Looking ahead to Winter 2011-2012?

[mitchnick]

Isn't there one that is erupting now?

I think the name of it is Katla.

idk

I think they always have something going on, but in the summer of 2009 the one that erupted stopped air traffic to Europe

I'm looking for real destruction if that's what it takes to get blocking this winter like 09/10 back!

[ORH_wxman]

idk

I think they always have something going on, but in the summer of 2009 the one that erupted stopped air traffic to Europe

I'm looking for real destruction if that's what it takes to get blocking this winter like 09/10 back!

We had extreme blocking last year too for the first half of winter...the blocking in Dec 2010 was actually more extreme than any of the blocking in '09-'10 at its high point. I'm not sure how much the volcano had anything to do with 2009-2010. More people are speculating the unprecented low solar activity may be more responsible for the recent blocking, which really started about a year before 2009-2010 winter.

[NYsnowlover]

idk

I think they always have something going on, but in the summer of 2009 the one that erupted stopped air traffic to Europe

I'm looking for real destruction if that's what it takes to get blocking this winter like 09/10 back!

I read somewhere that there has been a swarm of new earthquakes in that area, it is already melting the ice in that area, I dont think that it had erupted during either 2009 or 2010, but the last time it did I think was back in 1917.

I am sorry that I do not remember the name if the sourse that u had read it in, because if I did, I would have posted it on here, you guys could have given me some sort of an idea on how accurate they are.

[NYsnowlover]

Here is the link, I am not sure how accurate it is: http://www.clickgreen.org.uk/news/international-news/122604-earthquake-swarm-after-officials-confirm-eruption-at-iceland-volcano-katla.html

[SoCoWx]

I have seen that most people here seem to despise Ruggie (why I'm not quite sure) but FWIW...

http://ruggieweather.blogspot.com/2011/10/my-2011-2012-winter-forecast.html

That's his official forecast. Seems okay to me, quite informative.

[tacoman25]

We had extreme blocking last year too for the first half of winter...the blocking in Dec 2010 was actually more extreme than any of the blocking in '09-'10 at its high point. I'm not sure how much the volcano had anything to do with 2009-2010. More people are speculating the unprecented low solar activity may be more responsible for the recent blocking, which really started about a year before 2009-2010 winter.

And really, the blocking regime started to show up in 2008-09, though not nearly as intense as the following two winters of course.

[BethesdaWX]

I have seen that most people here seem to despise Ruggie (why I'm not quite sure) but FWIW...

http://ruggieweather...r-forecast.html

That's his official forecast. Seems okay to me, quite informative.

His reasoning is quite superficial in my opinion. I have never really been aware of his methodology or how he is referred to here for that matter, but if he is despised I can see a potential reason why that might be.

[BethesdaWX]

I'm carefull when using 1950's and early 60's analogs for precipitation forecasts...NYC was very dry during that period and wet now...Here are the winter precipitation maps from the mid 50's to 60's and the last twelve winters...

Starting the dataset in the in the late 1990's is a mistake in my Opinion, the true cold phase didn't get going until late in the 2000's, maybe 4-5 years at this point.

A bit closer to the coinciding similaritiy between the two cold phases

[uncle W]

Starting the dataset in the in the late 1990's is a mistake in my Opinion, the true cold phase didn't get going until late in the 2000's, maybe 4-5 years at this point.

A bit closer to the coinciding similaritiy between the two cold phases

I used the driest period which was twelve years...So I used the last twelve to compare them with...The big change to wet came in 1971 and it's still getting wetter...

[SoCoWx]

His reasoning is quite superficial in my opinion. I have never really been aware of his methodology or how he is referred to here for that matter, but if he is despised I can see a potential reason why that might be.

My only beef with people not liking him, his forecast, or similar forecast is that this year in particular people seem to have a certain quirk. Just because in their eyes, climo states we're due for a dud...many write off any forecast that doesn't torch the Mid-Atl. Yet, if a forecast is released that is a total torch or a bunch of slop and rain then everyones all buddy buddy and is all over it like it's the best forecast ever.

Not at all saying you are doing this, just stating my grievances about this.

[BethesdaWX]

My only beef with people not liking him, his forecast, or similar forecast is that this year in particular people seem to have a certain quirk. Just because in their eyes, climo states we're due for a dud...many write off any forecast that doesn't torch the Mid-Atl. Yet, if a forecast is released that is a total torch or a bunch of slop and rain then everyones all buddy buddy and is all over it like it's the best forecast ever.

Not at all saying you are doing this, just stating my grievances about this.

