Looking ahead to Winter 2011-2012?

[PhineasC]

A combination of the Magic 8 Ball and Henry M.

I will wait until March 21st 2012 for verification.

How about you shut up now?

[SNO]

How about you shut up now?

No...I'll just laugh at you instead

[BethesdaWX]

This is setting up to be a classic I-81 Winter. Those on or East 95 will deal with mostly rain events and the further W you are will be where the mixed precip sets up.

Roanoke to Hagerstown look money...IAD in the game...DCA and BWI agony awaits.

1) By chance where do you reside? (Your Location).

2) Where do you come up with this? No, not the 8-Ball, seriously. You're talking out of your azz.

[BethesdaWX]

Also, when has Henry M not found a way to put State College in some sort of snow disastah zone?

[violinist]

I saw an interesting pre winter prediction this morning from WSI, dont know how valid it is, but it had the entire east coast in below normal temps thru jan. and much below normal temps in the midatlantic. That is very interesting to see. Wonder what the implications are for rain/snow are in the midatlantic area???

[Sparky]

Although this is outside of my knowledge base, I pulled together some analog years based on ENSO and PDO. It is pretty clear that we were in a long duration -PDO from approximately 1950 to 1980:

Assuming that we are moving back into a long term -PDO cycle (I really can't say we are. Just making an assumption based on the chart above) then pulling the second year Nina winters during the 1950-1980 timeframe makes sense. I pulled these years from ENSO data:

1950-51

1955-56

1974-75

1975-76

Those are the best I can find. When I created temp anomoly composites for those analog years, the winters overall were warmer than average. However, December was very cold and March was average. Jan was a bit warmer than average and Feb was pretty much a torch.

I lived those two winters in the 70s.

74/75 was absolutely craptastic for snow lovers. Biggest bestest storm was a 4 incher in early Feb.

75/76 was only marginally better cause of an interesting wet March 9 snowstorm dumping about 6 inches in Balto. Feb. had some of the most memorable warm/mild weather in my life.

[NYsnowlover]

Also, when has Henry M not found a way to put State College in some sort of snow disastah zone?

Lol, he does that every year!!!!!

The funny thing is that it never seems to go his way, it either goes west, or leke the past two winters, it has gone to the south and to the east!!

[TalcottWx]

Henry M should be a banned word combo/name on this forum

[violinist]

Henry M should be a banned word combo/name on this forum

Last time I checked, this was an open, free forum for a debate of various weather issues, by meteorologists from different opinion sides.I maybe wrong on this statement. Just because you don't agree with a particular met opinion, or their view being presented by anyone is not a reason to ban them. That idea is precisely why I read this board. I look forward to different ideas about the weather. Hope this doesn't change.Some of the most radical ideas have proven to be accurrate in time following the preentation of the ideas.

[Ellinwood]

Last time I checked, this was an open, free forum for a debate of various weather issues, by meteorologists from different opinion sides.I maybe wrong on this statement. Just because you don't agree with a particular met opinion, or their view being presented by anyone is not a reason to ban them. That idea is precisely why I read this board. I look forward to different ideas about the weather. Hope this doesn't change.Some of the most radical ideas have proven to be accurrate in time following the preentation of the ideas.

Problem is, Henry M. is generally a horrible met to follow. The well-informed know this, and they know better than to post Henry's (or JB's or DT's or LC's) maps without any purpose other than to mock it.

[Bob Chill]

Problem is, Henry M. is generally a horrible met to follow. The well-informed know this, and they know better than to post Henry's (or JB's or DT's or LC's) maps without any purpose other than to mock it.

Yes, the MO of accuwx mets is not to deliver sound scientific forecasts but to deliver as much eye grabbing weather entertainment as possible. It's what they are paid to do and while they might get it right sometimes (just like a clock twice a day) it is best to steer clear of posting their forecasts on this board.

[Bob Chill]

I started taking a look at the 60's. From the basic NAO, PDO, and ENSO there are some hints towards a potentially cooler than normal MA winter. The 60's featured a -NAO / -AO through the majority of the decade:

ENSO for the most part was neg neutral and a NINA in 62-63, 64-65, and 67-68:

I'm not totally sold on a NINA this year but its hard to argue with the models getting us at least down in the -1.0 range so weak to moderate NINA is probably going to happen. It is still possible that it is just a neg neutral.

PDO was clearly negative through pretty much the entire decade:

I took years that featured a -NAO/-AO and at least a neg neutral or true Nina, I came up with the following analogs:

1959-60

1960-61

1962-63

1966-67

1967-68

There are some similarities in the 60's to what we are seeing now. Especially with the PDO and AO/NAO indexes. I don't know nearly enough to elaborate other than there are long term cycles and we appear to be entering a potential long term -PDO / NAO / AO cycle.

Here is the DJF temp composite for the analogs above:

Interestingly, if you pull each month separately, all 3 are below to much below average in temperature. The second year Nina's I pulled previously almost all had a cold December but either Jan or Feb was pretty warm.

