H2O Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 If I don't get any rain today I will never post again.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 If I don't get any rain today I will never post again.... I'm holding you to that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 I'm holding you to that I almost agree with him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 I almost agree with him Should we all start a movement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Should we all start a movement? Make an ultimatum to Mother Nature. You better make it storm today, or I'll... I'll... um... hmm... just please make it storm today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoCoSnowBo Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr%3A&runTime=2011061212&plotName=mref_t3sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR+Model+Fields&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t3&wjet=1 HRRR giving us some love for tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr%3A&runTime=2011061212&plotName=mref_t3sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR+Model+Fields&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t3&wjet=1 HRRR giving us some love for tonight Interesting... almost like two rounds... we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoCoSnowBo Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Interesting... almost like two rounds... we shall see Yeah that caught my eye as well. Suns been out all morning, temps rising steadily! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 LWX updated morning AFD seems to agree with that... saying the mesoscale models support/have two separate rounds. Though quick question, what is meant by this sentence: "The new 12Z NAM has a strong mean layer H85-H7 UVV at 21z oriented N-S along the I-95 corridor" I guess squall line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 I'm predicting a fail for today after what just happened to me - Went to drink the rest of the milk out of my cereal bowl and the bowl proceeded to flip and soak into my pants with milk. Horrible sensation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 I'm predicting a fail for today after what just happened to me - Went to drink the rest of the milk out of my cereal bowl and the bowl proceeded to flip and soak into my pants with milk. Horrible sensation. haha good thing i had 2 fudge rounds before work at 6 this morning. youngin like me working at 6, phew needed that sugar a bit. Btw like the looks of the HRRR 2 to 3 rounds shown. Would love to see it happen, and good to see sterling wit a little entusiasmo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 haha good thing i had 2 fudge rounds before work at 6 this morning. youngin like me working at 6, phew needed that sugar a bit. Btw like the looks of the HRRR 2 to 3 rounds shown. Would love to see it happen, and good to see sterling wit a little entusiasmo. No arguments there. Although we've seen plenty of times where Sterling is on board and we fail. Plus - corn fumes are something to bet on every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 No arguments there. Although we've seen plenty of times where Sterling is on board and we fail. Plus - corn fumes are something to bet on every time. this is true, but hey we can't cry over spilled milk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Interesting... almost like two rounds... we shall see LWX ARW and NMM models show two rounds as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 12, 2011 Author Share Posted June 12, 2011 LWX ARW and NMM models show two rounds as well I predict 6 rounds.. Major epicness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 I predict 6 rounds.. Major epicness oh i love when you talk like that that would be epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 I predict 6 rounds.. Major epicness Meh. I want lucky 7 Hey Ian, what did that last sentence in the updated morning AFD mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 I predict 6 rounds.. Major epicness If it doesn't happen I think Randy should be allowed to ban you permanently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 If it doesn't happen I think Randy should be allowed to ban you permanently. Randy hasn't been in here in forever... I think he's a winter clique member Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 12, 2011 Author Share Posted June 12, 2011 Meh. I want lucky 7 Hey Ian, what did that last sentence in the updated morning AFD mean? The one about sailing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 The one about sailing? The one re the 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 12, 2011 Author Share Posted June 12, 2011 The one re the 12z NAM i think they're just talking about the frontal passage and vv's associated with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoCoSnowBo Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Look out in PA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 i think they're just talking about the frontal passage and vv's associated with it. Okies. I was thinking they meant something about a squall line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 12, 2011 Author Share Posted June 12, 2011 Okies. I was thinking they meant something about a squall line well, they probably are.. vertical velocities bring lift/rain/storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 I predict 6 rounds.. Major epicness 6 rounds of epic fail... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 MD just came out... watch possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Maybe the front will drive an unbroken line of storms from HSB to ROA right through us. Everyone wins. The big lines have been elusive lately. I remember them being more common years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1193 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1103 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE ERN W VA PNHDL...S CNTRL PA...CNTRL MD AND NRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 121603Z - 121730Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND MAY IMPACT AREAS NEAR/EAST OF CHARLOTTESVILLE... NORTHWARD THROUGH WASHINGTON D.C./BALTIMORE...AND HARRISBURG/ LANCASTER...DURING THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY BE A BIT MARGINAL...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INITIATE NEAR THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS...NEAR OR JUST AHEAD OF A SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WEAKLY DIFLUENT AND DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID/UPPER CLOSED LOW MIGRATING EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO DEVELOPMENT... WHICH APPEARS LIKELY TO PERSIST AND INCREASE FURTHER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALTHOUGH COOL SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS MAY BE SLOW MODIFY...SURFACE HEATING AND WEAK MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENIES SOUTHWARD INTO THE VICINITY OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION. AS A RESULT...STRONGEST CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONTAL ZONE TOWARD THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT CAPE TO RELATIVELY MODEST VALUES OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG...GREATEST NEAR SURFACE TROUGHING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE WASHINGTON D.C./BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS. SO STORM INTENSIFICATION MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY RAPID...BUT STRENGTHENING OF 500 MB FLOW TO AROUND 30 KT ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES MAY INCREASE VERTICAL SHEAR SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT AN UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH INTO AN ORGANIZING STORM CLUSTER. THIS COULD EVENTUALLY YIELD A STRONG ENOUGH COLD POOL TO SUPPORT A RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. OTHERWISE...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IN THE STRONGER CELLS MAY BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Maybe the front will drive an unbroken line of storms from HSB to ROA right through us. Everyone wins. The big lines have been elusive lately. I remember them being more common years ago. Clearly, the la nina is still affecting the weather pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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