ORH_wxman Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 I agree about the 850 low and if I had only one level to look at, that would be the level. you need the low to track south of you, usually by 90 nm or so to get in the jackpot. Otherwise you end up in the dry slot. The trouble with most nina years is that the 850 low ends up to the north and the models end up forecasting too much QPF in the place where the dry slot should be as the winds south of the 850 low turn westerly and shut off the precip over teh dc area. Newbe's often get disappointed. This winter will be interesting as the solar factor, qbo cycle and decadel (sp?) cycle argue for there being a decent period with a negative nao. The la nina argues for the northern stream being the dominant sream unless the la nina is pretty weak. Right now, I'm guessing that it will be on the low end of moderate but that's a wag. At any rate, Matt's argument about sucky winters and how many bad ones there typically are compared to good ones is valid unless the pdo cycle gets us intp period like the late 1950 into the 1960s. My WAG is that we do better for snow in DC than last year but admit it's a guess. Last year I wasn't as optimistic as some which worked well for DC. There seems to be a better understanding of the role that ENSO plays in the STJ and polar jets in the past decade or so compared to earlier when these things weren't really considered as much from a long range perspective. Of course, long range forecasting is the frontier of meteorology and is always evolving. But I think the more optimistic tone prior to the 2009-2010 for the DC area because of the STJ influence and the more pessimistic tone before last winter worked out well and seems like something that probably would not have been as widely analyzed 10 years ago. You still have to get the cold in an El Nino to make it work, but if you get the cold, then its almost always great for DC. Those northern stream dominated winters seem to have the problem with too many clipper system to the north or OH Valley systems redeveloping to the northeast off the coast. The more neutral years are still really tough to figure out...as if the others weren't hard enough already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Focusing strictly in the DJF period for the DC-Baltimore area, I think this year that most of the snow will come in 1 big storm. So while I think there will be some "fluke" snow in November and December is kinda chilly, the key times to watch will be near or just after New Years and again from 1/20 through 2/10. Probably the rest of February will grow warm. There is strong indication that 1 storm may bring the season's total to a lot of the DC area and Baltimore may see 1 big snow with a few other events, too. Thought I would throw the DC crew a forecast because what the hell...we know it's for fun. March, as usual, will be another fail in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 6, 2011 Author Share Posted October 6, 2011 March hasnt been good since the great blizzard of 2001. Hm...sounds like a repeat of last winter with one big storm(jan 27) and alot of fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 March hasnt been good since the great blizzard of 2001. Hm...sounds like a repeat of last winter with one big storm(jan 27) and alot of fail I remember march 01, I was supposed to get 30+, I wound up with only 8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 6, 2011 Author Share Posted October 6, 2011 i can't believe you are not going nuts over the 95/96 analog from DT I trust DT with my winter forecast like you trust Marcus Adams with your money Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 We might see another Neg A O winter coming up...Since 1950 Aug. 2011 has the third lowest AO index...all the analogs below had a lower AO value in the winter months..... year...Aug.AO index...Winters low value 1977.....-1.412.....-3.014 Feb... 1964.....-1.207.....-2.084 Feb... 2011.....-1.063.....-??? 1960.....-1.008.....-1.506 Jan... 1950.....-0.851.....-1.928 Dec... 1987.....-0.836.....-1.066 Feb... 1986.....-0.826.....-1.473 Feb... years with at least one month with an AO index -2.000 or lower... 1955-56 1956-57 1957-58 1958-59 1959-60 five straight years 1962-63 1964-65 1965-66 eight of eleven years 1967-68 1968-69 1969-70 three straight years 1976-77 1977-78 1978-79 1979-80 four straight years 1983-84 1984-85 1985-86 three straight years 1995-96 1997-98 2000-01 2009-10 2010-11 two years it looks like we could have a third straight winter with at least one month with an AO -2.000...It worked wonders the last two years but not so good for some other years...almost every time there were two straight years at least one more followed...1976-77 and 2009-10 had Dec/Jan/Feb all below -2.000...There was only three winters between 1986 and 2001 with a monthly ao index lower than -2.000...Are we in a downward cycle of the AO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 years with at least one month with an AO index -2.000 or lower... 