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June 13-16th Severe Weather Threat


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I wondered if that cell would produce as it appeared a weak boundary gushed out of the storms as they were over Clinton County in Eastern Iowa. That little boundary was very, very weak appearing on radar but it was there and as soon as that cell hit it, bam, tornado. Plus its a little humid with all the rain we've had so the LCL on that little storm was probably fairly low so low level enhanced helicity with that boundary would be able to get a circulation down to the ground pretty efficiently. Hopefully just minor damage and no big deal, EF1 type stuff...

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Turned out to be a pretty interesting evening. Had a feeling the supercell was heading in this general direction when it was still up near Maquoketa Iowa. So jumped in the car and headed out just west of town where it's flat and open. Started shooting a time lapse and waited for it to move in. For a low-topped supercell it had pretty decent structure. Mid-level rotation was very impressive. The low-level wind fields weren't very impressive, and there really wasn't much surface based cape to work with. Eventually the storm dropped a few weak tornadoes. One near Fenton, and the other near and in Erie. I think I MAY have caught a distant glimpse of the Fenton tornado, but can't be sure. It would be in the 5-6 second range on my time lapse video.

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Never really noticed the radar hole in Eastern/Southeastern Montana until the line of storms tonight when I was trying to check things out. Obviously the population density in that area is quite low, but that hole terrible - barely see anything from any of the adjacent radar sites.

That radar hole is AWFUL. I forecasted a few years for a private company in ND--and we forecasted SD/ND/MT. What a headache that radar hole presented--both winter and summer.

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Turned out to be a pretty interesting evening. Had a feeling the supercell was heading in this general direction when it was still up near Maquoketa Iowa. So jumped in the car and headed out just west of town where it's flat and open. Started shooting a time lapse and waited for it to move in. For a low-topped supercell it had pretty decent structure. Mid-level rotation was very impressive. The low-level wind fields weren't very impressive, and there really wasn't much surface based cape to work with. Eventually the storm dropped a few weak tornadoes. One near Fenton, and the other near and in Erie. I think I MAY have caught a distant glimpse of the Fenton tornado, but can't be sure. It would be in the 5-6 second range on my time lapse video.

That is some nice structure, with the rotation clearly seen on the time lapse...

Nice video.

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That is some nice structure, with the rotation clearly seen on the time lapse...

Nice video.

Thanks man. Kind of kicking myself that I spent all that time shooting pics and video and didn't see the actual tornado, but it sounds like it was pretty weak anyway. Definitely glad for that as it was a bit too close for comfort.

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Thanks man. Kind of kicking myself that I spent all that time shooting pics and video and didn't see the actual tornado, but it sounds like it was pretty weak anyway. Definitely glad for that as it was a bit too close for comfort.

I would be too, especially with it being in/near your town.

At least you caught that nice time lapse of it.

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Tomorrow scares me across western NE. It is going to be a busy shift tomorrow evening.

Friends,

Should I go out and chase this one?

Cheyenne is not that far for me. I don't want to go to Ogalalla, because that's just way too far. I also don't want to have my car dented by hail.

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Turned out to be a pretty interesting evening. Had a feeling the supercell was heading in this general direction when it was still up near Maquoketa Iowa. So jumped in the car and headed out just west of town where it's flat and open. Started shooting a time lapse and waited for it to move in. For a low-topped supercell it had pretty decent structure. Mid-level rotation was very impressive. The low-level wind fields weren't very impressive, and there really wasn't much surface based cape to work with. Eventually the storm dropped a few weak tornadoes. One near Fenton, and the other near and in Erie. I think I MAY have caught a distant glimpse of the Fenton tornado, but can't be sure. It would be in the 5-6 second range on my time lapse video.

damn, i'm late but that was a great video, nice colors, structure, rotation. awesome job.

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Friends,

Should I go out and chase this one?

Cheyenne is not that far for me. I don't want to go to Ogalalla, because that's just way too far. I also don't want to have my car dented by hail.

I would be ready to go. But one thing to worry as you head east is the precipitable waters are skyhigh through the roof in western NE and there is good evidence that this will quickly turn into a large cluster of heavy precip storms with embedded supercell structures. Probably not fun to chase. MCS development is likely the farther into NE. SPC doesn't outline it much but you may be better off staying in your backyard and either going N or maybe even heading S along the Palmer Divide where storm motions are slower and things will be more discrete. Seems like a good bet initiation will be along the preferred peaks west of CO Springs with propagation possibly along the Divide.

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I would be ready to go. But one thing to worry as you head east is the precipitable waters are skyhigh through the roof in western NE and there is good evidence that this will quickly turn into a large cluster of heavy precip storms with embedded supercell structures. Probably not fun to chase. MCS development is likely the farther into NE. SPC doesn't outline it much but you may be better off staying in your backyard and either going N or maybe even heading S along the Palmer Divide where storm motions are slower and things will be more discrete. Seems like a good bet initiation will be along the preferred peaks west of CO Springs with propagation possibly along the Divide.

I definitely don't want to get in a situation where I have no choice but to drive through a hail core of 1" or greater hail. Repairing your car is not cool. In fact, I've had to repair my car for hail twice, and the hail was right here, in the city limits of Fort Collins.

My original thought was to storm chase Wyoming, close to where my virtual chase position is. I think I might stay home.

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Early info from LOT concerning the possible tornado(s) yesterday...

http://www.crh.noaa....=69660&source=0

Based on the damage reports and eyewitness accounts along the path, I will be really surprised if they don't confirm a touchdown. It's a little puzzling why they initially reported no damage.

There's a pic of what appears to be a funnel here:

http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2011/06/16/south-suburbs-clean-up-after-tornadic-storm/

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I definitely don't want to get in a situation where I have no choice but to drive through a hail core of 1" or greater hail. Repairing your car is not cool. In fact, I've had to repair my car for hail twice, and the hail was right here, in the city limits of Fort Collins.

My original thought was to storm chase Wyoming, close to where my virtual chase position is. I think I might stay home.

Nice looking high based LP riding the Palmer Divide, I would have to think it looks nice in terms of structure. Looks better on the higher scans.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS

829 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTH CENTRAL COMANCHE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

SOUTHERN KIOWA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 900 PM CDT

* AT 824 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED

VERY STRONG ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE TORNADO 9 MILES

SOUTHEAST OF MULLINVILLE. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST

AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

HAVILAND...WELLSFORD...WILMORE AND BELVIDERE.

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Well that's not nice of them!

--

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS

1018 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

KSC113-159-169-170345-

/O.CON.KICT.SV.W.0228.000000T0000Z-110617T0345Z/

SALINE KS-RICE KS-MCPHERSON KS-

1018 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MCPHERSON...

RICE AND SALINE COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM CDT...

AT 1015 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE

PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH FROM COLLAPSING

THUNDERSTORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

MCPHERSON...SALINA...INMAN...MARQUETTE...BROOKVILLE...LINDSBORG...

GALVA...ROXBURY...ASSARIA...CANTON...SMOLAN...GYPSUM...

MOUNDRIDGE...NEW CAMBRIA...GLENDALE...MCPHERSON AIRPORT...

BRIDGEPORT AND SALINA AIRPORT.

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