Looking ahead to Winter 2011-2012?

[Ellinwood]

Careful here. Weenie porn..... I kinda disagree with the look though. This implies a favored EC stormtrack and miller A's. I would say the odds are against that.

Should be 2008-09, not 2009-10.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

Checked his site as well as Stormvista (either the servers down or the site no longer exists) and have had no luck finding his Prelim forecast. You wouldn't by chance have a link to it. Thanks.

he gave a seminar last night in RIC. his forecast should be out in the next few days, and said wit his final call will be in mid november

He stole my analogs

Interesting that he decided to go with just 3 for now... it can sometimes be adequate, but when two-thirds of your data incorporates large snow years (62-63 and 95-96), you need to be either really confident in the snow forecast and/or have strong reasoning behind it (and/or be a total weenie ).

he did not show his analog years in his speech, but i asked him, and that was the first three he said

he showed alot of data on the nina/ -qbo -pdo, sst's warming up near greenland, soil moisture maps/ blended all together painted some pretty cold looking maps

[Midlo Snow Maker]

This winter is a disaster

i can't believe you are not going nuts over the 95/96 analog from DT

[Ellinwood]

he did not show his analog years in his speech, but i asked him, and that was the first three he said

he showed alot of data on the nina/ -qbo -pdo, sst's warming up near greenland, soil moisture maps/ blended all together painted some pretty cold looking maps

I see. Only questionable thing that I can see right away is using soil moisture during a winter forecast... from what I can recall, it's correlations in winter are not as strong as the summer. He seems to be the only person (of the more known forecasters, anyway) that incorporates it into his winter forecast.

[usedtobe]

kind of disagree with Steve T........in 23 consecutive winters, we have seen 3 with 40"+ and 20 with <16".......this idea of getting a big/fluke storm(s) in a "bad" winter that skews averages is not something that happens in reality......and assuming another <16" winter is in the cards, I do believe we can at least make an educated guess whether we tend toward the higher end of that range or the lower end....At some point the cycle will break and we will have a 20-25" winter at DCA again....but it will probably happen during a Nino or neutral winter (very rare these days)....for me, once you establish that it isn't going to be a potentially monster winter, you have 3 general options for DCA....12-16", 8-12" or <10".....Storms that skew averages don't happen in otherwise bad winters....you'd have to go back to 82-83 for the closest example and even in that winter there were 6" storms in Mid DEC and then again the week before the big HECS.....

I still agree with him as 23 years still is not a huge data set and in the 60s, there were lots of 20 inch plus years. Last year, we just missed a 12 inch event in Jan and weren't that far way from getting a decent now on Boxer's day. I looked at HM's negative QBO cool enso years not worrying about whether there were westerly winds lingering at 50mb or not. 9 or the 12 winters had 11.7 to 21.4 inches of snow. For that reason, right now I'd lean towards 12-16 as most likely amount this year, but one of the years did only have 4.7 so who know. Eventually we'll probably break the cycle you mention and have another decade similar to 1958-1969 period in terms of snowfall unless global warming gets in the way. Odds are, this year won't start such a cycle but we can always hope.

[uncle W]

I'm carefull when using 1950's and early 60's analogs for precipitation forecasts...NYC was very dry during that period and wet now...Here are the winter precipitation maps from the mid 50's to 60's and the last twelve winters...

[Bob Chill]

I'm carefull when using 1950's and early 60's analogs for precipitation forecasts...NYC was very dry during that period and wet now...Here are the winter precipitation maps from the mid 50's to 60's and the last twelve winters...

I with we could pull snowfall anamoly maps instead of precip maps. Precip maps don't really tell the snowfall story unless you are in the high mountain west. Every time I pull precip maps I always remind myself that DCA averages 10"+ of precipation but less than 20% of that falls as frozen. We could easilty average 2-3" below normal in precip and double our seasonal snowfall norm.

I find it too tedious to go back and pull the big cities yearly snowfall totals and line them up with my temp maps. Maybe I'm just lazy.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Good reading guys.

