Looking ahead to Winter 2011-2012?

[mitchnick]

MA says "come on back Chuck, we've been waiting for your return"

[Kevin Druff]

I am going to enjoy bumping this thread in march after norfolk has been warm/snowless the entire winter <img src='http://208.71.34.143/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' />

Which, unfortunately for those who live there, is quite normal for Norfolk. You act as if they should expect an average temperature of 30 and 4' of snow every winter.

[Nikolai]

Which, unfortunately for those who live there, is quite normal for Norfolk. You act as if they should expect an average temperature of 30 and 4' of snow every winter.

I don't, VA Hippie apparently thinks otherwise, though.

Mitchnick: I've been in NYC every winter since '08-09, although I travel back to DC (and back to NY if I'm in DC) if a storm is affecting one city & not the other (6" or more differential!).

[Sparky]

Where's Chucks forecast?

[mitchnick]

I don't, VA Hippie apparently thinks otherwise, though.

Mitchnick: I've been in NYC every winter since '08-09, although I travel back to DC (and back to NY if I'm in DC) if a storm is affecting one city & not the other (6" or more differential!).

no, I know; I'm just paranoid

hey, that makes you a Sr., wtf are going to do with your life?

[mitchnick]

this is the string of threads from Eastern for the MA from 09/10 season

the last page in the thread is on 12/18 and gets better from there

http://www.easternus...ead/page__st__0

[SoCoWx]

I don't, VA Hippie apparently thinks otherwise, though.

Mitchnick: I've been in NYC every winter since '08-09, although I travel back to DC (and back to NY if I'm in DC) if a storm is affecting one city & not the other (6" or more differential!).

Norfolk's average winter temp. is probably around 50F (49F is what it is here) like here..there shouldn't be *too* big of a difference as I'm only about an hour, hour and a half to the west. The main differences between here and norfolk during the Winter is that its one or the other. Either we're all snow while Norfolk's mix or rain...or the system is more OTS and Norfolk gets snow while its just clouds here.

I'm not saying it snows a lot here at all. It snows very little compared to other locations north and west of the HR area.

If I recall correctly, Norfolks avg. snowfall is 7" while here in Courtland it's right around 10". Of course, its always possible those have been skewed by unusually snowy winters.

My point is that yes, Nina's are usually horrible for this area. However, early on last year I stated in the Autumn on other forums that something didn't seem right about the Nina..that it didn't seem to be behaving normally. And this one isn't behaving normally either. It's not a copy of its predecessor but it has some similarities. So while we certainly won't see the cold and snow we saw last Winter, I'm not ruling out a cold, active front-loaded Winter again. If the front-loaded idea verifies, then I think come January it ends abruptly. Again.

[mitchnick]

Norfolk's average winter temp. is probably around 50F (49F is what it is here) like here..there shouldn't be *too* big of a difference as I'm only about an hour, hour and a half to the west. The main differences between here and norfolk during the Winter is that its one or the other. Either we're all snow while Norfolk's mix or rain...or the system is more OTS and Norfolk gets snow while its just clouds here.

I'm not saying it snows a lot here at all. It snows very little compared to other locations north and west of the HR area.

If I recall correctly, Norfolks avg. snowfall is 7" while here in Courtland it's right around 10". Of course, its always possible those have been skewed by unusually snowy winters.

My point is that yes, Nina's are usually horrible for this area. However, early on last year I stated in the Autumn on other forums that something didn't seem right about the Nina..that it didn't seem to be behaving normally. And this one isn't behaving normally either. It's not a copy of its predecessor but it has some similarities. So while we certainly won't see the cold and snow we saw last Winter, I'm not ruling out a cold, active front-loaded Winter again. If the front-loaded idea verifies, then I think come January it ends abruptly. Again.

if memory serves, which is not always the case at my age, frequently in NINA's there's at least one surpressed storm that hits southern VA/northern NC in NINA's and misses DCA/BWI completely so I wouldn't say you folks won't at least reach close to average this year

[Bob Chill]

My point is that yes, Nina's are usually horrible for this area. However, early on last year I stated in the Autumn on other forums that something didn't seem right about the Nina..that it didn't seem to be behaving normally. And this one isn't behaving normally either. It's not a copy of its predecessor but it has some similarities. So while we certainly won't see the cold and snow we saw last Winter, I'm not ruling out a cold, active front-loaded Winter again. If the front-loaded idea verifies, then I think come January it ends abruptly. Again.

It's too early to judge how the Nina is behaving. There are reasons to say the odds are against a classic trough west / SE ridge from hell type of setup but it could happen. The persistent blocking last year was great for cold and snow for a lot of the east coast but the switch did flip in mid Feb and that is pretty much the end of winters in the MA. March snow from MD south is pretty much just bonus stuff. Never sticks around long and it's near impossible to have a string below freezing highs after the first week of March.

