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Weekend of 6/10-6/12 General Thunderstorm Discussion


IsentropicLift

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This weekend seemed to be a replica of last weekend -- both crappy with overcast skies, cool temps in the 60s, etc. Today I'm at 63.7F and wondering if the forecast of 81F is within reach. If we can get some sun, but the visible satellite doesn't look too promising/

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I guess he didnt see the long range models having the heat ridge build in. Oh and today we will hit 80, sun is starting to try to poke out and we have now hit 70.

anyway what does everyone think of the shower chances later? Do you think we get missed? seems like action to the north rather than in NJ?

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I guess he didnt see the long range models having the heat ridge build in. Oh and today we will hit 80, sun is starting to try to poke out and we have now hit 70.

anyway what does everyone think of the shower chances later? Do you think we get missed? seems like action to the north rather than in NJ?

Getting more breaks now as well with temp upto 71 here. Still an overall crumby day.

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Brightening up here in Port Jeff Village at 63, 4F rise in past hour. Brightening skies, thankfully, for annual dog marathon and concert. Just a D+ spring early summer season since April 1. A few, anomolous weeks of warmth interspersed with miserable east winds and clouds. Not spring 2009, but generally undesirable.

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Yeah same I assume its something about a backdoor and us being in the 60s all week.

He predicts a noreaster this Friday and only one models shows that anyway temps only at 65 F right now. Tuesday looks to be in the 60's also but hopefully that will it after that.

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I guess he didnt see the long range models having the heat ridge build in. Oh and today we will hit 80, sun is starting to try to poke out and we have now hit 70.

anyway what does everyone think of the shower chances later? Do you think we get missed? seems like action to the north rather than in NJ?

:arrowhead: .....RUT ROH

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It did warmed up to 70 or 71 F today here with some breaks of sun after this morning there was some round of showers and thunderstorms here. Now the clouds are back in place with temps falled back to 66 F here but the warm front did stayed just SW of the NYC like I though it would.

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So much for 80. I barely hit the low 70s and have fallen back to 67 now.

NWS had a total bust here....didn't look at the forecast yesterday but Friday night they had a high of 83F here for Sunday PM. Actual high for Dobbs Ferry was 67.8F, now down to 65/62 with overcast skies. I had to postpone some private tennis lessons I was supposed to give but ended up tutoring Spanish instead, so still got the money.

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  • 10 months later...

Please look at the high resolution models for Sunday, the weather will repeat Saturday temps and sky conditions. We do not break into warm sector... Please don't say this is wrong. We likely break into some sun and 75 Monday, before clouds, rain and drizzle return for Tuesday and into most of Wednesday with highs in the upper 50's Tuesday, and mid 60's Wednesday but still cloudy (Cut-off low spoils up New England and our local weather. Thursday likely sunny and 75 again, Friday looks like an out of season nor'easter like system coming up the coast with 58-62 again. (Several model support Friday wash out) like DGEX, NOGAPS and GFS) We look to have our heads dipped in and out of the toity for this upcoming week, about ten days from now maybe we can discuss any heat talk, but it looks just like glancing blows with our area on the extreme NE fringe of any heat, with New England looking cool and at times cloudy for 2 weeks straight per the last few ECMWF runs. The ECMWF runs never warm sectoring us for its entire 240 hour runs the last few cycles, suggest (my opinion) is not completely baseless and wrong. I am starting to wonder if our area is done with the worst heat of the summer, as it seems to settling further south and west from our area when it flexes its muscles in the long term. We look to miss out on heat going forward with whatever new pattern just started and it looks more like the pre Memorial day pattern, but without the heat promise we had at that time. 2000/ 2009 pattern is hitting us all of a sudden, with no easy way out of it either. I am resigned to seeing many more days like today, this summer, than we had last year with the weakening El Nino. Aren't first year La NINA summer crappy for the northeast like 2000 with front loaded heat in May and early June, and then crappy periods more prevalent when summer comes in. First year NINA summer's seem to feature its share of days like we just had, so I'd say get use to more of this during periods of this summer with a few isolated hot periods.

Verification:

Mon 6/13/11: 73/60

Tue 6/14/11: 72/58

Wed 6/15/11: 83/56

Thu 6/16/11: 84/62

Fri 6/17/11: 76/64

Sat 6/18/11: 83/64

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