coldlover Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Hi i keep hearing about Global Cooling but does anyone think its gonna happen and when? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Hi i keep hearing about Global Cooling but does anyone think its gonna happen and when? As of right now, there has been no cooling. The global climate has remained steady to about .1C increase over the last decade. Eventually there has to be some "cooling" effect taking place, since Earth is always fluctuating between glacial and interglacial periods. When is it going to happen is the biggest question, nobody really knows for sure since there are many theories as to how Earth actually starts the cooling trend. Although there is some proof that global cooling and ice ages happen rapidily, example being the frozen mammoths with food still undigested in their stomachs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Some forecasters think it will happen. Lawrence solomon makes a connection with the tornadoes this year.Some folks think another iceage is coming. http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2011/05/01/lawrence-solomon-tornadoes-could-be-an-omen-of-global-cooling/ http://www.iceagenow.com/Snowbird_snowpack_525_percent_of_normal.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coldlover Posted June 12, 2011 Author Share Posted June 12, 2011 But will this ice age effect South Carolina and give us a much longer winter instead of this short dec-feb winter crap? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 But will this ice age effect South Carolina and give us a much longer winter instead of this short dec-feb winter crap? Not in any of our lifetimes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Hi i keep hearing about Global Cooling but does anyone think its gonna happen and when? Well the only ones shouting out about "mass global cooling" are the Ice Age lunatics that should not be taken seriously (Look at IceAgeNow.com if you don't believe they are crazies), and same goes for those on the opposite spectrum (AKA, Al Gore, for example). But it depends on the time you start your trend if you are looking for cooling, as there has Not been any Statistically Significant cooling yet. Overall since the Satellite era began, we've warmed about 0.35C (UAH RSS mean). However, the Past Decade (overall, not specific yrs), has seen an overall flat-lining trend, neither up nor down. Since 2006, the trend is Negative, (cooling) overall, but that is a very worthless baseline, too short of a timeframe, and is not worth mentioning unless you're comparing trend lines short term. Many people here claim that "removing ENSO" results in a warming trend, but unfortunately, ENSO is just one aspect of many that would have to be removed... this includes changes in Global Cloud Cover... the most uncertain, potentially powerful, and truly unmeasurable driver we know of.... Large enough to where changes in Cloud Cover could explain our warming trend over the past 300 years, which would indeed make some sense given the Profile of the warming seen (Surface Faster, LT slower). There are also those here who claim Satellite Measurements to be "wrong" based off of a few studies that detail unverifiable methods in calibration with unknown effect on the satellites other than Inter/&/Re-calibration of previous calibrations to correct for these errors..........This is Exactly the reason why the Scientists who are Running UAH/RSS Ignore these studies, because they are not verifiable methods, just a different way to re-calibrate the satellite data in other ways after original error correction had been removed. So overall, we've been flat for the past decade, approximately. As for when Cooling Should begin, I expect it to begin later this decade, barring a major change in Solar Activity. I'm Not as qualified to speak on this matter as the Meteorologists on this board, but many scientists, predominately physicists, tend to hold the skeptical position on "Mass AGW". Some people view 'AGW" as catastrophic" or Nothing... but that is not the Case. CO2 has to have some warming effect on the planet, and it is having a warming effect as it increases, but the extent of that warmig is likely heavily overestimated. This is a result of errors in feedback calculation that are already beginning to show up, and will likely result in the dis-Bandement of the IPCC by year 2020-2025 in my View. