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June 13-16th Severe Weather Threat


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Tons of damage around Norman, many people, including spotters say it was a tornado.

Not sure, kind of doubt it was a tornado, possibly really strong straight line winds though. 75+ is a possibility. Around 24,000 without power.

NWS will probably survey it.

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report from Norman (no baseball size hail):

Mostly pea to marble size hail with

the occasional 1". I measured a couple of flat disks to 1.25" and one to

1.5".

As a complete aside, this little event is the only thing keeping me from jumping out of my skin for game seven. I loved that Horton was able to make it to the game in Boston.

And to steer things back on topic, cell in Missouri is complete with a SVR now too.

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Another sneaky cell west of Creston, IA starting to rotate in the lower levels too. The Iowa cells are riding along the northern edge of the best parameters.

I like the cell near Creston... should be severe warned any second one would think even though it just lost a tiny bit of organization. It was a splitter. The couplet near Melrose was pretty tight for a while, but appears to be losing organization. Could be cycling, who knows.

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WWUS53 KEAX 150346

SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

1046 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

MOC115-121-150400-

/O.CON.KEAX.TO.W.0047.000000T0000Z-110615T0400Z/

LINN MO-MACON MO-

1046 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN MACON AND

NORTHEASTERN LINN COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI UNTIL 1100 PM

CDT...

AT 1041 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS

TORNADO WAS LOCATED 9 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF BROOKFIELD...MOVING

NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...PING PONG BALL SIZE

HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

NEW BOSTON AND ETHEL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN

INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID

WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE

CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

1059 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTH CENTRAL ADAIR COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI...

NORTHWESTERN MACON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 1130 PM CDT

* AT 1045 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A LARGE CONE

TORNADO NEAR JOHNSTOWN. THIS TORNADO IS 13 MILES NORTH OF

BUCKLIN...OR 18 MILES NORTHEAST OF BROOKFIELD. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED

THIS TORNADO MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

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Damage in Norman looks similar in magnitude to what happened with the 20 August downburst last year, but much more widespread. Driving around town tonight, the smell of damaged trees permeates the air, which is something I've only experienced with tornadoes in the past. The east side Wal-Mart had the glass portions of its roof taken out (with mass chaos ensuing inside immediately after, as you can imagine), and likely has a lot of merchandise damage due to the torrent of rain and hail that followed.

I had headed W and intercepted the storm before it reached OUN, and witnessed some hail that was probably in the 1.50-2.00" range near Newcastle accompanying the 60+ mph winds. It was fascinating to watch the high-based storms train over the same general area and produce visible downbursts in every case.

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KIRK radar desperately needed...we are adding radars to the Washington coast yet a decently populated and very tornado-prone area of the country can't get one...really...

It's baffling, I mean Northern Missouri/Southern Iowa isn't exactly no man's land. I mean there is a decent number of people in those areas. Kirksville would be a perfect location for a radar.

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Related to the Damaging Wind Event in the Memphis Area on Monday (6/13)...MEG released some data this morning from the KOLV AWOS (Olive Branch, MS) which is a Memphis suburb SE of the city.

33ymfbp.png

The AWOS recorded a 50G110...gusts to 110kts (127mph) at 1925z (2:25p). Also notice nearly continuous severe gusts between 1900z and nearly 1945z. The Olive Branch Airport (where the AWOS is) sustained severe damage to several hangars...with airplanes damaged and overturned. KOLV wasn't transmitting the data out at the time Monday (hadn't been for several days prior) so this went unnoticed as the situation was unfolding.

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Epic fail

I really thought we would see a lot of reports from Missouri last night - was convinced of it. Did not do well on that forecast. Going to have to see what went wrong. Lot of the parameters were great. Perhaps not enough forcing. Cap was strong - but it did break in several areas.

There was a thermal ridge at H7 which prevented sustained surface-based initiation south of the WF. The LLJ did kick off some storms but they ended up being elevated north of the front.

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