Looking ahead to Winter 2011-2012?

[mitchnick]

Personally, I'm waiting for the wool bears to see what color they are. So Far they have been quite suggesting this year will be a tough call.

funny you should mention that Wes

I saw my first one the other day and it was all one color, really

I figured it meant either wall-to-wall hot or cold

I'll finish doing my research in mid-March and will let you know what I found

[uncle W]

JAS oni index came in at -0.2...Down from 0.0 for MJJ and JJA...1967 had the same index for those months...1983, 1984 and 1995 had a -0.2 index...the four years had record cold spells in winter...

[mitchnick]

JAS oni index came in at -0.2...Down from 0.0 for MJJ and JJA...1967 had the same index for those months...1983, 1984 and 1995 had a -0.2 index...the four years had record cold spells in winter...

Uncle, I posted in my thread on the easterly QBO the years with similar QBO numbers as this year and those years included some cold winters, including 76/77

http://www.americanw...ats-for-winter/

[uncle W]

Uncle, I posted in my thread on the easterly QBO the years with similar QBO numbers as this year and those years included some cold winters, including 76/77

http://www.americanw...ats-for-winter/

67 and 95 are on both lists...I remember 1967-68 well...It had four times less snowfall than 1995-96...It did have snow on New Years Eve...It was a very frustrating winter for me...Especially seeing cold rain after one of the coldest weeks in NYC weather history...

[WinterWxLuvr]

funny you should mention that Wes

I saw my first one the other day and it was all one color, really

I figured it meant either wall-to-wall hot or cold

I'll finish doing my research in mid-March and will let you know what I found

Well, I saw one the other day that was all white. No kidding. It also had a snowboard strapped to its back. Don't know if that means anything.

[Fozz]

25-30" for DCA

In a La Nina? Explain.

[Ellinwood]

In a La Nina? Explain.

1995-96: 46.0"

[Midlo Snow Maker]

dt was on 1140am just now, says nothing supports a warmer than avg winter, temps will be normal too below with normal, and normal too above normal snow, his full outlook is tonight

[PhineasC]

Are people tossing out these big numbers and analogs because they believe them or is this trolling?

[EastCoast NPZ]

A 50/50 low is is general description on a low 500mb low pressure system @ 50N and 50W (this is the general vicinity of Newfoundland. This feature helps miller B's track further south and east and helps keep miller A's from running the apps or further west. The 50/50 also helps keep a better supply of cold air around during EC events because it will prevent high pressure to the N & W from sliding off the coast and turning the flow to a more easterly or south easterly direction (mixing and rain typical outcome here). A 50/50 low also enhances a greenland block or -NAO making conditions more favorable.

A -NAO and 50/50 low just give us favorable conditions for an EC snowstorm. Especially for us south of 40. However, there are plenty of times when a -NAO and 50/50 low doesn't do anything at all because there is no NS or SS vort to cause cyclogenesis. Most memorable events on the EC do have some sort of 50/50 low and -NAO in place though.

Thanks for the details.

Do you know the favorable pressure readings for that low, as well as the atlantic high to qualify as -NAO? In that link, the +NAO is marked by strong areas of LP and HP respectivley.

[SoCoWx]

Fwiw,

AccuNever posted their outlook...but for my home state of VA I can spot some things that seem wonky:

The national map shows no love for the southern Mid-Atl and flat out states...tain't gon' snow heah.

However...when taking a closer look at the northeast forecast map...it contradicts the national map and states "some ice and snow".

The national map is contradicted again in the article for the forecast. The article states that "near normal to slightly above normal snowfall" is expected from VA to Maine south and east of the mountains...

^This and yet their national outlook calls for next to nothing frozen-precipitation wise.

I don't buy it. And that's not out of bias either. There are several things going on that make the forecast seem..off.

I know no one here cares, but just figured I'd let you all know to get a general, overall idea of the winter forecast.

[mattie g]

Fwiw,

AccuNever posted their outlook...but for my home state of VA I can spot some things that seem wonky:

The national map shows no love for the southern Mid-Atl and flat out states...tain't gon' snow heah.

However...when taking a closer look at the northeast forecast map...it contradicts the national map and states "some ice and snow".

The national map is contradicted again in the article for the forecast. The article states that "near normal to slightly above normal snowfall" is expected from VA to Maine south and east of the mountains...

^This and yet their national outlook calls for next to nothing frozen-precipitation wise.

I don't buy it. And that's not out of bias either. There are several things going on that make the forecast seem..off.