So you're saying that we're bashing forecasters because they're forecasting a cold winter in SE VA? And anyone forecasting a warm winter down there is automatically "buddy-buddy" to the board?

Rather, my take is that you refuse to even consider the reasonings why a SE ridge may be prevolent for part or most of the winter, and as a result assume that anyone in contrast to the "cold" winter idea is somehow bashing the forecast that meets your best wishes. Is it that big of a deal?

[SoCoWx]

So you're saying that we're bashing forecasters because they're forecasting a cold winter in SE VA? And anyone forecasting a warm winter down there is automatically "buddy-buddy" to the board?

Rather, my take is that you refuse to even consider the reasonings why a SE ridge may be prevolent for part or most of the winter, and as a result assume that anyone in contrast to the "cold" winter idea is somehow bashing the forecast that meets your best wishes. Is it that big of a deal?

That is simply not at all what I am saying. That post had nothing to do with my area. It had everything to do with the east coast in general. I consider the possibilities. I remember the setups of years like 07/08 when there was a super-ridge in place. This year is not like last year, but it's not like that Winter either. This year is honestly very unique. We have a La Nina which would argue for a torch in the east given the correct setup, however, we also have the blocking signature returning combined with an abnormally active MJO making for stormier than normal conditions. This combined with the polar vortex coming on strong once more, some of the analogues, the increasing likelihood of another -NAO/-AO year makes it seem likely that we will at least see ONE month of winter if nothing else.

Do not question my motives before you decide to jump on me for my thinking, thank you and I will try to show you the same respect.

[BethesdaWX]

That is simply not at all what I am saying. That post had nothing to do with my area. It had everything to do with the east coast in general. I consider the possibilities. I remember the setups of years like 07/08 when there was a super-ridge in place. This year is not like last year, but it's not like that Winter either.

Why isn't it like 2007/08? Your reasoning below would suggest otherwise.

we also have the blocking signature returning

Where is this "blocking signature"? The AO/NAO are both positive right now. Not saying they'll stay that way but I don't see a "blocking signature" of any kind right now.

combined with an abnormally active MJO making for stormier than normal conditions.

huh? based on? Think more about what regions the MJO should focus in primarily. Not all MJO regions will favor stormy conditions in the Mid Atlantic If the MJO is strong in La Nina regions then you'd expect a La Nina pattern.

This combined with the polar vortex coming on strong once more

What? A strong PV would coincide with a +AO/+NAO, in a deep -AO/-NAO there is a large high pressure system over the pole.

some of the analogues, the increasing likelihood of another -NAO/-AO year makes it seem likely that we will at least see ONE month of winter if nothing else.

If what you say is true (Abnormally Active/Strong/Persistant MJO, a Strong PV, etc), then you can expect a SE ridge winter.

Do not question my motives before you decide to jump on me for my thinking, thank you and I will try to show you the same respect.

You just said yourself, in exact words, that we're automatically siding with forecasters favoring a SE ridge and ripping those forecasting a cold winter...thats exactly what you said.

many write off any forecast that doesn't torch the Mid-Atl. Yet, if a forecast is released that is a total torch or a bunch of slop and rain then everyones all buddy buddy and is all over it like it's the best forecast ever.

What did you mean by that?

[usedtobe]

That is simply not at all what I am saying. That post had nothing to do with my area. It had everything to do with the east coast in general. I consider the possibilities. I remember the setups of years like 07/08 when there was a super-ridge in place. This year is not like last year, but it's not like that Winter either. This year is honestly very unique. We have a La Nina which would argue for a torch in the east given the correct setup, however, we also have the blocking signature returning combined with an abnormally active MJO making for stormier than normal conditions. This combined with the polar vortex coming on strong once more, some of the analogues, the increasing likelihood of another -NAO/-AO year makes it seem likely that we will at least see ONE month of winter if nothing else.

Do not question my motives before you decide to jump on me for my thinking, thank you and I will try to show you the same respect.

CPC does not torch the mid atlantic. They say there are equal chances as to which way the temp anomaly will fall. Zwytt's forecast is not a torch. I've stated I thought temps might be near normal for the winter as I do think we will see a period with a negative NAO plus I think early in the season we might get a little help from the Pacific before the nina really screws up the Pacific. Accuwx doesn't torch the Mid Atlantic. There are other reasons to not jump on the torch idea even though I could see some real warm periods popping up during winter as well as some pretty cold one. As for the MJO, We have a strong mjo right now but I don't think that means we'll have one all year. The MJO signal is usually more present during weak and neutral enso conditions. If the nina stays weak, the mjo probably will be fairly active. If the nina gets real strong, it may not be able to overcome the enso signal.