Blocking can only last so long. The charts show the cyclical nature of our most important indexs.

I'm not posting these for any winter type of analysis. It's a whole different game come winter but it is important to see visualize the cyclical nature.

IMO- We are going to benefit from the +PNA/-NAO/-AO combination for at least a 6 week period this winter. Could be longer or could be shorter. I don't really know. I'm hoping we start to see the NAO and AO going down during the first week or two of December. It's all going to come down to timing. If we move towards a -PNA and SE ridge setup in Dec then I'm going to be pretty bummed. Then it's the waiting game...."models show a trough in the E and -NAO and +PNA @ day 10". I think we all know that game all too well.

It is a weak to moderate Nina and that alleviates some of my concerns. I don't think the classic trough west and ridge east it going to be a deal breaker this winter. Personally, I think predicting an equal chance at both temps and precip is a pretty safe bet this year.

The other thing that I have been thinking about is that maybe we don't have a big amplified pattern this year at all. Maybe the NS dominated winter runs a more zonal flow and we have seasonal temps with cold air nearby for the balance of the winter. Who really knows? I'm just a guesser that reads lots of stuff.

[PhineasC]

DT's forecast is out and very bullish. Throws out a 95-96 analog. Cold December. Normal temps Jan/Feb with above normal precip.

[Avdave]

DT's forecast is out and very bullish. Throws out a 95-96 analog. Cold December. Normal temps Jan/Feb with above normal precip.

Who really cares about his outlook?

[Ellinwood]

Who really cares about his outlook?

As crazy as he is, DT can make legitimate points in his forecast (same could be said for JB)... I didn't really see anything wrong with his forecast, but I don't value it that high on my "important forecasts to watch" list, either.

1995-96 was my main analog, too

[PhineasC]

Who really cares about his outlook?

The same people that care about KA's forecast. I saw it and figured I'd relay the information.

[SNO]

I predict Oakland, MD and Snowshoe to have more snow than DCA this winter

[yoda]

I predict Oakland, MD and Snowshoe to have more snow than DCA this winter

I predict the sun to exist next year

[SNO]

I predict the sun to exist next year

Bold prediction considering the world is going to end in 2012

[Deck Pic]

DT's forecast is out and very bullish. Throws out a 95-96 analog. Cold December. Normal temps Jan/Feb with above normal precip.

nothwithstanding the fact that it was probably the best I-95 winter on record and thus a huge outlier when making a broad brush forecast from a couple months out, I personally don't understand it as an analog unless you don't think the PAC will be a factor or you don't weight ENSO much in picking analog years.....

[Yeoman]

Should be cold and warm with periods of precip

[mitchnick]

Should be cold and warm with periods of precip

spot on as usual Yeoman, spot on

[CoastalWx]

I posted about the euro seasonal forecasts in SNE, but it looked pretty dicey for the MA area. Verbatim it has more of a weak +NAO from DJF with 850 temps above normal here. However, I'm not so sure about the mean H5 pattern depicted in the NAO region. Of course we've had +NAO winters even in a -NAO decadal cycle, but I guess if there was a gun to my head..I'd lean more weakly negative. As usual, take them FWIW.

[Ellinwood]

I posted about the euro seasonal forecasts in SNE, but it looked pretty dicey for the MA area. Verbatim it has more of a weak +NAO from DJF with 850 temps above normal here. However, I'm not so sure about the mean H5 pattern depicted in the NAO region. Of course we've had +NAO winters even in a -NAO decadal cycle, but I guess if there was a gun to my head..I'd lean more weakly negative. As usual, take them FWIW.

Just looking at last month's Euro prediction for October... too cool throughout the northern U.S. and along the West Coast. It was also too warm in the Southeast. Some of these areas were off by a significant margin (specifically along the East Coast, which was near normal to slightly above for most).

Looking at the forecasts for a mild Dec and warm Jan/Feb, it's fairly safe to just throw the Euro stuff out of the window. It basically flips the 500mb pattern from October to November and keeps it that way throughout the winter. Highly unlikely that that will happen.

[CoastalWx]

Just looking at last month's Euro prediction for October... too cool throughout the northern U.S. and along the West Coast. It was also too warm in the Southeast. Some of these areas were off by a significant margin (specifically along the East Coast, which was near normal to slightly above for most).

Looking at the forecasts for a mild Dec and warm Jan/Feb, it's fairly safe to just throw the Euro stuff out of the window. It basically flips the 500mb pattern from October to November and keeps it that way throughout the winter. Highly unlikely that that will happen.

