Bob Chill Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 The doom and gloom of La Nina not a concern for those WEST of IAD and up and down I-81. Those areas will have ABOVE AVERAGE SNOW THIS WINTER. I-95 and points South and East prepare for bridge jumping. I don't think many of us have a doom and gloom outluck. This winter will be active enough and will likely be much better than some of our more recent crappy winters since 2000. I do believe that near climo snow at the 3 airports is much more likely than much above or much below. Personally, I believe a string of nickle and dimers with an active NS and 1 good phaser is a realistic outlook. Heck, any digging 500mb NS vort has the potential for a widespread 3-6" event for the MA when the EC trough is in place. It doesn't even need to pick up a lot of gulf moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 The doom and gloom of La Nina not a concern for those WEST of IAD and up and down I-81. Those areas will have ABOVE AVERAGE SNOW THIS WINTER. I-95 and points South and East prepare for bridge jumping. Because we''re going to see a bunch of coastals riding a bit too close to the coast for the S&E crew's liking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 That only means that it will be even colder while it is dry. We are gonna need a storm or 2 in Dec to hit climo IMO. I fear a cold/dry Jan and one good snow in early Feb before the switch flips. It's such a crap chute in the MA. That 12 week window is quick. It burns me when we get favorable PNA/AO/NAO in November or in late March. A whole lotta "if this pattern only happened in _____" posts Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 The doom and gloom of La Nina not a concern for those WEST of IAD and up and down I-81. Those areas will have ABOVE AVERAGE SNOW THIS WINTER. I-95 and points South and East prepare for bridge jumping. I'm all for it, and I've seen you post this several times. But, if you are to be taken seriously, you need to post some of the WHY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 I'm all for it, and I've seen you post this several times. But, if you are to be taken seriously, you need to post some of the WHY. The WHY is complicated and it seems only those with a PRO MET tag are considered legit. So I find a clear simple prediction should be made. It is easily verified at the end of the 2011-2012 winter season. I would expect FREDERICK COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS (VA) to use all of their snow days and them some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 The doom and gloom of La Nina not a concern for those WEST of IAD and up and down I-81. Those areas will have ABOVE AVERAGE SNOW THIS WINTER. I-95 and points South and East prepare for bridge jumping. The WHY is complicated and it seems only those with a PRO MET tag are considered legit. So I find a clear simple prediction should be made. It is easily verified at the end of the 2011-2012 winter season. I would expect FREDERICK COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS (VA) to use all of their snow days and them some. DT is that you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 The WHY is complicated and it seems only those with a PRO MET tag are considered legit. So I find a clear simple prediction should be made. It is easily verified at the end of the 2011-2012 winter season. I would expect FREDERICK COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS (VA) to use all of their snow days and them some. I am not sure why you are making such a big deal over what is just another made-up weenie guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 DT is that you? DT is a pro met you dummy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 the problem with this thread is that it was started in June I'm tired of waitin' for winter already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 DT is a pro met you dummy. I know... whats your point? You're not suggesting he'd return through his old account? Based on the posting style/caps lock/typos/etc I don't see how that can't be DT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 I know... whats your point? You're not suggesting he'd return through his old account? Based on the posting style/caps lock/typos/etc I don't see how that can't be DT. It isnt DT, I can guarantee you that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 I know... whats your point? You're not suggesting he'd return through his old account? Based on the posting style/caps lock/typos/etc I don't see how that can't be DT. He sounds nothing like DT. Don't you have some wind obs to make up or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 The WHY is complicated and it seems only those with a PRO MET tag are considered legit. So I find a clear simple prediction should be made. It is easily verified at the end of the 2011-2012 winter season. I would expect FREDERICK COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS (VA) to use all of their snow days and them some. I'm praying that you're proven right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 the problem with this thread is that it was started in June I'm tired of waitin' for winter already You're already on the hook, bud. You promised a big winter about a week ago. I'm holding you to it. I hope you're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 He sounds nothing like DT. Don't you have some wind obs to make up or something? ur a meanie! u hurt bb's feelings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 You're already on the hook, bud. You promised a big winter about a week ago. I'm holding you to it. I hope you're right. you have to stop believing everything you read Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Nationally, 1999-00 was the most atypical winter (for a winter following a first year Nina) of the bunch. I understand you are more concerned with the DC area, but that's the reason I singled that winter out. 1999-00 had the third coldest 30 day period of all the la nina winters...1970-71 had the coldest and 1962-63 the second coldest...1999-00 was quite mild before and after the cold spell while the other years had a longer cold period...62-63 was cold throughout... