baroclinic_instability Posted June 14, 2011 Author Share Posted June 14, 2011 I would find it hard to believe there is not a threat for a strong/perhaps very strong tornado in nrn MO/srn IA where the LCLs are lower and there should be excellent low-level shear. I would have gone 10 hatched for tornadoes myself if I were issuing the outlook. Yeah I wouldn't disagree with that at all. Easy to get a little worried with this type of instability (some of these parcels may be ingesting 4500+ MLCAPE) and low level directional turning/low LCL's even in the presence of not the most impressive low/mid level flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 I would find it hard to believe there is not a threat for a strong/perhaps very strong tornado in nrn MO/srn IA where the LCLs are lower and there should be excellent low-level shear. I would have gone 10 hatched for tornadoes myself if I were issuing the outlook. I complety agree. CoD team is heading to Grant City, MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 14, 2011 Author Share Posted June 14, 2011 Some of the latest NAM soundings around Columbia look scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 Some of the latest NAM soundings around Columbia look scary. Based on visible, that effective boundary is making quick headway newd into nrn Missouri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 14, 2011 Author Share Posted June 14, 2011 Based on visible, that effective boundary is making quick headway newd into nrn Missouri. If SPC mesoanalysis is correct, low level CINH is nearly erased over NW MO and to where K*** is and the LCL-LFC RH's are on the increase to the point where dry air entrainment is not an issue. Max convergence there too with the low. I would have to think that area may go first--and shortly here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 60/30 tornado probs on the watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 If SPC mesoanalysis is correct, low level CINH is nearly erased over NW MO and to where K*** is and the LCL-LFC RH's are on the increase to the point where dry air entrainment is not an issue. Max convergence there too with the low. I would have to think that area may go first--and shortly here. I like that area northeast of Kansas City to go first, where that effective front is bulging out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 Our buddy has come out to play... That bullseye is right over my house practically. I don't know if I should be excited or worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 Those two spikes coming from KSTL bug the crap outta me..haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 14, 2011 Author Share Posted June 14, 2011 I like that area northeast of Kansas City to go first, where that effective front is bulging out. Rope cloud on vis now too. Good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 Two small cells near Atlantic, IA up to 50dbz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 Seems like it has been there for a couple of weeks. There was even a thread about the topic. ack Did anyone come to a conclusion as to why it's been going on? That's my home radar and it's been very annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 Did anyone come to a conclusion as to why it's been going on? That's my home radar and it's been very annoying. On dude on youtube claims its HAARP, and that they installed a directional radar..LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 On dude on youtube claims its HAARP, and that they installed a directional radar..LOL lol nice, HAARP is the new scapegoat for everything weather related. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 The towers east of Rock Port Missouri (far northwest corner) look like they have some pretty good height to them on visible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 Tops keep getting higher and higher. Approaching 40k ft with a few of those cells in northwest Missouri. Looks like we're about there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 Looks like something is trying to go to the northeast of Kansas City now. Showing the appearance of a tower on visible, with some weak echoes developing on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 nwschat.weather.gov/NWS St Louis 5: Hi Beau. Sure, the spikes are being caused by 4G wireless internet cell towers that are slightly out of calibration. We're not the only radar that has these spikes...though last time I looked we might be the worst. Technicians from the Radar Operations Center are working on filters for us and the other affected sites. Hopefully we'll have this problem solved in the next 60-90 days. --Jon Thank you for the info! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 Looks like something is trying to go to the northeast of Kansas City now. Showing the appearance of a tower on visible, with some weak echoes developing on radar. Rapidly intensifying cell in Caldwell County...this is probably it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 We've got initiation now near Kansas City. 50 dBZ echoes and tops approaching 40kft, just downwind from greatest theta-e advection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 We've got initiation now near Kansas City. 50 dBZ echoes and tops approaching 40kft, just downwind from greatest theta-e advection. Yeah that cell is just west of effective tornado parameters of 4-5 per SPC MESO. Very isolated cell as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 We've got initiation now near Kansas City. 50 dBZ echoes and tops approaching 40kft, just downwind from greatest theta-e advection. Also initiating NW of St. Joe...this could get nasty soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 nwschat.weather.gov/NWS St Louis 5: Hi Beau. Sure, the spikes are being caused by 4G wireless internet cell towers that are slightly out of calibration. We're not the only radar that has these spikes...though last time I looked we might be the worst. Technicians from the Radar Operations Center are working on filters for us and the other affected sites. Hopefully we'll have this problem solved in the next 60-90 days. --Jon Thanks for the info-yeah, KGRR has had the issue for the past year or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 22z RUC forecast sounding for the area near where that cell northeast of KC is blowing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 Also initiating NW of St. Joe...this could get nasty soon. The atmosphere is cooked (3500 MLCAPE) and like we discussed earlier 0-1 km shear has increased to 30 kt over much of nrn Missouri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 COD team is in S. Iowa, between Bedford and Mount Ayr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 COD team is in S. Iowa, between Bedford and Mount Ayr. Not a bad location to be in right now. Plenty of developing supercells to choose from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 Caldwell Co., MO storm now with a large core of 40 dBZ, looking like it is ready to take off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 Caldwell Co., MO storm now with a large core of 40 dBZ, looking like it is ready to take off. Should start producing lightning in short order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 Should start producing lightning in short order. 0.50"+ hail marker on that cell now. Still growing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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