mitchnick Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 I don't think 88/89 really works though. The late 80's and early 90's were pretty much dominated by a hefty winter season +NAO. I'm not saying that we don't have a worst case ENSO/QBO/NAO/AO winter but I think the odds favor at least a modest extended period of blocking and -AO/NAO. This would help offset some damage of the QBO not cooperating. I would agree with you on the AO/NAO, but my original thread was based purely on the QBO numbers and tendency downward so my point is that if the QBO continues to drop steadily this year will fit with the great majority of years that had cold and generally AN snows based purely on the QBO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 I would agree with you on the AO/NAO, but my original thread was based purely on the QBO numbers and tendency downward so my point is that if the QBO continues to drop steadily this year will fit with the great majority of years that had cold and generally AN snows based purely on the QBO Gotchya. I'll go ahead and ride your QBO train until it wrecks and Ji cancels winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Thanks for the details. Do you know the favorable pressure readings for that low, as well as the atlantic high to qualify as -NAO? In that link, the +NAO is marked by strong areas of LP and HP respectivley. These maps should help you visualize the features. I pulled 500mb height maps for the day before the Dec 19,2009 and Feb 5, 2010 storms: The best way to understand a -NAO and 50/50 is to see their placement. It makes it easier to understand why they are important to EC snowstorms. It's like a pressure sandwich. Both of the maps above show the higher heights over Greenland (-NAO or "block') and lower heights over Newfoundland (50/50). They aren't tandem features. You can have a -NOA without a 50/50. This actually happens alot. This is when MA weenies pray to god the HP to the N and W doesn't slide off the coast and make us cold and wet instead of cold and white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 These maps should help you visualize the features. I pulled 500mb height maps for the day before the Dec 19,2009 and Feb 5, 2010 storms: The best way to understand a -NAO and 50/50 is to see their placement. It makes it easier to understand why they are important to EC snowstorms. It's like a pressure sandwich. Both of the maps above show the higher heights over Greenland (-NAO or "block') and lower heights over Newfoundland (50/50). They aren't tandem features. You can have a -NOA without a 50/50. This actually happens alot. This is when MA weenies pray to god the HP to the N and W doesn't slide off the coast and make us cold and wet instead of cold and white. there should be rule of this forum not to post any maps from that winter I'm tired of trying to explain to my wife why I've been crying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 there should be rule of this forum not to post any maps from that winter I'm tired of trying to explain to my wife why I've been crying I was feeling nostalgic the other day, and I went through some archives from Dec 19th and Feb 5th/10th (model runs/warnings/the PNS statement(s) discussing how we had set seasonal snowfall records, etc.). I didn't cry per se, heh, but my eyes started to water a bit. I'm not sure if it was because the memories were so good or if it was because I realized I wouldn't be seeing something similar anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 My comments on the CWG still hold. The forecast is pretty much in line with a typical La Nina-like storm track to our west. La Ninas tend to have big swings in temperatures.... This year the complication is what the NAO will do as it’s been running negative for decent chunks during the last several winters. The same will probably hold this winter as we seem to have cycled into a period with more blocking in the North Atlantic than we had in the 1990s and early part of the decade. That blocking [negative NAO] probably will give us some chances for snow even with a La Nina. But with such a strong northern stream, we still may only get fringed with storms sort of like last year. Except for the Northern Plains, I don’t think this will be an easy year for seasonal forecasters. The accuweather long range forecast is tilted heavily towards la nina climo with some acknowledgement that the nao could also have an impact on the pattern which might change things across our region and the south. The complication due to the NAO is one reason I hesitate to make guesses about the winter this early in the game. I pretty much agree with the NWS call for equal chances as to our temperature anomalies. I also agree with Steve T.. It only takes one or two major snowstorms to really skew the winter snowfall average and forecasting those type events is beyond the capabilities of the science at such long time ranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 In a La Nina? Explain. 1898-99. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 My comments on the CWG still hold. Wes, I think your thoughts are pretty spot on. If it wasn't for the potential increased blocking this winter we would all be expecting a pretty lame winter overall. Last year was tough on us here in the MA. So close too many times and others right in our front and back yards did quite well. The finer details just need to work in our favor a bit more this year and we'll be pretty happy. It's nice seeing NH snowcover building. Hopefully there will be a ton of cold air bottled up near the pole early in the season. If/when we do get a -ao/nao we can expect some pretty chilly temps. It's definintely alot easier to long range forecast the west than the east this winter. CO ski areas are expecting another solid year and it's hard to argue against that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Who knows? I know that the GFS Is showing a big tropical rain event for next week and from what I remember this would be 3 times in 1 month of something similar that might happen next week. Something like this in the winter could be epic. 95/96 winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Like I said who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 nobody knows, but you can make an educated guess....in 20 of the last 23 winters (87%) DCA has failed to reach 16" of snow and 2 of the 3 examples when it did we had a moderate Nino w/ a robust southern stream....that is knowledge..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Your right that is knowledge, but anything is possible. Do you think any of the big rain makers the past 7+ weeks could play a major role in precip totals this winter.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 They are just covering their butts for if it busts. Link to the AccuWx article since no one wanted to post it: http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/55890/accuweathercom-winter-20112012.asp Nothing ground-breaking. Kind of odd to put "stormy & cold" right next to "little if any frozen precip," but that's AccuWx for ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Perhaps semi off-topic (or maybe not), but I guess with Howard not posting here, this is the first year since the WWBB days that he won't post KA's outlook. Yeah, a lot of KA's prestige has waned over the past few years, but it is a tradition -- the first sign that winter is around the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 This bears repeating.....20 of the last 23 winters (87%), DCA has failed to reach 16"....in 2 of the 3 that it did, we had a moderate El Nino with a robust southern stream....in the other example, we had a very very weak Nina that came on the heels of 6 consecutive winters of a warm PAC (in the means)......anything is possible, but it is very unlikely and improbable that we have a huge winter....if you disagree, you are stupid.... I totally agree with you regarding DC proper. However, being a long time resident of upper MoCo, I know that the farther NW you are from DC often determines whether or not you get that one storm that makes an otherwise below average (snowfall) winter closer to the mean. I can remember quite a few storms that left DCA with little or no snow and points 15 to 20 miles NW with 4 to 8. I know you are completely aware of this as you are a local person, but I think some readers might not realize how varied the winter outcome can be in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 I don't think many disagree with you zwyts. We pretty much always have all or none type winters around here and the odds are always stacked against having above normal snow (and stacked WAY against much above normal). Our averages are skewed by blockbusters. Take a couple big snows away and our averages would be pretty lame. However, the MA does get some big ones and memorable event "can" happen pretty much any winter. Temps are usually our downfall. We usually average our normal winter precip in the 10" range for Dec-Feb. How much of that falls as snow is really tough to forecast long range. IMO- We will have some good periods of below normal temps this winter. That would at least increase the odds of normal to slightly above normal snow this winter. That's a realistic outlook for the most part. My armchair met weenie gut is thinking 15-20" DCA and 25-30" IAD-BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 This bears repeating.....20 of the last 23 winters (87%), DCA has failed to reach 16"....in 2 of the 3 that it did, we had a moderate El Nino with a robust southern stream....in the other example, we had a very very weak Nina that came on the heels of 6 consecutive winters of a warm PAC (in the means)......anything is possible, but it is very unlikely and improbable that we have a huge winter....if you disagree, you are stupid.... not too surprising when one considers average is now 14.5" at DCA fwiw, I think we could add at least 2" on the average based on incompetent obs 16.4" on 12/19/09 and 17.8" on 2/6/10 are just absurd based on every other ob from all surrounding locations I firmly believe somebody has an agenda down there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 it's already been posted Where? Edit: Nevermind...didn't check Forty South Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Where? Edit: Nevermind...didn't check Forty South Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 The only reason you could lean more in the favor of DCA having a 17-25" winter than recent non-Nino climo would dictate is that they were able to do it with more frequency in the past during cold pacific decadal regime. We are heading deeper into that type of regime as we go along here. So its possible the worm could turn and years