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 DT is a pro met you dummy. I'm also pretty sure that DT would never talk about the number of snow days in Frederick, MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 I'm also pretty sure that DT would never talk about the number of snow days in Frederick, MD. Technically the poster was talking about Frederick county , VA, not the town of Frederick, Md, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Justin Berk posted his forecast this morning... My Winter Outlook Preview: The National Weather Service will have their Seasonal Forecast later this morning. I am writing mine up, but it is lengthy with more detail... I'll share that when it is ready... but here are the highlights. Let me know you read this with a comment or 'Like'- even if you don't :-) COLD EARLY, Mild Mid Winter... Delayed Spring SNOW Near or slightly above normal. Note: 7 ...of the past 10 years had the first main snow event on December 5th. That is a worthy and unique benchmark. Atmospheric Memory: I've identified two tracks developing. At least one or two strong coastal Nor'Easters with potential for snow/ice for central MD before Christmas. That is based on the track of Irene, and the recent non-tropical storm from Florida. The other pattern like today shows Ohio Valley style stalled Lows (Lee and 3 weeks later). That keeps us on the warmer side, but in winter can be rain or ice depending on cold air sourced from the North Atlantic. La Nina: A colder pattern in the Pacific Ocean= Cold Outbreaks with more Alberta Clipper Storms. Those don't bring us a lot of snow, but fill us with arctic air when they pass. Last January was very cold with little snow. We are in a pattern of extreme heat in the summer mirrored by solid arctic outbreaks. Total Snow near to slightly above normal: NORMAL YEARS bring BWI=20", Westminster=36", Bel Air= 25", Annapolis 15" Use these numbers on the low to middle of the range I expect for your area. Eastern Shore: Sorry, but unless there is a strong coastal storm too far east for us (which is when you get more), you will be near or below normal with snow. *Any one coast storm could blow things up... but those are dependent on track for the snow/rain line. It is WAY TOO EARLY to lock that in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Berk's forecast is fairly NINA climo around here with the colder DEC, warm up then late spring interestingly, last year was different than this and unusual for a NINA in the MA (not that it meant a lot more snow than a typical NINA!) on a related topic, NINA seems to be waning a bit; probably temporary, but I'll take any hits to the NINA we can get before the New Year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Northeast and Mid-Atlantic: equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and precipitation. Winter weather for these regions is often driven not by La Niña but by the Arctic Oscillation. If enough cold air and moisture are in place, areas north of the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast could see above-average snow; http://www.noaanews....teroutlook.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 http://www.noaanews....teroutlook.html they sure went out on a limb with that forecast...equal chances for 50% of the lower 48? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 they sure went out on a limb with that forecast...equal chances for 50% of the lower 48? While conservative, there is solid reasoning behind doing what they did with their forecast. It could end up being quite the wildcard in many areas this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 The last couple of years have certainly shown folks that seasonal forecasting has a long way to go before being all that credible. Granted, we already knew that to a degree, but we've had a couple of seasons that have thrown many for a loop, most mets included, and still we are grasping for explanations as to the "whys". I know solar stuff is the bandwagon thing to blame for last winter's blocking, and there likely is something to it, but no one has yet accounted for how it works. They just run behind it because there is nothing else evident. I know that's a lot of random gibberish, but been on my mind a lot the last couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 The last couple of years have certainly shown folks that seasonal forecasting has a long way to go before being all that credible. Granted, we already knew that to a degree, but we've had a couple of seasons that have thrown many for a loop, most mets included, and still we are grasping for explanations as to the "whys". I know solar stuff is the bandwagon thing to blame for last winter's blocking, and there likely is something to it, but no one has yet accounted for how it works. They just run behind it because there is nothing else evident. I know that's a lot of random gibberish, but been on my mind a lot the last couple of weeks. I agree though I think most thought 2009-2010 would be snowy in the mid atlantic and thought there was a good chance for a KU storm or two. Last years blocking was more surprising to me even with a low solar. This year, I can totally understand the CPC equal chances across the mid Altantic area into the northeast. Most long range forecasts are educated guesses. When I make one it's a WAG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 I agree though I think most thought 2009-2010 would be snowy in the mid atlantic and thought there was a good chance for a KU storm or two. Last years blocking was more surprising to me even with a low solar. This year, I can totally understand the CPC equal chances across the mid Altantic area into the northeast. Most long range forecasts are educated guesses. When I make one it's a WAG. Yeah 09-10 doesn't really fit in as much as last winter. 09-10 made some sense (not saying I would have ever forecasted record blocking though lol, but a blocky winter wasn't a shock). Really more winter 2010-11 and this summer that flew in the face of most forecasts that were out there from the preseason (mine included, admittedly). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 i could see DC getting an event if the alaskan vortex retrogrades west and a de facto split flow develops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 we saw how we did last winter with massive blocking and no southern stream.....unless you don't think ENSO will be a factor, I don't know how you go for big snow in our region.....the whole point imo of a seasonal outlook is to broad brush with the most probabilistic solution....... There is really never any reason to go with big snow in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 20, 2011 Author Share Posted October 20, 2011 we saw how we did last winter with massive blocking and no southern stream.....unless you don't think ENSO will be a factor, I don't know how you go for big snow in our region.....the whole point imo of a seasonal outlook is to broad brush with the most probabilistic solution....... Still flukish because the south got alot of snow as did the NE including Philly. I would take my chances again on alot of blocking and no southern stream. It was an everyone but us and state college winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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