RIC Airport Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 We had a very strong shot of arctic air in mid January as the low at Richmond that winter was 4 degrees. This was associated with about an inch of snow. There was a similar event in C VA about a week before Christmas and then in early February, but as zwyts noted, it was a rather futile winter with only about 4" total officially at RIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 I was living in Silver Spring that winter...It was anti-climactic after 95-96...I think I got 11" for the winter....I know the further NW burbs did quite a bit better though...It was basically a warm winter with a few notable arctic shots.....all 3 months were well above normal.....and there were a decent number of events but almost all were nuisance events where I was with very little impact....there were 2 notable events...one was 2nd week of January....multi day event of snow to mix to snow....there may have been some down time and gaps....maybe 3-4"....some areas did better....the other was 2nd week of February and was a classic 4-8" SECS over a weekend....melted quickly...fairly low impact.....Baltimore did ok with the April Fools storm but it missed DC completely... '96-'97 was so warm, and had very few larger type systems in January and February. Just an overall terrible pattern in mid-winter. Thankfully there's a lot of things different about the current state of the oceans and atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 I was living in Silver Spring that winter...It was anti-climactic after 95-96...I think I got 11" for the winter....I know the further NW burbs did quite a bit better though...It was basically a warm winter with a few notable arctic shots.....all 3 months were well above normal.....and there were a decent number of events but almost all were nuisance events where I was with very little impact....there were 2 notable events...one was 2nd week of January....multi day event of snow to mix to snow....there may have been some down time and gaps....maybe 3-4"....some areas did better....the other was 2nd week of February and was a classic 4-8" SECS over a weekend....melted quickly...fairly low impact.....Baltimore did ok with the April Fools storm but it missed DC completely... it was warm as he!! the first week of Jan, 97 I mowed my lawn on the anniversary of the 96 Bliz, whining the entire time (honestly!) then we got the 2nd week event you mentioned we just can't put 2 great winters back-to-back around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 well, looks like the CFS extended gives us hope of a 12 year anniversary storm (note date!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 I was living in Silver Spring that winter...It was anti-climactic after 95-96...I think I got 11" for the winter....I know the further NW burbs did quite a bit better though...It was basically a warm winter with a few notable arctic shots.....all 3 months were well above normal.....and there were a decent number of events but almost all were nuisance events where I was with very little impact....there were 2 notable events...one was 2nd week of January....multi day event of snow to mix to snow....there may have been some down time and gaps....maybe 3-4"....some areas did better....the other was 2nd week of February and was a classic 4-8" SECS over a weekend....melted quickly...fairly low impact.....Baltimore did ok with the April Fools storm but it missed DC completely... That was the storm that would not accumulate on pavement during the daylight hours, even under heavier rates. Trees and grass were all coated, so it was a pretty storm, but nothing stuck on roads until after dark. Last winter was way better here than '96-'97. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 I dont think i can take another snowless winter. Last year we at least had stuff to track....this year?? Moving north won't help. I'm expecting a mild and low snow winter in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 I think I have my years mixed up. I lived in Summit County CO for 7 years (1992-1999) and worked for a ski area. This past season had one of the top 5 snow seasons including a massive May. The base @ Arapahoe Basin topped 100" this year (very uncommon). When I lived there the base only hit 100" one time and there was a 36" Memorial Day storm. I can't remember what year it was. The year I'm trying to remember was a Nina (not totally sure about this) and January alone had 160". My only curiosity is what transpired on the EC the following year because this year was spot on similar. I'll call some old friends and see what I can find out. Not really any depth to my analog but at least it will keep me interested during the warm season. I don't really have any high expectations for this upcoming winter. It's always a challenge to combine precip and cold temp in a MA winter regardless of the state of ENSO and the overall patterns. The odds will always favor more rain than snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 BethesdaWX mentioned QBO- can someone explain to me what that is and how it affects the winters here? Every once in awhile I see this mentioned by someone but I don't know what it means. