. Thankfully there's a lot of things different about the current state of the oceans and atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 I was living in Silver Spring that winter...It was anti-climactic after 95-96...I think I got 11" for the winter....I know the further NW burbs did quite a bit better though...It was basically a warm winter with a few notable arctic shots.....all 3 months were well above normal.....and there were a decent number of events but almost all were nuisance events where I was with very little impact....there were 2 notable events...one was 2nd week of January....multi day event of snow to mix to snow....there may have been some down time and gaps....maybe 3-4"....some areas did better....the other was 2nd week of February and was a classic 4-8" SECS over a weekend....melted quickly...fairly low impact.....Baltimore did ok with the April Fools storm but it missed DC completely... it was warm as he!! the first week of Jan, 97 I mowed my lawn on the anniversary of the 96 Bliz, whining the entire time (honestly!) then we got the 2nd week event you mentioned we just can't put 2 great winters back-to-back around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 well, looks like the CFS extended gives us hope of a 12 year anniversary storm (note date!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 I was living in Silver Spring that winter...It was anti-climactic after 95-96...I think I got 11" for the winter....I know the further NW burbs did quite a bit better though...It was basically a warm winter with a few notable arctic shots.....all 3 months were well above normal.....and there were a decent number of events but almost all were nuisance events where I was with very little impact....there were 2 notable events...one was 2nd week of January....multi day event of snow to mix to snow....there may have been some down time and gaps....maybe 3-4"....some areas did better....the other was 2nd week of February and was a classic 4-8" SECS over a weekend....melted quickly...fairly low impact.....Baltimore did ok with the April Fools storm but it missed DC completely... That was the storm that would not accumulate on pavement during the daylight hours, even under heavier rates. Trees and grass were all coated, so it was a pretty storm, but nothing stuck on roads until after dark. Last winter was way better here than '96-'97. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 That was the storm that would not accumulate on pavement during the daylight hours, even under heavier rates. Trees and grass were all coated, so it was a pretty storm, but nothing stuck on roads until after dark. Last winter was way better here than '96-'97. It kind of accumulated here and there on sides of the road but couldn't get heavy enough...I remember clearly.....IAD went below freezing in the afternoon...they got close to 7".....I don't remember more than 4" where I was....it was a sh-it winter for immediate DC metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 I dont think i can take another snowless winter. Last year we at least had stuff to track....this year?? Moving north won't help. I'm expecting a mild and low snow winter in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 I think I have my years mixed up. I lived in Summit County CO for 7 years (1992-1999) and worked for a ski area. This past season had one of the top 5 snow seasons including a massive May. The base @ Arapahoe Basin topped 100" this year (very uncommon). When I lived there the base only hit 100" one time and there was a 36" Memorial Day storm. I can't remember what year it was. The year I'm trying to remember was a Nina (not totally sure about this) and January alone had 160". My only curiosity is what transpired on the EC the following year because this year was spot on similar. I'll call some old friends and see what I can find out. Not really any depth to my analog but at least it will keep me interested during the warm season. I don't really have any high expectations for this upcoming winter. It's always a challenge to combine precip and cold temp in a MA winter regardless of the state of ENSO and the overall patterns. The odds will always favor more rain than snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 BethesdaWX mentioned QBO- can someone explain to me what that is and how it affects the winters here? Every once in awhile I see this mentioned by someone but I don't know what it means. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 BethesdaWX mentioned QBO- can someone explain to me what that is and how it affects the winters here? Every once in awhile I see this mentioned by someone but I don't know what it means. Thanks. this explains it http://ugamp.nerc.ac.uk/hot/ajh/qbo.htm these are the numbers updated monthly around the 7th http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 I think I have my years mixed up. I lived in Summit County CO for 7 years (1992-1999) and worked for a ski area. This past season had one of the top 5 snow seasons including a massive May. The base @ Arapahoe Basin topped 100" this year (very uncommon). When I lived there the base only hit 100" one time and there was a 36" Memorial Day storm. I can't remember what year it was. The year I'm trying to remember was a Nina (not totally sure about this) and January alone had 160". My only curiosity is what transpired on the EC the following year because this year was spot on similar. I'll call some old friends and see what I can find out. Not really any depth to my analog but at least it will keep me interested during the warm season. I don't really have any high expectations for this upcoming winter. It's always a challenge to combine precip and cold temp in a MA winter regardless of the state of ENSO and the overall patterns. The odds will always favor more rain than snow. I believe the big year for Arapahoe when they stayed open til August was 1994-95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 I believe the big year for Arapahoe when they stayed open til August was 1994-95 You are correct. I checked my old pictures and called some old friends. My memory mashed up 94-95 and 95-96. It was January of 1996 that had 160" of snow. It was the 94-95 season with the big base and late snow. Hmm.... If my barely scientific analog is correct then........95-96 redux this year? lol ENSO isn't a good fit but who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted June 15, 2011 Author Share Posted June 15, 2011 dec 26 wasnt a near miss? i dont remember jan 11... Dec 26 was a near miss...it snowed everywhere but dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted June 15, 2011 Author Share Posted June 15, 2011 As long as it snows at some point during the winter, I'll be happy. Set the bar low and you all won't be disappointed. Usually when I set the bar low...I get lower results than the bar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 well, looks like the CFS extended gives us hope of a 12 year anniversary storm (note date!) Eh, that's the 5496h CFS...everyone knows it's useless past 5400 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Eh, that's the 5496h CFS...everyone knows it's useless past 5400 hours... The best part is he hot-linked it vs. uploading it, so now it's a completely different image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 The best part is he hot-linked it vs. uploading it, so now it's a completely different image. Apps runner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Remember if we get a -QBO thats not bad, but wasnt 2001-2002 a -QBO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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