Looking ahead to Winter 2011-2012?

[WinterWxLuvr]

I, for one, want to see the postings of people with knowledge and skill, along with their reasoning. I don't want to see WAG's because I could make one of those myself. I'd be willing to say that there are many, many members of this board who should never venture a "guess" about long range forecasting. It's one thing to throw out a particular "theory" about an upcoming storm, happens all the time in winter storms, myself included, but long range is a whole other ballgame.

I vote we keep the long range for those who actually know something so that those of us who don't can enjoy it and learn from it.

[Ellinwood]

EDIT: I'm an idiot...

Looking at DCA's seasonal snowfall totals from my analogs:

2010: 10.1"

2008: 7.5"

2000: 7.4"

1995: 46.0"

1970: 11.7"

1962: 21.4"

The weighted-average from my analogs is 21.2"

If I do the more realistic approach and cut 1995's total by half (since it's also my most-heavily weighted year), we get 14.2"

However, we need to consider that 4 of the 6 years were below average. Seems like anything is possible by just looking at my analog years

[BethesdaWX]

You have 1995/96 in there? Would you think it might be a good idea to include a mixed-layer QBO year like 1967/68, as we have now? I've been curious why so many won't even consider analogs before 1950, despite the lack of atmospheric data some good inferences could be drawn on years such as 1898/99 and 1903/04 in a more applicable sun activity phase.

Not sure if I have the guts to make a winter forecast because theres no way I have the skills to compete with folks like you and HM, but sometimes I feel the exclusion of some years earlier in our records is superficially done.

[ORH_wxman]

You have 1995/96 in there? Would you think it might be a good idea to include a mixed-layer QBO year like 1967/68, as we have now? I've been curious why so many won't even consider analogs before 1950, despite the lack of atmospheric data some good inferences could be drawn on years such as 1898/99 and 1903/04 in a more applicable sun activity phase.

Not sure if I have the guts to make a winter forecast because theres no way I have the skills to compete with folks like you and HM, but sometimes I feel the exclusion of some years earlier in our records is superficially done.

Our data on those years generally is very poor. We have sfc data but little else to go on except sunspot stuff too. It was also a much colder period in general when talking about years around 1900 so the analogs can be dangerous.

ENSO data is there but it has high error bars that far back. Much better data from the mid 1940s onward.

[Ellinwood]

You have 1995/96 in there? Would you think it might be a good idea to include a mixed-layer QBO year like 1967/68, as we have now? I've been curious why so many won't even consider analogs before 1950, despite the lack of atmospheric data some good inferences could be drawn on years such as 1898/99 and 1903/04 in a more applicable sun activity phase.

Not sure if I have the guts to make a winter forecast because theres no way I have the skills to compete with folks like you and HM, but sometimes I feel the exclusion of some years earlier in our records is superficially done.

1995-96 trended from a near neutral start in the summer to a weak Nina (analogs include weak and moderate Ninas). NAO was negative overall, with the strongest anomalies towards the beginning of the winter season (which is what I think the NAO will do, and is similar to the AO pattern from that year), and 30mb QBO trended from positive earlier in the year to negative by the start of winter. AMO started weakly positive and ended near neutral. PDO was neutral to positive, though... hurts its credibility a bit.

I did not include 67-68 mostly due to the +NAO in December and the fact that the 30mb QBO had trended from negative at the start of the year to solidly positive by the winter. I may or may not include it in my update, and I'm also considering tossing 2000. There could also be other changes with years/weights.

pre-1950... no. I don't really trust the "inferences" and measurements of the pre-1950 era.

EDIT to add: 1966-67 snowfall at DCA was 37.1"

Link for reference if anyone wants to look up other analog years: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/climate/dca/dcasnow.txt

[Bob Chill]

EDIT: I'm an idiot...

Looking at DCA's seasonal snowfall totals from my analogs:

2010: 10.1"

2008: 7.5"

2000: 7.4"

1995: 46.0"

1970: 11.7"

1962: 21.4"

The weighted-average from my analogs is 21.2"

If I do the more realistic approach and cut 1995's total by half (since it's also my most-heavily weighted year), we get 14.2"

However, we need to consider that 4 of the 6 years were below average. Seems like anything is possible by just looking at my analog years

Good stuff. Thank you.

No love for 62-63? I just realized you had that one. I was thinking your 62 was for 61-62.

We average around 10" of precip between Dec-Feb so it's always damn tricky in the MA (especially MD-VA). Gotta get the right track and the right temps and more often than not there isn't much wiggle room.

I don't think predicting normal, slightly below, or slightly above snowfall is unreasonable. It's not likely that this year will be a blockbuster or a bustola.

I have wonderered where the overrunning events have gone. We just don't seem to get them anymore and I remember them being much more common. What happened to the simple open wave of LP tracking across TN and NC with a high parked in eastern Canada or northern NY? A nice easy 2-4 or 3-5 with no need for cyclogenesis to make the ground white.