A strong stratospheric polar vortex actually is not as favorable for getting a real strong negative AO and NAO as times when the vortex is weaker. See the Baldwin and Dunkerton article below.

http://www.nwra.com/resumes/baldwin/pubs/baldwin_dunkerton_2001.pdf

In my own view, this year's winter temps are a toss up but in all likelihood, the primary storm track still will be associated with the polar jet and will be directed more towards the OH valley and Great Lakes then the mid atlantic.

[SoCoWx]

Why isn't it like 2007/08? Your reasoning below would suggest otherwise.

Where is this "blocking signature"? The AO/NAO are both positive right now. Not saying they'll stay that way but I don't see a "blocking signature" of any kind right now.

huh? based on? Think more about what regions the MJO should focus in primarily. Not all MJO regions will favor stormy conditions in the Mid Atlantic If the MJO is strong in La Nina regions then you'd expect a La Nina pattern.

What? A strong PV would coincide with a +AO/+NAO, in a deep -AO/-NAO there is a large high pressure system over the pole.

If what you say is true (Abnormally Active/Strong/Persistant MJO, a Strong PV, etc), then you can expect a SE ridge winter.

You just said yourself, in exact words, that we're automatically siding with forecasters favoring a SE ridge and ripping those forecasting a cold winter...thats exactly what you said.

What did you mean by that?

What you say is true, however, by active MJO..I mean the MJO is going around the entire circle, through all phases rather frequently which isn't common in Nina's. I'm stating IF this continues, it will be stormy for at least a time in the east. Also, I didn't say there would be no southeast ridge at all. I do expect a quite sizeable SE ridge by late January with a weak, displaced ridge before that. I feel December will be quite cold and stormy once more. In terms of the PV being strong, yes, that is also true. I'm stating that it is building now and strengthening (which is why we have a +NAO and +AO...if that correlations true both will be negative during the Winter)..my feeling is that it will be displaced again like it was in the past two Winters making for some semblance of a -NAO/-AO pattern for at least early Winter.

All of my thoughts are based on different teleconnections, trends, analogues, etc. for this Winter. This is what I feel. It is not out of bias, it is simply what I feel has a good chance at happening. I feel early Winter in the MA will be cold and active much like last year. By february there will be a SE ridge and it could very well be a "torch". I think that when all is said and done, we will end up near normal for temperatures and slightly below average with precipitation but near normal or ever so slightly above normal with snow.

Many think last Winter cannot be replicated...but the fact is, in the southern MA anyway, if it wasn't for the Christmas snowstorm we would have seen only half of our avg. snowfall much like what happened in 08/09 and like it was supposed to have been. So excluding that storm where we were truly fortunate...this year could easily be like last year. And if by chance we get lucky again (not likely), then we could see a good bit of snow...but even then Im not thinking the totals of last Winter.

To put all of that rant into perspective...

The southern Mid-Atl, especially east of 95 saw snow totals ranging from 8-22". I would say this year we can expect more along the lines of 6-12" and spread out over nickel and dime events in December and early January rather than one big storm.

[BethesdaWX]

What you say is true, however, by active MJO..I mean the MJO is going around the entire circle, through all phases rather frequently which isn't common in Nina's.

Why would this be the case in winter? The MJO always goes through it's phases, we're in a strong wave right now but it doesn't mean anything directly for the wintertime state.

I didn't say there would be no southeast ridge at all. I do expect a quite sizeable SE ridge by late January with a weak, displaced ridge before that. I feel December will be quite cold and stormy once more.

Why do you feel this? Please help me understand, you're throwing out "feelings" without any reasoning behind them other than it is "what you feel".

In terms of the PV being strong, yes, that is also true. I'm stating that it is building now and strengthening (which is why we have a +NAO and +AO...if that correlations true both will be negative during the Winter)

So you're saying that you feel the progression with the very cold PV/polar-stratospheric anomalies will play out similar to what we saw in 2010/11? Because of the correlation do summer season -AO & Winter season -AO? Ok, I'd appriciate some reasoning there, but I digress.

..my feeling is that it will be displaced again like it was in the past two Winters making for some semblance of a -NAO/-AO pattern for at least early Winter.

Why do you feel this?

All of my thoughts are based on different teleconnections, trends, analogues, etc. for this Winter. This is what I feel.