like '64-'65, '62-'63, '67-'68 become more prevalent. Though from an "analog" standpoint, we are still more like the 1950s than 1960s at this point...but its hard to say with any accuracy just how each cold decadal cycle will evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 yes...but my point is still "generally" scalable for the whole region, especially over a large sample....if you average 175% of DCA's snowfall, those years that you get 250%+ of DCA's snowfall (i.e. 92-93) are pretty rare and usually balanced by years where you only get 150% of DCA's snow I agree with what you are saying in regards to averages- if DC is below Normal than it stands to reason that the surrounding areas will be below normal or vise- versa. I guess what I was suggesting is that areas NW of DC have a better chance of being closer to average snowfall in an otherwise unfavorable pattern then DCA by virtue of geography. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 we'll have a 16-40" winter at some point...the streak is absurd at this point.....but I think 16-17" is a good cap if you aren't going for a big winter.... I'd agree with you since there really isn't any particular reason to forecast an extra 3 or 4 inches of snow...so go with what recent climo has been strongly suggesting. I don't see much of a reason to go gung ho like in the fall of 2009. But as you said, the streak will have to come to an end at some point. But its usually in neutrals or weak Ninas that it likes to do it if we are talking non-Nino climo. I don't think this Nina will be weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 not sure I agree....if you average 200% of DCA's snowfall, then years where you exceed that ratio by definition have to be countered by years where you fail to meet it.... That is true, and I certainly remember the lean years:) I admit I have no data to Support my hypothesis, but I will go out on a limb and suggest that the mean snowfall in my area has fewer extreme years relative to average than DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 new QBO number (SEPT) is in......-2.30 http://www.esrl.noaa...lation/qbo.data I stick with my theory of good odds for a cold/AN snow winter so long as we get a steady decline I would have liked to have seen a lower number, but I'll start to worry if OCT number comes in down only a few, like -5 the reason for the concern is the only dog in my list of steadily declining QBO numbers starting in June or later was winter of 88/89, and that year the QBO started dropping in June but then stalled just below 0 for several months (you can see what I mean on the QBO link above) dt's prelim outlook based on a this and several other factors is for a good winter here, he almost seemed giddy about the potential. most every global factor blended together in past cases gives a cool/cold outlook, he told us his analog years right now are 62,63 95,96 2008, 2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 dt's prelim outlook based on a this and several other factors is for a good winter here, he almost seemed giddy about the potential. most every global factor blended together in past cases gives a cool/cold outlook, he told us his analog years right now are 62,63 95,96 2008, 2009 Checked his site as well as Stormvista (either the servers down or the site no longer exists) and have had no luck finding his Prelim forecast. You wouldn't by chance have a link to it. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Checked his site as well as Stormvista (either the servers down or the site no longer exists) and have had no luck finding his Prelim forecast. You wouldn't by chance have a link to it. Thanks. There's a thread on the main board with a link to a radio interview he gave recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 dt's prelim outlook based on a this and several other factors is for a good winter here, he almost seemed giddy about the potential. most every global factor blended together in past cases gives a cool/cold outlook, he told us his analog years right now are 62,63 95,96 2008, 2009 He stole my analogs Interesting that he decided to go with just 3 for now... it can sometimes be adequate, but when two-thirds of your data incorporates large snow years (62-63 and 95-96), you need to be either really confident in the snow forecast and/or have strong reasoning behind it (and/or be a total weenie ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Can someone post the maps for these winter 62,63 95,96 2008, 2009 Temps and Precip? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 6, 2011 Author Share Posted October 6, 2011 This winter is a disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Can someone post the maps for these winter 62,63 95,96 2008, 2009 Temps and Precip? Thanks Careful here. Weenie porn..... I kinda disagree with the look though. This implies a favored EC stormtrack and miller A's. I would say the odds are against that. Good catch Ellinwood. I wasn't paying close enough attention. Precip looks quite possible. I'm not sure about temps though in a Nina. We're going to have to have a whole bunch of +PNA and -NAO to come out looking like that with temps. LOL- taking out 2009 sure makes a big difference. The year of the Miller A for sure......memories..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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