ORH_wxman Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 pretty much agree with this, that's why 09/10 was perfect great snow in DEC (though rainy Christmas was a little disappointing, but that's weenie nit-picking) and the last consequential snow was on 2/10 (darn shame we missed the storm the end of FEB, but there I go nit-picking again!) when you think about it, 3/1/09 storm foretold the winter of 09/10 and the 2/25/10 foretold the winter of 10/11 I hope the cr@p we got in FEB of 2011 doesn't foretell this winter Potent El Nino is great for you guys provided there is blocking. Every single time that happens, the DC/BWI area cleans up. La Nina is bad for you. Its easy to be pessimistic for the MA in a Nina. Doesn't mean it will happen, but no reason to think there will be big storms there without an active STJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Potent El Nino is great for you guys provided there is blocking. Every single time that happens, the DC/BWI area cleans up. La Nina is bad for you. Its easy to be pessimistic for the MA in a Nina. Doesn't mean it will happen, but no reason to think there will be big storms there without an active STJ. That said (before I get killed here), I'd wait and see if the PAC is acting like a Nina in mid-late Nov...there have been years where it doesn't act like that...or sort of does, but not fully and then a -NAO tips the balance. This happened in the 60s once or twice. But its still not favorable if you were a betting man. Thankfully the weather doesn't care and will do what it wants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 That said (before I get killed here), I'd wait and see if the PAC is acting like a Nina in mid-late Nov...there have been years where it doesn't act like that...or sort of does, but not fully and then a -NAO tips the balance. This happened in the 60s once or twice. But its still not favorable if you were a betting man. Thankfully the weather doesn't care and will do what it wants. it's OK, I'm still riding the -QBO until or unless it looks to stall, which we'll have a better handle on come the NOV number Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 19, 2011 Author Share Posted October 19, 2011 We will have a moderate nino that sucks and a moderate Nina that's decent at some point in our lives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 We will have a moderate nino that sucks (94/94 & 06/07) and a moderate Nina (64/65, and barely decent at that) that's decent at some point in our lives we already have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 We will have a moderate nino that sucks and a moderate Nina that's decent at some point in our lives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Northern Hemisphere snowcover has increased rapidly in the last few days. If we're going to get some AO/NAO help in the face of a moderate Nina, then the snowcover will go some ways to getting us there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Northern Hemisphere snowcover has increased rapidly in the last few days. If we're going to get some AO/NAO help in the face of a moderate Nina, then the snowcover will go some ways to getting us there. That only means that it will be even colder while it is dry. We are gonna need a storm or 2 in Dec to hit climo IMO. I fear a cold/dry Jan and one good snow in early Feb before the switch flips. It's such a crap chute in the MA. That 12 week window is quick. It burns me when we get favorable PNA/AO/NAO in November or in late March. A whole lotta "if this pattern only happened in _____" posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 I think it wil be stormy in late december to mid January, but I do believe winter comes back in late February till mid March...Ninas usually do the only question is will it be too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 The doom and gloom of La Nina not a concern for those WEST of IAD and up and down I-81. Those areas will have ABOVE AVERAGE SNOW THIS WINTER. I-95 and points South and East prepare for bridge jumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 The doom and gloom of La Nina not a concern for those WEST of IAD and up and down I-81. Those areas will have ABOVE AVERAGE SNOW THIS WINTER. I-95 and points South and East prepare for bridge jumping. I don't think many of us have a doom and gloom outluck. This winter will be active enough and will likely be much better than some of our more recent crappy winters since 2000. I do believe that near climo snow at the 3 airports is much more likely than much above or much below. Personally, I believe a string of nickle and dimers with an active NS and 1 good phaser is a realistic outlook. Heck, any digging 500mb NS vort has the potential for a widespread 3-6" event for the MA when the EC trough is in place. It doesn't even need to pick up a lot of gulf moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 The doom and gloom of La Nina not a concern for those WEST of IAD and up and down I-81. Those areas will have ABOVE AVERAGE SNOW THIS WINTER. I-95 and points South and East prepare for bridge jumping. Because we''re going to see a bunch of coastals riding a bit too close to the coast for the S&E crew's liking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 That only means that it will be even colder while it is dry. We are gonna need a storm or 2 in Dec to hit climo IMO. I fear a cold/dry Jan and one good snow in early Feb before the switch flips. It's such a crap chute in the MA. That 12 week window is quick. It burns me when we get favorable PNA/AO/NAO in November or in late March. A whole lotta "if this pattern only happened in _____" posts Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 The doom and gloom of La Nina not a concern for those WEST of IAD and up and down I-81. Those areas will have ABOVE AVERAGE SNOW THIS WINTER. I-95 and points South and East prepare for bridge jumping. I'm all for it, and I've seen you post this several times. But, if you are to be taken seriously, you need to post some of the WHY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 I'm all for it, and I've seen you post this several times. But, if you are to be taken seriously, you need to post some of the WHY. The WHY is complicated and it seems only those with a PRO MET tag are considered legit. So