Looking at the above temp map I would have to assume that the persitent -NAO during the 60's kept cold locked in the east and even the eastern 3/4ths of the country and all the way south to the gulf coast and Florida.

Even more interesting is when I singled out the Nina years of 62-63, 64-65, 67-68:

Seeing warmth in the Pac NW kinda defies what you normally see during a Nina winter. I assume a +PNA/-NAO is the reason behind this?

DJF precip was below normal across the NE / MA / MW regardless of what years I pulled. I believe this is caused by a suppressed storm track with strong blocking.

I don't know enough to say with any confidence that this winter could be similar to what we saw in the 60's but there are at least some indications that shows it's possible.

[okie333]

Even more interesting is when I singled out the Nina years of 62-63, 64-65, 67-68:

Seeing warmth in the Pac NW kinda defies what you normally see during a Nina winter. I assume a +PNA/-NAO is the reason behind this?

DJF precip was below normal across the NE / MA / MW regardless of what years I pulled. I believe this is caused by a suppressed storm track with strong blocking.

I don't know enough to say with any confidence that this winter could be similar to what we saw in the 60's but there are at least some indications that shows it's possible.

Result looks oddly like my analog set, which is very largely AO/NAO based:

Every analog but 2010-2011, 1917-1918, and 1898-1899 was based on the list of years where the summer AO and NAO were both negative for all 3 months (that is, all 6 values). The summer AO has a +.35 correlation to its value the following winter, and the NAO, despite its lower +.1 correlation, was so low this summer that it has to be factored in. 2010-2011 was added in because the pattern has had a persistence to it recently, also there will be a La Niña again, though not as strong. Solar activity is still fairly low as well, likely causing the persistence to some extent. A +QBO causes LESS blocking, not more... at least at 30 mb, so I honestly don't see why there will be a higher AO this winter than last. The lingering +QBO at 50 mb should last long enough to keep the SE ridge very week or keep it from forming altogether, while the -QBO at 30 mb should allow blocking (as in the AO... NAO may not be quite as negative as last winter due to a summer Atlantic SST configuration that's not as good as last winter's, despite still bring favorable) to form more readily than last winter. 1917-1918 and 1898-1899 were added (and double-weighted) because they are both second-year weak/mod La Niñas in a long-term low solar period. I didn't really look at 1898-1899's winter temps until after I decided to double-weight it, honest.

[Bob Chill]

Result looks oddly like my analog set, which is very largely AO/NAO based:

I did 500mb height maps based on Nina years with -AO/NAO and -PDO and compared them to other Nina years. It was very interesting. Heights were clearly lower in the NE/MW/MA compared to many recent Nina's (with the exception of last year of course). Heights had a very +PNA / -NAO look for sure and that is anti Nina.

I know there is a heck of a lot more to it than just looking at a couple of indexes but It's hard to deny the consistent composites showing a cold east half of the Country.

We'll have a great feel for what's coming up once we approach December. Every single analog I have used has shown below to much below normal temps for the E half of the country in Dec.

[okie333]

I did 500mb height maps based on Nina years with -AO/NAO and -PDO and compared them to other Nina years. It was very interesting. Heights were clearly lower in the NE/MW/MA compared to many recent Nina's (with the exception of last year of course). Heights had a very +PNA / -NAO look for sure and that is anti Nina.

I know there is a heck of a lot more to it than just looking at a couple of indexes but It's hard to deny the consistent composites showing a cold east half of the Country.

We'll have a great feel for what's coming up once we approach December. Every single analog I have used has shown below to much below normal temps for the E half of the country in Dec.

Yes, and the later part of that 1898-1899 analog could come into play around New Year's if my indicators are correct.

[TalcottWx]

Last time I checked, this was an open, free forum for a debate of various weather issues, by meteorologists from different opinion sides.I maybe wrong on this statement. Just because you don't agree with a particular met opinion, or their view being presented by anyone is not a reason to ban them. That idea is precisely why I read this board. I look forward to different ideas about the weather. Hope this doesn't change.Some of the most radical ideas have proven to be accurrate in time following the preentation of the ideas.

Keep following Henry M and posting KMA/nogaps forecasts because of your freedom to exercise your rights on the board. It will definitely bring your forecasts into the next level of the ****ter.

[violinist]

Keep following Henry M and posting KMA/nogaps forecasts because of your freedom to exercise your rights on the board. It will definitely bring your forecasts into the next level of the ****ter.

well since I dont post any of the above, I dont have much to worry about. do I ??? Nor do I forecast anything, so your statement is way overboard.

[marked8]

Problem is, Henry M. is generally a horrible met to follow. The well-informed know this, and they know better than to post Henry's (or JB's or DT's or LC's) maps without any purpose other than to mock it.

