Ellinwood Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Updated forecast using new normals and different weighting to a few of the analog years: Full discussion on the update: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 we saw that on the models last winter and it never really took effect.....even if we get something fluky that nails us (March 1999), a perfectly timed phase (Jan2000), or something more conventional in an ideal blocking pattern (Dec 31 1970), we still probably only get 80-125% of snow climo. just like we did in those winters....2nd and 3rd years of multi year nina events are not counterfeit...they are legit....Nina is real the nina polar jet probably kept dec 2010 from cutting west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 good luck...it is hard not to go normal or below with the new norms....where is the positive precip anomaly over the Ohio Valley? Cold/dry periods will compete with cool/wet periods in the Ohio Valley, which I expect to average out to near normal. And yes, the new anomalies make it a lot easier to get belows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 I'll take the over....good luck...that is an ambitious temp forecast though certainly not unreasonable I'm always a fan of being near consensus but differing in a few areas Don't plan it that way... just how it usually works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 didn't help us....it b-itch slapped us it's consistent with your point about ninas in dc. progressive is almost always bad for dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 it's consistent with your point about ninas in dc. progressive is almost always bad for dc I've been saying that in AP for years! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 it's consistent with your point about ninas in dc. progressive is almost always bad for dc Its sometimes why the Carolinas and SE VA can cash in...they'll grab the NW side of some of those progressive systems before they exit stage right. DC is definitely more reliant on the STJ than those other areas to get above normal snow...esp since they also average an amount of snow that one storm won't make or break them as zwyts already mentioned. SE VA catches one good storm and they make climo. I think the best pattern for DC would be a Jan 1996 type pattern where the polar jet splits enough to create a southern stream that is viable for getting snow events that far south. That or a flukish STJ like Feb '96 saw, but that is unlikely given we are in a 2nd year Nina and its likely going to be moderate. Huge +PNA ridges too...root for those in DC...that's how to try and get the polar jet far enough south (ala 1/26 last year) for snow events without worrying about Miller B redevelopment or a southwest flow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 typically when we have 2 la nina 's 2 yrs in a row, the second is usually colder and a little more severe( relative to normal)... of course it all depends alot on the NAO, AO , and PDO . and with the NAO, thats hard to predict months in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Its sometimes why the Carolinas and SE VA can cash in...they'll grab the NW side of some of those progressive systems before they exit stage right. DC is definitely more reliant on the STJ than those other areas to get above normal snow...esp since they also average an amount of snow that one storm won't make or break them as zwyts already mentioned. SE VA catches one good storm and they make climo. I think the best pattern for DC would be a Jan 1996 type pattern where the polar jet splits enough to create a southern stream that is viable for getting snow events that far south. That or a flukish STJ like Feb '96 saw, but that is unlikely given we are in a 2nd year Nina and its likely going to be moderate. Huge +PNA ridges too...root for those in DC...that's how to try and get the polar jet far enough south (ala 1/26 last year) for snow events without worrying about Miller B redevelopment or a southwest flow event. Has the STJ been a bit more heavy handed this fall? Not saying it would mean anything for winter, and definitely still weaker than our recent Ninos, but it definitely seems like there has been more punch to it thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Has the STJ been a bit more heavy handed this fall? Not saying it would mean anything for winter, and definitely still weaker than our recent Ninos, but it definitely seems like there has been more punch to it thus far. It looks like its been dead this month. It really hasn't been a factor since spring of 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 It looks like its been dead this month. It really hasn't been a factor since spring of 2010. Oh, am I mis-attributing the stormier conditions in the south & east this fall versus last fall? The cut-off lows phasing/passing to the SW doesn't register with me I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Oh, am I mis-attributing the stormier conditions in the south & east this fall versus last fall? The cut-off lows phasing/passing to the SW doesn't register with me I guess. The storms this autumn haven't been associated with an active STJ. You do not want to read too much into that stuff because the polar jet is much further north and weaker in the autumn and it will look different come winter. Its more common to get cutoff lows on either side of winter since the flow tends to be less progressive with weaker jet. So we've seen some of these troughs dig down and cutoff this autumn. The PJ has actually been stronger than normal coming off the PAC NW this fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 the nina polar jet probably kept dec 2010 from cutting west YesIt was. Specifically the stupid final shortwave that HM mentioned many times before the storm. The H5 low was this about to close off over WNC before that pulled everything northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phils1 Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Detailed video discussion on the "2011-2012 WinterOutlook" at spam.com (under "SeasonalForecasts" at right) with a breakdown of the major factors including -PDO,-NAO, LaNina (weak, east-based), low solar activity and high current NorthernHemisphere snow cover extent. Itincludes specific forecasts for DC to Boston (snowier and colder relative tonormal as one goes up the coast). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Detailed video discussion on the "2011-2012 WinterOutlook" at spam.com (under "SeasonalForecasts" at right) with a breakdown of the major factors including -PDO,-NAO, LaNina (weak, east-based), low solar activity and high current NorthernHemisphere snow cover extent. Itincludes specific forecasts for DC to Boston (snowier and colder relative tonormal as one goes up the coast). the tl;dw for those who don't want to skim through the 15:29 video... Any verifications for this guy? Also, welcome phils1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Saw my first wooly bear thingy or whatever the heck those fuzzy things are called...while mowing yesterday...fat and all black...also a few years ago when Dave moved down here from New Hampshire....all black fuzzy thingy....big winter!! This year new neighbors are from Chicago...all black fuzzy thingy?????? Ahhhh science Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Saw my first wooly bear thingy or whatever the heck those fuzzy things are called...while mowing yesterday...fat and all black...also a few years ago when Dave moved down here from New Hampshire....all black fuzzy thingy....big winter!! This year new neighbors are from Chicago...all black fuzzy thingy?????? Ahhhh science I've seen a lot of them while doing yardwork the last few weeks. Almost all black, save a few stripes. I'm riding the wooly bear train... