Ji Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 how much of a disaster is this looking to be. Zwyts on facebook told me that this summer will be considered the ice age in comparison to how warm winter is going to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeRedheads Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 I may need to move up north. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted June 13, 2011 Author Share Posted June 13, 2011 I may need to move up north. Meh. I dont think i can take another snowless winter. Last year we at least had stuff to track....this year?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 I dont think i can take another snowless winter. Last year we at least had stuff to track....this year?? unless you like drought and heat our weather sucks.. get over it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 unless you like drought and heat our weather sucks.. get over it multiple EC canes will save us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 It's only June and you all are already throwing in the towel for next winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 It's only June and you all are already throwing in the towel for next winter? You must be new to this subforum - meet Ji, he cancels winters in October... or in this case, June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 You must be new to this subforum - meet Ji, he cancels winters in October... or in this case, June. I believe he canceled it in July last year... I sense a disturbing trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 I believe he canceled it in July last year... I sense a disturbing trend. Well it wasn't the best of all winters, so I'd give him about an 80% on properly predicting a crappy winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 unless we get an El Nino, which is unlikely, next winter will probably suck Every winter sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 There is really no reason to wait until the fall to make a winter outlook other than to see if there is an unlikely chance an El Nino will develop....we may get some interesting events, but the writing is on the wall....10-12" at DCA and a temp profile like below (I might go a little colder than climo) And if you remove the atypical supertorch that was 1999-00, it makes a bit of a difference. Not necessarily for DC snow, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 There is really no reason to wait until the fall to make a winter outlook other than to see if there is an unlikely chance an El Nino will develop....we may get some interesting events, but the writing is on the wall....10-12" at DCA and a temp profile like below (I might go a little colder than climo) Always a safe bet to go with this type of forecast for around here than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 And if you remove the atypical supertorch that was 1999-00, it makes a bit of a difference. Not necessarily for DC snow, of course. Really? Looks about the same when you consider the different scales used. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 sure!...while you are at it, might as well remove 1951, 1971, and 1974 as well since they were even warmer here than 99-00...let's just include the cold winters in the sample! Nationally, 1999-00 was the most atypical winter (for a winter following a first year Nina) of the bunch. I understand you are more concerned with the DC area, but that's the reason I singled that winter out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Really? Looks about the same when you consider the different scales used. It's mainly the northern tier of the country that is affected, the northern plains/Rockies in particular. As seen in the map above, 1999-00 was a huge torch in that area, in complete contrast to pretty much all the other winters in the dataset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Ji cancels winter every year so what makes this any different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 There is really no reason to wait until the fall to make a winter outlook other than to see if there is an unlikely chance an El Nino will develop....we may get some interesting events, but the writing is on the wall....10-12" at DCA and a temp profile like below (I might go a little colder than climo) to keep one's sanity, one must keep the faith 04MAY2011 25.1 0.4 27.0-0.2 27.2-0.5 28.0-0.5 11MAY2011 25.3 0.9 27.0-0.2 27.4-0.4 28.3-0.3 18MAY2011 24.6 0.5 27.0 0.0 27.6-0.2 28.4-0.2 25MAY2011 24.0 0.2 26.8 0.0 27.5-0.2 28.3-0.3 01JUN2011 24.3 0.7 26.8 0.1 27.5-0.1 28.4-0.2 08JUN2011 24.2 0.9 26.7 0.2 27.5 0.0 28.4-0.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 My take on long range forecasting the winter is this .... 1. It must be incredibly hard to forecast temp anomoly correctly at long range. Last year, almost all forecasts were calling for above normal early transitioning to cold at the end. If I remember correctly it was just about the opposite. 2. Trying to forecast snowfall amounts must be even harder. It just seems that snowfall is so dependent upon the storm to storm variables that it would be hard to pin that down. In the NoVa area last year, we had a so-so winter, but came very close to a good one. If the Christmas storm is a mere 50-75 miles west, if the Jan 11 storm doesn't squirt just north of us at the last minute and if the mid Feb storm is snow and not sleet, we'd have a much different opinion of last year. I guess I would have to say that what I'm thinking is that even under less than ideal conditions, surprises do happen. Give me the cold, let's take our chances with individual snow events. We aren't out of it yet, regardless of what the conditions might be right now and looking forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 We had a LOT of potential last year, but things never really came together. It easily could've been a 20" season at RIC.....if only the Christmas storm delivered and the other in mid February just before the big warm up. At least we did have the persistent cold in December and January. Yeah, we had 2009-10, but this area is still waiting for the big one. Richmond hasn't had an official 15"+ snowstorm since February 11, 1983. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Tough luck for the MA. Maybe it will be better for the '12-'13 winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Tough luck for the MA. Maybe it will be better for the '12-'13 winter... I'll remember this one in about 7 months. Who am I kidding. I'll be lucky to remember it tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 It has to better than last year, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 It has to better than last year, right? Last winter was fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Last winter was fine. Cold/dry.. Warm/wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Cold/dry.. Warm/wet Put them in layers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 dec 26 wasnt a near miss? i dont remember jan 11... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 I'd probably go with something similar to zwyts' outlook right now but I did text him that I'd add about 4-6" to DCA's snowfall if we went warm neutral for ENSO rather than cold neutral. Just a gut feeling as warm neutral actually has some polarizing results for DCA...some years have been horrible like '58-'59 and '90-'91 and others were pretty good like '79-'80 and '53-'54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Analogs that might be useful are 1967-68, 1974-75, and 2008-09. All were 2nd year Ninas after a Nino, featured the -PDO, the +AMO, and at least 2 of the 3 likely featured the +IOD. 2 of the 3 winters were in a period of lower solar activity as well (2008-09, 1974-75). Of course this assuming the ENSO doesn't revert to neutral instead of a Nina. Past history would argue against that though. But low solar is important regarding the NAO, as is the QBO. QBO DEC/JAN/FEB 1967/68: -7.27 -8.38 -10.21 1974/75: 22.57 -16.70 -15.39 2008-09: 10.46 10.71 12.33 2008/09 is the only year with a +QBO, so it may be an outlier presuming our QBO drops into negative territory. Precipitation data is all confuzzled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 As long as it snows at some point during the winter, I'll be happy. Set the bar low and you all won't be disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 What happened here in 96-97? I was living in CO most of the 90's but I have a possible theory for the EC this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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