PhineasC Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 DT's forecast is out and very bullish. Throws out a 95-96 analog. Cold December. Normal temps Jan/Feb with above normal precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 DT's forecast is out and very bullish. Throws out a 95-96 analog. Cold December. Normal temps Jan/Feb with above normal precip. Who really cares about his outlook? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Who really cares about his outlook? As crazy as he is, DT can make legitimate points in his forecast (same could be said for JB)... I didn't really see anything wrong with his forecast, but I don't value it that high on my "important forecasts to watch" list, either. 1995-96 was my main analog, too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Who really cares about his outlook? The same people that care about KA's forecast. I saw it and figured I'd relay the information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 I predict Oakland, MD and Snowshoe to have more snow than DCA this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 I predict Oakland, MD and Snowshoe to have more snow than DCA this winter I predict the sun to exist next year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 I predict the sun to exist next year Bold prediction considering the world is going to end in 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Should be cold and warm with periods of precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Should be cold and warm with periods of precip spot on as usual Yeoman, spot on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 I posted about the euro seasonal forecasts in SNE, but it looked pretty dicey for the MA area. Verbatim it has more of a weak +NAO from DJF with 850 temps above normal here. However, I'm not so sure about the mean H5 pattern depicted in the NAO region. Of course we've had +NAO winters even in a -NAO decadal cycle, but I guess if there was a gun to my head..I'd lean more weakly negative. As usual, take them FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 I posted about the euro seasonal forecasts in SNE, but it looked pretty dicey for the MA area. Verbatim it has more of a weak +NAO from DJF with 850 temps above normal here. However, I'm not so sure about the mean H5 pattern depicted in the NAO region. Of course we've had +NAO winters even in a -NAO decadal cycle, but I guess if there was a gun to my head..I'd lean more weakly negative. As usual, take them FWIW. Just looking at last month's Euro prediction for October... too cool throughout the northern U.S. and along the West Coast. It was also too warm in the Southeast. Some of these areas were off by a significant margin (specifically along the East Coast, which was near normal to slightly above for most). Looking at the forecasts for a mild Dec and warm Jan/Feb, it's fairly safe to just throw the Euro stuff out of the window. It basically flips the 500mb pattern from October to November and keeps it that way throughout the winter. Highly unlikely that that will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Just looking at last month's Euro prediction for October... too cool throughout the northern U.S. and along the West Coast. It was also too warm in the Southeast. Some of these areas were off by a significant margin (specifically along the East Coast, which was near normal to slightly above for most). Looking at the forecasts for a mild Dec and warm Jan/Feb, it's fairly safe to just throw the Euro stuff out of the window. It basically flips the 500mb pattern from October to November and keeps it that way throughout the winter. Highly unlikely that that will happen. I usually try to look at them for trends. They forecasted a warmer winter for the MA and SE last year and we know how that worked out. However, at least they trended colder with each monthly forecast that came out from Sept on. They trended a bit warmer this time around, but like we were saying...take them fwiw. I don't have any past knowledge of these forecasts, but I know they weren't great for last winter at all. I agree they might be a little weird in the 500 pattern, but they do show a NPAC ridge which is something on our side for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Monthly Euro blew it last year but wasn't too bad in 2009/10. I think the problem might be the sun's impact on the blocking patterns, which isn't completely understood and can't be modeled very well in the long ranges, if at all, because the mechanism isn't really known all that well. Euro has always been Gun-ho on ENSO forcing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 I'm not worried about the panic button until Dec. If a stubborn +NAO and SE ridge sets up then I'll hit the button. It's sickening when the front half of winter is a waiting game. We only have a 12 week window and it goes by way to quick as it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 I'm not worried about the panic button until Dec. If a stubborn +NAO and SE ridge sets up then I'll hit the button. It's sickening when the front half of winter is a waiting game. We only have a 12 week window and it goes by way to quick as it is. Feels like it takes forever to me, but that's because i prefer the warmth and sunshine of spring and summer. I do love snow, though. So... Nonetheless, I'd much, much, much rather have a front-loaded winter. Not only because you know you at least got something out of it and don't have to play the waiting game, but also because I love when the warmer weather comes in early. Besides, any later-season snowfall is a bonus after a good early season. It seems like there are a decent number of calls for the cold to come in early, but not sticking around like it did last year. I can dig that. But if the NAO doesn't help us out with that Nina lurking, then even that outlook may be aggressive on the chilliness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Feels like it takes forever to me, but that's because i prefer the warmth and sunshine of spring and summer. I do love snow, though. So... Nonetheless, I'd much, much, much rather have a front-loaded winter. Not only because you know you at least got something out of it and don't have to play the waiting game, but also because I love when the warmer weather comes in early. Besides, any later-season snowfall is a bonus after a good early season. It seems like there are a decent number of calls for the cold to come in early, but not sticking around like it did last year. I can dig that. But if the NAO doesn't help us out with that Nina lurking, then even that outlook may be aggressive on the chilliness. Guess it's good that the chances are favorable then in terms of the NAO. Optimisim is also good