[SoCoWx]

Good stuff. Thank you.

No love for 62-63? I just realized you had that one. I was thinking your 62 was for 61-62.

We average around 10" of precip between Dec-Feb so it's always damn tricky in the MA (especially MD-VA). Gotta get the right track and the right temps and more often than not there isn't much wiggle room.

I don't think predicting normal, slightly below, or slightly above snowfall is unreasonable. It's not likely that this year will be a blockbuster or a bustola.

I have wonderered where the overrunning events have gone. We just don't seem to get them anymore and I remember them being much more common. What happened to the simple open wave of LP tracking across TN and NC with a high parked in eastern Canada or northern NY? A nice easy 2-4 or 3-5 with no need for cyclogenesis to make the ground white.

When you say precip. do you mean snow? Or liquid precip? There's a difference as 1" of water equates to around 10 or 12" of snow.

Here in this town (southeastern VA) we average 10" of snow a Winter. If you go an hour north to Richmond, they average a foot of snow. Just curious.

[BethesdaWX]

When you say precip. do you mean snow? Or liquid precip? There's a difference as 1" of water equates to around 10 or 12" of snow.

Here in this town (southeastern VA) we average 10" of snow a Winter. If you go an hour north to Richmond, they average a foot of snow. Just curious.

Dude he literally just said 10" of *precip* (Rain/snow/etc) from Dec thru Feb...if he meant snow he'd say snow. Central MD more than doubles your yearly snowfall so I'd think it should be obvious.

[BethesdaWX]

Our data on those years generally is very poor. We have sfc data but little else to go on except sunspot stuff too. It was also a much colder period in general when talking about years around 1900 so the analogs can be dangerous.

ENSO data is there but it has high error bars that far back. Much better data from the mid 1940s onward.

So you don't think it is wise to make a few inferences on the different behavior of La Nina events during that time period? The La Ninas of that era seemed to feature a different anomaly confuguration across the US than what we now call a "typical" La Nina.

[BethesdaWX]

1995-96 trended from a near neutral start in the summer to a weak Nina (analogs include weak and moderate Ninas). NAO was negative overall, with the strongest anomalies towards the beginning of the winter season (which is what I think the NAO will do, and is similar to the AO pattern from that year), and 30mb QBO trended from positive earlier in the year to negative by the start of winter. AMO started weakly positive and ended near neutral. PDO was neutral to positive, though... hurts its credibility a bit.

I did not include 67-68 mostly due to the +NAO in December and the fact that the 30mb QBO had trended from negative at the start of the year to solidly positive by the winter. I may or may not include it in my update, and I'm also considering tossing 2000. There could also be other changes with years/weights.

pre-1950... no. I don't really trust the "inferences" and measurements of the pre-1950 era.

EDIT to add: 1966-67 snowfall at DCA was 37.1"

Link for reference if anyone wants to look up other analog years: http://www.erh.noaa....dca/dcasnow.txt

Ok, thanks a bunch. Though I'm somewhat confused regarding the reference of the AMO/PDO phase as a driver in a short-term manner, pretty sure changes in the general pattern in the atmosphere would lead to a change in surface SST readings? The Gulf of Alaska has really cooled off in the past 10 days big time as that big negative has been sitting there.

Would you also consider weighting analogues with similar sun activity higher than those without it?

Just for hype, some analogs way back there than feature the -PDO/+AMO phase, + the Weak Sun, 2nd yr La Nina, (QBO aside) would include 1898/99, 1903/04, and 1909/10.

[HoCoSnowBo]

A bit random, but anyone see the Siberian snow? http://rt.com/news/prime-time/siberia-roads-paralyzed-snowfall-497/

[mitchnick]

A bit random, but anyone see the Siberian snow? http://rt.com/news/p...d-snowfall-497/

showing up now on the N. Hemisphere snow cover maps

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/snow/

[ORH_wxman]

showing up now on the N. Hemisphere snow cover maps

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/snow/

I think odds are starting to favor a colder winter there. But I don't think it will be that snowy. Usually cold Ninas are not there.

[aldie 22]

I think odds are starting to favor a colder winter there. But I don't think it will be that snowy. Usually cold Ninas are not there.

There?.....Siberia?

[mitchnick]

There?.....Siberia?

don't listen to ORH

he is our anti-snow

j/k

[mattie g]

I have absolutely no scientific reasoning behind this, which I'm sure will endear me to a certain few around here, but I've got this strange feeling that we'll see a couple nice storms of 8"+ this winter. They'll come during transitions between cold and warm spells, with a couple nuisance snows in between. A little east of I-95 will be the battleground and, of course, DCA will record lesser snows than IAD and BWI. Total snowfall will be just north of average, with a greater chance of that at IAD and BWI. Temps for the winter will come in around -1 or -2.

Not a big winter, but one that will deliver a little something to remember.

Farmer's Alamanac...eat your heart out.

