Looking ahead to Winter 2011-2012?

[okie333]

In a La Nina? Explain.

1898-99.

[Bob Chill]

My comments on the CWG still hold.

Wes, I think your thoughts are pretty spot on. If it wasn't for the potential increased blocking this winter we would all be expecting a pretty lame winter overall. Last year was tough on us here in the MA. So close too many times and others right in our front and back yards did quite well.

The finer details just need to work in our favor a bit more this year and we'll be pretty happy. It's nice seeing NH snowcover building. Hopefully there will be a ton of cold air bottled up near the pole early in the season. If/when we do get a -ao/nao we can expect some pretty chilly temps.

It's definintely alot easier to long range forecast the west than the east this winter. CO ski areas are expecting another solid year and it's hard to argue against that.

[Deck Pic]

My comments on the CWG still hold. The forecast is pretty much in line with a typical La Nina-like storm track to our west. La Ninas tend to have big swings in temperatures.... This year the complication is what the NAO will do as it’s been running negative for decent chunks during the last several winters. The same will probably hold this winter as we seem to have cycled into a period with more blocking in the North Atlantic than we had in the 1990s and early part of the decade. That blocking [negative NAO] probably will give us some chances for snow even with a La Nina. But with such a strong northern stream, we still may only get fringed with storms sort of like last year. Except for the Northern Plains, I don’t think this will be an easy year for seasonal forecasters.

The accuweather long range forecast is tilted heavily towards la nina climo with some acknowledgement that the nao could also have an impact on the pattern which might change things across our region and the south. The complication due to the NAO is one reason I hesitate to make guesses about the winter this early in the game. I pretty much agree with the NWS call for equal chances as to our temperature anomalies. I also agree with Steve T.. It only takes one or two major snowstorms to really skew the winter snowfall average and forecasting those type events is beyond the capabilities of the science at such long time ranges.

kind of disagree with Steve T........in 23 consecutive winters, we have seen 3 with 40"+ and 20 with <16".......this idea of getting a big/fluke storm(s) in a "bad" winter that skews averages is not something that happens in reality......and assuming another <16" winter is in the cards, I do believe we can at least make an educated guess whether we tend toward the higher end of that range or the lower end....At some point the cycle will break and we will have a 20-25" winter at DCA again....but it will probably happen during a Nino or neutral winter (very rare these days)....for me, once you establish that it isn't going to be a potentially monster winter, you have 3 general options for DCA....12-16", 8-12" or <10".....Storms that skew averages don't happen in otherwise bad winters....you'd have to go back to 82-83 for the closest example and even in that winter there were 6" storms in Mid DEC and then again the week before the big HECS.....

[brad1551]

Who knows? I know that the GFS Is showing a big tropical rain event for next week and from what I remember this would be 3 times in 1 month of something similar that might happen next week. Something like this in the winter could be epic. 95/96 winter.

[brad1551]

Like I said who knows?

[Deck Pic]

Like I said who knows?

nobody knows, but you can make an educated guess....in 20 of the last 23 winters (87%) DCA has failed to reach 16" of snow and 2 of the 3 examples when it did we had a moderate Nino w/ a robust southern stream....that is knowledge.....

[brad1551]

nobody knows, but you can make an educated guess....in 20 of the last 23 winters (87%) DCA has failed to reach 16" of snow and 2 of the 3 examples when it did we had a moderate Nino w/ a robust southern stream....that is knowledge.....

[brad1551]

Your right that is knowledge, but anything is possible. Do you think any of the big rain makers the past 7+ weeks could play a major role in precip totals this winter.?

[NYsnowlover]

They are just covering their butts for if it busts.

Link to the AccuWx article since no one wanted to post it: http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/55890/accuweathercom-winter-20112012.asp

Nothing ground-breaking.

Kind of odd to put "stormy & cold" right next to "little if any frozen precip," but that's AccuWx for ya.

[CheesyPoofs]

Perhaps semi off-topic (or maybe not), but I guess with Howard not posting here, this is the first year since the WWBB days that he won't post KA's outlook. Yeah, a lot of KA's prestige has waned over the past few years, but it is a tradition -- the first sign that winter is around the corner.

[Deck Pic]

Perhaps semi off-topic (or maybe not), but I guess with Howard not posting here, this is the first year since the WWBB days that he won't post KA's outlook. Yeah, a lot of KA's prestige has waned over the past few years, but it is a tradition -- the first sign that winter is around the corner.

it's already been posted

[Deck Pic]

Your right that is knowledge, but anything is possible. Do you think any of the big rain makers the past 7+ weeks could play a major role in precip totals this winter.?

that is the mantra of those who are averse to knowledge....I haven't released an outlook yet, but there is very little chance we have a monster winter....I realize a lot of folks get off on wishcasting and hoping for the improbable....I don't...