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coldlover Posted June 12, 2011 Author Share Posted June 12, 2011 Ok but will this extend winters in South Carolina instead of this short dec-feb winter crap?Thats not much of a winter to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Ok but will this extend winters in South Carolina instead of this short dec-feb winter crap?Thats not much of a winter to me. Ok you live in SOUTH CAROLINA unless you happen to live in the upstate then chances are your winters are going to be warm and rainy vs cold and snowy. Even if you live in the upstate your average snowfall is less than 6" a year. I suggest moving 500 miles or more north or out west above 6000ft if you want long cold snowy winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coldlover Posted June 12, 2011 Author Share Posted June 12, 2011 I dont care if we see snow im asking when this global cooling starts will South Carolina see at least more cold from late nov-mar?I wanna see cold over snow as we dont see much of that anyway.It used to be a lot colder and longer lasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 But will this ice age effect South Carolina and give us a much longer winter instead of this short dec-feb winter crap? Ok but will this extend winters in South Carolina instead of this short dec-feb winter crap?Thats not much of a winter to me. I dont care if we see snow im asking when this global cooling starts will South Carolina see at least more cold from late nov-mar?I wanna see cold over snow as we dont see much of that anyway.It used to be a lot colder and longer lasting. Persistent, aren't you? Not in any of our lifetimes... It takes AT LEAST a century to see any long-term changes of appreciable value that would lead to a more extended period of cold in SC. You may get an "extended winter" every once in awhile as an anomaly to the normal, but if you're looking for any sort of consistently-cold patterns that last more than a few months, you're sorely mistaken in how the atmosphere works. (All of that is of course banking on the thought that the Earth could/will get appreciably colder within the next century... good luck with that) SOLUTION: Move north... like WAY north. At LEAST into central Pennsylvania's latitude. That's the only way you're going to get a consistently-longer stretch of winter cold. Now stop asking. ----- EDIT: For your reference, here's the climo. stats for Florence and North Myrtle Beach (the two closest locations to Conway, which is where you said you lived in the other thread): Florence, SC: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ilm/climate/records/FLOrecordsNormals.htm North Myrtle Beach, SC: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ilm/climate/records/CRErecordsNormals.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 I dont care if we see snow im asking when this global cooling starts will South Carolina see at least more cold from late nov-mar?I wanna see cold over snow as we dont see much of that anyway.It used to be a lot colder and longer lasting. Move to Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coldlover Posted June 12, 2011 Author Share Posted June 12, 2011 Hey ellinwood dont have to be rude man.I just meant by longer winters is at least a few weeks longer than than just dec-early feb.I mean more cold in march and way more in feb.I wasnt meaning 6 months down south of cold.If you were gonna be rude then why bother answering? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coldlover Posted June 12, 2011 Author Share Posted June 12, 2011 Also i wasnt being rude when i said i dont care if i see snow meaning i prefer cold over snow.Wow not a nice way to welcome someone new here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Hey ellinwood dont have to be rude man.I just meant by longer winters is at least a few weeks longer than than just dec-early feb.I mean more cold in march and way more in feb.I wasnt meaning 6 months down south of cold.If you were gonna be rude then why bother answering? You asked a question about global cooling, it got answered. You asked another question pertaining to SC, it got answered (kind of in Bethesda's answer (HINT: global cooling implies longer wintry temperatures), and also by my more simplistic "not in our lifetime" answer from me). Then you asked the same question. And you also asked your SC question in a NEW topic on another part of the forum for some reason. At no point have you presented data that would suggest what you're saying about SC's wintry temperatures to be factual, rather than "it feels like our winters are shorter." Neither did you specify what year or range of years where the longer period of colder temperatures ended, which would at least give others a baseline to help you with your question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coldlover Posted June 12, 2011 Author Share Posted June 12, 2011 Ok the last 3 years winter seems to have ended way early.Like say 2009 was late feb,2010 early mar,and 2011 early feb.Just seems early to me.We used to have winters that went thru a lot of march and sometimes into april. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Ok the last 3 years winter seems to have ended way early.Like say 2009 was late feb,2010 early mar,and 2011 early feb.Just seems early to me.We used to have winters that went thru a lot of march and sometimes into april. The stats for the last three years in your area... ----- Winter 2010-2011: Nov 16-30 was 3-5 degrees above normal Dec 1 - Jan 31 was 3-5 degrees below normal Feb 1 - Mar 15 was 2-3 degrees above normal Mar 16-31 was 1-2 degrees above normal Total temp. anomaly from Nov 16 through Mar 31 is 1-2 degrees below normal This would indicate that, while cooler than normal, the period of cooler temperatures was shorter than normal. ----- Winter 2009-2010: Nov 16-30 was 2-3 degrees above normal Dec 1 - Jan 31 was 2-3 degrees below normal Feb 1 - Mar 15 was 3-5 degrees below normal Mar 16-31 was near normal Total temp. anomaly from Nov 16 through Mar 31 is 2-3 degrees below normal This would indicate that the end of the cooler temperatures was about normal. ----- Winter 2008-2009: Nov 16-30 was approx. 