Every time I see 08-09 listed, I want to cover my eyes. That was my definition of a crappy winter. Cold almost all of the time from Nov. through early Feb, but almost no precip. You guys over around DC got lucky and cashed in on the early March storm, but back this way we got nada from that one. Awful, awful winter. And, as I've said before, my concern isn't the temps, its the precip. In 08-09, and last year (early), we simply couldn't get any precip. A local weather observer here has 1.35 inches as the Jan precip total last year, with 1 inch of that during the late month snow, and only two days of precip over 0.1 inches. Give me the precip and I'll take my chances with the temps.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

I see. Only questionable thing that I can see right away is using soil moisture during a winter forecast... from what I can recall, it's correlations in winter are not as strong as the summer. He seems to be the only person (of the more known forecasters, anyway) that incorporates it into his winter forecast.

he did say that this year is a rare one with the + and - so large and so close together from east to west. but he did say that the tx drought will help for a ridge in the south west and aid in a trough in the east, which has already been showing up on the models, he is also impressed by the hugh cut off lows. he posted i think a day 8 map from yesterday andyesterday's 12z has that theme. he went on to say that once the nao is neg. these 500 lows will be forced further south hence an active patternfor the mid atl.

[Ellinwood]

he did say that this year is a rare one with the + and - so large and so close together from east to west. but he did say that the tx drought will help for a ridge in the south west and aid in a trough in the east, which has already been showing up on the models, he is also impressed by the hugh cut off lows. he posted i think a day 8 map from yesterday andyesterday's 12z has that theme. he went on to say that once the nao is neg. these 500 lows will be forced further south hence an active patternfor the mid atl.

I could buy that, seeing as how anomalously dry Texas is compared to normal... I wouldn't be surprised to see the soil moisture/temp correlation be a bit more prevalent compared to an average winter.

[mitchnick]

when you consider last year's ONI was -1.4C for 3 straight months (which does not happen very often per link below)

http://www.cpc.ncep....ensoyears.shtml

with a west QBO and still managed to get the snow we got, comparing last year to this year when the NINA will definitely not be as strong as last year and we will have an east QBO, I'm having a hard time not believing we're in for N or AN snows (I know, the AO/NAO could put us in the crapper, but still blocking looks to be at least average, if not better than average)

but then I do consider myself a "Cubs fan of snowfall in the MA" every fall soooo...

[mitchnick]

with a dominant northern stream you are definitely more likely in your location than say Northern VA or IAD...

idk

didn't work out too well last year

ya' needed to be NE of Phineas to really hit pay dirt

but, I remain optimistic attm

[Ian]

if we go back to 1940 which is around when DCA became the official recording station.....86% of winters have had <25"....that is a sample size of 71 winters.....and I think it is fair to say that DCA is not the same station is was 30 or 50 or 70 years ago....it won't measure as high as it used to in most events...especially those common marginal events that are rain to snow or snow to rain or 32-34 degrees.....The artificial 16" ceiling will be broken....but I think even a 25" ceiling is too high for "normal" winters......I like the idea that 4 out 5 winters will have less than 20" of snow...

july 1945 was the official switch

[Bob Chill]

with a dominant northern stream you are definitely more likely in your location than say Northern VA or IAD...

idk

didn't work out too well last year

ya' needed to be NE of Phineas to really hit pay dirt

but, I remain optimistic attm

That was just last year though. It was a strange year in the MA no matter which way you slice it. We were just "out of favor" it seemed.

NS dominant winters as a whole put N and NE MD at an advantage. I didn't do any research to back up this statement but my memory is probably good enough to say it's probably true.

I can't stand waiting for an 850 low to the W to jump to the coast. Models always seem to overdo precip in the DC area south (they overdo precip in BWI N too but the northern areas have a much better chance at a decent event). I've seen enough of the scenarios not work out so well so I'm always a bit pessimistic leading up.

I think we have a better chance at SS interaction this year so a phaser or 2 may be what helps us break the 16" ceiling.

[CoastalWx]

That was just last year though. It was a strange year in the MA no matter which way you slice it. We were just "out of favor" it seemed.

NS dominant winters as a whole put N and NE MD at an advantage. I didn't do any research to back up this statement but my memory is probably good enough to say it's probably true.

I can't stand waiting for an 850 low to the W to jump to the coast. Models always seem to overdo precip in the DC area south (they overdo precip in BWI N too but the northern areas have a much better chance at a decent event). I've seen enough of the scenarios not work out so well so I'm always a bit pessimistic leading up.