[Deck Pic]

This bears repeating.....20 of the last 23 winters (87%), DCA has failed to reach 16"....in 2 of the 3 that it did, we had a moderate El Nino with a robust southern stream....in the other example, we had a very very weak Nina that came on the heels of 6 consecutive winters of a warm PAC (in the means)......anything is possible, but it is very unlikely and improbable that we have a huge winter....if you disagree, you are stupid....

[jnis]

This bears repeating.....20 of the last 23 winters (87%), DCA has failed to reach 16"....in 2 of the 3 that it did, we had a moderate El Nino with a robust southern stream....in the other example, we had a very very weak Nina that came on the heels of 6 consecutive winters of a warm PAC (in the means)......anything is possible, but it is very unlikely and improbable that we have a huge winter....if you

disagree, you are stupid....

I totally agree with you regarding DC proper. However, being a long time resident of upper MoCo, I know that the farther NW you are from DC often determines whether or not you get that one storm that makes an otherwise below average (snowfall) winter closer to the mean. I can remember quite a few storms that left DCA with little or no snow and points 15 to 20 miles NW with 4 to 8. I know you are completely aware of this as you are a local person, but I think some readers might not realize how varied the winter outcome can be in our area.

[Bob Chill]

I don't think many disagree with you zwyts. We pretty much always have all or none type winters around here and the odds are always stacked against having above normal snow (and stacked WAY against much above normal). Our averages are skewed by blockbusters. Take a couple big snows away and our averages would be pretty lame. However, the MA does get some big ones and memorable event "can" happen pretty much any winter.

Temps are usually our downfall. We usually average our normal winter precip in the 10" range for Dec-Feb. How much of that falls as snow is really tough to forecast long range. IMO- We will have some good periods of below normal temps this winter. That would at least increase the odds of normal to slightly above normal snow this winter. That's a realistic outlook for the most part.

My armchair met weenie gut is thinking 15-20" DCA and 25-30" IAD-BWI.

[mitchnick]

This bears repeating.....20 of the last 23 winters (87%), DCA has failed to reach 16"....in 2 of the 3 that it did, we had a moderate El Nino with a robust southern stream....in the other example, we had a very very weak Nina that came on the heels of 6 consecutive winters of a warm PAC (in the means)......anything is possible, but it is very unlikely and improbable that we have a huge winter....if you disagree, you are stupid....

not too surprising when one considers average is now 14.5" at DCA

fwiw, I think we could add at least 2" on the average based on incompetent obs

16.4" on 12/19/09 and 17.8" on 2/6/10 are just absurd based on every other ob from all surrounding locations

I firmly believe somebody has an agenda down there

[CheesyPoofs]

it's already been posted

Where?

Edit: Nevermind...didn't check Forty South

[Deck Pic]

I totally agree with you regarding DC proper. However, being a long time resident of upper MoCo, I know that the farther NW you are from DC often determines whether or not you get that one storm that makes an otherwise below average (snowfall) winter closer to the mean. I can remember quite a few storms that left DCA with little or no snow and points 15 to 20 miles NW with 4 to 8. I know you are completely aware of this as you are a local person, but I think some readers might not realize how varied the winter outcome can be in our area.

yes...but my point is still "generally" scalable for the whole region, especially over a large sample....if you average 175% of DCA's snowfall, those years that you get 250%+ of DCA's snowfall (i.e. 92-93) are pretty rare and usually balanced by years where you only get 150% of DCA's snow

[Deck Pic]

not too surprising when one considers average is now 14.5" at DCA

fwiw, I think we could add at least 2" on the average based on incompetent obs

16.4" on 12/19/09 and 17.8" on 2/6/10 are just absurd based on every other ob from all surrounding locations

I firmly believe somebody has an agenda down there

plus it is a smoothed norm..

[ORH_wxman]

Where?

Edit: Nevermind...didn't check Forty South

[ORH_wxman]

The only reason you could lean more in the favor of DCA having a 17-25" winter than recent non-Nino climo would dictate is that they were able to do it with more frequency in the past during cold pacific decadal regime. We are heading deeper into that type of regime as we go along here. So its possible the worm could turn and years like '64-'65, '62-'63, '67-'68 become more prevalent. Though from an "analog" standpoint, we are still more like the 1950s than 1960s at this point...but its hard to say with any accuracy just how each cold decadal cycle will evolve.

