Looking ahead to Winter 2011-2012?

[NYsnowlover]

Also, when has Henry M not found a way to put State College in some sort of snow disastah zone?

Lol, he does that every year!!!!!

The funny thing is that it never seems to go his way, it either goes west, or leke the past two winters, it has gone to the south and to the east!!

[TalcottWx]

Henry M should be a banned word combo/name on this forum

[violinist]

Henry M should be a banned word combo/name on this forum

Last time I checked, this was an open, free forum for a debate of various weather issues, by meteorologists from different opinion sides.I maybe wrong on this statement. Just because you don't agree with a particular met opinion, or their view being presented by anyone is not a reason to ban them. That idea is precisely why I read this board. I look forward to different ideas about the weather. Hope this doesn't change.Some of the most radical ideas have proven to be accurrate in time following the preentation of the ideas.

[Ellinwood]

Last time I checked, this was an open, free forum for a debate of various weather issues, by meteorologists from different opinion sides.I maybe wrong on this statement. Just because you don't agree with a particular met opinion, or their view being presented by anyone is not a reason to ban them. That idea is precisely why I read this board. I look forward to different ideas about the weather. Hope this doesn't change.Some of the most radical ideas have proven to be accurrate in time following the preentation of the ideas.

Problem is, Henry M. is generally a horrible met to follow. The well-informed know this, and they know better than to post Henry's (or JB's or DT's or LC's) maps without any purpose other than to mock it.

[Bob Chill]

Problem is, Henry M. is generally a horrible met to follow. The well-informed know this, and they know better than to post Henry's (or JB's or DT's or LC's) maps without any purpose other than to mock it.

Yes, the MO of accuwx mets is not to deliver sound scientific forecasts but to deliver as much eye grabbing weather entertainment as possible. It's what they are paid to do and while they might get it right sometimes (just like a clock twice a day) it is best to steer clear of posting their forecasts on this board.

[Bob Chill]

I started taking a look at the 60's. From the basic NAO, PDO, and ENSO there are some hints towards a potentially cooler than normal MA winter. The 60's featured a -NAO / -AO through the majority of the decade:

ENSO for the most part was neg neutral and a NINA in 62-63, 64-65, and 67-68:

I'm not totally sold on a NINA this year but its hard to argue with the models getting us at least down in the -1.0 range so weak to moderate NINA is probably going to happen. It is still possible that it is just a neg neutral.

PDO was clearly negative through pretty much the entire decade:

I took years that featured a -NAO/-AO and at least a neg neutral or true Nina, I came up with the following analogs:

1959-60

1960-61

1962-63

1966-67

1967-68

There are some similarities in the 60's to what we are seeing now. Especially with the PDO and AO/NAO indexes. I don't know nearly enough to elaborate other than there are long term cycles and we appear to be entering a potential long term -PDO / NAO / AO cycle.

Here is the DJF temp composite for the analogs above:

Interestingly, if you pull each month separately, all 3 are below to much below average in temperature. The second year Nina's I pulled previously almost all had a cold December but either Jan or Feb was pretty warm.

Looking at the above temp map I would have to assume that the persitent -NAO during the 60's kept cold locked in the east and even the eastern 3/4ths of the country and all the way south to the gulf coast and Florida.

Even more interesting is when I singled out the Nina years of 62-63, 64-65, 67-68:

Seeing warmth in the Pac NW kinda defies what you normally see during a Nina winter. I assume a +PNA/-NAO is the reason behind this?

DJF precip was below normal across the NE / MA / MW regardless of what years I pulled. I believe this is caused by a suppressed storm track with strong blocking.

I don't know enough to say with any confidence that this winter could be similar to what we saw in the 60's but there are at least some indications that shows it's possible.

[okie333]

Even more interesting is when I singled out the Nina years of 62-63, 64-65, 67-68:

Seeing warmth in the Pac NW kinda defies what you normally see during a Nina winter. I assume a +PNA/-NAO is the reason behind this?

DJF precip was below normal across the NE / MA / MW regardless of what years I pulled. I believe this is caused by a suppressed storm track with strong blocking.

I don't know enough to say with any confidence that this winter could be similar to what we saw in the 60's but there are at least some indications that shows it's possible.