I know no one here cares, but just figured I'd let you all know to get a general, overall idea of the winter forecast.

Either:

1) They're idiots

2) They're making calls that contradict one another in order to cover their bases

3) Both

[Ellinwood]

Link to the AccuWx article since no one wanted to post it: http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/55890/accuweathercom-winter-20112012.asp

Nothing ground-breaking.

Kind of odd to put "stormy & cold" right next to "little if any frozen precip," but that's AccuWx for ya.

[WxUSAF]

2) They're making calls that contradict one another in order to cover their bases

Mostly this. "Stormy and Cold, Mild Spells" for the I-95 corridor. Well...that pretty much gets you guaranteed 100% accuracy!

I went to school with one of the Accuwx forecasters they quote

[MN Transplant]

Did they just put out a map of what usually happens in winter across the country and call it a forecast? Breaking news: cold in the upper midwest and little frozen precipitation in the deep south

[usedtobe]

Did they just put out a map of what usually happens in winter across the country and call it a forecast? Breaking news: cold in the upper midwest and little frozen precipitation in the deep south

I'll comment on it once the CWG puts it up on their website.

[Ian]

accuweather is a joke.. why do people even care what they say? they will paint 95 in some intriguing scenario no matter what.

[mattie g]

accuweather is a joke.. why do people even care what they say? they will paint 95 in some intriguing scenario no matter what.

Because it's so awesome.

[Bob Chill]

accuweather is a joke.. why do people even care what they say? they will paint 95 in some intriguing scenario no matter what.

Yes sir. It's their MO. Gotta grab the attention of the biggest population centers so they can increase their revenue. That's the part of accuwx that bothers me the most. The forecasters themselves are all educated mets so it isn't like they have no idea about the science of weather. They are required to forcast sensational weather regardless of whether or not they truly believe what they are forecasting. That is an injustice to the subscribers and readers. Forecasting isn't supposed to work like that.

[WxUSAF]

Yes sir. It's their MO. Gotta grab the attention of the biggest population centers so they can increase their revenue. That's the part of accuwx that bothers me the most. The forecasters themselves are all educated mets so it isn't like they have no idea about the science of weather. They are required to forcast sensational weather regardless of whether or not they truly believe what they are forecasting. That is an injustice to the subscribers and readers. Forecasting isn't supposed to work like that.

I don't think this is true...at least I don't know of that being true. I do think that Accuwx purposefully hypes the potential for significant weather to increase ratings/revenues, but I don't think they are deliberately falsifying forecasts. It's more a case of 90% chance of minor storm and 10% chance of major storm = talking 90% of the time about the chances for a major storm.

[mitchnick]

new QBO number (SEPT) is in......-2.30

http://www.esrl.noaa...lation/qbo.data

I stick with my theory of good odds for a cold/AN snow winter so long as we get a steady decline

I would have liked to have seen a lower number, but I'll start to worry if OCT number comes in down only a few, like -5

the reason for the concern is the only dog in my list of steadily declining QBO numbers starting in June or later was winter of 88/89, and that year the QBO started dropping in June but then stalled just below 0 for several months (you can see what I mean on the QBO link above)

[mitchnick]

Yes sir. It's their MO. Gotta grab the attention of the biggest population centers so they can increase their revenue. That's the part of accuwx that bothers me the most. The forecasters themselves are all educated mets so it isn't like they have no idea about the science of weather. They are required to forcast sensational weather regardless of whether or not they truly believe what they are forecasting. That is an injustice to the subscribers and readers. Forecasting isn't supposed to work like that.

you know, this is where I say, they are what they are

I don't have a problem with what they do, we all know what it is

when you have to compete against a free service (NWS), you better market yourself

I think if you really want a reasonably decent forecast out of accuwx, stick to a few of the bloggers like Elliot Abrams, Lundberg or Bret Anderson

if you want speculation, hype, etc., which us snow lovers in the MA need for mental stability during the winter, we all know where to go on their site

[Bob Chill]

I don't think this is true...at least I don't know of that being true.

I don't know if it's true either. Just MHO.

I'll pay some attention when threats appear on models. I'm not 100% sure but I do remember accuwx continuing to beat the drum when recent model runs clearly showed the threat was either diminished or off the table.

