Looking ahead to Winter 2011-2012?

[nj2va]

Actually there was a winter weather advisory for Glacier National Park back in August. I love it when I see that, happens every year.

Oh cool, I missed that one.

[TalcottWx]

Not much of a long range guy to be honest but I'm thinking an average type of winter across the board for the northeast at this time

[Curlyq]

http://www.herald-mail.com/news/hm-winter-weather-depends-on-la-nia-almanack-predicts-20110914,0,2648741.story

HAGERSTOWN— The 2012 Hagers-Town Town and Country Almanack predicts three nor’easters will hit the mid-Atlantic region this winter, but what actually develops will depend on water in the Pacific, O’Toole predicted this coming winter and its three nor’easters — a term for storms that either exit or move north along the East Coast — for the 2012 almanac as if La Niña will disappear, he said.<BR itxtNodeId="368"><BR itxtNodeId="367">“Two years in a row (of La Niña) is very, very unusual,” he said during a recent interview.<BR itxtNodeId="366"><BR itxtNodeId="365">If La Niña does not return, the region will likely face a “pretty wet” winter with average temperatures and an increased likelihood of a more severe winter, with heavier snow in February, he said.<BR itxtNodeId="364"><BR itxtNodeId="363">“If she is the same strength as last winter it will be a repeat of last winter — cold and relatively dry for the first half, wet and mild for the second half,” O’Toole said. “If a stronger La Niña returns it will bode as cold with a fair amount of snow.”<BR itxtNodeId="362"><BR itxtNodeId="361">

[Bob Chill]

I don't put too much stock in pre-1950 data but it is interesting that we haven't had 3 consecutive years of a DJF -NAO since the early 70's. That's quite a long time so the fact that we have just had 3 consecutive years is pretty interesting.

I don't know enough about the cycle to elaborate or bring much to the table other than simple observations. There was a pronounced period of -NAO during the 60's and early 70's. The index has been clearly positive most of the time over the last 30 years. It would be significant if the index averages negative for a 4th consecutive year.

[BethesdaWX]

Pretty unlikely the NAO averages positive, at least as far as DJFM is concerned, imo

[okie333]

I don't put too much stock in pre-1950 data but it is interesting that we haven't had 3 consecutive years of a DJF -NAO since the early 70's. That's quite a long time so the fact that we have just had 3 consecutive years is pretty interesting.

I don't know enough about the cycle to elaborate or bring much to the table other than simple observations. There was a pronounced period of -NAO during the 60's and early 70's. The index has been clearly positive most of the time over the last 30 years. It would be significant if the index averages negative for a 4th consecutive year.

Have you ever thought that it might be the PDO?

[Bob Chill]

Have you ever thought that it might be the PDO?

I have and I'm slowly building my knowledge of the mechanics. I don't feel comfortable posting my thoughts because I just don't have the knowledge base yet.

[Bob Chill]

Although this is outside of my knowledge base, I pulled together some analog years based on ENSO and PDO. It is pretty clear that we were in a long duration -PDO from approximately 1950 to 1980:

Assuming that we are moving back into a long term -PDO cycle (I really can't say we are. Just making an assumption based on the chart above) then pulling the second year Nina winters during the 1950-1980 timeframe makes sense. I pulled these years from ENSO data:

1950-51

1955-56

1974-75

1975-76

Those are the best I can find. When I created temp anomoly composites for those analog years, the winters overall were warmer than average. However, December was very cold and March was average. Jan was a bit warmer than average and Feb was pretty much a torch.

[EastCoast NPZ]

Although this is outside of my knowledge base, I pulled together some analog years based on ENSO and PDO. It is pretty clear that we were in a long duration -PDO from approximately 1950 to 1980:

Assuming that we are moving back into a long term -PDO cycle (I really can't say we are. Just making an assumption based on the chart above) then pulling the second year Nina winters during the 1950-1980 timeframe makes sense. I pulled these years from ENSO data:

1950-51

1955-56

1974-75

1975-76

Those are the best I can find. When I created temp anomoly composites for those analog years, the winters overall were warmer than average. However, December was very cold and March was average. Jan was a bit warmer than average and Feb was pretty much a torch.

meh, fine by me. all things being equal I prefer Dec and Jan snow anyway (stays around longer).

Interesting data, and thnx for sharing.

[Bob Chill]

meh, fine by me. all things being equal I prefer Dec and Jan snow anyway (stays around longer).

Interesting data, and thnx for sharing.