I find a clear simple prediction should be made. It is easily verified at the end of the 2011-2012 winter season. I would expect FREDERICK COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS (VA) to use all of their snow days and them some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 The doom and gloom of La Nina not a concern for those WEST of IAD and up and down I-81. Those areas will have ABOVE AVERAGE SNOW THIS WINTER. I-95 and points South and East prepare for bridge jumping. The WHY is complicated and it seems only those with a PRO MET tag are considered legit. So I find a clear simple prediction should be made. It is easily verified at the end of the 2011-2012 winter season. I would expect FREDERICK COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS (VA) to use all of their snow days and them some. DT is that you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 The WHY is complicated and it seems only those with a PRO MET tag are considered legit. So I find a clear simple prediction should be made. It is easily verified at the end of the 2011-2012 winter season. I would expect FREDERICK COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS (VA) to use all of their snow days and them some. I am not sure why you are making such a big deal over what is just another made-up weenie guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 DT is that you? DT is a pro met you dummy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 the problem with this thread is that it was started in June I'm tired of waitin' for winter already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 DT is a pro met you dummy. I know... whats your point? You're not suggesting he'd return through his old account? Based on the posting style/caps lock/typos/etc I don't see how that can't be DT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 I know... whats your point? You're not suggesting he'd return through his old account? Based on the posting style/caps lock/typos/etc I don't see how that can't be DT. It isnt DT, I can guarantee you that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 I know... whats your point? You're not suggesting he'd return through his old account? Based on the posting style/caps lock/typos/etc I don't see how that can't be DT. He sounds nothing like DT. Don't you have some wind obs to make up or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 The WHY is complicated and it seems only those with a PRO MET tag are considered legit. So I find a clear simple prediction should be made. It is easily verified at the end of the 2011-2012 winter season. I would expect FREDERICK COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS (VA) to use all of their snow days and them some. I'm praying that you're proven right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 the problem with this thread is that it was started in June I'm tired of waitin' for winter already You're already on the hook, bud. You promised a big winter about a week ago. I'm holding you to it. I hope you're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 He sounds nothing like DT. Don't you have some wind obs to make up or something? ur a meanie! u hurt bb's feelings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 You're already on the hook, bud. You promised a big winter about a week ago. I'm holding you to it. I hope you're right. you have to stop believing everything you read Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Nationally, 1999-00 was the most atypical winter (for a winter following a first year Nina) of the bunch. I understand you are more concerned with the DC area, but that's the reason I singled that winter out. 1999-00 had the third coldest 30 day period of all the la nina winters...1970-71 had the coldest and 1962-63 the second coldest...1999-00 was quite mild before and after the cold spell while the other years had a longer cold period...62-63 was cold throughout... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 DT is a pro met you dummy. I'm also pretty sure that DT would never talk about the number of snow days in Frederick, MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 I'm also pretty sure that DT would never talk about the number of snow days in Frederick, MD. Technically the poster was talking about Frederick county , VA, not the town of Frederick, Md, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Justin Berk posted his forecast this morning... My Winter Outlook Preview: The National Weather Service will have their Seasonal Forecast later this morning. I am writing mine up, but it is lengthy with more detail... I'll share that when it is ready... but here are the highlights. Let me know you read this with a comment or 'Like'- even if you don't :-) COLD EARLY, Mild Mid Winter... Delayed Spring SNOW Near or slightly above normal. Note: 7 ...of the past 10 years had the first main snow event on December 5th. That is a worthy and unique benchmark. Atmospheric Memory: I've identified two tracks developing. At least one or two strong coastal Nor'Easters with potential for snow/ice for central MD before Christmas. That is based on the track of Irene, and the recent non-tropical storm from Florida. The other pattern like today shows Ohio Valley style stalled Lows (Lee and 3 weeks later). That keeps us on the warmer side, but in winter can be rain or ice depending on cold air sourced from the North Atlantic. La Nina: A colder pattern in the Pacific Ocean= Cold Outbreaks with more Alberta Clipper Storms. Those don't bring us a lot of snow, but fill us with arctic air when they pass. Last January was very cold with little snow. We are in a pattern of extreme heat in the summer mirrored by solid arctic outbreaks. Total Snow near to slightly above normal: NORMAL YEARS bring BWI=20", Westminster=36", Bel Air= 25", Annapolis 15" Use these numbers on the low to middle of the range I expect for your area. Eastern Shore: Sorry, but unless there is a strong coastal storm too far east for us (which is when you get more), you will be near or below normal with snow. *Any one coast storm could blow things up... but those are dependent on track for the snow/rain line. It is WAY TOO EARLY to lock that in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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