I think we have a better chance at SS interaction this year so a phaser or 2 may be what helps us break the 16" ceiling.

You really need to look at the 850-500mb layer or so. If you want to keep it simple..look at 700mb. Models do seem to be too generous when it comes to QPF in the areas that will likely dryslot. I've also found that these dryslots tend to race in pretty quickly too. While you can get a good thump (albeit brief) with the 700 low moving overhead or just to the west..if the 850 low takes a track overhead or to the west...forget it. I feel like too many people get caught up looking at the QPF and the 850 0C line. There is more to it than that, especially if we end up with an active northern stream.

[Ian]

for snow?....I know temps were earlier

Zubrick at LWX said it all switched in 7/1945. National was operational prior but they were still pulling from the old station.

[Ian]

oh....I am pretty sure temps switched earlier (1941?)....I have monthlies on another computer to support it but maybe they are wrong

actually looking back it seems snow might be the issue. edit: i sent him a note to see if he can clarify on what the snowfall issue is.

Yes, the bottom line...before July 1, 1945, use the daily Max/Min-Temp and daily Precip (liquid) data from the downtown Washington DC "City Office" (either 24th & M, or where ever it was).

On and after July 1, 1945, use the daily Max/Min-Temp and daily Precip data from Washington National Airport (DCA).

Snowfall is another issue.

[usedtobe]

You really need to look at the 850-500mb layer or so. If you want to keep it simple..look at 700mb. Models do seem to be too generous when it comes to QPF in the areas that will likely dryslot. I've also found that these dryslots tend to race in pretty quickly too. While you can get a good thump (albeit brief) with the 700 low moving overhead or just to the west..if the 850 low takes a track overhead or to the west...forget it. I feel like too many people get caught up looking at the QPF and the 850 0C line. There is more to it than that, especially if we end up with an active northern stream.

I agree about the 850 low and if I had only one level to look at, that would be the level. you need the low to track south of you, usually by 90 nm or so to get in the jackpot. Otherwise you end up in the dry slot. The trouble with most nina years is that the 850 low ends up to the north and the models end up forecasting too much QPF in the place where the dry slot should be as the winds south of the 850 low turn westerly and shut off the precip over teh dc area. Newbe's often get disappointed.

This winter will be interesting as the solar factor, qbo cycle and decadel (sp?) cycle argue for there being a decent period with a negative nao. The la nina argues for the northern stream being the dominant sream unless the la nina is pretty weak. Right now, I'm guessing that it will be on the low end of moderate but that's a wag. At any rate, Matt's argument about sucky winters and how many bad ones there typically are compared to good ones is valid unless the pdo cycle gets us intp period like the late 1950 into the 1960s. My WAG is that we do better for snow in DC than last year but admit it's a guess. Last year I wasn't as optimistic as some which worked well for DC.

[mitchnick]

You really need to look at the 850-500mb layer or so. If you want to keep it simple..look at 700mb. Models do seem to be too generous when it comes to QPF in the areas that will likely dryslot. I've also found that these dryslots tend to race in pretty quickly too. While you can get a good thump (albeit brief) with the 700 low moving overhead or just to the west..if the 850 low takes a track overhead or to the west...forget it. I feel like too many people get caught up looking at the QPF and the 850 0C line. There is more to it than that, especially if we end up with an active northern stream.

1/05 bliz was the quintessential example of this around here

How dismal it was reading HM's post in the Eastern storm thread early that Sat morning when it was apparent BWI would be in the dry slot....woe is me

[Bob Chill]

You really need to look at the 850-500mb layer or so. If you want to keep it simple..look at 700mb. Models do seem to be too generous when it comes to QPF in the areas that will likely dryslot. I've also found that these dryslots tend to race in pretty quickly too. While you can get a good thump (albeit brief) with the 700 low moving overhead or just to the west..if the 850 low takes a track overhead or to the west...forget it. I feel like too many people get caught up looking at the QPF and the 850 0C line. There is more to it than that, especially if we end up with an active northern stream.