Result looks oddly like my analog set, which is very largely AO/NAO based:

Every analog but 2010-2011, 1917-1918, and 1898-1899 was based on the list of years where the summer AO and NAO were both negative for all 3 months (that is, all 6 values). The summer AO has a +.35 correlation to its value the following winter, and the NAO, despite its lower +.1 correlation, was so low this summer that it has to be factored in. 2010-2011 was added in because the pattern has had a persistence to it recently, also there will be a La Niña again, though not as strong. Solar activity is still fairly low as well, likely causing the persistence to some extent. A +QBO causes LESS blocking, not more... at least at 30 mb, so I honestly don't see why there will be a higher AO this winter than last. The lingering +QBO at 50 mb should last long enough to keep the SE ridge very week or keep it from forming altogether, while the -QBO at 30 mb should allow blocking (as in the AO... NAO may not be quite as negative as last winter due to a summer Atlantic SST configuration that's not as good as last winter's, despite still bring favorable) to form more readily than last winter. 1917-1918 and 1898-1899 were added (and double-weighted) because they are both second-year weak/mod La Niñas in a long-term low solar period. I didn't really look at 1898-1899's winter temps until after I decided to double-weight it, honest.

[Bob Chill]

Result looks oddly like my analog set, which is very largely AO/NAO based:

I did 500mb height maps based on Nina years with -AO/NAO and -PDO and compared them to other Nina years. It was very interesting. Heights were clearly lower in the NE/MW/MA compared to many recent Nina's (with the exception of last year of course). Heights had a very +PNA / -NAO look for sure and that is anti Nina.

I know there is a heck of a lot more to it than just looking at a couple of indexes but It's hard to deny the consistent composites showing a cold east half of the Country.

We'll have a great feel for what's coming up once we approach December. Every single analog I have used has shown below to much below normal temps for the E half of the country in Dec.

[okie333]

I did 500mb height maps based on Nina years with -AO/NAO and -PDO and compared them to other Nina years. It was very interesting. Heights were clearly lower in the NE/MW/MA compared to many recent Nina's (with the exception of last year of course). Heights had a very +PNA / -NAO look for sure and that is anti Nina.

I know there is a heck of a lot more to it than just looking at a couple of indexes but It's hard to deny the consistent composites showing a cold east half of the Country.

We'll have a great feel for what's coming up once we approach December. Every single analog I have used has shown below to much below normal temps for the E half of the country in Dec.

Yes, and the later part of that 1898-1899 analog could come into play around New Year's if my indicators are correct.

[TalcottWx]

Last time I checked, this was an open, free forum for a debate of various weather issues, by meteorologists from different opinion sides.I maybe wrong on this statement. Just because you don't agree with a particular met opinion, or their view being presented by anyone is not a reason to ban them. That idea is precisely why I read this board. I look forward to different ideas about the weather. Hope this doesn't change.Some of the most radical ideas have proven to be accurrate in time following the preentation of the ideas.

Keep following Henry M and posting KMA/nogaps forecasts because of your freedom to exercise your rights on the board. It will definitely bring your forecasts into the next level of the ****ter.

[violinist]

Keep following Henry M and posting KMA/nogaps forecasts because of your freedom to exercise your rights on the board. It will definitely bring your forecasts into the next level of the ****ter.

well since I dont post any of the above, I dont have much to worry about. do I ??? Nor do I forecast anything, so your statement is way overboard.

[marked8]

Problem is, Henry M. is generally a horrible met to follow. The well-informed know this, and they know better than to post Henry's (or JB's or DT's or LC's) maps without any purpose other than to mock it.

After the debacle of a few years ago most ordinary people know about his forecasts as well. The post of his forecast generated discussion in a thread that was nearly dead and differing viewpoints is what I wanted to see, precisely because I know his history.

[Ellinwood]

After the debacle of a few years ago most ordinary people know about his forecasts as well. The post of his forecast generated discussion in a thread that was nearly dead and differing viewpoints is what I wanted to see, precisely because I know his history.

What value does adding a forecast have when no one considers it to be useful?

