Looking ahead to Winter 2011-2012?

[mitchnick]

I was 10 years old in 1959 and remember the snow to rain events that winter...There were a few of them...March was the snowiest month and it snowed on my birthday 3/28...It was a cold and snowless winter...Something we don't see any more...

I was born in 58'. That explains my curse!

[BethesdaWX]

I was 10 years old in 1959 and remember the snow to rain events that winter...There were a few of them...March was the snowiest month and it snowed on my birthday 3/28...It was a cold and snowless winter...Something we don't see any more...

Wasn't 2008-09 kind of cold+snowless? I remember highs in the teens with brutal winds in January, with the ground rock hard. I'd really prefer a 2007-08 repeat to be honest, less biting cold, and more snowfall.

Also January 2008 featured probably the most intense winter windstorm I've ever seen for a 2 hour timeframe, actually got scary.

[EastCoast NPZ]

Look at the storm track and the structure of the storms. Year 2009/10 featured an abnormally low NAO, the track and structure of the QPF field is determined by the pressure gradient somewhat, also how deep the low is, time of year, strength of the ridge out west & the varying differences on a global scale synoptically...don't think of it as "blank" doesn't happen "anymore", no aspect of weather will ever turn out the same, you just need to find the missing link imfo, and there are millions of "missing links". So just accept natural variability.

Very likely (imo) this winter will change your perspective, a tight gradient, yes, often times the MA suffers while the folks North & West Score, or we're on the brink, but in this case we might have a deeper -NAO than we otherwise would due to the solar factor, so whle my opinion means nothing to mother nature....there is that shot that the gradient may set up farther south than we'd be accustomed to in an average scenario (yes, our "averages" are based on a time period [[1950-2008]] where the solar wind/magnetic aspect has been high, and the NAO modulated in ways we haven't seen since the Dalton Minimum).

And I'm really not cold biased, I was fully expecting a blowtorch last winter...so maybe trusting me is a bad idea...

This winter has big-time potential, but part of that "potential" is a massive Screwing in a gradient orientation too far to the north as a result of an unfortunate placing of the block. It is a winter with high bust potential. If solar cycle 25 fails to start, and there is a good chance this is the case, recieving good snows in the M.A. may become a bit easier.....

All very good points. Here's hoping for a deep -NOA.

[Bob Chill]

You're right, that is porn.

I did some more arm chair research last night. I didn't like what I saw. First I pulled all second and third year ninas since 1950. Here is the list:

51-52

55-56

56-57

71-72

74-75

99-00

00-01

Then I pulled a larger set to include years where there was either a neutral/weak (but not classified as a Nina) followed by a nina year and vice verse. Basically any negative enso second year following a negative enso first year. I came with these years:

85-86

89-90

96-97

01-02

08-09

Here is the DJF temp anomoly for the second or third year ninas (classically defined):

Here is the DJF temp anomoly for the larger data set including second year neg enso:

Long story short, We need a -NAO/-AO and +PNA or we are not going to be a happy crew. This may be a season of timing because the cold shots will likely be progressive and not sustained. I don't know much about the EPO and QBO so maybe someone else can chime in and improve on my doubts for a good winter.

I think the good wild card is the long term -AO/-NAO cycle we appear to be in. None of the -AO analog years fit a second year Nina so I assume the ENSO/AO combination we are in is pretty uncommon. This is going to be one tough year to long range forecast the MA winter. Maybe we just have a repeat of last winter but the snowhole moves about 150 miles to the N.

[Ellinwood]

No worries.

[Bob Chill]

No worries.

Sweet. I'm on the Ellinwood train.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Sweet. I'm on the Ellinwood train.

I don't think he likes winter, so his "no worries" worries me.

[mitchnick]

-QBO saves us, trust me

I think in the end, we go at least a little above normal snow, and that's all I care about

as for temps, I don't know nor do I care if we can get 20" of snow+

EDIT: we just need the qbo to drop consistently during the winter; meandering around or just below 0 won't do the trick, so that's the only caveat with my theory

[Ellinwood]

I don't think he likes winter, so his "no worries" worries me.

I probably should have qualified it as "no worries for those who like winter"

I'll just be happy if it's not as cold as last year.

-QBO saves us, trust me

I think in the end, we go at least a little above normal snow, and that's all I care about

as for temps, I don't know nor do I care if we can get 20" of snow+

EDIT: we just need the qbo to drop consistently during the winter; meandering around or just below 0 won't do the trick, so that's the only caveat with my theory

[WinterWxLuvr]

I probably should have qualified it as "no worries for those who like winter"

I'll just be happy if it's not as cold as last year.