Thank you for popping in and adding this. I've gotten MUCH better at looking at 500,700, and 850 layers. Eastern really helped me learn about this. I don't really blame models for the dissappointments. It's a very complicated process when the 850 is driving up into the OH valley and then "forecast" to reform off the coast of MD/VA. A little variance in track can = a huge variance in the outcome. We always seem to be in the nail biting transition zone. NJ on northward doesn't have to worry nearly as much.

It does look like it will be another NS dominated winter. With the exception of Nino's we usually always have to deal with NS systems and their inherent problems of causing significant snows south of 40. If we can get the blocking and EC trough to set up just a bit more favorably this year, an active NS could potentially = a satifying winter in these parts. Many close calls with phasing last year too. The ss vorts were just missing the dance with the ns vorts.

The 500 ull on steroids last year aka psu hoffman storm was pretty awesome. Dynamic systems are way fun to experience. That storm delivered a full buffet of weather here. Too bad I was stuck in bed with a 103 flu induced fever. Lost power and house got down to the mid 30's. I thought I was being punished for my past transgressions. lol

[CoastalWx]

Thank you for popping in and adding this. I've gotten MUCH better at looking at 500,700, and 850 layers. Eastern really helped me learn about this. I don't really blame models for the dissappointments. It's a very complicated process when the 850 is driving up into the OH valley and then "forecast" to reform off the coast of MD/VA. A little variance in track can = a huge variance in the outcome. We always seem to be in the nail biting transition zone. NJ on northward doesn't have to worry nearly as much.

It does look like it will be another NS dominated winter. With the exception of Nino's we usually always have to deal with NS systems and their inherent problems of causing significant snows south of 40. If we can get the blocking and EC trough to set up just a bit more favorably this year, an active NS could potentially = a satifying winter in these parts. Many close calls with phasing last year too. The ss vorts were just missing the dance with the ns vorts.

The 500 ull on steroids last year aka psu hoffman storm was pretty awesome. Dynamic systems are way fun to experience. That storm delivered a full buffet of weather here. Too bad I was stuck in bed with a 103 flu induced fever. Lost power and house got down to the mid 30's. I thought I was being punished for my past transgressions. lol

As usual, it will come down to blocking for you guys. Last year in some ways, was similar to how we in SNE got screwed the year before. You guys just missed a couple of good storms..well most especially 12/26 by such a small margin. You almost have to throw your hands up and laugh, as we did the year before. At least you got the ULL from hell. That was a beast in itself, in that it was mostly convective type precip and little in the way of WAA it seeemed.

[ORH_wxman]

I agree about the 850 low and if I had only one level to look at, that would be the level. you need the low to track south of you, usually by 90 nm or so to get in the jackpot. Otherwise you end up in the dry slot. The trouble with most nina years is that the 850 low ends up to the north and the models end up forecasting too much QPF in the place where the dry slot should be as the winds south of the 850 low turn westerly and shut off the precip over teh dc area. Newbe's often get disappointed.

This winter will be interesting as the solar factor, qbo cycle and decadel (sp?) cycle argue for there being a decent period with a negative nao. The la nina argues for the northern stream being the dominant sream unless the la nina is pretty weak. Right now, I'm guessing that it will be on the low end of moderate but that's a wag. At any rate, Matt's argument about sucky winters and how many bad ones there typically are compared to good ones is valid unless the pdo cycle gets us intp period like the late 1950 into the 1960s. My WAG is that we do better for snow in DC than last year but admit it's a guess. Last year I wasn't as optimistic as some which worked well for DC.

There seems to be a better understanding of the role that ENSO plays in the STJ and polar jets in the past decade or so compared to earlier when these things weren't really considered as much from a long range perspective. Of course, long range forecasting is the frontier of meteorology and is always evolving.

But I think the more optimistic tone prior to the 2009-2010 for the DC area because of the STJ influence and the more pessimistic tone before last winter worked out well and seems like something that probably would not have been as widely analyzed 10 years ago. You still have to get the cold in an El Nino to make it work, but if you get the cold, then its almost always great for DC.

Those northern stream dominated winters seem to have the problem with too many clipper system to the north or OH Valley systems redeveloping to the northeast off the coast. The more neutral years are still really tough to figure out...as if the others weren't hard enough already.

[HM]

Focusing strictly in the DJF period for the DC-Baltimore area, I think this year that most of the snow will come in 1 big storm.

