baroclinic_instability Posted June 14, 2011 Author Share Posted June 14, 2011 21- If the 0z NAM is a perfect prog then I wouldn't be shocked if we have a strong tornado in MO tomorrow.. Oh I would expect it if we realize something near the 00z NAM... NAM really has a pooling of low level moisture in NW MO inside the surface low w.r.t. the GFS, hence the cap erosion and initiation across much of northern MO around 21-00Z. Seems reasonable given the focused low level convergence over the area--interested if SPC focuses more on northern MO tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 14, 2011 Author Share Posted June 14, 2011 21- NAM really has a pooling of low level moisture in NW MO inside the surface low w.r.t. the GFS, hence the cap erosion and initiation across much of northern MO around 21-00Z. Seems reasonable given the focused low level convergence over the area--interested if SPC focuses more on northern MO tomorrow. Eh I guess the differences really are not that significant in terms of moisture--biggest difference is capping strength and timing of the greatest low level height falls/cap erosion. Thermals are a bit different too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 The HRRR is trying to advertise the sfc low being even further north tomorrow...already into southeast NE by 17z...that would really put IA in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 Here's a little image I put together in IDV tonight. This is the supercell that formed in Cherry County, NE tonight which as Baro said formed on a easterly upslope convergence zone. I have overlayed the radar data at the time it was producing a tornado, as well as the 10m winds in both vector and streamlines to show the convergence. Color shaded contour region is the SRH, with values starting at 25, and increasing by 25. The storm was in an environment of around 25-50 m2/s2. Tried to get current sfc data, but for some reason it kept on BSOD'ing (new word) my laptop, so I had to suffice with the latest 20km RUC data from 23Z. That being said, the vector, streamlines, and SRH are from the RUC, and then there is real time Level II data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 14, 2011 Author Share Posted June 14, 2011 Here's a little image I put together in IDV tonight. This is the supercell that formed in Cherry County, NE tonight which as Baro said formed on a easterly upslope convergence zone. I have overlayed the radar data at the time it was producing a tornado, as well as the 10m winds in both vector and streamlines to show the convergence. Color shaded contour region is the SRH, with values starting at 25, and increasing by 25. The storm was in an environment of around 25-50 m2/s2. Tried to get current sfc data, but for some reason it kept on BSOD'ing (new word) my laptop, so I had to suffice with the latest 20km RUC data from 23Z. That being said, the vector, streamlines, and SRH are from the RUC, and then there is real time Level II data. Wow nice job! Thanks for posting. I have a feeling the supercell itself was influencing the local wind fields because all data I looked at suggested a relatively weakly sheared environment (less than 35 kts effective bulk shear, less than 25-30 kts surface-6 km) with decent low level turning but rather unimpressive low level wind fields. Even the motion alone with increasing time would suggest that as it started out stationary then began to propagate S then SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 14, 2011 Author Share Posted June 14, 2011 Things are going to light up over No. and central MO late this afternoon. Latest 12z GFS is now initiating just before 00z like the NAM and shows the potential for more discrete action along the warm front before things merge after 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 Things are going to light up over No. and central MO late this afternoon. Latest 12z GFS is now initiating just before 00z like the NAM and shows the potential for more discrete action along the warm front before things merge after 00z. The 12z RUC was also breaking out discrete precip by 21z in southern IA/northern MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 14, 2011 Author Share Posted June 14, 2011 The 12z RUC was also breaking out discrete precip by 21z in southern IA/northern MO. I am a little surprised at how quiet this thread is. There is quite a bit of potential today. I would not be surprised if SPC upgrades something with one of the later updates today--whether that is the hatched outlooks or possibly a moderate later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 Hey mods, you might want to add the 17th to this thread...off the 12z NAM for friday...a good mid-level westerly jet with a strong LLJ with ample intstablity and moisture to work with with small area of locally backed sfc flow creating very high 0-3 EHI numbers of around 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 I am a little surprised at how quiet this thread is. There is quite a bit of potential today. I would not be surprised if SPC upgrades something with one of the later updates today--whether that is the hatched outlooks or possibly a moderate later. Ya agreed, The CoD team stayed in Syndey, NE last night and wasn't planning on chasing today due to the bad MO terrain but I told Sirvatka to reconsider and now they are chasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 14, 2011 Author Share Posted June 14, 2011 Hey mods, you might want to add the 17th to this thread...off the 12z NAM for friday...a good mid-level westerly jet with a strong LLJ with ample intstablity and moisture to work with with small area of locally backed sfc flow creating very high 0-3 EHI numbers of around 10 The problem of having such a large area. I say go ahead and start a new thread mainly because we will be dealing with a new "system" with the transition to the west coast trough. Looks like there will be several severe weather bouts with this incoming trough and subsequent PV's ejecting around the base of that mean trough all the way from the high plains into the MS Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 FWIW... The 0z 4km/SPC WRF targeted the KC area down into C. Missouri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 I am a little surprised at how quiet this thread is. There is quite a bit of potential today. I would not be surprised if SPC upgrades something with one of the later updates today--whether that is the hatched outlooks or possibly a moderate later. Near/west of St. Louis looks to be pretty unstable with 50-60 knots of shear. Yesterday was a cap bust over by KC, but today there may be some supercells in the area near/west of St. Louis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 With current satellite trends showing a Cu field in NW MO, major instability and shear, and the disturbance arriving late afternoon, I'd be not shocked at all to see something nasty along the IA/MO border or perhaps just S...right in radar lala land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 14, 2011 Author Share Posted June 14, 2011 Oceanstwx, I see you lurking too. