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June 13-16th Severe Weather Threat


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What the heck, might as well do it. Global guidance suggestive of the *potential* for a more significant and widespread severe event late Monday through Thursday across portions of the northern and central plains and into the OV/upper MS valley. The European models are more suggestive of an amplified wave flattening the amplified subtropical ridge whereas even the weak and far less organized GFS op/MREF would suggest localized severe threats given the very deep boundary layer moisture progged. While the GFS is not overally suggestive of an organized threat, it has not been the global model of choice through day 5 lately.

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The Euro has been surprisingly and creepily consistent the last several runs while gradually strengthening the system each run, to the point where the H5 trough is now neg-tilt with a closed contour by 12z Thursday morning. GFS is not in good agreement with it, but given that it is the Euro, it's unsettling.

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The Euro has been surprisingly and creepily consistent the last several runs while gradually strengthening the system each run, to the point where the H5 trough is now neg-tilt with a closed contour by 12z Thursday morning. GFS is not in good agreement with it, but given that it is the Euro, it's unsettling.

I wishall models produced this map for 6 hor intervals and in hires.

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The Euro has been surprisingly and creepily consistent the last several runs while gradually strengthening the system each run, to the point where the H5 trough is now neg-tilt with a closed contour by 12z Thursday morning. GFS is not in good agreement with it, but given that it is the Euro, it's unsettling.

Euro has backed off a little overall, but it is still the most aggressive of all guidance with the phasing of the individual PV anomalies then deepening the overall partially phased system into a closed contour upper level low. Still some pretty hefty disagreement amongst the guidance for 72-96 hrs out though.

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HPC had a blurb in their long range disco about the threat:

"THE 12Z ECMWF IS ON TRACK WITH MOST OF ITS MAJOR FEATURES RIGHT THRU DAY 6. IT HAS THE BEST OVERALL CONTINUITY OF ALL THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND WILL BE BLENDED 50% WITH HPC CONTINUITY IN CREATING THE UPDATED 500MB PROGS. IT WOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A MAJOR CONVECTIVE OUTBREAK IN THE ERN PLAINS/MID AND UPPER MSVLY/OH VLY WED-FRI."

Major may be a bit strongly worded even if the Euro verified--but it was interesting HPC went with that wording.

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HPC had a blurb in their long range disco about the threat:

"THE 12Z ECMWF IS ON TRACK WITH MOST OF ITS MAJOR FEATURES RIGHT THRU DAY 6. IT HAS THE BEST OVERALL CONTINUITY OF ALL THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND WILL BE BLENDED 50% WITH HPC CONTINUITY IN CREATING THE UPDATED 500MB PROGS. IT WOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A MAJOR CONVECTIVE OUTBREAK IN THE ERN PLAINS/MID AND UPPER MSVLY/OH VLY WED-FRI."

Major may be a bit strongly worded even if the Euro verified--but it was interesting HPC went with that wording.

Yeah I don't think Wednesday would end well here if the Euro verified...not to mention is hits us again near the end of its range...

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Yeah I don't think Wednesday would end well here if the Euro verified...not to mention is hits us again near the end of its range...

Yeah the Euro is definitely more amped up that the GFS at this point, will be interesting to see which one blinks first on this one.

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Pretty sure the Euro is trying to give me an ulcer. 12z run holds its ground big time, this time though with warmer temps at H85, which by proxy would likely indicate a more unstable atmosphere...gah.

Well the 18Z NAM is the first American model to cave to a stronger solution. Looks more organized in the upper level flow than previous runs of both the GFS/NAM.

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Not to mention, and I know it's out of the thread range, but my GOD by day 8 on the Euro...good Lord is this April or May...

Ya 180hrs on the 12z Euro is nuts...I wish I could post the images but its not even worth it given its that far out but a decent sized around of 5000+ j/kg and 75 dews around here just ahead of that system.

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Ya 180hrs on the 12z Euro is nuts...I wish I could post the images but its not even worth it given its that far out but a decent sized around of 5000+ j/kg and 75 dews around here just ahead of that system.

Lol there's over 6000 J/kg of CAPE in Northern Indiana @ 204 hours out...pure weenie porn. :scooter:

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Lol there's over 6000 J/kg of CAPE in Northern Indiana @ 204 hours out...pure weenie porn. :scooter:

Look at you...so excited you couldn't even get the hour right. ;)

156 hour has over 6000 J/kg over Central IL and 180 hour has it over Northern IN.

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