Ellinwood Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 could be a really short marriage... marriage cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 could be a really short marriage... It probably wouldn't last through November. I remember him complaining in Jan 2010 about how except for one snowstorm, the winter sucked. I expect a winter cancel by the 1st week of December if the models show no snow in the extended periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 It probably wouldn't last through November. I remember him complaining in Jan 2010 about how except for one snowstorm, the winter sucked. I expect a winter cancel by the 1st week of December if the models show no snow in the extended periods. If we don't get a 384 GFS triple pahser by the start of met winter, I think we have every reason to be concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Blizzard92/show.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 I'm curious to know where the "sweet spot" is located for the blocking low. I've heard references to the 50/50 low, is this it? Typically, what are the favorable pressure anomalies with regard to the atlantic high and icelandic low? The previous post was very helpful in explaining things in a way that is easily understood. Thanks for posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 I'm curious to know where the "sweet spot" is located for the blocking low. I've heard references to the 50/50 low, is this it? Typically, what are the favorable pressure anomalies with regard to the atlantic high and icelandic low? The previous post was very helpful in explaining things in a way that is easily understood. Thanks for posting. A 50/50 low is is general description on a low 500mb low pressure system @ 50N and 50W (this is the general vicinity of Newfoundland. This feature helps miller B's track further south and east and helps keep miller A's from running the apps or further west. The 50/50 also helps keep a better supply of cold air around during EC events because it will prevent high pressure to the N & W from sliding off the coast and turning the flow to a more easterly or south easterly direction (mixing and rain typical outcome here). A 50/50 low also enhances a greenland block or -NAO making conditions more favorable. A -NAO and 50/50 low just give us favorable conditions for an EC snowstorm. Especially for us south of 40. However, there are plenty of times when a -NAO and 50/50 low doesn't do anything at all because there is no NS or SS vort to cause cyclogenesis. Most memorable events on the EC do have some sort of 50/50 low and -NAO in place though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Personally, I'm waiting for the wool bears to see what color they are. So Far they have been quite suggesting this year will be a tough call. funny you should mention that Wes I saw my first one the other day and it was all one color, really I figured it meant either wall-to-wall hot or cold I'll finish doing my research in mid-March and will let you know what I found Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 JAS oni index came in at -0.2...Down from 0.0 for MJJ and JJA...1967 had the same index for those months...1983, 1984 and 1995 had a -0.2 index...the four years had record cold spells in winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 JAS oni index came in at -0.2...Down from 0.0 for MJJ and JJA...1967 had the same index for those months...1983, 1984 and 1995 had a -0.2 index...the four years had record cold spells in winter... Uncle, I posted in my thread on the easterly QBO the years with similar QBO numbers as this year and those years included some cold winters, including 76/77 http://www.americanw...ats-for-winter/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Uncle, I posted in my thread on the easterly QBO the years with similar QBO numbers as this year and those years included some cold winters, including 76/77 http://www.americanw...ats-for-winter/ 67 and 95 are on both lists...I remember 1967-68 well...It had four times less snowfall than 1995-96...It did have snow on New Years Eve...It was a very frustrating winter for me...Especially seeing cold rain after one of the coldest weeks in NYC weather history... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 funny you should mention that Wes I saw my first one the other day and it was all one color, really I figured it meant either wall-to-wall hot or cold I'll finish doing my research in mid-March and will let you know what I found Well, I saw one the other day that was all white. No kidding. It also had a snowboard strapped to its back. Don't know if that means anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 25-30" for DCA In a La Nina? Explain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 In a La Nina? Explain. 1995-96: 46.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 dt was on 1140am just now, says nothing supports a warmer than avg winter, temps will be normal too below with normal, and normal too above normal snow, his full outlook is tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Are people tossing out these big numbers and analogs because they believe them or is this trolling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 A 50/50 low is is general description on a low 500mb low pressure system @ 50N and 50W (this is the general vicinity of Newfoundland. This feature helps miller B's track further south and east and helps keep miller A's from running the apps or further west. The 50/50 also helps keep a better supply of cold air around during EC events because it will prevent high pressure to the N & W from sliding off the coast and turning the flow to a more easterly or south easterly direction (mixing and rain typical outcome here). A 50/50 low also enhances a greenland block or -NAO making conditions more favorable. A -NAO and 50/50 low just give us favorable conditions for an EC snowstorm. Especially for us south of 40. However, there are plenty of times when a -NAO and 50/50 low doesn't do anything at all because there is no NS or SS vort to cause cyclogenesis. Most memorable events on the EC do have some sort of 50/50 low and -NAO in place though. Thanks for the details. Do you know the favorable pressure readings for that low, as well as the atlantic high to qualify as -NAO? In that link, the +NAO is marked by strong areas of LP and HP respectivley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Fwiw, AccuNever posted their outlook...but for my home state of VA I can spot some things that seem wonky: The national map shows no love for the southern Mid-Atl and flat out states...tain't gon' snow heah. However...when taking a closer look at the northeast forecast map...it contradicts the national map and states "some ice and snow". The national map is contradicted again in the article for the forecast. The article states that "near normal to slightly above normal snowfall" is expected from VA to Maine south and east of the mountains... ^This and yet their national outlook calls for next to nothing frozen-precipitation wise. I don't buy it. And that's not out of bias either. There are several things going on that make the forecast seem..off. I know no one here cares, but just figured I'd let you all know to get a general, overall idea of the winter forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Fwiw, AccuNever posted their outlook...but for my home state of VA I can spot some things that seem wonky: The national map shows no love for the southern Mid-Atl and flat out states...tain't gon' snow heah. However...when taking a closer look at the northeast forecast map...it contradicts the national map and states "some ice and snow". The national map is contradicted again in the article for the forecast. The article states that "near normal to slightly above normal snowfall" is expected from VA to Maine south and east of the mountains... ^This and yet their national outlook calls for next to nothing frozen-precipitation wise. I don't buy it. And that's not out of bias either. There are several things going on that make the forecast seem..off. I know no one here cares, but just figured I'd let you all know to get a general, overall idea of the winter forecast. Either: 1) They're idiots 2) They're making calls that contradict one another in order to cover their bases 3) Both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Link to the AccuWx article since no one wanted to post it: http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/55890/accuweathercom-winter-20112012.asp Nothing ground-breaking. Kind of odd to put "stormy & cold" right next to "little if any frozen precip," but that's AccuWx for ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 2) They're making calls that contradict one another in order to cover their bases Mostly this. "Stormy and Cold, Mild Spells" for the I-95 corridor. Well...that pretty much gets you guaranteed 100% accuracy! I went to school with one of the Accuwx forecasters they quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Did they just put out a map of what usually happens in winter across the country and call it a forecast? Breaking news: cold in the upper midwest and little frozen precipitation in the deep south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Did they just put out a map of what usually happens in winter across the country and call it a forecast? Breaking news: cold in the upper midwest and little frozen precipitation in the deep south I'll comment on it once the CWG puts it up on their website. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 accuweather is a joke.. why do people even care what they say? they will paint 95 in some intriguing scenario no matter what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 accuweather is a joke.. why do people even care what they say? they will paint 95 in some intriguing scenario no matter what. Because it's so awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 accuweather is a joke.. why do people even care what they say? they will paint 95 in some intriguing scenario no matter what. Yes sir. It's their MO. Gotta grab the attention of the biggest population centers so they can increase their revenue. That's the part of accuwx that bothers me the most. The forecasters themselves are all educated mets so it isn't like they have no idea about the science of weather. They are required to forcast sensational weather regardless of whether or not they truly believe what they are forecasting. That is an injustice to the subscribers and readers. Forecasting isn't supposed to work like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Yes sir. It's their MO. Gotta grab the attention of the biggest population centers so they can increase their revenue. That's the part of accuwx that bothers me the most. The forecasters themselves are all educated mets so it isn't like they have no idea about the science of weather. They are required to forcast sensational weather regardless of whether or not they truly believe what they are forecasting. That is an injustice to the subscribers and readers. Forecasting isn't supposed to work like that. I don't think this is true...at least I don't know of that being true. I do think that Accuwx purposefully hypes the potential for significant weather to increase ratings/revenues, but I don't think they are deliberately falsifying forecasts. It's more a case of 90% chance of minor storm and 10% chance of major storm = talking 90% of the time about the chances for a major storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 new QBO number (SEPT) is in......-2.30 http://www.esrl.noaa...lation/qbo.data I stick with my theory of good odds for a cold/AN snow winter so long as we get a steady decline I would have liked to have seen a lower number, but I'll start to worry if OCT number comes in down only a few, like -5 the reason for the concern is the only dog in my list of steadily declining QBO numbers starting in June or later was winter of 88/89, and that year the QBO started dropping in June but then stalled just below 0 for several months (you can see what I mean on the QBO link above) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Yes sir. It's their MO. Gotta grab the attention of the biggest population centers so they can increase their revenue. That's the part of accuwx that bothers me the most. The forecasters themselves are all educated mets so it isn't like they have no idea about the science of weather. They are required to forcast sensational weather regardless of whether or not they truly believe what they are forecasting. That is an injustice to the subscribers and readers. Forecasting isn't supposed to work like that. you know, this is where I say, they are what they are I don't have a problem with what they do, we all know what it is when you have to compete against a free service (NWS), you better market yourself I think if you really want a reasonably decent forecast out of accuwx, stick to a few of the bloggers like Elliot Abrams, Lundberg or Bret Anderson if you want speculation, hype, etc., which us snow lovers in the MA need for mental stability during the winter, we all know where to go on their site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 I don't think this is true...at least I don't know of that being true. I don't know if it's true either. Just MHO. I'll pay some attention when threats appear on models. I'm not 100% sure but I do remember accuwx continuing to beat the drum when recent model runs clearly showed the threat was either diminished or off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 new QBO number (SEPT) is in......-2.30 http://www.esrl.noaa...lation/qbo.data I stick with my theory of good odds for a cold/AN snow winter so long as we get a steady decline I would have liked to have seen a lower number, but I'll start to worry if OCT number comes in down only a few, like -5 the reason for the concern is the only dog in my list of steadily declining QBO numbers starting in June or later was winter of 88/89, and that year the QBO started dropping in June but then stalled just below 0 for several months (you can see what I mean on the QBO link above) I don't think 88/89 really works though. The late 80's and early 90's were pretty much dominated by a hefty winter season +NAO. I'm not saying that we don't have a worst case ENSO/QBO/NAO/AO winter but I think the odds favor at least a modest extended period of blocking and -AO/NAO. This would help offset some damage of the QBO not cooperating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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