1955-56 1956-57 1957-58 1958-59 1959-60 five straight years 1962-63 1964-65 1965-66 eight of eleven years 1967-68 1968-69 1969-70 three straight years 1976-77 1977-78 1978-79 1979-80 four straight years 1983-84 1984-85 1985-86 three straight years 1995-96 1997-98 2000-01 2009-10 2010-11 two years it looks like we could have a third straight winter with at least one month with an AO -2.000...It worked wonders the last two years but not so good for some other years...almost every time there were two straight years at least one more followed...1976-77 and 2009-10 had Dec/Jan/Feb all below -2.000...There was only three winters between 1986 and 2001 with a monthly ao index lower than -2.000...Are we in a downward cycle of the AO? nice work uncle, and I hope so to answer your question I wonder how much, if any, that 2009 volcano in Iceland had to do with the bottoming AO I sure would like to see another one in my selfish greed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Focusing strictly in the DJF period for the DC-Baltimore area, I think this year that most of the snow will come in 1 big storm. So while I think there will be some "fluke" snow in November and December is kinda chilly, the key times to watch will be near or just after New Years and again from 1/20 through 2/10. Probably the rest of February will grow warm. There is strong indication that 1 storm may bring the season's total to a lot of the DC area and Baltimore may see 1 big snow with a few other events, too. Thought I would throw the DC crew a forecast because what the hell...we know it's for fun. March, as usual, will be another fail in this area. sounds like a strong signal for at least one decent storm HM that and the chance that the smaller events would end up being mod keeps me content at this point thanks for the good news all things considered (and I don't mean that sarcastically at all...you still Da' Man!)) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 nice work uncle, and I hope so to answer your question I wonder how much, if any, that 2009 volcano in Iceland had to do with the bottoming AO I sure would like to see another one in my selfish greed! Isn't there one that is erupting now? I think the name of it is Katla. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Isn't there one that is erupting now? I think the name of it is Katla. idk I think they always have something going on, but in the summer of 2009 the one that erupted stopped air traffic to Europe I'm looking for real destruction if that's what it takes to get blocking this winter like 09/10 back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 idk I think they always have something going on, but in the summer of 2009 the one that erupted stopped air traffic to Europe I'm looking for real destruction if that's what it takes to get blocking this winter like 09/10 back! We had extreme blocking last year too for the first half of winter...the blocking in Dec 2010 was actually more extreme than any of the blocking in '09-'10 at its high point. I'm not sure how much the volcano had anything to do with 2009-2010. More people are speculating the unprecented low solar activity may be more responsible for the recent blocking, which really started about a year before 2009-2010 winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 idk I think they always have something going on, but in the summer of 2009 the one that erupted stopped air traffic to Europe I'm looking for real destruction if that's what it takes to get blocking this winter like 09/10 back! I read somewhere that there has been a swarm of new earthquakes in that area, it is already melting the ice in that area, I dont think that it had erupted during either 2009 or 2010, but the last time it did I think was back in 1917. I am sorry that I do not remember the name if the sourse that u had read it in, because if I did, I would have posted it on here, you guys could have given me some sort of an idea on how accurate they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Here is the link, I am not sure how accurate it is: http://www.clickgreen.org.uk/news/international-news/122604-earthquake-swarm-after-officials-confirm-eruption-at-iceland-volcano-katla.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 I have seen that most people here seem to despise Ruggie (why I'm not quite sure) but FWIW... http://ruggieweather.blogspot.com/2011/10/my-2011-2012-winter-forecast.html That's his official forecast. Seems okay to me, quite informative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 We had extreme blocking last year too for the first half of winter...the blocking in Dec 2010 was actually more extreme than any of the blocking in '09-'10 at its high point. I'm not sure how much the volcano had anything to do with 2009-2010. More people are speculating the unprecented low solar activity may be more responsible for the recent blocking, which really started about a year before 2009-2010 winter. And really, the blocking regime started to show up in 2008-09, though not nearly as intense as the following two winters of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 I have seen that most people here seem to despise Ruggie (why I'm not quite sure) but FWIW... http://ruggieweather...r-forecast.html That's his official forecast. Seems okay to me, quite informative. His reasoning is quite superficial in my opinion. I have never really been aware of his methodology or how he is referred to here for that matter, but if he is despised I can see a potential reason why that might be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 I'm carefull when using 1950's and early 60's analogs for precipitation forecasts...NYC was very dry during that period and wet now...Here are the winter precipitation maps from the mid 50's to 60's and the last twelve winters... Starting the dataset in the in the late 1990's is a mistake in my Opinion, the true cold phase didn't get going until late in the 2000's, maybe 4-5 years at this point. A bit closer to the coinciding similaritiy between the two cold phases Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Starting the dataset in the in the late 1990's is a mistake in my Opinion, the true cold