[jnis]

yes...but my point is still "generally" scalable for the whole region, especially over a large sample....if you average 175% of DCA's snowfall, those years that you get 250%+ of DCA's snowfall (i.e. 92-93) are pretty rare and usually balanced by years where you only get 150% of DCA's snow

I agree with what you are saying in regards to averages- if DC is below

Normal than it stands to reason that the surrounding areas will be below normal or vise- versa. I guess what I was suggesting is that areas NW of DC have a better chance of being closer to average snowfall in an otherwise unfavorable pattern then DCA by virtue of geography.

[Deck Pic]

The only reason you could lean more in the favor of DCA having a 17-25" winter than recent non-Nino climo would dictate is that they were able to do it with more frequency in the past during cold pacific decadal regime. We are heading deeper into that type of regime as we go along here. So its possible the worm could turn and years like '64-'65, '62-'63, '67-'68 become more prevalent. Though from an "analog" standpoint, we are still more like the 1950s than 1960s at this point...but its hard to say with any accuracy just how each cold decadal cycle will evolve.

we'll have a 16-40" winter at some point...the streak is absurd at this point.....but I think 16-17" is a good cap if you aren't going for a big winter....

[Deck Pic]

I agree with what you are saying in regards to averages- if DC is below

Normal than it stands to reason that the surrounding areas will be below normal or vise- versa. I guess what I was suggesting is that areas NW of DC have a better chance of being closer to average snowfall in an otherwise unfavorable pattern then DCA by virtue of geography.

not sure I agree....if you average 200% of DCA's snowfall, then years where you exceed that ratio by definition have to be countered by years where you fail to meet it....

[ORH_wxman]

we'll have a 16-40" winter at some point...the streak is absurd at this point.....but I think 16-17" is a good cap if you aren't going for a big winter....

I'd agree with you since there really isn't any particular reason to forecast an extra 3 or 4 inches of snow...so go with what recent climo has been strongly suggesting.

I don't see much of a reason to go gung ho like in the fall of 2009. But as you said, the streak will have to come to an end at some point. But its usually in neutrals or weak Ninas that it likes to do it if we are talking non-Nino climo. I don't think this Nina will be weak.

[jnis]

not sure I agree....if you average 200% of DCA's snowfall, then years where you exceed that ratio by definition have to be countered by years where you fail to meet it....

That is true, and I certainly remember the lean years:) I admit I have no data to

Support my hypothesis, but I will go out on a limb and suggest that the mean snowfall in my area has fewer extreme years relative to average than DCA.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

new QBO number (SEPT) is in......-2.30

http://www.esrl.noaa...lation/qbo.data

I stick with my theory of good odds for a cold/AN snow winter so long as we get a steady decline

I would have liked to have seen a lower number, but I'll start to worry if OCT number comes in down only a few, like -5

the reason for the concern is the only dog in my list of steadily declining QBO numbers starting in June or later was winter of 88/89, and that year the QBO started dropping in June but then stalled just below 0 for several months (you can see what I mean on the QBO link above)

dt's prelim outlook based on a this and several other factors is for a good winter here, he almost seemed giddy about the potential. most every global factor blended together in past cases gives a cool/cold outlook, he told us his analog years right now are 62,63 95,96 2008, 2009

[showmethesnow]

dt's prelim outlook based on a this and several other factors is for a good winter here, he almost seemed giddy about the potential. most every global factor blended together in past cases gives a cool/cold outlook, he told us his analog years right now are 62,63 95,96 2008, 2009

Checked his site as well as Stormvista (either the servers down or the site no longer exists) and have had no luck finding his Prelim forecast. You wouldn't by chance have a link to it. Thanks.

[WxUSAF]

Checked his site as well as Stormvista (either the servers down or the site no longer exists) and have had no luck finding his Prelim forecast. You wouldn't by chance have a link to it. Thanks.

There's a thread on the main board with a link to a radio interview he gave recently.

[Ellinwood]

dt's prelim outlook based on a this and several other factors is for a good winter here, he almost seemed giddy about the potential. most every global factor blended together in past cases gives a cool/cold outlook, he told us his analog years right now are 62,63 95,96 2008, 2009

He stole my analogs

Interesting that he decided to go with just 3 for now... it can sometimes be adequate, but when two-thirds of your data incorporates large snow years (62-63 and 95-96), you need to be either really confident in the snow forecast and/or have strong reasoning behind it (and/or be a total weenie ).