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 BethesdaWX mentioned QBO- can someone explain to me what that is and how it affects the winters here? Every once in awhile I see this mentioned by someone but I don't know what it means. Thanks. this explains it http://ugamp.nerc.ac.uk/hot/ajh/qbo.htm these are the numbers updated monthly around the 7th http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 I believe the big year for Arapahoe when they stayed open til August was 1994-95 You are correct. I checked my old pictures and called some old friends. My memory mashed up 94-95 and 95-96. It was January of 1996 that had 160" of snow. It was the 94-95 season with the big base and late snow. Hmm.... If my barely scientific analog is correct then........95-96 redux this year? lol ENSO isn't a good fit but who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted June 15, 2011 Author Share Posted June 15, 2011 dec 26 wasnt a near miss? i dont remember jan 11... Dec 26 was a near miss...it snowed everywhere but dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted June 15, 2011 Author Share Posted June 15, 2011 As long as it snows at some point during the winter, I'll be happy. Set the bar low and you all won't be disappointed. Usually when I set the bar low...I get lower results than the bar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 well, looks like the CFS extended gives us hope of a 12 year anniversary storm (note date!) Eh, that's the 5496h CFS...everyone knows it's useless past 5400 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Eh, that's the 5496h CFS...everyone knows it's useless past 5400 hours... The best part is he hot-linked it vs. uploading it, so now it's a completely different image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 The best part is he hot-linked it vs. uploading it, so now it's a completely different image. Apps runner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Remember if we get a -QBO thats not bad, but wasnt 2001-2002 a -QBO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Remember if we get a -QBO thats not bad, but wasnt 2001-2002 a -QBO? According to that data that mitchnick posted, 01-02 was a +QBO. In looking at some of our real snowy winters, most all seem to have a -QBO on that chart; however, there's a couple of them with real -QBO's that were still really crappy winters here (91/92, 00/01, 07/08) so I don't know how important it is. Though I'm not understanding a lot of this and how it correlates to our winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJ3 Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 I am sorry if I missed it but has there been any posts/threads on the recent news of continued decreased sun spot activity to the point of maybe even entering a Maunder Minimum and impacts on Mid Atlantic Winters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Don't worry JI, the CFS can only get colder from here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 All CFS forecasts have a Negative-Neutral to Weak La Nina next winter for Nino 3.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 other than 1976-77 there isn't a single El Nino event in the last 100+ years that proceeded a mod/strong La Nina....neutral/weak La Nina is a safe bet so you're saying there's a chance then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 I hope this winter is straight up ENSO neutral. It would be great to see the reasoning with the winter forecasts in October without Nina/Nino on the table. The HM's and Don S's of the board will have some truly excellent and intellectual posts about the finer details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted July 3, 2011 Share Posted July 3, 2011 Over at the accuweather forums BtownWxWatcher posted an analogue map that factored in Winters after 2 straight Winters of a -NAO with a -.5 departure or more. The Winters used also included the full ENSO spectrum. Here are the results: According to this we could see another cold one. Factor in the potential for a -QBO and the chances of colder than normal weather increase even more. Oh, I'm new by the way. Nice to meet you all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 3, 2011 Share Posted July 3, 2011 Over at the accuweather forums BtownWxWatcher posted an analogue map that factored in Winters after 2 straight Winters of a -NAO with a -.5 departure or more. The Winters used also included the full ENSO spectrum. Here are the results: According to this we could see another cold one. Factor in the potential for a -QBO and the chances of colder than normal weather increase even more. Oh, I'm new by the way. Nice to meet you all. Welcome! Gonna have to kind of mirror what zwyts said to a degree on this one... it's quite difficult to pick up on NAO "trends" this far out, especially when regarding year-to-year analogs with little or no significant correlation beyond the NAO signal. Also, using strictly the "winters after 2 straight winters of a NAO dep. of -0.5 or more," the analogs should also include 1965-1966 (3rd year in a 4-year