phase didn't get going until late in the 2000's, maybe 4-5 years at this point. A bit closer to the coinciding similaritiy between the two cold phases I used the driest period which was twelve years...So I used the last twelve to compare them with...The big change to wet came in 1971 and it's still getting wetter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted October 8, 2011 Share Posted October 8, 2011 His reasoning is quite superficial in my opinion. I have never really been aware of his methodology or how he is referred to here for that matter, but if he is despised I can see a potential reason why that might be. My only beef with people not liking him, his forecast, or similar forecast is that this year in particular people seem to have a certain quirk. Just because in their eyes, climo states we're due for a dud...many write off any forecast that doesn't torch the Mid-Atl. Yet, if a forecast is released that is a total torch or a bunch of slop and rain then everyones all buddy buddy and is all over it like it's the best forecast ever. Not at all saying you are doing this, just stating my grievances about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 8, 2011 Share Posted October 8, 2011 My only beef with people not liking him, his forecast, or similar forecast is that this year in particular people seem to have a certain quirk. Just because in their eyes, climo states we're due for a dud...many write off any forecast that doesn't torch the Mid-Atl. Yet, if a forecast is released that is a total torch or a bunch of slop and rain then everyones all buddy buddy and is all over it like it's the best forecast ever. Not at all saying you are doing this, just stating my grievances about this. So you're saying that we're bashing forecasters because they're forecasting a cold winter in SE VA? And anyone forecasting a warm winter down there is automatically "buddy-buddy" to the board? Rather, my take is that you refuse to even consider the reasonings why a SE ridge may be prevolent for part or most of the winter, and as a result assume that anyone in contrast to the "cold" winter idea is somehow bashing the forecast that meets your best wishes. Is it that big of a deal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted October 8, 2011 Share Posted October 8, 2011 So you're saying that we're bashing forecasters because they're forecasting a cold winter in SE VA? And anyone forecasting a warm winter down there is automatically "buddy-buddy" to the board? Rather, my take is that you refuse to even consider the reasonings why a SE ridge may be prevolent for part or most of the winter, and as a result assume that anyone in contrast to the "cold" winter idea is somehow bashing the forecast that meets your best wishes. Is it that big of a deal? That is simply not at all what I am saying. That post had nothing to do with my area. It had everything to do with the east coast in general. I consider the possibilities. I remember the setups of years like 07/08 when there was a super-ridge in place. This year is not like last year, but it's not like that Winter either. This year is honestly very unique. We have a La Nina which would argue for a torch in the east given the correct setup, however, we also have the blocking signature returning combined with an abnormally active MJO making for stormier than normal conditions. This combined with the polar vortex coming on strong once more, some of the analogues, the increasing likelihood of another -NAO/-AO year makes it seem likely that we will at least see ONE month of winter if nothing else. Do not question my motives before you decide to jump on me for my thinking, thank you and I will try to show you the same respect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 8, 2011 Share Posted October 8, 2011 That is simply not at all what I am saying. That post had nothing to do with my area. It had everything to do with the east coast in general. I consider the possibilities. I remember the setups of years like 07/08 when there was a super-ridge in place. This year is not like last year, but it's not like that Winter either. Why isn't it like 2007/08? Your reasoning below would suggest otherwise. we also have the blocking signature returning Where is this "blocking signature"? The AO/NAO are both positive right now. Not saying they'll stay that way but I don't see a "blocking signature" of any kind right now. combined with an abnormally active MJO making for stormier than normal conditions. huh? based on? Think more about what regions the MJO should focus in primarily. Not all MJO regions will favor stormy conditions in the Mid Atlantic If the MJO is strong in La Nina regions then you'd expect a La Nina pattern. This combined with the polar vortex coming on strong once more What? A strong PV would coincide with a +AO/+NAO, in a deep -AO/-NAO there is a large high pressure system over the pole. some of the analogues, the increasing likelihood of another -NAO/-AO year makes it seem likely that we will at least see ONE month of winter if nothing else. If what you say is true (Abnormally Active/Strong/Persistant MJO, a Strong PV, etc), then you can expect a SE ridge winter. Do not question my motives before you decide to jump on me for my thinking, thank you and I will try to show you the same respect. You just said yourself, in exact words, that we're automatically siding with forecasters favoring a SE ridge and ripping those forecasting a cold winter...thats exactly what you said. many write off any forecast that doesn't torch the Mid-Atl. Yet, if a forecast is released that is a total torch or a bunch of slop and