So while I think there will be some "fluke" snow in November and December is kinda chilly, the key times to watch will be near or just after New Years and again from 1/20 through 2/10. Probably the rest of February will grow warm.

There is strong indication that 1 storm may bring the season's total to a lot of the DC area and Baltimore may see 1 big snow with a few other events, too.

Thought I would throw the DC crew a forecast because what the hell...we know it's for fun.

March, as usual, will be another fail in this area.

[Ji]

March hasnt been good since the great blizzard of 2001. Hm...sounds like a repeat of last winter with one big storm(jan 27) and alot of fail

[NYsnowlover]

March hasnt been good since the great blizzard of 2001. Hm...sounds like a repeat of last winter with one big storm(jan 27) and alot of fail

I remember march 01, I was supposed to get 30+, I wound up with only 8"

[Ji]

i can't believe you are not going nuts over the 95/96 analog from DT

I trust DT with my winter forecast like you trust Marcus Adams with your money

[uncle W]

We might see another Neg A O winter coming up...Since 1950 Aug. 2011 has the third lowest AO index...all the analogs below had a lower AO value in the winter months.....

year...Aug.AO index...Winters low value

1977.....-1.412.....-3.014 Feb...

1964.....-1.207.....-2.084 Feb...

2011.....-1.063.....-???

1960.....-1.008.....-1.506 Jan...

1950.....-0.851.....-1.928 Dec...

1987.....-0.836.....-1.066 Feb...

1986.....-0.826.....-1.473 Feb...

years with at least one month with an AO index -2.000 or lower...

1955-56

1956-57

1957-58

1958-59

1959-60 five straight years

1962-63

1964-65

1965-66 eight of eleven years

1967-68

1968-69

1969-70 three straight years

1976-77

1977-78

1978-79

1979-80 four straight years

1983-84

1984-85

1985-86 three straight years

1995-96

1997-98

2000-01

2009-10

2010-11 two years

it looks like we could have a third straight winter with at least one month with an AO -2.000...It worked wonders the last two years but not so good for some other years...almost every time there were two straight years at least one more followed...1976-77 and 2009-10 had Dec/Jan/Feb all below -2.000...There was only three winters between 1986 and 2001 with a monthly ao index lower than -2.000...Are we in a downward cycle of the AO?

[mitchnick]

years with at least one month with an AO index -2.000 or lower...

1955-56

1956-57

1957-58

1958-59

1959-60 five straight years

1962-63

1964-65

1965-66 eight of eleven years

1967-68

1968-69

1969-70 three straight years

1976-77

1977-78

1978-79

1979-80 four straight years

1983-84

1984-85

1985-86 three straight years

1995-96

1997-98

2000-01

2009-10

2010-11 two years

it looks like we could have a third straight winter with at least one month with an AO -2.000...It worked wonders the last two years but not so good for some other years...almost every time there were two straight years at least one more followed...1976-77 and 2009-10 had Dec/Jan/Feb all below -2.000...There was only three winters between 1986 and 2001 with a monthly ao index lower than -2.000...Are we in a downward cycle of the AO?

nice work uncle, and I hope so to answer your question

I wonder how much, if any, that 2009 volcano in Iceland had to do with the bottoming AO

I sure would like to see another one in my selfish greed!

[mitchnick]

Focusing strictly in the DJF period for the DC-Baltimore area, I think this year that most of the snow will come in 1 big storm.

So while I think there will be some "fluke" snow in November and December is kinda chilly, the key times to watch will be near or just after New Years and again from 1/20 through 2/10. Probably the rest of February will grow warm.

There is strong indication that 1 storm may bring the season's total to a lot of the DC area and Baltimore may see 1 big snow with a few other events, too.

Thought I would throw the DC crew a forecast because what the hell...we know it's for fun.

March, as usual, will be another fail in this area.

sounds like a strong signal for at least one decent storm HM

that and the chance that the smaller events would end up being mod keeps me content at this point

thanks for the good news all things considered (and I don't mean that sarcastically at all...you still Da' Man!))

[NYsnowlover]

nice work uncle, and I hope so to answer your question

I wonder how much, if any, that 2009 volcano in Iceland had to do with the bottoming AO

I sure would like to see another one in my selfish greed!

Isn't there one that is erupting now?

I think the name of it is Katla.