8-12 degrees below normal Dec 1 - Jan 31 was 1-2 degrees above normal Feb 1 - Mar 15 was near normal Mar 16-31 was near normal Total temp. anomaly from Nov 16 through Mar 31 is near normal This would indicate that, while the core of the winter was slightly milder, the onset of the cold came early and the end of the winter was about normal. ----- Conclusion: While you're inkling may be correct for the winter that just ended, the two winters previous to last winter have NOT been shorter than normal. So, the answer to your question of "when will SC get longer winters like we used to have?" is that you ARE getting regular winters, along with yearly variations that would not indicate any sort of long-term trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clifford Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 There is some confusing terminology that is thrown around. "Ice Age" "Little Ice Age" "Glacial Period" "Interglacial Period" Technically we are still in the ice age that began about 34 million years ago with the glaciation of Antarctica and Greenland, and continues with persistent glaciers in both continents. However, many people equate Ice Age with the glacial periods which brought glaciers across most of North American and temperatures as much as 8-10°C below our current temperatures, currently coming and going with about 90,000 years of cold weather and 10 to 15,000 years of warmer weather called an interglacial period. Little Ice Age is a term used to designate a period from the mid 1600's to early 1700's with below normal temperatures corresponding to a period of low solar activity called the Maunder Minimum. There are some predictions that we could enter another period of low solar activity similar to the Maunder Minimum and Little Ice Age similar to what occurred in the late 1600's. It is still a little early to predict such an event, but if it should occur, it could happen very quickly, and last for at least several decades. The current Holocene interglacial period began somewhere around 12,000 years ago. A purely statistical analysis would indicate that most of the interglacial periods are less than about 15,000 years long, and that the Holocene could end any time. Current theories including Milankovitch Cycles do not seem to fully account for the glacial/interglacial cycles, and are insufficient to predict the end of the current interglacial period. However, when talking about events occurring over thousands or tens of thousands of years, it would be naive to expect the changes to occur in our own lifetimes. But, these forces should not be ignored when predicting the climate over the next few hundred to few thousand years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 But will this ice age effect South Carolina and give us a much longer winter instead of this short dec-feb winter crap? welcome to the board...don't let trolls like ellinwood discourage you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Not again...I just keep finding the same threads started by the same person asking the same question http://www.americanw...067-sc-weather/ http://www.americanw...-winters-again/ For some reason I see 5 posts in coldlovers future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coldlover Posted June 12, 2011 Author Share Posted June 12, 2011 No dont worry i wont post anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherRusty Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 If we consider the relative strengths in radiative forcing produced by variations in intrinsic solar radiation and orbital/ axial tilt, nothing comes remotely close to equaling that given by the growing CO2 concentration. There will be no long term cooling trend in the decades ahead as a result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Ok the last 3 years winter seems to have ended way early.Like say 2009 was late feb,2010 early mar,and 2011 early feb.Just seems early to me.We used to have winters that went thru a lot of march and sometimes into april. Your question about South Carolina, and it's shocking lack of cold and snow is an important one. Keep at it, and try asking this same question across every sub forum. You'll be rewarded for your persistence, I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coldlover Posted June 14, 2011 Author Share Posted June 14, 2011 Hey FrederickWX ill do that u Jerk!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LehighValleyBlizzard Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 "Little Ice Age is a term used to designate a period from the mid 1600's to early 1700's with below normal temperatures corresponding to a period of low solar activity called the Maunder Minimum." It extended to the early 1800s by most accounts, tail end 1850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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