rain then everyones all buddy buddy and is all over it like it's the best forecast ever. What did you mean by that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 8, 2011 Share Posted October 8, 2011 That is simply not at all what I am saying. That post had nothing to do with my area. It had everything to do with the east coast in general. I consider the possibilities. I remember the setups of years like 07/08 when there was a super-ridge in place. This year is not like last year, but it's not like that Winter either. This year is honestly very unique. We have a La Nina which would argue for a torch in the east given the correct setup, however, we also have the blocking signature returning combined with an abnormally active MJO making for stormier than normal conditions. This combined with the polar vortex coming on strong once more, some of the analogues, the increasing likelihood of another -NAO/-AO year makes it seem likely that we will at least see ONE month of winter if nothing else. Do not question my motives before you decide to jump on me for my thinking, thank you and I will try to show you the same respect. CPC does not torch the mid atlantic. They say there are equal chances as to which way the temp anomaly will fall. Zwytt's forecast is not a torch. I've stated I thought temps might be near normal for the winter as I do think we will see a period with a negative NAO plus I think early in the season we might get a little help from the Pacific before the nina really screws up the Pacific. Accuwx doesn't torch the Mid Atlantic. There are other reasons to not jump on the torch idea even though I could see some real warm periods popping up during winter as well as some pretty cold one. As for the MJO, We have a strong mjo right now but I don't think that means we'll have one all year. The MJO signal is usually more present during weak and neutral enso conditions. If the nina stays weak, the mjo probably will be fairly active. If the nina gets real strong, it may not be able to overcome the enso signal. A strong stratospheric polar vortex actually is not as favorable for getting a real strong negative AO and NAO as times when the vortex is weaker. See the Baldwin and Dunkerton article below. http://www.nwra.com/resumes/baldwin/pubs/baldwin_dunkerton_2001.pdf In my own view, this year's winter temps are a toss up but in all likelihood, the primary storm track still will be associated with the polar jet and will be directed more towards the OH valley and Great Lakes then the mid atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted October 8, 2011 Share Posted October 8, 2011 Why isn't it like 2007/08? Your reasoning below would suggest otherwise. Where is this "blocking signature"? The AO/NAO are both positive right now. Not saying they'll stay that way but I don't see a "blocking signature" of any kind right now. huh? based on? Think more about what regions the MJO should focus in primarily. Not all MJO regions will favor stormy conditions in the Mid Atlantic If the MJO is strong in La Nina regions then you'd expect a La Nina pattern. What? A strong PV would coincide with a +AO/+NAO, in a deep -AO/-NAO there is a large high pressure system over the pole. If what you say is true (Abnormally Active/Strong/Persistant MJO, a Strong PV, etc), then you can expect a SE ridge winter. You just said yourself, in exact words, that we're automatically siding with forecasters favoring a SE ridge and ripping those forecasting a cold winter...thats exactly what you said. What did you mean by that? What you say is true, however, by active MJO..I mean the MJO is going around the entire circle, through all phases rather frequently which isn't common in Nina's. I'm stating IF this continues, it will be stormy for at least a time in the east. Also, I didn't say there would be no southeast ridge at all. I do expect a quite sizeable SE ridge by late January with a weak, displaced ridge before that. I feel December will be quite cold and stormy once more. In terms of the PV being strong, yes, that is also true. I'm stating that it is building now and strengthening (which is why we have a +NAO and +AO...if that correlations true both will be negative during the Winter)..my feeling is that it will be displaced again like it was in the past two Winters making for some semblance of a -NAO/-AO pattern for at least early Winter. All of my thoughts are based on different teleconnections, trends, analogues, etc. for this Winter. This is what I feel. It is not out of bias, it is simply what I feel has a good chance at happening. I feel early Winter in the MA will be cold and active much like last year. By february there will be a SE ridge and it could very well be a "torch". I think that when all is said and done, we will end up near normal for temperatures and slightly below average with precipitation but near normal or ever so slightly above normal with snow. Many think last Winter cannot be replicated...but the fact is, in the southern MA anyway, if it wasn't for the Christmas snowstorm we would have seen only half of our avg. snowfall much like what happened in 08/09 and like it was supposed to have been. So excluding that storm where we were truly fortunate...this year could easily be like last year. And if by chance we get lucky again (not likely), then we could see a good bit of snow...but even then Im not thinking the totals of last Winter. To put all of that rant into perspective... The southern Mid-Atl, especially east of 95 saw snow totals ranging from 8-22". I would say this year we can expect more along the lines of 6-12" and spread out over nickel and dime events in