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June 13-16th Severe Weather Threat


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Its southern neighbor looking pretty healthy too.

It's gonna be interesting watching how these two cells interact with each other over the next hour or two. Since they're maturing around the same time they may stay side by side for awhile. I thought the northern cell would eat the southern one eventually, but the southern cell took off faster than I thought it would.

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It's gonna be interesting watching how these two cells interact with each other over the next hour or two. Since they're maturing around the same time they may stay side by side for awhile. I thought the northern cell would eat the southern one eventually, but the southern cell took off faster than I thought it would.

The southern storm should have the cleaner inflow too.

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The southern storm should have the cleaner inflow too.

If I were chasing, I'd make a beeline for the southern storm. Everyone is up on the northern storm and I like the inflow for the southern storm. As you noted, it is completely unobstructed right now... however, there's not much messing with the northern storm, so its obviously still got great potential as well. These could be too pretty potent supercells very soon.

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Northcentral MO storms having cappage issues?

Certainly appears so. I thought the two cells out front were going to explode and now they both seem to be struggling. I like tail end charlie further NW, but it also has stayed pretty stagnant for a few scans. I wonder if any of the echoes in Southern Iowa may have better luck.

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On a side note, Norman and parts of the OKC Metro is getting rocked with tennis ball to baseball sized hail right now. KOCO is live, and it was slamming the station so hard, you could hardly hear Rick Mitchell talk.

Struggling supercells are way more interesting than baseballs crushing a big metro area.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK

740 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

0737 PM TSTM WND DMG NORMAN 35.22N 97.44W

06/14/2011 CLEVELAND OK NWS EMPLOYEE

NWS EMPLOYEE ESTIMATED 70 MPH WINDS WITH NUMEROUS POWER

POLES DOWN NEAR 12TH AND ROBINSON.

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Struggling supercells are way more interesting than baseballs crushing a big metro area.

Of course storms have to be rotating before they can be considered supercells... just sayin... :) But.. j/k... I know what you meant.

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New Day 1 outlook is out, probs are the same.

FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST IN NRN TO CNTRL MO AND SRN

IA...MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE VALUES

IN THE 2500 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50-55 KT. IN

ADDITION...A 45 TO 55 KT MID-LEVEL JET IS JUXTAPOSED WITH A 30 KT

LOW-LEVEL JET CREATING FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS AND

TORNADOES. AS STORMS BECOME BETTER ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...A

TORNADO THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SRN IA SWD INTO CNTRL MO WHERE AN

ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALSO...MID-LEVEL LAPSE

RATES ARE VERY STEEP AND THIS WILL HELP MAKE LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH

THE MORE INTENSE CORES. THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO HAVE A

POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER.

SHORT-TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS

AND MOVE SEWD DOWN THE GRADIENT OF STRONG INSTABILITY INTO WRN IL

AND ERN MO LATE THIS EVENING WHERE A WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY BE

ENHANCED. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXTEND SWWD ACROSS SW MO BUT IS

EXPECTED TO MORE ISOLATED.

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Nice to see you posting here :) Always nice to have another severe weather buff on the boards. We need to meet up on a chase again soon!

Indeed, that was super fun watching that supercell come right to us in Wisconsin. Too bad it didn't drop a 'nader right there with that view we had. You guys were a huge help to us when we were having internet problems. Without you guys, we would have never known that cell was developing.

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The cell southeast of Orient, IA is starting to have a wicked looking hook, but I'm not seeing really any rotation in the lower levels yet. Storm south of Winterset, IA also looks to be getting its act together.

Edit - of course as I say that the Orient cell kind of falls apart and lines up with the other cells. Things in Iowa starting to look a little messy.

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