Ian Posted June 10, 2011 Author Share Posted June 10, 2011 18z NAM is win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 10, 2011 Author Share Posted June 10, 2011 well unless you have something to do at 7:30 maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 10, 2011 Author Share Posted June 10, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southbridgemom Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Same... Thanks Ellinwood! Appreciate the input. I'm more worried about the relatives attending (some not doing that well-- just thankful they're able to come). Just look for a crazed Mom around the Bristow area tomorrow night armed with multiple umbrellas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Um... convective feedback ftw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 10, 2011 Author Share Posted June 10, 2011 Um... convective feedback ftw? i dunno... usually when the nam does that it means someone's going to get slammed. pattern supports it. i could see someone getting 3-5" of rain tomorrow/night if things move slowly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Well, a good way to determine the validity of a particular model forecast for summer is to look at the northern Shenandoah Valley. If the model predicts rain there, it's wrong. This method of forecasting will let you down very few times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 10, 2011 Author Share Posted June 10, 2011 i dunno... usually when the nam does that it means someone's going to get slammed. pattern supports it. i could see someone getting 3-5" of rain tomorrow/night if things move slowly. this might be provocative... im not sure it will be my official forecast for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 11, 2011 Share Posted June 11, 2011 Perhaps the leftover boundaries from today will be the focus for the best stuff tomorrow (and flooding). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted June 11, 2011 Share Posted June 11, 2011 2 inches from a popup thunderstorm with almost no movement. Plenty of lightning, some cloud to ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 11, 2011 Author Share Posted June 11, 2011 bust http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_p12_024m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted June 11, 2011 Share Posted June 11, 2011 I am going with a bust for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 11, 2011 Share Posted June 11, 2011 I am going with a bust for tomorrow. was it ever in doubt that it would be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 11, 2011 Author Share Posted June 11, 2011 was it ever in doubt that it would be? as a met student you have less excuse to be a dummy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 11, 2011 Share Posted June 11, 2011 as a met student you have less excuse to be a dummy Agreed on the enhanced responsibility. I wasn't trying to be rude though, I just had never given this rain threat any real credence outside of some isolated .5-1" totals. Not the region wide drought dent-er that the NAM has had up till the 0z run. I apologize to anyone who thought my comment came off rudely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 11, 2011 Share Posted June 11, 2011 I just hope we get some nice boomers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 11, 2011 Author Share Posted June 11, 2011 Agreed on the enhanced responsibility. I wasn't trying to be rude though, I just had never given this rain threat any real credence outside of some isolated .5-1" totals. Not the region wide drought dent-er that the NAM has had up till the 0z run. I apologize to anyone who thought my comment came off rudely. cool... we'll see. convection is always fun. the sing song bust crowd is getting more lame as time goes on tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 11, 2011 Share Posted June 11, 2011 Oh don't get me wrong, I really want a good downpour. My front grass is starting to go to that flaky brown and the various birds I think are starting to take my funneled tip rain gauge on the roof as their personal toilet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 11, 2011 Author Share Posted June 11, 2011 eh, some in wv may have the 3-5" before dawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2011 Share Posted June 11, 2011 bust http://www.nco.ncep....am_p12_024m.gif I'm still calling for 3-6"... oh wait... its summer time... I'll go with under a quarter of an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 11, 2011 Share Posted June 11, 2011 cool... we'll see. convection is always fun. the sing song bust crowd is getting more lame as time goes on tho. I you too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 11, 2011 Author Share Posted June 11, 2011 I'm still calling for 3-6"... oh wait... its summer time... I'll go with under a quarter of an inch modelolegy is so 2010. should be fun in some fashion... im tentatively planning a natl mall chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 11, 2011 Share Posted June 11, 2011 LMAO - The 06z runs of the local LWX models (ARW and NMM) give DC one heck of an epic split/shafting. A cluster of storms pops to the SW or SSW which kind of skirts to the south while storms pop east and well NW of the city. The east stuff moves off and the NW stuff fizzles to nothing as it reaches DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 11, 2011 Share Posted June 11, 2011 Looks like some sort of boundary just pushed through Howard County headed for Montgomery County and DC based on radar. Maybe another boundary south of DC. Focuses (foci?) for storms later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 11, 2011 Share Posted June 11, 2011 13z SPC Day 1 outlook basically has us in the middle of the SLIGHT risk. 15% wind and hail. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO MID ATLANTIC STATES... MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE ENEWD THIS PERIOD ACROSS SWRN ONTARIO INTO WRN QUEBEC WITH A CORRIDOR OF WEAK HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL RESULT IN THE NEWD DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW FROM NRN IL/IND INTO SWRN PARTS OF ONTARIO/QUEBEC WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW WILL ALLOW FOR THE NWD/NEWD DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE DE AND LOWER/MID HUDSON VALLEYS TODAY. CLOUD DEBRIS AND CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF DECAYING NOCTURNAL TSTM COMPLEXES FROM THE OH TO DE VALLEYS HAS CAST CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON SUBSEQUENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS LOCATIONS WEST AND NORTH OF THE OH RIVER WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM/DESTABILIZE OWING TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS. A COMPARATIVELY GREATER POTENTIAL AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION /I.E. MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J PER KG/ IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM ALONG AND E OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS NWD INTO CNTRL PARTS OF NY/PA WHERE STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING WILL OCCUR. FORCING AHEAD OF LEAD MCV OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD POOL WILL LIKELY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT TODAY WHERE THE AIR MASS CAN SUFFICIENTLY DESTABILIZE. REGION WILL GENERALLY REMAIN TO THE S OF THE STRONGER MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELD ATTENDANT TO THE GREAT LAKES VORTICITY MAXIMUM WITH KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted June 11, 2011 Share Posted June 11, 2011 cool... we'll see. convection is always fun. the sing song bust crowd is getting more lame as time goes on tho. Thanks Ian! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 11, 2011 Author Share Posted June 11, 2011 Thanks Ian! No prob.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 11, 2011 Share Posted June 11, 2011 Riptide says it's going to explode! Game on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted June 11, 2011 Share Posted June 11, 2011 Riptide says it's going to explode! Game on? <img src='http://208.71.34.143/public/style_emoticons/default/tongue.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' /> It's exploding in my pants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 11, 2011 Share Posted June 11, 2011 It's exploding in my pants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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