[Bob Chill]

new QBO number (SEPT) is in......-2.30

http://www.esrl.noaa...lation/qbo.data

I stick with my theory of good odds for a cold/AN snow winter so long as we get a steady decline

I would have liked to have seen a lower number, but I'll start to worry if OCT number comes in down only a few, like -5

the reason for the concern is the only dog in my list of steadily declining QBO numbers starting in June or later was winter of 88/89, and that year the QBO started dropping in June but then stalled just below 0 for several months (you can see what I mean on the QBO link above)

I don't think 88/89 really works though. The late 80's and early 90's were pretty much dominated by a hefty winter season +NAO. I'm not saying that we don't have a worst case ENSO/QBO/NAO/AO winter but I think the odds favor at least a modest extended period of blocking and -AO/NAO. This would help offset some damage of the QBO not cooperating.

[mitchnick]

I don't think 88/89 really works though. The late 80's and early 90's were pretty much dominated by a hefty winter season +NAO. I'm not saying that we don't have a worst case ENSO/QBO/NAO/AO winter but I think the odds favor at least a modest extended period of blocking and -AO/NAO. This would help offset some damage of the QBO not cooperating.

I would agree with you on the AO/NAO, but my original thread was based purely on the QBO numbers and tendency downward so my point is that if the QBO continues to drop steadily this year will fit with the great majority of years that had cold and generally AN snows based purely on the QBO

[Bob Chill]

I would agree with you on the AO/NAO, but my original thread was based purely on the QBO numbers and tendency downward so my point is that if the QBO continues to drop steadily this year will fit with the great majority of years that had cold and generally AN snows based purely on the QBO

Gotchya. I'll go ahead and ride your QBO train until it wrecks and Ji cancels winter.

[Bob Chill]

Thanks for the details.

Do you know the favorable pressure readings for that low, as well as the atlantic high to qualify as -NAO? In that link, the +NAO is marked by strong areas of LP and HP respectivley.

These maps should help you visualize the features. I pulled 500mb height maps for the day before the Dec 19,2009 and Feb 5, 2010 storms:

The best way to understand a -NAO and 50/50 is to see their placement. It makes it easier to understand why they are important to EC snowstorms. It's like a pressure sandwich. Both of the maps above show the higher heights over Greenland (-NAO or "block') and lower heights over Newfoundland (50/50).

They aren't tandem features. You can have a -NOA without a 50/50. This actually happens alot. This is when MA weenies pray to god the HP to the N and W doesn't slide off the coast and make us cold and wet instead of cold and white.

[mitchnick]

These maps should help you visualize the features. I pulled 500mb height maps for the day before the Dec 19,2009 and Feb 5, 2010 storms:

The best way to understand a -NAO and 50/50 is to see their placement. It makes it easier to understand why they are important to EC snowstorms. It's like a pressure sandwich. Both of the maps above show the higher heights over Greenland (-NAO or "block') and lower heights over Newfoundland (50/50).

They aren't tandem features. You can have a -NOA without a 50/50. This actually happens alot. This is when MA weenies pray to god the HP to the N and W doesn't slide off the coast and make us cold and wet instead of cold and white.

there should be rule of this forum not to post any maps from that winter

I'm tired of trying to explain to my wife why I've been crying

[CheesyPoofs]

there should be rule of this forum not to post any maps from that winter

I'm tired of trying to explain to my wife why I've been crying

I was feeling nostalgic the other day, and I went through some archives from Dec 19th and Feb 5th/10th (model runs/warnings/the PNS statement(s) discussing how we had set seasonal snowfall records, etc.). I didn't cry per se, heh, but my eyes started to water a bit. I'm not sure if it was because the memories were so good or if it was because I realized I wouldn't be seeing something similar anytime soon.

[usedtobe]

My comments on the CWG still hold. The forecast is pretty much in line with a typical La Nina-like storm track to our west. La Ninas tend to have big swings in temperatures.... This year the complication is what the NAO will do as it’s been running negative for decent chunks during the last several winters. The same will probably hold this winter as we seem to have cycled into a period with more blocking in the North Atlantic than we had in the 1990s and early part of the decade. That blocking [negative NAO] probably will give us some chances for snow even with a La Nina. But with such a strong northern stream, we still may only get fringed with storms sort of like last year. Except for the Northern Plains, I don’t think this will be an easy year for seasonal forecasters.

The accuweather long range forecast is tilted heavily towards la nina climo with some acknowledgement that the nao could also have an impact on the pattern which might change things across our region and the south. The complication due to the NAO is one reason I hesitate to make guesses about the winter this early in the game. I pretty much agree with the NWS call for equal chances as to our temperature anomalies. I also agree with Steve T.. It only takes one or two major snowstorms to really skew the winter snowfall average and forecasting those type events is beyond the capabilities of the science at such long time ranges.