Ok, but you've never gone into detail about the reasoning behind your thoughts other than assumptions and, on occasion, qualitative correlations. Thats been my only problem with your demenaor here, I'm not going to go go out and say "Cold winter in the East because the MJO is active right now".

It is not out of bias, it is simply what I feel has a good chance at happening.

Never said it was out of bias, but you haven't gone into quantitative detail as of yet, rather you've used analysis that barely qualifies as "qualitative". The MJO "going around the whole circle" as you said, makes no sense to me as far as any meaning goes for winter, simply that is what the MJO usually does, aside from stronger waves which happen from time to time.

Many think last Winter cannot be replicated...but the fact is, in the southern MA anyway, if it wasn't for the Christmas snowstorm we would have seen only half of our avg. snowfall much like what happened in 08/09 and like it was supposed to have been. So excluding that storm where we were truly fortunate...this year could easily be like last year.

I'm not talking about snowfall, that is often random, and yes as you said there is a good chance you recieve below average snowfall this winter without that big "storm". But that isn't the argument I was making, it was your incorrect attribution of myserious "teleconnector signals" that I've never seen referenced.

The southern Mid-Atl, especially east of 95 saw snow totals ranging from 8-22". I would say this year we can expect more along the lines of 6-12" and spread out over nickel and dime events in December and early January rather than one big storm.

You seem to be modulating your forecast around snow potential...

[ORH_wxman]

An active MJO would likely mean that we see periods of favorable PNA ridging...if we see the MJO suppressed in the 2-6 phases, then the PAC will stay hostile. Very strong -NAO summers have correlated very well to -NAO winters...the reasoning is not clear, but it is what it is.

Both an active MJO and a -NAO would help suppress a SE ridge on the mean for the whole winter. When both are in an unfavorable state, you'll likely see a huge SE ridge, but you could easily have some very cold periods in the SE if you get them working together in tandem.

[BethesdaWX]

An active MJO would likely mean that we see periods of favorable PNA ridging...if we see the MJO suppressed in the 2-6 phases, then the PAC will stay hostile. Very strong -NAO summers have correlated very well to -NAO winters...the reasoning is not clear, but it is what it is.

Both an active MJO and a -NAO would help suppress a SE ridge on the mean for the whole winter. When both are in an unfavorable state, you'll likely see a huge SE ridge, but you could easily have some very cold periods in the SE if you get them working together in tandem.

Do you define an active MJO as one that diverges from typical relative ENSO zones? Or simply a strong wave whether it be in the coinciding ENSO region or not?

[ORH_wxman]

Do you define an active MJO as one that diverges from typical relative ENSO zones? Or simply a strong wave whether it be in the coinciding ENSO region or not?

I define is at being able to propagate through all or most phases. An MJO wave that is strong in phases 3-5 that always fizzles as it tries to advance does not qualify as an active MJO to me.

[Nikolai]

I am going to enjoy bumping this thread in march after norfolk has been warm/snowless the entire winter

[mitchnick]

I am going to enjoy bumping this thread in march after norfolk has been warm/snowless the entire winter

Nik, it's never advisable for anyone in this area to do victory laps before winter

bad karma for us too!

[mitchnick]

MA says "come on back Chuck, we've been waiting for your return"

[Kevin Druff]

I am going to enjoy bumping this thread in march after norfolk has been warm/snowless the entire winter <img src='http://208.71.34.143/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' />

Which, unfortunately for those who live there, is quite normal for Norfolk. You act as if they should expect an average temperature of 30 and 4' of snow every winter.

[Nikolai]

Which, unfortunately for those who live there, is quite normal for Norfolk. You act as if they should expect an average temperature of 30 and 4' of snow every winter.

I don't, VA Hippie apparently thinks otherwise, though.

Mitchnick: I've been in NYC every winter since '08-09, although I travel back to DC (and back to NY if I'm in DC) if a storm is affecting one city & not the other (6" or more differential!).

[Sparky]

Where's Chucks forecast?

[mitchnick]

I don't, VA Hippie apparently thinks otherwise, though.

Mitchnick: I've been in NYC every winter since '08-09, although I travel back to DC (and back to NY if I'm in DC) if a storm is affecting one city & not the other (6" or more differential!).

no, I know; I'm just paranoid

hey, that makes you a Sr., wtf are going to do with your life?

[mitchnick]

this is the string of threads from Eastern for the MA from 09/10 season

the last page in the thread is on 12/18 and gets better from there

http://www.easternus...ead/page__st__0

[SoCoWx]

I don't, VA Hippie apparently thinks otherwise, though.

