Ji Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 how much of a disaster is this looking to be. Zwyts on facebook told me that this summer will be considered the ice age in comparison to how warm winter is going to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeRedheads Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 I may need to move up north. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted June 13, 2011 Author Share Posted June 13, 2011 I may need to move up north. Meh. I dont think i can take another snowless winter. Last year we at least had stuff to track....this year?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 I dont think i can take another snowless winter. Last year we at least had stuff to track....this year?? unless you like drought and heat our weather sucks.. get over it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 unless you like drought and heat our weather sucks.. get over it multiple EC canes will save us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 It's only June and you all are already throwing in the towel for next winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 It's only June and you all are already throwing in the towel for next winter? You must be new to this subforum - meet Ji, he cancels winters in October... or in this case, June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 You must be new to this subforum - meet Ji, he cancels winters in October... or in this case, June. I believe he canceled it in July last year... I sense a disturbing trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 I believe he canceled it in July last year... I sense a disturbing trend. Well it wasn't the best of all winters, so I'd give him about an 80% on properly predicting a crappy winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 unless we get an El Nino, which is unlikely, next winter will probably suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 unless we get an El Nino, which is unlikely, next winter will probably suck Every winter sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Every winter sucks. if you don't like winter, then yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 how much of a disaster is this looking to be. Zwyts on facebook told me that this summer will be considered the ice age in comparison to how warm winter is going to be it probably won't be that warm...just wont be much snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 There is really no reason to wait until the fall to make a winter outlook other than to see if there is an unlikely chance an El Nino will develop....we may get some interesting events, but the writing is on the wall....10-12" at DCA and a temp profile like below (I might go a little colder than climo) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 There is really no reason to wait until the fall to make a winter outlook other than to see if there is an unlikely chance an El Nino will develop....we may get some interesting events, but the writing is on the wall....10-12" at DCA and a temp profile like below (I might go a little colder than climo) And if you remove the atypical supertorch that was 1999-00, it makes a bit of a difference. Not necessarily for DC snow, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 There is really no reason to wait until the fall to make a winter outlook other than to see if there is an unlikely chance an El Nino will develop....we may get some interesting events, but the writing is on the wall....10-12" at DCA and a temp profile like below (I might go a little colder than climo) Always a safe bet to go with this type of forecast for around here than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 And if you remove the atypical supertorch that was 1999-00, it makes a bit of a difference. Not necessarily for DC snow, of course. sure!...while you are at it, might as well remove 1951, 1971, and 1974 as well since they were even warmer here than 99-00...let's just include the cold winters in the sample! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 And if you remove the atypical supertorch that was 1999-00, it makes a bit of a difference. Not necessarily for DC snow, of course. Really? Looks about the same when you consider the different scales used. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 sure!...while you are at it, might as well remove 1951, 1971, and 1974 as well since they were even warmer here than 99-00...let's just include the cold winters in the sample! Nationally, 1999-00 was the most atypical winter (for a winter following a first year Nina) of the bunch. I understand you are more concerned with the DC area, but that's the reason I singled that winter out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Really? Looks about the same when you consider the different scales used. It's mainly the northern tier of the country that is affected, the northern plains/Rockies in particular. As seen in the map above, 1999-00 was a huge torch in that area, in complete contrast to pretty much all the other winters in the dataset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Ji cancels winter every year so what makes this any different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 There is really no reason to wait until the fall to make a winter outlook other than to see if there is an unlikely chance an El Nino will develop....we may get some interesting events, but the writing is on the wall....10-12" at DCA and a temp profile like below (I might go a little colder than climo) to keep one's sanity, one must keep the faith 04MAY2011 25.1 0.4 27.0-0.2 27.2-0.5 28.0-0.5 11MAY2011 25.3 0.9 27.0-0.2 27.4-0.4 28.3-0.3 18MAY2011 24.6 0.5 27.0 0.0 27.6-0.2 28.4-0.2 25MAY2011 24.0 0.2 26.8 0.0 27.5-0.2 28.3-0.3 01JUN2011 24.3 0.7 26.8 0.1 27.5-0.1 28.4-0.2 08JUN2011 24.2 0.9 26.7 0.2 27.5 0.0 28.4-0.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 My take on long range forecasting the winter is this .... 1. It must be incredibly hard to forecast temp anomoly correctly at long range. Last year, almost all forecasts were calling for above normal early transitioning to cold at the end. If I remember correctly it was just about the opposite. 2. Trying to forecast snowfall amounts must be even harder. It just seems that snowfall is so dependent upon the storm to storm variables that it would be hard to pin that down. In the NoVa area last year, we had a so-so winter, but came very close to a good one. If the Christmas storm is a mere 50-75 miles west, if the Jan 11 storm doesn't squirt just north of us at the last minute and if the mid Feb storm is snow and not sleet, we'd have a much different opinion of last year. I guess I would have to say that what I'm thinking is that even under less than ideal conditions, surprises do happen. Give me the cold, let's take our chances with individual snow events. We aren't out of it yet, regardless of what the conditions might be right now and looking forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 We had a LOT of potential last year, but things never really came together. It easily could've been a 20" season at RIC.....if only the Christmas storm delivered and the other in mid February just before the big warm up. At least we did have the persistent cold in December and January. Yeah, we had 2009-10, but this area is still waiting for the big one. Richmond hasn't had an official 15"+ snowstorm since February 11, 1983. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Tough luck for the MA. Maybe it will be better for the '12-'13 winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Tough luck for the MA. Maybe it will be better for the '12-'13 winter... I'll remember this one in about 7 months. Who am I kidding. I'll be lucky to remember it tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 My take on long range forecasting the winter is this .... 1. It must be incredibly hard to forecast temp anomoly correctly at long range. Last year, almost all forecasts were calling for above normal early transitioning to cold at the end. If I remember correctly it was just about the opposite. 2. Trying to forecast snowfall amounts must be even harder. It just seems that snowfall is so dependent upon the storm to storm variables that it would be hard to pin that down. In the NoVa area last year, we had a so-so winter, but came very close to a good one. If the Christmas storm is a mere 50-75 miles west, if the Jan 11 storm doesn't squirt just north of us at the last minute and if the mid Feb storm is snow and not sleet, we'd have a much different opinion of last year. I guess I would have to say that what I'm thinking is that even under less than ideal conditions, surprises do happen. Give me the cold, let's take our chances with individual snow events. We aren't out of it yet, regardless of what the conditions might be right now and looking forward. I think at this point we can only broad brush and it is still guesswork ENSO is by far the biggest factor.....all winter long we were told how La Nina was being neutered by the -NAO, yet we had nothing to show for it but cold and dry and at the end of the day the typical precip anomalies associated with LA Nina were evident... Since 1950, we have had 18 20" seasons at DCA 10 El Ninos 5 Neutral (all followed El Nino or Neutral Phases) 3 Weak La Ninas (all followed El Nino or neutral phases) 0/18 were Ninas/Neutrals following a cold phase ENSO....NONE Now to get subjective for second, a 15" winter at DCA isn't a death knell...It usually means somewhat to much more in the surrounding DC/BALT metro and outlying areas and can include a K/U storm and some other decent ones.....But unless we get an El Nino, I am hardly gung ho on a big winter when we have had 18/18 examples of fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 and BTW...misses aren't close calls because models suckered us...models have absolutely nothing to do with whether a storm missed or not....it is only a near miss, if a 50-ish mile shift would have changed things...neither DEC 26 or Jan 11 were remotely close to giving us a significant snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 "La NIna is NOT a factor. It's all about the NAO!!!!!!" yeah right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 It has to better than last year, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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