December and early January rather than one big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 8, 2011 Share Posted October 8, 2011 What you say is true, however, by active MJO..I mean the MJO is going around the entire circle, through all phases rather frequently which isn't common in Nina's. Why would this be the case in winter? The MJO always goes through it's phases, we're in a strong wave right now but it doesn't mean anything directly for the wintertime state. I didn't say there would be no southeast ridge at all. I do expect a quite sizeable SE ridge by late January with a weak, displaced ridge before that. I feel December will be quite cold and stormy once more. Why do you feel this? Please help me understand, you're throwing out "feelings" without any reasoning behind them other than it is "what you feel". In terms of the PV being strong, yes, that is also true. I'm stating that it is building now and strengthening (which is why we have a +NAO and +AO...if that correlations true both will be negative during the Winter) So you're saying that you feel the progression with the very cold PV/polar-stratospheric anomalies will play out similar to what we saw in 2010/11? Because of the correlation do summer season -AO & Winter season -AO? Ok, I'd appriciate some reasoning there, but I digress. ..my feeling is that it will be displaced again like it was in the past two Winters making for some semblance of a -NAO/-AO pattern for at least early Winter. Why do you feel this? All of my thoughts are based on different teleconnections, trends, analogues, etc. for this Winter. This is what I feel. Ok, but you've never gone into detail about the reasoning behind your thoughts other than assumptions and, on occasion, qualitative correlations. Thats been my only problem with your demenaor here, I'm not going to go go out and say "Cold winter in the East because the MJO is active right now". It is not out of bias, it is simply what I feel has a good chance at happening. Never said it was out of bias, but you haven't gone into quantitative detail as of yet, rather you've used analysis that barely qualifies as "qualitative". The MJO "going around the whole circle" as you said, makes no sense to me as far as any meaning goes for winter, simply that is what the MJO usually does, aside from stronger waves which happen from time to time. Many think last Winter cannot be replicated...but the fact is, in the southern MA anyway, if it wasn't for the Christmas snowstorm we would have seen only half of our avg. snowfall much like what happened in 08/09 and like it was supposed to have been. So excluding that storm where we were truly fortunate...this year could easily be like last year. I'm not talking about snowfall, that is often random, and yes as you said there is a good chance you recieve below average snowfall this winter without that big "storm". But that isn't the argument I was making, it was your incorrect attribution of myserious "teleconnector signals" that I've never seen referenced. The southern Mid-Atl, especially east of 95 saw snow totals ranging from 8-22". I would say this year we can expect more along the lines of 6-12" and spread out over nickel and dime events in December and early January rather than one big storm. You seem to be modulating your forecast around snow potential... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 8, 2011 Share Posted October 8, 2011 An active MJO would likely mean that we see periods of favorable PNA ridging...if we see the MJO suppressed in the 2-6 phases, then the PAC will stay hostile. Very strong -NAO summers have correlated very well to -NAO winters...the reasoning is not clear, but it is what it is. Both an active MJO and a -NAO would help suppress a SE ridge on the mean for the whole winter. When both are in an unfavorable state, you'll likely see a huge SE ridge, but you could easily have some very cold periods in the SE if you get them working together in tandem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 An active MJO would likely mean that we see periods of favorable PNA ridging...if we see the MJO suppressed in the 2-6 phases, then the PAC will stay hostile. Very strong -NAO summers have correlated very well to -NAO winters...the reasoning is not clear, but it is what it is. Both an active MJO and a -NAO would help suppress a SE ridge on the mean for the whole winter. When both are in an unfavorable state, you'll likely see a huge SE ridge, but you could easily have some very cold periods in the SE if you get them working together in tandem. Do you define an active MJO as one that diverges from typical relative ENSO zones? Or simply a strong wave whether it be in the coinciding ENSO region or not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 Do you define an active MJO as one that diverges from typical relative ENSO zones? Or simply a strong wave whether it be in the coinciding ENSO region or not? I define is at being able to propagate through all or most phases. An MJO wave that is strong in phases 3-5 that always fizzles as it tries to advance does not qualify as an active MJO to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 I am going to enjoy bumping this thread in march after norfolk has been warm/snowless the entire winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 I am going to enjoy bumping this thread in march after norfolk has been warm/snowless the entire winter Nik, it's never advisable for anyone in this area to do victory laps before winter bad karma for us too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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