for the soul. Not that the outlooks for a colder winter again can't be thrown off...they certainly can. Especially if the La Nina makes it to strong, although I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Guess it's good that the chances are favorable then in terms of the NAO. Optimisim is also good for the soul. Not that the outlooks for a colder winter again can't be thrown off...they certainly can. Especially if the La Nina makes it to strong, although I doubt it. you're going to torch all winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 you're going to torch all winter So are you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Feels like it takes forever to me, but that's because i prefer the warmth and sunshine of spring and summer. I do love snow, though. So... Nonetheless, I'd much, much, much rather have a front-loaded winter. Not only because you know you at least got something out of it and don't have to play the waiting game, but also because I love when the warmer weather comes in early. Besides, any later-season snowfall is a bonus after a good early season. It seems like there are a decent number of calls for the cold to come in early, but not sticking around like it did last year. I can dig that. But if the NAO doesn't help us out with that Nina lurking, then even that outlook may be aggressive on the chilliness. pretty much agree with this, that's why 09/10 was perfect great snow in DEC (though rainy Christmas was a little disappointing, but that's weenie nit-picking) and the last consequential snow was on 2/10 (darn shame we missed the storm the end of FEB, but there I go nit-picking again!) when you think about it, 3/1/09 storm foretold the winter of 09/10 and the 2/25/10 foretold the winter of 10/11 I hope the cr@p we got in FEB of 2011 doesn't foretell this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 pretty much agree with this, that's why 09/10 was perfect great snow in DEC (though rainy Christmas was a little disappointing, but that's weenie nit-picking) and the last consequential snow was on 2/10 (darn shame we missed the storm the end of FEB, but there I go nit-picking again!) when you think about it, 3/1/09 storm foretold the winter of 09/10 and the 2/25/10 foretold the winter of 10/11 I hope the cr@p we got in FEB of 2011 doesn't foretell this winter Let's hope you're not onto something, mitchnick! Edit: Agree wholeheartedly on 09-10. Even if we hadn't gotten 70"+ and only got 40" or so, it was still awesome to get hit big early and then finish off on a high note. Wasn't the last frost at the end of February that year? Perfect... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 pretty much agree with this, that's why 09/10 was perfect great snow in DEC (though rainy Christmas was a little disappointing, but that's weenie nit-picking) and the last consequential snow was on 2/10 (darn shame we missed the storm the end of FEB, but there I go nit-picking again!) when you think about it, 3/1/09 storm foretold the winter of 09/10 and the 2/25/10 foretold the winter of 10/11 I hope the cr@p we got in FEB of 2011 doesn't foretell this winter Potent El Nino is great for you guys provided there is blocking. Every single time that happens, the DC/BWI area cleans up. La Nina is bad for you. Its easy to be pessimistic for the MA in a Nina. Doesn't mean it will happen, but no reason to think there will be big storms there without an active STJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Potent El Nino is great for you guys provided there is blocking. Every single time that happens, the DC/BWI area cleans up. La Nina is bad for you. Its easy to be pessimistic for the MA in a Nina. Doesn't mean it will happen, but no reason to think there will be big storms there without an active STJ. That said (before I get killed here), I'd wait and see if the PAC is acting like a Nina in mid-late Nov...there have been years where it doesn't act like that...or sort of does, but not fully and then a -NAO tips the balance. This happened in the 60s once or twice. But its still not favorable if you were a betting man. Thankfully the weather doesn't care and will do what it wants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 That said (before I get killed here), I'd wait and see if the PAC is acting like a Nina in mid-late Nov...there have been years where it doesn't act like that...or sort of does, but not fully and then a -NAO tips the balance. This happened in the 60s once or twice. But its still not favorable if you were a betting man. Thankfully the weather doesn't care and will do what it wants. it's OK, I'm still riding the -QBO until or unless it looks to stall, which we'll have a better handle on come the NOV number Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 19, 2011 Author Share Posted October 19, 2011 We will have a moderate nino that sucks and a moderate Nina that's decent at some point in our lives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 We will have a moderate nino that sucks (94/94 & 06/07) and a moderate Nina (64/65, and barely decent at that) that's decent at some point in our lives we already have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 We will have a moderate nino that sucks and a moderate Nina that's decent at some point in our lives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Northern Hemisphere snowcover has increased rapidly in the last few days. If we're going to get some AO/NAO help in the face of a moderate Nina, then the snowcover will go some ways to getting us there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Northern Hemisphere snowcover has increased rapidly in the last few days. If we're going to get some AO/NAO help in the face of a moderate Nina, then the snowcover will go some ways to getting us there. That only means that it will be even colder while it is dry. We are gonna need a storm or 2 in Dec to hit climo IMO. I fear a cold/dry Jan and one good snow in early Feb before the switch flips. It's such a crap chute in the MA. That 12 week window is quick. It burns me when we get favorable PNA/AO/NAO in November or in late March. A whole lotta "if this pattern only happened in _____" posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 I think it wil be stormy in late december to mid January, but I do believe winter comes back in late February till mid March...Ninas usually do the only question is will it be too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 The doom and gloom of La Nina not a concern for those WEST of IAD and up and down I-81. Those areas will have ABOVE AVERAGE SNOW THIS WINTER. I-95 and points South and East prepare for bridge jumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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