Thanks. I enjoy pulling this stuff together. I'm a weenie though so I defer to Wes and company for the real deal.

I don't think those analog years are really all that great because it's hard to say if we really end up with a Nina and the -NAO/-AO has been quite persistent and that would pretty much change the whole upcoming winter if it continues regardless of ENSO.

There are enough signals pointing towards at least an average winter here. It wouldn't take much for us to have a good winter.

I'm hoping for a neg neutral or really weak Nina combined with a stubborn -NAO/-AO.

[BethesdaWX]

Although this is outside of my knowledge base, I pulled together some analog years based on ENSO and PDO. It is pretty clear that we were in a long duration -PDO from approximately 1950 to 1980:

Assuming that we are moving back into a long term -PDO cycle (I really can't say we are. Just making an assumption based on the chart above) then pulling the second year Nina winters during the 1950-1980 timeframe makes sense. I pulled these years from ENSO data:

1950-51

1955-56

1974-75

1975-76

Those are the best I can find. When I created temp anomoly composites for those analog years, the winters overall were warmer than average. However, December was very cold and March was average. Jan was a bit warmer than average and Feb was pretty much a torch.

I think you need to look at the solar aspect a little closer, the -PDO is one thing but the deeper -NAO's seem to correlate to weaker geomagnetic activity pretty well, (the AP index works there), though NAO data pre-1950 is sketchy at best

[Bob Chill]

I think you need to look at the solar aspect a little closer, the -PDO is one thing but the deeper -NAO's seem to correlate to weaker geomagnetic activity pretty well, (the AP index works there), though NAO data pre-1950 is sketchy at best

I read some stuff about sunspot cycles and the effect on climate. There does seem to be a pretty solid connection. Especially during the maunder minimum and "little iceage".

Trying to put together an analysis based on solar activity, ENSO, PDO, MJO, NAO/AO, and EPO all at once is WAY over my head. I have to break it down in little pieces at a time.

You have any good links for "laymen" research and indexes that I can make sense out of?

[BethesdaWX]

I read some stuff about sunspot cycles and the effect on climate. There does seem to be a pretty solid connection. Especially during the maunder minimum and "little iceage".

Trying to put together an analysis based on solar activity, ENSO, PDO, MJO, NAO/AO, and EPO all at once is WAY over my head. I have to break it down in little pieces at a time.

You have any good links for "laymen" research and indexes that I can make sense out of?

Depends, what do you define as "laymen" research? What I usually do (As you have too), is use the US climate division-plot site, Choosing analogs that match the appropriate Geomagnetic Solar strength, QBO phase, & ENSO first. IMO those are the "key three". Then if possible I break up yrs between the +PDO phase & -PDO phase, as well as the AMO/IOD Sync Phase.

I also use years before 1950 as much as I reasonably can, because beginning 1929 or so the solar activity aspect picked up steam in a hurry, so pre-30's analogs may also work out well.

[marked8]

Boring here today so I thought I would add Henry M's post today to the discussion:

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/meteomadness/story/55224/next-tropical-system-develops-fall-weather-pattern.asp

2. The pattern we are in, to me, is typical of fall, but what I start to look for this time of the year is the winter pattern. Typically, you can start to see how the winter pattern is going to shape up as you go through the months of September and October. As the jet migrates south and gets stronger, it also starts to lock into a specific type of pattern that will continue into winter. The analogy I use is a river of water that starts to curve a bend in the river bend. When the water gets stronger, the bend in the river gets wider as the water erodes the ground. Eventually, the river will stop eroding the ground and the bend becomes permanent. What I am starting to see is the trough axis or the average axis of the trough developing from Michigan to Alabama. If that becomes the position of the trough axis for the winter, it would mean that the storms will once again return to the East coast, and the bulk of the snow will be centered over the Appalachians. I am really not all that excited for a lot of snow west of a line from Chicago to Little Rock. I do see a lot of cold in those areas, but not a lot of snow.

[Yeoman]

Boring here today so I thought I would add Henry M's post today to the discussion:

http://www.accuweath...her-pattern.asp

So take the exact opposite and bet the bank

[snowdude]

In regards to Henry M's post...

I don't really agree completely with that statement for every winter. I have noticed that the Fall pattern and Winter pattern can be completely different. I remember many years we have had Nor'easters developing in September, October, and even November and it's of course rain because it's too warm, but just like a Nor'easter it brings in the cold and heavy precip. Then we hit the winter months and we get no Nor'easters and the pattern is different. It has happened plenty of times. But I do agree, most snow will be along the Appalachians this winter. But decent chances for the cities as well.