[aldie 22]

I eagerly anticipate winter every year....you win some you lose some but to me winter is where it's at....I can't wait until we are tracking that first snow regardless of how big....I simply love to see snow falling from the sky.

[brad1551]

I have read a bunch on this years winter. From what I have read are not blogs or wishcasting reports. I have read true reports from true Metoroligist . Northern Va will not be in a snow bubble this year. This year will be a weak La Nina. I have heard moderate as well but most of those predictions have been shot down. Calling for below average temps. As well as well above average snow fall. Warm air will stay along the coast and not the brutal cold like last year. I have read in most cases that is good for snow lovers. Keeps the coastal storms from going out to sea. More hugging the coast instead more snow inland. Unlike last year were they stayed farther of the coast and pound Philly on up to Maine. I personally do not care much for snow and the cold. This year I have a funny feeling Northern Va will be paid back for all of last years close calls. I hope not but I sure do have the feeling of a snowy cold winter. Will see right?

[brad1551]

I eagerly anticipate winter every year....you win some you lose some but to me winter is where it's at....I can't wait until we are tracking that first snow regardless of how big....I simply love to see snow falling from the sky.

[brad1551]

I have that feeling if you like snow unlike me . You will be a very happy person this year. I will hate having to shovel every week or every other weeks big dig out. Remember what I wrote you because you will remember what I said. Big snow this year. I wish I could say warm and dry winter.

[EastCoast NPZ]

I eagerly anticipate winter every year....you win some you lose some but to me winter is where it's at....I can't wait until we are tracking that first snow regardless of how big....I simply love to see snow falling from the sky.

[ThePhotoGuy]

I eagerly anticipate winter every year....you win some you lose some but to me winter is where it's at....I can't wait until we are tracking that first snow regardless of how big....I simply love to see snow falling from the sky.

This.

[marked8]

What value does adding a forecast have when no one considers it to be useful?

1. He is a professional meteorologist

2. At this point everything is still an educated guess

3. Some people over there are actually agreeing with him.

4. The thread was dead and at least people are talking again.

5. It is a differing opinion than some and I wanted to hear what people thought of his ideas.

[Ellinwood]

1. He is a professional meteorologist

2. At this point everything is still an educated guess

3. Some people over there are actually agreeing with him.

4. The thread was dead and at least people are talking again.

5. It is a differing opinion than some and I wanted to hear what people thought of his ideas.

1. So what? What matters is the ability to forecast, not whether or not you've got a met. degree.

2. Correct.

3. It's AccuWx... of course people are going to agree with it over there.

4. Only we're talking about the wrong things.

5. Whether it's different or not is irrelevant... what matters is what went into making the forecast. I could put a map up with a giant +3 to the temps across the entire U.S. and it would be different. And RE: what we thought of his ideas... you've already said that you "know his history" and that "most ordinary people know about his forecasts as well" (in reference to being bad), so you already knew the answer of what people thought about it (or would most likely think about it) before you posted.

[TalcottWx]

well since I dont post any of the above, I dont have much to worry about. do I ??? Nor do I forecast anything, so your statement is way overboard.

Your statement is completely unnecessary about the subject then. Why do you care? Your pretty much sitting here saying people should be able to post the garbage. You might as well be posting it

[marked8]

1. So what? What matters is the ability to forecast, not whether or not you've got a met. degree.

2. Correct.

3. It's AccuWx... of course people are going to agree with it over there.

4. Only we're talking about the wrong things.

5. Whether it's different or not is irrelevant... what matters is what went into making the forecast. I could put a map up with a giant +3 to the temps across the entire U.S. and it would be different. And RE: what we thought of his ideas... you've already said that you "know his history" and that "most ordinary people know about his forecasts as well" (in reference to being bad), so you already knew the answer of what people thought about it (or would most likely think about it) before you posted.

And your Met. degree is from where and where do you work? If not a pro met., how do your ideas on the upcoming winter stand above what other amateurs are forecasting? His forecast was relevant to the area and to the thread. I wanted to hear opinions based on facts and I posted it and will do so again when revised. If a site owner says his ideas are banned for discussion I will happily oblige.

