Ian Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 NAM likes tomorrow. SPC likes it a little better than before... tho the slight needs to come further east imo. Features are a bit weak but overall in pretty typical positions for svr weather days around here. Then there's the continuing threat for heavy rain in some spots till the front clears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 NAM likes tomorrow. SPC likes it a little better than before... tho the slight needs to come further east imo. Features are a bit weak but overall in pretty typical positions for svr weather days around here. Then there's the continuing threat for heavy rain in some spots till the front clears. Will want to take a look at the 1730z day 2 update. Maybe it'll toss some goodies our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 I'm hosting my wife's 30th birthday party tomorrow...outside...at 4pm. We have a pavilion, but I hope the rain holds off until dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 10, 2011 Author Share Posted June 10, 2011 Will want to take a look at the 1730z day 2 update. Maybe it'll toss some goodies our way. timing may be their deal... but i'd still bump it east a bit. they probably will. maybe someone (PA favored?) can pull a 5% torn out of it. the nam keeps bullseying me.. which im sure means it will skip around d.c. but eh. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_p24_042m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 timing may be their deal... but i'd still bump it east a bit. they probably will. maybe someone (PA favored?) can pull a 5% torn out of it. the nam keeps bullseying me.. which im sure means it will skip around d.c. but eh. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_p24_042m.gif Gotta have faith! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Not bad.* *Not that good, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 10, 2011 Author Share Posted June 10, 2011 Not bad.* *Not that good, either. you've taken meh to a new level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Strong enough winds to get an organized line going... worth watching. I'll put us in a 2% TOR risk for RIC and points north EDIT: For Saturday (just clarifying) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 I may need to learn to like tracking severe that never materializes IMBY...we have become a severe forum ...unfortunately I don't know enough about it I like it when it hits my house, but can't say I get amped about a supercell 50 miles away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 I may need to learn to like tracking severe that never materializes IMBY...we have become a severe forum ...unfortunately I don't know enough about it I like it when it hits my house, but can't say I get amped about a supercell 50 miles away Agree on this point here - while I do enjoy taking a look at a well formed supercell on GR2AE I enjoy experiencing the weather more. It's always a downer to watch amazing storms go up knowing full well that they will probably split or die around DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 My confidence in this weekend took a bit of a hit after last night's poof. The precip blob over DC on the NAM is a huge tease right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 For you, Ian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 What about today - anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 10, 2011 Author Share Posted June 10, 2011 new d2 did come east a bit from just south of d.c. north.. a very bit around here. ...OH VALLEY/NORTHEAST STATES... AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH/ASSOCIATED BELT OF ENHANCED FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY. THE POSSIBILITY OF EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER/ONGOING EARLY DAY CONVECTION PROVIDES SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING DESTABILIZATION ALONG/IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...IT DOES SEEMS LIKELY THAT AN UPSWING IN DEEP CONVECTION WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITHIN A WEAK CINH/DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. DAMAGING WINDS/SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. WHILE AN APPRECIABLE TORNADO POTENTIAL IS NOT EXPECTED...AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY BE POSSIBLE PORTIONS OF PA/NY IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT/PRE-COLD FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 10, 2011 Author Share Posted June 10, 2011 What about today - anything? probably.. garden variety maybe pulse iso svr. it could go here or in the general thread. this weekend probably has more svr potential and perhaps even some flash flood risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 probably.. garden variety maybe pulse iso svr. it could go here or in the general thread. this weekend probably has more svr potential and perhaps even some flash flood risk. okay, there was some talk of it in the general thread, so I'll ask over there. Keep this thread for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 probably.. garden variety maybe pulse iso svr. it could go here or in the general thread. this weekend probably has more svr potential and perhaps even some flash flood risk. I kind of miss the excitement that I experienced with June 2006. That was ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 10, 2011 Author Share Posted June 10, 2011 I kind of miss the excitement that I experienced with June 2006. That was ridiculous. yeah.. that was probably a top 5 weather experience here -- especially if i count 09-10 as one experience and same with last summer heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 I may need to learn to like tracking severe that never materializes IMBY...we have become a severe forum ...unfortunately I don't know enough about it I like it when it hits my house, but can't say I get amped about a supercell 50 miles away It's a lot like tracking snow that never materializes, but warmer and with more bendy trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 yeah.. that was probably a top 5 weather experience here -- especially if i count 09-10 as one experience and same with last summer heat. Let's see here: floods(06), blizzards(09-10) and flame(10) All we need is a huge wind event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 10, 2011 Author Share Posted June 10, 2011 Let's see here: floods(06), blizzards(09-10) and flame(10) All we need is a huge wind event. we had one or two during the late winter. synoptic wind is lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 It's a lot like tracking snow that never materializes, but warmer and with more bendy trees. I don't see them as comparable..severe seems to be a lot more unpredictable with bigger downsides and upsides Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 yeah.. that was probably a top 5 weather experience here -- especially if i count 09-10 as one experience and same with last summer heat. we almost died in my Maxima Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 10, 2011 Author Share Posted June 10, 2011 I don't see them as comparable..severe seems to be a lot more unpredictable with bigger downsides and upsides they're comparable in that they both tend to suck here, but i think there is a bigger screw factor with svr since you can have a 'great day' and get totally missed or the other way around. we almost died in my Maxima turn around dont drown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Let's see here: floods(06), blizzards(09-10) and flame(10) All we need is a huge wind event. The winds of 2/19/11 were pretty sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoCoSnowBo Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 NEED SOME QUICK HELP! What do you think the timing of the rain will be in Central MD tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 NEED SOME QUICK HELP! What do you think the timing of the rain will be in Central MD tomorrow? Remnant morning showers giving way to very isolated activity in the early afternoon, followed by more robust storms in the late afternoon and early evening. i.e. pretty much on/off the whole day... about 30% POP in central MD before 3:00 and 60% POP from 3:00-11:00. (% POP = % probability of precipitation) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoCoSnowBo Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Remnant morning showers giving way to very isolated activity in the early afternoon, followed by more robust storms in the late afternoon and early evening. i.e. pretty much on/off the whole day... about 30% POP in central MD before 3:00 and 60% POP from 3:00-11:00. (% POP = % probability of precipitation) Thanks for the quick reply. I was stuck with the decision of going to OC or staying home so I can play in my playoff baseball game at 1:30 tomorrow. If i was confident the game would be rained out, i would go to OC but it looks like we may get the game in. (That is if nothing heavy comes through tonight) ((hopefully the cell moving right for me dies out )) need field to stay dry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southbridgemom Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Okay, got a question for you know it alls: Got daughter's HS graduation tomorrow night at Jiffy Lube Live at 7:30pm. You think we'll have anything big going on 'bout that time? When I graduated from HS (30 yrs ago today!), we had a TS with a torrential downpour in the middle of my ceremony. Any chance of that tradition continuing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Okay, got a question for you know it alls: Got daughter's HS graduation tomorrow night at Jiffy Lube Live at 7:30pm. You think we'll have anything big going on 'bout that time? When I graduated from HS (30 yrs ago today!), we had a TS with a torrential downpour in the middle of my ceremony. Any chance of that tradition continuing? Same... Remnant morning showers giving way to very isolated activity in the early afternoon, followed by more robust storms in the late afternoon and early evening. i.e. pretty much on/off the whole day... about 30% POP in central MD before 3:00 and 60% POP from 3:00-11:00. (% POP = % probability of precipitation) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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