Gold. I am now onboard the train as well.

[BethesdaWX]

Not that it matters, but I'm generally not a fan of basing an analog completely off ENSO, look what happened to folks using active sun analogs in 2010-11...

Though not a solid -QBO atm (entrenched), there are still years post-1950 that match up quite well even in the solar aspect, the late 1960's featured some years very close to what we have now

I did some more arm chair research last night. I didn't like what I saw. First I pulled all second and third year ninas since 1950. Here is the list:

51-52

55-56

56-57

71-72

74-75

99-00

00-01

Then I pulled a larger set to include years where there was either a neutral/weak (but not classified as a Nina) followed by a nina year and vice verse. Basically any negative enso second year following a negative enso first year. I came with these years:

85-86

89-90

96-97

01-02

08-09

Here is the DJF temp anomoly for the second or third year ninas (classically defined):

Here is the DJF temp anomoly for the larger data set including second year neg enso:

Long story short, We need a -NAO/-AO and +PNA or we are not going to be a happy crew. This may be a season of timing because the cold shots will likely be progressive and not sustained. I don't know much about the EPO and QBO so maybe someone else can chime in and improve on my doubts for a good winter.

I think the good wild card is the long term -AO/-NAO cycle we appear to be in. None of the -AO analog years fit a second year Nina so I assume the ENSO/AO combination we are in is pretty uncommon. This is going to be one tough year to long range forecast the MA winter. Maybe we just have a repeat of last winter but the snowhole moves about 150 miles to the N.

[BethesdaWX]

-QBO saves us, trust me

I think in the end, we go at least a little above normal snow, and that's all I care about

as for temps, I don't know nor do I care if we can get 20" of snow+

EDIT: we just need the qbo to drop consistently during the winter; meandering around or just below 0 won't do the trick, so that's the only caveat with my theory

-QBO will indirectly pump the SE ridge, though the NAO is often deeper, you get one of those patterns with a consistent storm track, someone is screwed while someone else hits white gold. I'd prefer the -QBO weaker, not entrenched.

Though also with a weaker sun a deeper -NAO may supress the fine-line further south

[Bob Chill]

I read some news articles from the Pac NW basically saying brace for a bad one. Of course this is media hype to some extent based on generalizations but traditionally a nina does favor the W 1/2 of the country. Last year was great because the Rockies got clobbered (the really need the water every year) and many areas of the EC did well in both snow and cold. This is quite uncommon though.

If the PNA oscillates solid pos and solid neg then we have a pretty volitile winter on tap. We'll need a pretty strong -AO/NAO to fight off warmth with a -PNA. Of course, if the PNA is + with a strong -AO/NAO then surpession is probably a problem.

IMO- This winter's snow events may be thread the needle type setups.

[mitchnick]

I read some news articles from the Pac NW basically saying brace for a bad one. Of course this is media hype to some extent based on generalizations but traditionally a nina does favor the W 1/2 of the country. Last year was great because the Rockies got clobbered (the really need the water every year) and many areas of the EC did well in both snow and cold. This is quite uncommon though.

If the PNA oscillates solid pos and solid neg then we have a pretty volitile winter on tap. We'll need a pretty strong -AO/NAO to fight off warmth with a -PNA. Of course, if the PNA is + with a strong -AO/NAO then surpession is probably a problem.

IMO- This winter's snow events may be thread the needle type setups.

I think the NINA won't be that strong.

CFS is going too cold as usual (or too warm when a NINO is imminent)

this ENSO report is from the Aussies and came out 8/31....not that bad at all http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

[mitchnick]

-QBO will indirectly pump the SE ridge, though the NAO is often deeper, you get one of those patterns with a consistent storm track, someone is screwed while someone else hits white gold. I'd prefer the -QBO weaker, not entrenched.

Though also with a weaker sun a deeper -NAO may supress the fine-line further south

that's always a concern to me

being on the warm side of some systems that hit NE and then the northern fringe of southern systems is the 72/73 nightmare

[Kevin Druff]

Over the last few days, I've read that this winter the snow events will come when we "thread the needle" or "the timing has to be right as the cold will be progressive" ... Really? When is that NOT the case in DC/Richmond. Does it every snow just because?

I mean, that's a little like saying you only hit a home run when you "time it right" and "catch the sweet spot"... No ****? Who knew!

[Bob Chill]

I think the NINA won't be that strong.

I don't either. Take a look at 88-90 and compare it to 10-11. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

Pretty similar huh? I think it is possible to have a neg/neutral winter without even going full Nina. Odd of a strong Nina appear very low when looking at the data on the link.