streak) and 1979-1980 (the 3rd of 3 consecutive years). Though, even with these analogs, the signal doesn't change significantly from the map you presented. My initial thoughts for the region is that we end up near normal to slightly below normal for the winter... but that forecast is still a couple of months too early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted July 3, 2011 Share Posted July 3, 2011 Welcome! Gonna have to kind of mirror what zwyts said to a degree on this one... it's quite difficult to pick up on NAO "trends" this far out, especially when regarding year-to-year analogs with little or no significant correlation beyond the NAO signal. Also, using strictly the "winters after 2 straight winters of a NAO dep. of -0.5 or more," the analogs should also include 1965-1966 (3rd year in a 4-year streak) and 1979-1980 (the 3rd of 3 consecutive years). Though, even with these analogs, the signal doesn't change significantly from the map you presented. My initial thoughts for the region is that we end up near normal to slightly below normal for the winter... but that forecast is still a couple of months too early I'd like a snowfall forecast, please. I'd like dates and amounts as well. No, seriously, you did a great job last year with snow forecast maps, especially for my area. Hopefully you get the chance to be able to forecast some higher totals this time around. Any thoughts on an analog to what we likely see this winter wrt atmosphere, solar, and ocean conditions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 3, 2011 Share Posted July 3, 2011 I'd like a snowfall forecast, please. I'd like dates and amounts as well. No, seriously, you did a great job last year with snow forecast maps, especially for my area. Hopefully you get the chance to be able to forecast some higher totals this time around. Any thoughts on an analog to what we likely see this winter wrt atmosphere, solar, and ocean conditions? Snowfall forecasts were alright... had some bigger misses towards the end Did good on some storms, though. I haven't even looked at winter yet... we still have two months of summer to go! Gotta enjoy the warmth and storms before the return of the evil cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted July 3, 2011 Share Posted July 3, 2011 Oh, I'm new by the way. Nice to meet you all. I hope you're not that father frost guy that used to post at eastern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted July 3, 2011 Share Posted July 3, 2011 I hope you're not that father frost guy that used to post at eastern. I am, as far as I remember I did nothing to earn myself a bad name there. I tried to login to that account here but it wouldnt work no matter what I tried so, I made a new one. Is there something wrong with me being the old user FatherFrost? The only thing I can remember that people showed disdain for was that I posted a preliminary winter outlook and the bashing commenced...for some reason...it was too vague or something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 that sample size isn't very meaningful nor do the parameters have any statistical significance, but that doesn't mean we won't have a cold winter.....I think what we are seeing in the pattern now, continues into winter.....which is transience......usually a transient/progressive pattern is warm in the means for us in the winter.....we get arctic blasts and sometimes meaningful ones, but they are brief and not enough to offset the warm periods.....unless we get a surprise Nino and I think that is unlikely, we aren't going to have a good Pacific in a weak nina or neutral winter.....we could get a blocky winter and that will keep us cold in the means, but it will typically be a dry cold with a storm track to our west.....so it doesn't excite me that much.....still lots to decipher over the next 4-5 months although I have to agree with you on that statement, if one looks just at the change in equatorial water temps and the current anomalies vs. what the models are saying, it does look like a developing NINO imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Analogs that might be useful are 1967-68, 1974-75, and 2008-09. All were 2nd year Ninas after a Nino, featured the -PDO, the +AMO, and at least 2 of the 3 likely featured the +IOD. 2 of the 3 winters were in a period of lower solar activity as well (2008-09, 1974-75). Of course this assuming the ENSO doesn't revert to neutral instead of a Nina. Past history would argue against that though. But low solar is important regarding the NAO, as is the QBO. QBO DEC/JAN/FEB 1967/68: -7.27 -8.38 -10.21 1974/75: 22.57 -16.70 -15.39 2008-09: 10.46 10.71 12.33 To add into this post, if the -QBO were to not manifest cleanly, I'd think that my analogue choice above might need to be thrown out. I know I'd favor the -AO/-NAO regime given the low Geomagnetic Flux & Weak Solar Wind (assuming it doesn't strengthen). I don't think it is any coincidence that the Strongest -AO in history occured during the lowest Geomagnetic Flux via AP index in recorded history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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