[nj2va]

I have absolutely no scientific reasoning behind this, which I'm sure will endear me to a certain few around here, but I've got this strange feeling that we'll see a couple nice storms of 8"+ this winter. They'll come during transitions between cold and warm spells, with a couple nuisance snows in between. A little east of I-95 will be the battleground and, of course, DCA will record lesser snows than IAD and BWI. Total snowfall will be just north of average, with a greater chance of that at IAD and BWI. Temps for the winter will come in around -1 or -2.

Not a big winter, but one that will deliver a little something to remember.

Farmer's Alamanac...eat your heart out.

I just got back from the grocery store - already stocked up on bread and water thanks to your forecast!

No reasoning to back mine up either, but that was my general thought as well.

[mattie g]

I just got back from the grocery store - already stocked up on bread and water thanks to your forecast!

No reasoning to back mine up either, but that was my general thought as well.

Great minds...

I have to admit that part of my "feeling" for this is a potential continuation of the -NAO/-AO regime and the likelihood of a slightly negative Nina, though with the possibility of the QBO jumping in to help us out. I suppose that's just a bit of scientific reasoning, but I don't actually know much of anything about why teleconnectors do what they do (which should be obvious by my post to this point), so I prefer to think of it as just one big guess.

[Bob Chill]

This winter may end up relatively similar to last winter. The NAO wasn't exactly our friend last year though but the SE has a good time. All it would have taken last year was a little less suppression at the right times.

It was also tough watching the NS and SS 500mb vorts trying time correctly last year. Their dance was clumsy at best. Maybe....just maybe......we get a nice phaser that throws a bunch of front end overrunning followed by a classic coastal........one can dream right?

[mitchnick]

This winter may end up relatively similar to last winter. The NAO wasn't exactly our friend last year though but the SE has a good time. All it would have taken last year was a little less suppression at the right times.

It was also tough watching the NS and SS 500mb vorts trying time correctly last year. Their dance was clumsy at best. Maybe....just maybe......we get a nice phaser that throws a bunch of front end overrunning followed by a classic coastal........one can dream right?

for me, 4" or more from 12/26 would have saved last winter

it was a bitter pill because of how close reasonably decent snow came to mby

but, everyone are the Cubs this time of year so we hope and wait

I did hear the season's first group of Canadian Geese heading south last night, which is always inspirational for me

[usedtobe]

for me, 4" or more from 12/26 would have saved last winter

it was a bitter pill because of how close reasonably decent snow came to mby

but, everyone are the Cubs this time of year so we hope and wait

I did hear the season's first group of Canadian Geese heading south last night, which is always inspirational for me

Personally, I'm waiting for the wool bears to see what color they are. So Far they have been quite suggesting this year will be a tough call.

[Ian]

25-30" for DCA

[usedtobe]

25-30" for DCA

Wow, so early and emphatic. Ji probably is ready to propose to you.

[Ian]

Wow, so early and emphatic. Ji probably is ready to propose to you.

could be a really short marriage...

[Ellinwood]

could be a really short marriage...

marriage cancel

[usedtobe]

could be a really short marriage...

It probably wouldn't last through November. I remember him complaining in Jan 2010 about how except for one snowstorm, the winter sucked. I expect a winter cancel by the 1st week of December if the models show no snow in the extended periods.

[mattie g]

It probably wouldn't last through November. I remember him complaining in Jan 2010 about how except for one snowstorm, the winter sucked. I expect a winter cancel by the 1st week of December if the models show no snow in the extended periods.

If we don't get a 384 GFS triple pahser by the start of met winter, I think we have every reason to be concerned.

[WhiteoutMD]

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Blizzard92/show.html

[EastCoast NPZ]

I'm curious to know where the "sweet spot" is located for the blocking low. I've heard references to the 50/50 low, is this it? Typically, what are the favorable pressure anomalies with regard to the atlantic high and icelandic low? The previous post was very helpful in explaining things in a way that is easily understood. Thanks for posting.

[Bob Chill]

I'm curious to know where the "sweet spot" is located for the blocking low. I've heard references to the 50/50 low, is this it? Typically, what are the favorable pressure anomalies with regard to the atlantic high and icelandic low? The previous post was very helpful in explaining things in a way that is easily understood. Thanks for posting.

A 50/50 low is is general description on a low 500mb low pressure system @ 50N and 50W (this is the general vicinity of Newfoundland. This feature helps miller B's track further south and east and helps keep miller A's from running the apps or further west. The 50/50 also helps keep a better supply of cold air around during EC events because it will prevent high pressure to the N & W from sliding off the coast and turning the flow to a more easterly or south easterly direction (mixing and rain typical outcome here). A 50/50 low also enhances a greenland block or -NAO making conditions more favorable.

A -NAO and 50/50 low just give us favorable conditions for an EC snowstorm. Especially for us south of 40. However, there are plenty of times when a -NAO and 50/50 low doesn't do anything at all because there is no NS or SS vort to cause cyclogenesis. Most memorable events on the EC do have some sort of 50/50 low and -NAO in place though.