bluewave Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Just like we saw last year,the ridge north of Hawaii has resulted in a trough near the West Coast and a ridge in the East. Although last spring was much warmer across the region,the ridge was present north of Hawaii just like this spring. So far this June we have seen above normal average temperatures along with record high temperatures here in the East. Other summers with above normal temperatures had this pattern in common also. The GFS and EURO have underestimated the heat potential here in the long range only to catch on as we got closer to the forecast time. You can see that on the GFS week 2 error charts. The big question is how long will we see this pattern persist?Even if the models show cooler temperatures moving after the the current heat,above normal temperatures will eventually return as long as the trough digs near the West Coast and the ridge further east gets pumped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Just like we saw last year,the ridge north of Hawaii has resulted in a trough near the West Coast and a ridge in the East. Although last spring was much warmer across the region,the ridge was present north of Hawaii just like this spring. Spring 2010 Spring 2011 So far this June we have seen above normal average temperatures along with record high temperatures here in the East. This heat matches up very well with the summer pattern present in our area when there is a ridge located north Of Hawaii like we had last summer. Other very hot summers had this pattern in common also. The GFS and EURO have underestimated the heat potential here in the long range only to catch on as we got closer to the forecast time. You can see that on the GFS week 2 error charts. The big question is how long will we see this pattern persist?Even if the models show cooler temperatures moving after the the current heat,above normal temperatures will eventually return as long as the trough digs near the West Coast and the ridge further east gets pumped up. I don't know, but hopefully it locks in. It's about time we get some real summer weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 I don't know, but hopefully it locks in. It's about time we get some real summer weather. Definitely-- those summers he mentioned were classics-- although he missed 1944, 1966, 1991 and 1995 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 The GFS is already hinting at another period of ridging in about a week. After that the GEFS has rising heights on the east coast once again through the long range. I think the general pattern has support to continue through July...with potential for 3-5 day periods of big heat followed by fronts/storms and brief periods of below normal temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 I thought all along that between memorial day and July 4th or a little after will be the warmest in relation to averages for the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Looks like there is some significiant disagreement right now between the GFS and the EC. Overall the pattern looks more zonal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 This was aided by the dying la nina system and the ongoing -PDO circulation. There was also enhancement from the peaking +QBO, too (it helps intensify the 180 low north of the equator and high north of Hawaii by messing with the Hadley Cell).Usually this kind of pattern shifts in July when waves shorten further and the N.H. is at its warmest. The ridge will tend to build westward but the southern Plains' drought will try to anchor it east somewhat. Ultimately, a low anomaly will probably develop over the Southeast at some point, while warmer anomalies spill over-top across the Midwest and Northeast. The +QBO will continue to keep a more substantial trough out of the area, especially during times of -AAM tendencies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted June 11, 2011 Share Posted June 11, 2011 Great discussion guys! Will anyone update after the 12z runs today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 11, 2011 Share Posted June 11, 2011 ECM and gfs split, would lean towards the warmer solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 What is causing this warm season to feature days like the chilly days of 2009, interspersed with the hottest days of 2010. Very strange to see these two summers flipping back and forth between weeks. One hot extreme of Sonoran heat and ridge and then backdoor mP wedge of the coolest summers. Why the back and forth extremes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 12, 2011 Author Share Posted June 12, 2011 What is causing this warm season to feature days like the chilly days of 2009, interspersed with the hottest days of 2010. Very strange to see these two summers flipping back and forth between weeks. One hot extreme of Sonoran heat and ridge and then backdoor mP wedge of the coolest summers. Why the back and forth extremes. Since this was a La Nina spring,the below normal temperatures over Canada were able to be drawn down between the warm ups . We saw a reverse of this pattern with the El Nino last spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 ECM and gfs split, would lean towards the warmer solution. GFS slowly moving towards the Euro with warmth building in on/around the 18th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 We will have to deal with a chilly more few days then by the end of next weekend it should warm back up with the ridge taking over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 12z guidance maintains the ridge northeast of HI and a persistent trough along the west coast... Suspect wamring will push into the northeast in spurts as it has been. Perhaps a more sustained hear signal may be in the cards in early July. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/test8.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 12z guidance maintains the ridge northeast of HI and a persistent trough along the west coast... Suspect wamring will push into the northeast in spurts as it has been. Perhaps a more sustained hear signal may be in the cards in early July. http://www.meteo.psu...F_12z/test8.gif yes how is that not a hot pattern for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 The latest ecm is a bit more adamant in building that ridge northeast of HI later next week into the weekend (7/9). Perhaps this combined with a strengthening Atlantic ridge (backing west) will lead to a more sustained warm - heat signal into the second week of July/mid month. Tthe cavat remains the waekness over southeast Canada. None the less fun to track for both those rooting cool or hot. For now the average to slightly above regime looks to remain in place for the next week with shots of heat this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 The latest ecm is a bit more adamant in building that ridge northeast of HI later next week into the weekend (7/9). Perhaps this combined with a strengthening Atlantic ridge (backing west) will lead to a more sustained warm - heat signal into the second week of July/mid month. Tthe cavat remains the waekness over southeast Canada. None the less fun to track for both those rooting cool or hot. For now the average to slightly above regime looks to remain in place for the next week with shots of heat this weekend. GFS and ecm hinting that the atlantic ridge will lead to a very warm to hot pattern on/around the 9th as ridge builds in and heights rise along the east coast. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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