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 18z RUC sounding along srn edge of convection that it has painted at 00z...better hope this isn't right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 You can see the pocket of differential CVA in Kansas that should help overcome the cap later this afternoon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 This image in interesting. Note the wind shift, temp rise, and dewpoint fall at Topeka. You can also see faint blue lines from the radar, indicative of a boundary. Dryline feature? Looks like it's bulging between Topeka and KC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 14, 2011 Author Share Posted June 14, 2011 You can see the pocket of differential CVA in Kansas that should help overcome the cap later this afternoon... Perfectly timed (or badly timed depending on which way you look at it) DCVA/Potential VA, also a late phase of the southern stream anomaly to the mean northern stream wave/trough. Looks to be some focused height falls and subsequent focused low level convergence over the capped region in response. There is not one 12Z piece of guidance that shows capping holding--and the clearing over the area is pretty obvious. This is a great time for an 18Z sounding--too bad there isn't really a suitable location across northern MO for one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 With current satellite trends showing a Cu field in NW MO, major instability and shear, and the disturbance arriving late afternoon, I'd be not shocked at all to see something nasty along the IA/MO border or perhaps just S...right in radar lala land. That was my exact thought when I saw this set up yesterday. Of course it would be in the radar hole. Hi-res models continue to show some nasty supercells along the Highway 36 to I-70 corridor. The effective warm front is starting to make some serious progress northward, especially bulging out in the KMCI area (81 to 87 in the last hour). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 Perfectly timed (or badly timed depending on which way you look at it) DCVA/Potential VA, also a late phase of the southern stream anomaly to the mean northern stream wave/trough. Looks to be some focused height falls and subsequent focused low level convergence over the capped region in response. There is not one 12Z piece of guidance that shows capping holding--and the clearing over the area is pretty obvious. This is a great time for an 18Z sounding--too bad there isn't really a suitable location across northern MO for one. Bigger issue today is going to be lack of a radar. That area (srn IA/nrn MO) has a lot of populated towns, and there is no excuse for the lack of radar coverage. I just hope it doesn't land us in a world of hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 From the 15z RUC, but I think it conveys the idea... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 Just landed in Kansas city and walked outside...holy cow it I soupy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 14, 2011 Author Share Posted June 14, 2011 ACUS11 KWNS 141957 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141956 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-142130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1218 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0256 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CNTRL...NRN AND ERN MO...FAR SRN IA...WRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 141956Z - 142130Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE BY ABOUT 23Z OVER NRN MO/SRN IA...THEN MOVE SEWD ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL MO AND EVENTUALLY WRN IL BY LATE EVENING. VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE LIKELY. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NERN KS AND SERN NEB...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD. TO THE E...A MODIFYING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXISTED ACROSS WRN MO...WHERE HEATING AND MIXING CONTINUES. ALOFT...GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING WILL CONTINUE AS A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVELS EWD ACROSS NEB/KS. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS BOUNDARY LAYER CU FROM NERN KS INTO THE MID MO VALLEY NEAR THE LOW WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S F. HERE...CAPPING IS LESS WITH COOLER 700 MB TEMPS...AND THIS IS ALSO TRUE EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS CNTRL MO AND TOWARD THE MS RIVER VALLEY. MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH ERUPTING CONVECTION OVER NRN MO AND SRN IA DURING THE 22-00Z TIME FRAME...WITH RAPID EXPANSION SEWD DURING THE EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...AND VERY LARGE DAMAGING HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...LOW LEVEL SHEAR/VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL FAVOR ROTATION AND A FEW TORNADOES. STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY MERGE AND FORM INTO A LARGER MCS WHICH WOULD TRAVEL SEWD INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 Our buddy has come out to play... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 Not surprised there. Cu increasing pretty quickly now near Kansas City, with a lot of ACCAS growth to the east (indicating the lift is arriving as well as the mid level lapse rates are more than sufficient). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 14, 2011 Author Share Posted June 14, 2011 Not surprised there. Cu increasing pretty quickly now near Kansas City, with a lot of ACCAS growth to the east (indicating the lift is arriving as well as the mid level lapse rates are more than sufficient). Yeah this looks explosive. One of these days where the "slight" is misleading since the potential prob wise and damage wise is much more significant than a slight with some hatched hail would indicate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 Yeah this looks explosive. One of these days where the "slight" is misleading since the potential prob wise and damage wise is much more significant than a slight with some hatched hail would indicate. I would find it hard to believe there is not a threat for a strong/perhaps very strong tornado in nrn MO/srn IA where the LCLs are lower and there should be excellent low-level shear. I would have gone 10 hatched for tornadoes myself if I were issuing the outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 Our buddy has come out to play... Jesus...talk about picking up on a threat...3 runs ago had a small contour of 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 I would find it hard to believe there is not a threat for a strong/perhaps very strong tornado in nrn MO/srn IA where the LCLs are lower and there should be excellent low-level shear. I would have gone 10 hatched for tornadoes myself if I were issuing the outlook. I tend to agree. Considering the strength of the surface winds (gusting around 25 kt) I'm surprised that the mesoanalysis is only showing 0-1 km shear around 15 kts. Although, this value should only go up as the LLJ begins to increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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