After the debacle of a few years ago most ordinary people know about his forecasts as well. The post of his forecast generated discussion in a thread that was nearly dead and differing viewpoints is what I wanted to see, precisely because I know his history.

[Ellinwood]

After the debacle of a few years ago most ordinary people know about his forecasts as well. The post of his forecast generated discussion in a thread that was nearly dead and differing viewpoints is what I wanted to see, precisely because I know his history.

What value does adding a forecast have when no one considers it to be useful?

[aldie 22]

I eagerly anticipate winter every year....you win some you lose some but to me winter is where it's at....I can't wait until we are tracking that first snow regardless of how big....I simply love to see snow falling from the sky.

[brad1551]

I have read a bunch on this years winter. From what I have read are not blogs or wishcasting reports. I have read true reports from true Metoroligist . Northern Va will not be in a snow bubble this year. This year will be a weak La Nina. I have heard moderate as well but most of those predictions have been shot down. Calling for below average temps. As well as well above average snow fall. Warm air will stay along the coast and not the brutal cold like last year. I have read in most cases that is good for snow lovers. Keeps the coastal storms from going out to sea. More hugging the coast instead more snow inland. Unlike last year were they stayed farther of the coast and pound Philly on up to Maine. I personally do not care much for snow and the cold. This year I have a funny feeling Northern Va will be paid back for all of last years close calls. I hope not but I sure do have the feeling of a snowy cold winter. Will see right?

[brad1551]

I eagerly anticipate winter every year....you win some you lose some but to me winter is where it's at....I can't wait until we are tracking that first snow regardless of how big....I simply love to see snow falling from the sky.

[brad1551]

I have that feeling if you like snow unlike me . You will be a very happy person this year. I will hate having to shovel every week or every other weeks big dig out. Remember what I wrote you because you will remember what I said. Big snow this year. I wish I could say warm and dry winter.

[EastCoast NPZ]

I eagerly anticipate winter every year....you win some you lose some but to me winter is where it's at....I can't wait until we are tracking that first snow regardless of how big....I simply love to see snow falling from the sky.

[ThePhotoGuy]

I eagerly anticipate winter every year....you win some you lose some but to me winter is where it's at....I can't wait until we are tracking that first snow regardless of how big....I simply love to see snow falling from the sky.

This.

[marked8]

What value does adding a forecast have when no one considers it to be useful?

1. He is a professional meteorologist

2. At this point everything is still an educated guess

3. Some people over there are actually agreeing with him.

4. The thread was dead and at least people are talking again.

5. It is a differing opinion than some and I wanted to hear what people thought of his ideas.

[Ellinwood]

1. He is a professional meteorologist

2. At this point everything is still an educated guess

3. Some people over there are actually agreeing with him.

4. The thread was dead and at least people are talking again.

5. It is a differing opinion than some and I wanted to hear what people thought of his ideas.

1. So what? What matters is the ability to forecast, not whether or not you've got a met. degree.

2. Correct.

3. It's AccuWx... of course people are going to agree with it over there.

4. Only we're talking about the wrong things.

5. Whether it's different or not is irrelevant... what matters is what went into making the forecast. I could put a map up with a giant +3 to the temps across the entire U.S. and it would be different. And RE: what we thought of his ideas... you've already said that you "know his history" and that "most ordinary people know about his forecasts as well" (in reference to being bad), so you already knew the answer of what people thought about it (or would most likely think about it) before you posted.

[TalcottWx]

well since I dont post any of the above, I dont have much to worry about. do I ??? Nor do I forecast anything, so your statement is way overboard.

Your statement is completely unnecessary about the subject then. Why do you care? Your pretty much sitting here saying people should be able to post the garbage. You might as well be posting it

[marked8]

1. So what? What matters is the ability to forecast, not whether or not you've got a met. degree.

2. Correct.

3. It's AccuWx... of course people are going to agree with it over there.

4. Only we're talking about the wrong things.

5. Whether it's different or not is irrelevant... what matters is what went into making the forecast. I could put a map up with a giant +3 to the temps across the entire U.S. and it would be different. And RE: what we thought of his ideas... you've already said that you "know his history" and that "most ordinary people know about his forecasts as well" (in reference to being bad), so you already knew the answer of what people thought about it (or would most likely think about it) before you posted.

And your Met. degree is from where and where do you work? If not a pro met., how do your ideas on the upcoming winter stand above what other amateurs are forecasting? His forecast was relevant to the area and to the thread. I wanted to hear opinions based on facts and I posted it and will do so again when revised. If a site owner says his ideas are banned for discussion I will happily oblige.

[TalcottWx]

And your Met. degree is from where and where do you work? If not a pro met., how do your ideas on the upcoming winter stand above what other amateurs are forecasting? His forecast was relevant to the area and to the thread. I wanted to hear opinions based on facts and I posted it and will do so again when revised. If a site owner says his ideas are banned for discussion I will happily oblige.

His outlooks are ****ty compared to elllinwoods. I hope you can see the difference