[TalcottWx]

And your Met. degree is from where and where do you work? If not a pro met., how do your ideas on the upcoming winter stand above what other amateurs are forecasting? His forecast was relevant to the area and to the thread. I wanted to hear opinions based on facts and I posted it and will do so again when revised. If a site owner says his ideas are banned for discussion I will happily oblige.

His outlooks are ****ty compared to elllinwoods. I hope you can see the difference

[Ellinwood]

And your Met. degree is from where and where do you work? If not a pro met., how do your ideas on the upcoming winter stand above what other amateurs are forecasting? His forecast was relevant to the area and to the thread. I wanted to hear opinions based on facts and I posted it and will do so again when revised. If a site owner says his ideas are banned for discussion I will happily oblige.

Read my sig. for a mini-CV of education and current job.

When did I say that my ideas stand above what other amateurs are forecasting? While some may seem more correct than others, that's just still my opinion. I was solely discussing the quality of Henry M's forecast (who is a met, not an amateur).

[marked8]

Read my sig. for a mini-CV of education and current job.

When did I say that my ideas stand above what other amateurs are forecasting? While some may seem more correct than others, that's just still my opinion. I was solely discussing the quality of Henry M's forecast (who is a met, not an amateur).

I was reading from a tablet and your sig was not visible on it. You are still missing my point here, I want to know (other than his idea of trends) how his idea of how the winter is going to stack up compared to what others here think? What are your current ideas on how the winter is going to stack up and what is he missing? I posted it solely for that comparison. I read the threads here because the info is better than that available there, but there has to be a discussion to get any information.

[violinist]

Your statement is completely unnecessary about the subject then. Why do you care? Your pretty much sitting here saying people should be able to post the garbage. You might as well be posting it

Sir, all I,m doing is defending the right to post what he says. Why do I care ? Because someone has the right to post what he thinks. No matter what you think of him. If people dont like him , so be it. Its your want him to be banned , over nothing, is what I object to. Difference is I dont post ""garbage"" as you put it. but I like to read all points of view, which is not what you , seem, to want to do. I,m more tolerant of other people's opinions, whereas you seem to be the opposite. Go about your business, as I,m done here. You and I are on two different wavelengths, and that will never change.

[Ellinwood]

I was reading from a tablet and your sig was not visible on it. You are still missing my point here, I want to know (other than his idea of trends) how his idea of how the winter is going to stack up compared to what others here think? What are your current ideas on how the winter is going to stack up and what is he missing? I posted it solely for that comparison. I read the threads here because the info is better than that available there, but there has to be a discussion to get any information.

From my sig:

Operational Forecaster for MDA Information Systems Inc. / EarthSat

B.S. with Honors in Atmospheric Science from SUNY Albany, with minors in Computer Science and Mathematics. One semester of grad. school at NCSU.

My "current ideas of how the winter is going to stack up" was already posted more than once... here's the latest:

It's in the main forum: http://www.americanw...precip-forecast

Will re-post that I'm expecting 90-125% snowfall for the Mid-Atlantic this winter (which would be around 15-21" for DCA).

What he is missing? Evidence of his claim by showing correlations (most likely via analogs) is the biggest one that stands out. Anyone can make a claim, but when one doesn't substantiate what you're saying, your credibility takes a hit. Henry M. has shown that he consistently does not substantiate his arguments/viewpoints with evidence/real science, which is one of the reasons why he is a bad met. Hell, even if he said "I don't have much evidence to support this, but this is my own theory/gut feeling of how things will play out," THAT would be better than saying "this in October means this in winter."

[nj2va]

I don't see the problem in people posting "garbage" - let the board see all views, understand them, and evaluate them. For whoever has an issue, couldn't you either block them or educate the board as to why you think their forecast sucks. I enjoy reading all views and understanding why they are more or less accurate. The issue I have is the attitude some here have. To each their own. In the end, why get so worked up?

[brad1551]

I believe that DCA will get 22-26in because of the storm track is going to be active. I believe that Northern Va from Prince William County to Hardy West Va will get 26-31in because of the storm track. Less for DCA but still above average because they will get more of a warm air slot when the L pressure system hits the coast. Just my opinion not a true forecast. I have been right 4 out of the last 5 years. I was off in 09-10. Who would of thought all of that snow anyway.