Mitchnick: I've been in NYC every winter since '08-09, although I travel back to DC (and back to NY if I'm in DC) if a storm is affecting one city & not the other (6" or more differential!).

Norfolk's average winter temp. is probably around 50F (49F is what it is here) like here..there shouldn't be *too* big of a difference as I'm only about an hour, hour and a half to the west. The main differences between here and norfolk during the Winter is that its one or the other. Either we're all snow while Norfolk's mix or rain...or the system is more OTS and Norfolk gets snow while its just clouds here.

I'm not saying it snows a lot here at all. It snows very little compared to other locations north and west of the HR area.

If I recall correctly, Norfolks avg. snowfall is 7" while here in Courtland it's right around 10". Of course, its always possible those have been skewed by unusually snowy winters.

My point is that yes, Nina's are usually horrible for this area. However, early on last year I stated in the Autumn on other forums that something didn't seem right about the Nina..that it didn't seem to be behaving normally. And this one isn't behaving normally either. It's not a copy of its predecessor but it has some similarities. So while we certainly won't see the cold and snow we saw last Winter, I'm not ruling out a cold, active front-loaded Winter again. If the front-loaded idea verifies, then I think come January it ends abruptly. Again.

[mitchnick]

Norfolk's average winter temp. is probably around 50F (49F is what it is here) like here..there shouldn't be *too* big of a difference as I'm only about an hour, hour and a half to the west. The main differences between here and norfolk during the Winter is that its one or the other. Either we're all snow while Norfolk's mix or rain...or the system is more OTS and Norfolk gets snow while its just clouds here.

I'm not saying it snows a lot here at all. It snows very little compared to other locations north and west of the HR area.

If I recall correctly, Norfolks avg. snowfall is 7" while here in Courtland it's right around 10". Of course, its always possible those have been skewed by unusually snowy winters.

My point is that yes, Nina's are usually horrible for this area. However, early on last year I stated in the Autumn on other forums that something didn't seem right about the Nina..that it didn't seem to be behaving normally. And this one isn't behaving normally either. It's not a copy of its predecessor but it has some similarities. So while we certainly won't see the cold and snow we saw last Winter, I'm not ruling out a cold, active front-loaded Winter again. If the front-loaded idea verifies, then I think come January it ends abruptly. Again.

if memory serves, which is not always the case at my age, frequently in NINA's there's at least one surpressed storm that hits southern VA/northern NC in NINA's and misses DCA/BWI completely so I wouldn't say you folks won't at least reach close to average this year

[Bob Chill]

My point is that yes, Nina's are usually horrible for this area. However, early on last year I stated in the Autumn on other forums that something didn't seem right about the Nina..that it didn't seem to be behaving normally. And this one isn't behaving normally either. It's not a copy of its predecessor but it has some similarities. So while we certainly won't see the cold and snow we saw last Winter, I'm not ruling out a cold, active front-loaded Winter again. If the front-loaded idea verifies, then I think come January it ends abruptly. Again.

It's too early to judge how the Nina is behaving. There are reasons to say the odds are against a classic trough west / SE ridge from hell type of setup but it could happen. The persistent blocking last year was great for cold and snow for a lot of the east coast but the switch did flip in mid Feb and that is pretty much the end of winters in the MA. March snow from MD south is pretty much just bonus stuff. Never sticks around long and it's near impossible to have a string below freezing highs after the first week of March.

Blocking can only last so long. The charts show the cyclical nature of our most important indexs.

I'm not posting these for any winter type of analysis. It's a whole different game come winter but it is important to see visualize the cyclical nature.

IMO- We are going to benefit from the +PNA/-NAO/-AO combination for at least a 6 week period this winter. Could be longer or could be shorter. I don't really know. I'm hoping we start to see the NAO and AO going down during the first week or two of December. It's all going to come down to timing. If we move towards a -PNA and SE ridge setup in Dec then I'm going to be pretty bummed. Then it's the waiting game...."models show a trough in the E and -NAO and +PNA @ day 10". I think we all know that game all too well.

It is a weak to moderate Nina and that alleviates some of my concerns. I don't think the classic trough west and ridge east it going to be a deal breaker this winter. Personally, I think predicting an equal chance at both temps and precip is a pretty safe bet this year.

The other thing that I have been thinking about is that maybe we don't have a big amplified pattern this year at all. Maybe the NS dominated winter runs a more zonal flow and we have seasonal temps with cold air nearby for the balance of the winter. Who really knows? I'm just a guesser that reads lots of stuff.