[Ellinwood]

The Sept/Oct pattern theory has some merit to it... just looking the 2006-2010 samples, the precip patterns were roughly similar (though 2006 is questionable). However, temperature patterns did not seem to have any significant correlation (and sometimes were completely opposite of each other). The only thing I would glean from the theory is plausible storm tracks based on precip. patterns.

Of course, these are just quick observations from the last 5 years... I'm sure there's research on the subject somewhere on the web.

[SNO]

This is setting up to be a classic I-81 Winter. Those on or East 95 will deal with mostly rain events and the further W you are will be where the mixed precip sets up.

Roanoke to Hagerstown look money...IAD in the game...DCA and BWI agony awaits.

[Ellinwood]

This is setting up to be a classic I-81 Winter. Those on or East 95 will deal with mostly rain events and the further W you are will be where the mixed precip sets up.

Roanoke to Hagerstown look money...IAD in the game...DCA and BWI agony awaits.

EDIT: I also see from your "recent posts" that you put this in the New England forum:

This is setting up to be a classic New England winter...if you like artic cold, bitter winds, and below average snow. Enjoy!

How did you come up with these conclusions?

[SNO]

EDIT: I also see from your "recent posts" that you put this in the New England forum:

How did you come up with these conclusions?

A combination of the Magic 8 Ball and Henry M.

I will wait until March 21st 2012 for verification.

[Bob Chill]

In regards to Henry M's post...

I don't really agree completely with that statement for every winter. I have noticed that the Fall pattern and Winter pattern can be completely different. I remember many years we have had Nor'easters developing in September, October, and even November and it's of course rain because it's too warm, but just like a Nor'easter it brings in the cold and heavy precip. Then we hit the winter months and we get no Nor'easters and the pattern is different. It has happened plenty of times. But I do agree, most snow will be along the Appalachians this winter. But decent chances for the cities as well.

Down here in the MA it always seems like the pattern flips one or 2 times per winter. So, I don't even think having deep troughs in the E and having coastal storms in Sept-Oct is a good thing at all.

I disagree with Henry's post saying that a storm track will stay consistent for months on end. Maybe a pattern locks in for 6-8 weeks tops (at least going by memory) before flipping. Generally speaking, aren't fall patterns almost always different than winter patterns?

As far as most of the snow being in the apps goes, when isn't that the case? I'm just not a fan of Henry M so it's easy to argue and disagree.

[okie333]

A combination of the Magic 8 Ball and Henry M.

I will wait until December 21st 2012 for vindication.

Fixed. Although actually the cold and dry thing might end up being true for the northern states.

[Ellinwood]

A combination of the Magic 8 Ball and Henry M.

I will wait until March 21st 2012 for verification.

So just a Magic 8 Ball then?

[nj2va]

Fixed. Although actually the cold and dry thing might end up being true for the northern states.

We're used to that.

[SNO]

So just a Magic 8 Ball then?

Yep...99% Magic 8 Ball and 1% Henry M...

Forecast Confidence: Very High ...like Bob Marley

[Ellinwood]

Yep...99% Magic 8 Ball and 1% Henry M...

Forecast Confidence: Very High ...like Bob Marley

Thanks for your valuable and worthwhile contribution to this thread.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Thanks for your valuable and worthwhile contribution to this thread.

On a more serious note, I would like to see a winter prediction from you. I don't think I've missed one as I read this thread on a regular basis.

I've come to respect your ideas and thoughts, and would really like to see what you think. Maybe it's too soon, but hopefully you'll post your ideas.

As for the other posts lately....I'll be glad to have an I 81 special.

[Ellinwood]

On a more serious note, I would like to see a winter prediction from you. I don't think I've missed one as I read this thread on a regular basis.

I've come to respect your ideas and thoughts, and would really like to see what you think. Maybe it's too soon, but hopefully you'll post your ideas.

As for the other posts lately....I'll be glad to have an I 81 special.

It's in the main forum:

Will re-post that I'm expecting 90-125% snowfall for the Mid-Atlantic this winter (which would be around 15-21" for DCA).

[okie333]

We're used to that.

Yes, but Virginia isn't a northern state... I was referring to suppression when I said cold and dry.

[WinterWxLuvr]

It's in the main forum: http://www.americanw...precip-forecast

Will re-post that I'm expecting 90-125% snowfall for the Mid-Atlantic this winter (which would be around 15-21" for DCA).

Thanks. I remember seeing it now. Good luck with your call.