I'm not nearly as good as many other posters but if I had to pull the best match for the upcoming winter, I would say a cooler version of 89-90 isn't a bad call for this upcoming winter. I think DCA got 15.3" of snow that year.

Predicting an avg winter all the way around wouldn't be a bad call.

[BethesdaWX]

that's always a concern to me

being on the warm side of some systems that hit NE and then the northern fringe of southern systems is the 72/73 nightmare

With a SE ridge more prominent, a deeper -NAO and a gradient farther south would be the best scenario IMO. This winter could feature some very deep storms

[Bob Chill]

Over the last few days, I've read that this winter the snow events will come when we "thread the needle" or "the timing has to be right as the cold will be progressive" ... Really? When is that NOT the case in DC/Richmond. Does it every snow just because?

I mean, that's a little like saying you only hit a home run when you "time it right" and "catch the sweet spot"... No ****? Who knew!

There are plenty of times when the cold high to the N is locked in. Regardless of track, models lock in on a snow solution. Well, at least for DCA. When DC/Balt get big snows there is almost always mixing problems down south. Especially towards RIC. RIC does well when its supression city up here.

09-10 is a good example of a great pattern for not worrying too much about timing.

[Ellinwood]

Y'all are looking too hard into it.

[Bob Chill]

Y'all are looking too hard into it.

That's what weenies do!

It's fun to speculate. At least for me anyway. We're just a couple weeks away from the infamous October barrage of 1st guesses.

[nj2va]

That's what weenies do!

It's fun to speculate. At least for me anyway. We're just a couple weeks away from the infamous October barrage of 1st guesses.

NWS national watches/warning map already has the first widespread freeze watches in the upper midwest. Excited to see the first "winter" type of advisory on the map.

[SeanVA]

NWS national watches/warning map already has the first widespread freeze watches in the upper midwest. Excited to see the first "winter" type of advisory on the map.

Actually there was a winter weather advisory for Glacier National Park back in August. I love it when I see that, happens every year.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

I'm thinking 2000-2001 winter repeat.

I'm not throwing in the towel, but you could say I've set my expectations really low for this winter.

[nj2va]

Actually there was a winter weather advisory for Glacier National Park back in August. I love it when I see that, happens every year.

Oh cool, I missed that one.

[TalcottWx]

Not much of a long range guy to be honest but I'm thinking an average type of winter across the board for the northeast at this time

[Curlyq]

http://www.herald-mail.com/news/hm-winter-weather-depends-on-la-nia-almanack-predicts-20110914,0,2648741.story

HAGERSTOWN— The 2012 Hagers-Town Town and Country Almanack predicts three nor’easters will hit the mid-Atlantic region this winter, but what actually develops will depend on water in the Pacific, O’Toole predicted this coming winter and its three nor’easters — a term for storms that either exit or move north along the East Coast — for the 2012 almanac as if La Niña will disappear, he said.<BR itxtNodeId="368"><BR itxtNodeId="367">“Two years in a row (of La Niña) is very, very unusual,” he said during a recent interview.<BR itxtNodeId="366"><BR itxtNodeId="365">If La Niña does not return, the region will likely face a “pretty wet” winter with average temperatures and an increased likelihood of a more severe winter, with heavier snow in February, he said.<BR itxtNodeId="364"><BR itxtNodeId="363">“If she is the same strength as last winter it will be a repeat of last winter — cold and relatively dry for the first half, wet and mild for the second half,” O’Toole said. “If a stronger La Niña returns it will bode as cold with a fair amount of snow.”<BR itxtNodeId="362"><BR itxtNodeId="361">

[Bob Chill]

I don't put too much stock in pre-1950 data but it is interesting that we haven't had 3 consecutive years of a DJF -NAO since the early 70's. That's quite a long time so the fact that we have just had 3 consecutive years is pretty interesting.

I don't know enough about the cycle to elaborate or bring much to the table other than simple observations. There was a pronounced period of -NAO during the 60's and early 70's. The index has been clearly positive most of the time over the last 30 years. It would be significant if the index averages negative for a 4th consecutive year.

[BethesdaWX]

Pretty unlikely the NAO averages positive, at least as far as DJFM is concerned, imo

[okie333]

I don't put too much stock in pre-1950 data but it is interesting that we haven't had 3 consecutive years of a DJF -NAO since the early 70's. That's quite a long time so the fact that we have just had 3 consecutive years is pretty interesting.

I don't know enough about the cycle to elaborate or bring much to the table other than simple observations. There was a pronounced period of -NAO during the 60's and early 70's. The index has been clearly positive most of the time over the last 30 years. It would be significant if the index averages negative for a 4th consecutive year.

Have you ever thought that it might be the PDO?