I usually try to look at them for trends. They forecasted a warmer winter for the MA and SE last year and we know how that worked out. However, at least they trended colder with each monthly forecast that came out from Sept on. They trended a bit warmer this time around, but like we were saying...take them fwiw. I don't have any past knowledge of these forecasts, but I know they weren't great for last winter at all. I agree they might be a little weird in the 500 pattern, but they do show a NPAC ridge which is something on our side for the winter.

[BethesdaWX]

Monthly Euro blew it last year but wasn't too bad in 2009/10. I think the problem might be the sun's impact on the blocking patterns, which isn't completely understood and can't be modeled very well in the long ranges, if at all, because the mechanism isn't really known all that well. Euro has always been Gun-ho on ENSO forcing though.

[Bob Chill]

I'm not worried about the panic button until Dec. If a stubborn +NAO and SE ridge sets up then I'll hit the button. It's sickening when the front half of winter is a waiting game. We only have a 12 week window and it goes by way to quick as it is.

[mattie g]

I'm not worried about the panic button until Dec. If a stubborn +NAO and SE ridge sets up then I'll hit the button. It's sickening when the front half of winter is a waiting game. We only have a 12 week window and it goes by way to quick as it is.

Feels like it takes forever to me, but that's because i prefer the warmth and sunshine of spring and summer. I do love snow, though. So...

Nonetheless, I'd much, much, much rather have a front-loaded winter. Not only because you know you at least got something out of it and don't have to play the waiting game, but also because I love when the warmer weather comes in early. Besides, any later-season snowfall is a bonus after a good early season. It seems like there are a decent number of calls for the cold to come in early, but not sticking around like it did last year. I can dig that. But if the NAO doesn't help us out with that Nina lurking, then even that outlook may be aggressive on the chilliness.

[SoCoWx]

Feels like it takes forever to me, but that's because i prefer the warmth and sunshine of spring and summer. I do love snow, though. So...

Nonetheless, I'd much, much, much rather have a front-loaded winter. Not only because you know you at least got something out of it and don't have to play the waiting game, but also because I love when the warmer weather comes in early. Besides, any later-season snowfall is a bonus after a good early season. It seems like there are a decent number of calls for the cold to come in early, but not sticking around like it did last year. I can dig that. But if the NAO doesn't help us out with that Nina lurking, then even that outlook may be aggressive on the chilliness.

Guess it's good that the chances are favorable then in terms of the NAO. Optimisim is also good for the soul. Not that the outlooks for a colder winter again can't be thrown off...they certainly can. Especially if the La Nina makes it to strong, although I doubt it.

[BethesdaWX]

Guess it's good that the chances are favorable then in terms of the NAO. Optimisim is also good for the soul. Not that the outlooks for a colder winter again can't be thrown off...they certainly can. Especially if the La Nina makes it to strong, although I doubt it.

you're going to torch all winter

[SoCoWx]

you're going to torch all winter

So are you.

[mitchnick]

Feels like it takes forever to me, but that's because i prefer the warmth and sunshine of spring and summer. I do love snow, though. So...

Nonetheless, I'd much, much, much rather have a front-loaded winter. Not only because you know you at least got something out of it and don't have to play the waiting game, but also because I love when the warmer weather comes in early. Besides, any later-season snowfall is a bonus after a good early season. It seems like there are a decent number of calls for the cold to come in early, but not sticking around like it did last year. I can dig that. But if the NAO doesn't help us out with that Nina lurking, then even that outlook may be aggressive on the chilliness.

pretty much agree with this, that's why 09/10 was perfect

great snow in DEC (though rainy Christmas was a little disappointing, but that's weenie nit-picking) and the last consequential snow was on 2/10 (darn shame we missed the storm the end of FEB, but there I go nit-picking again!)

when you think about it, 3/1/09 storm foretold the winter of 09/10 and the 2/25/10 foretold the winter of 10/11

I hope the cr@p we got in FEB of 2011 doesn't foretell this winter

[mattie g]

pretty much agree with this, that's why 09/10 was perfect

great snow in DEC (though rainy Christmas was a little disappointing, but that's weenie nit-picking) and the last consequential snow was on 2/10 (darn shame we missed the storm the end of FEB, but there I go nit-picking again!)

when you think about it, 3/1/09 storm foretold the winter of 09/10 and the 2/25/10 foretold the winter of 10/11

I hope the cr@p we got in FEB of 2011 doesn't foretell this winter

Let's hope you're not onto something, mitchnick!

Edit: Agree wholeheartedly on 09-10. Even if we hadn't gotten 70"+ and only got 40" or so, it was still awesome to get hit big early and then finish off on a high note. Wasn't the last frost at the end of February that year? Perfect...