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Saw my first wooly bear thingy or whatever the heck those fuzzy things are called...while mowing yesterday...fat and all black...also a few years ago when Dave moved down here from New Hampshire....all black fuzzy thingy....big winter!! This year new neighbors are from Chicago...all black fuzzy thingy?????? Ahhhh science I saw one yesterday as well cutting the lawn, it was a big one too. Hmmm??????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXW176 Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Saw my first wooly bear thingy or whatever the heck those fuzzy things are called...while mowing yesterday...fat and all black...also a few years ago when Dave moved down here from New Hampshire....all black fuzzy thingy....big winter!! This year new neighbors are from Chicago...all black fuzzy thingy?????? Ahhhh science I've seen a lot of them while doing yardwork the last few weeks. Almost all black, save a few stripes. I'm riding the wooly bear train... I saw one yesterday as well cutting the lawn, it was a big one too. Hmmm??????? I haven't seen one yet. However, I predict it will be cold at some point this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 I haven't seen one yet. However, I predict it will be cold at some point this winter. It all your hot air you produce, rain and 33 for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 the last time I saw a full black fur worm thing really was in 2002 ( ) but haven't seen any since Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXW176 Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 It all your hot air you produce, rain and 33 for you. Hope you had fun shopping today. I just finished landscaping your backyard so it matches the front: Gonna be a muddy mess if you are lucky enough to see any precip this winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 I saw one yesterday as well cutting the lawn, it was a big one too. Hmmm??????? Really? WOW...... I haven't seen one here in northeast Tennessee yet, but if yours are big enough to cut a lawn, that's just crazy crazy stuff. haha. oh, and sorry to invade your regional thread, just couldn't help myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Really? WOW...... I haven't seen one here in northeast Tennessee yet, but if yours are big enough to cut a lawn, that's just crazy crazy stuff. haha. oh, and sorry to invade your regional thread, just couldn't help myself. My economics professor at U of MD back in the late 70's was from Johnson City, TN Chester Peake was his name; he was living in MD back then, of course, and I don't know if he's still living great guy, great parties at his house too (his wife had left him and took most of the furniture so most rooms in his house were for dancing, etc.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Hope you had fun shopping today. I just finished landscaping your backyard so it matches the front: Gonna be a muddy mess if you are lucky enough to see any precip this winter... :axe: you need shut up mister, before you find more pieces of siding all over your yard Really? WOW...... I haven't seen one here in northeast Tennessee yet, but if yours are big enough to cut a lawn, that's just crazy crazy stuff. haha. oh, and sorry to invade your regional thread, just couldn't help myself. Well Played tnweathernut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Here's my short but not so sweet winter forecast. We have a second year nina (Or neutral following a nina) and a strong -PDO. That is not to good for mid Atlantic snow. In a nutshell, I think this will be a lot like a Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue: All teasing, No pleasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Here's my short but not so sweet winter forecast. We have a second year nina (Or neutral following a nina) and a strong -PDO. That is not to good for mid Atlantic snow. In a nutshell, I think this will be a lot like a Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue: All teasing, No pleasing. You do realize that before 2009-10, the record holder (1917-18) in DCA was a second-year Niña, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 You do realize that before 2009-10, the record holder (1917-18) in DCA was a second-year Niña, right? No it was 1898/99 not 1917/18, either way that was just a result of a deep -NAO during the dalton minimum despite it being a 2nd yr La Nina. 1917/18 was just very cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 No it was 1898/99 not 1917/18, either way that was just a result of a deep -NAO during the dalton minimum despite it being a 2nd yr La Nina. 1917/18 was just very cold. Oh sorry I meant 1898-99... I knew it was one of my top 2 analogs for this winter. That was not the Dalton Minimum -- Dalton was in the 1820s. There was a solar minimum similar to cycle 24 (this one) in the 1910s though, and the 1890s appear to have had a fairly low cycle as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Oh sorry I meant 1898-99... I knew it was one of my top 2 analogs for this winter. That was not the Dalton Minimum -- Dalton was in the 1820s. There was a solar minimum similar to cycle 24 (this one) in the 1910s though, and the 1890s appear to have had a fairly low cycle as well. Pardon me if this response is incoherent I'm going on my second all nighter (Calculus ftl) and am exhasuted. Yes not officially the Dalton but I tend to include that period as part of the longer span of weaker solar activity relative to the moderm max that began in the late 1920s. I believe the Sporer Minimum was the beginning of the longer timespan of weaker sun activity (correct me if I'm wrong), followed immediately by the Maunder Minimum, a small spike in the 1770s before another period of weak solar activity from ~ 1800 through 1920 before the moderm maximum from then until 2006. I've also been curious about the Solar-PDO connection as there seems to be something to it however the Sun driving the PDO seems farfetched. Only thing I think we know is a -PDO/La Nina represents net energy loss from earth, visa-versa with El Nino/+PDO, and it'd make sense with where the Sun positions equatorial clouds through shifts in the blocking pattern. So 1898/99 being a La Nina and trying to compare to this season may not be as "out there" as I originally thought but still can't see anything close to that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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