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6/9 Thunderstorm Discussion


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Ugghh, this is not at all what I wanted to see, oh well...we'll be getting some thunderstorms, but if this thing doesn't evolve very quickly over the next hour they will definitely not be memorable in the metro area. Meanwhile, SNE webcams are a good place to look if you want a view of a derecho approaching.

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Ugghh, this is not at all what I wanted to see, oh well...we'll be getting some thunderstorms, but if this thing doesn't evolve very quickly over the next hour they will definitely not be memorable in the metro area. Meanwhile, SNE webcams are a good place to look if you want a view of a derecho approaching.

As the line approaches our area it is going to expand and intensify.This is going to be a memorable night for us.Just be patient.

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earthlight jinxed it....j/k, but tail of the line looks nothing like what SNE is getting. Wow up there.

Well to be fair those storms are further east in the more supportive environment. It will be interesting to see if the line strengthens as it entertains the more favorable environment over SNY and NNJ. Will be watching closely, regardless still our best threat to date so far it would appear.

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Well I'm cautiously optimistic right now, the line dropping SE towards us doesn't look overly impressive right now but I have to hope it will intensify with the incredible amount of instability and moisture around here.

The fact that the line is not impressive is a great sign for us,let it build and intensify as it nears the coast.(which it will)

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The big cell that popped up and moved over southern Orange county may have temporarily choked off the line in that area but back towards Sussex county and the Poconos, the line is still very strong. Don't forget, the strongest CAPE was always over our region and the storms are just now beginning too tap it. Shear profiles are also increasing quite a bit, espeically east of the city.

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reading the SNE thread, bark is worse than the bite, so far. They aren't seeing the crazy winds just yet.

This thing is producing big time from the reports I've seen. New meso out suggests continued strengthening, too.

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830  

ACUS11 KWNS 092018  

SWOMCD  

SPC MCD 092017  

MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-092145-  

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1157  

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  

0317 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2011  

 

AREAS AFFECTED...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND  

 

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 452...  

 

VALID 092017Z - 092145Z  

 

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 452  

CONTINUES.  

 

THE SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING SQUALL LINE IS NOW ENCOUNTERING A  

STRONGLY HEATED AND VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE PRE-FRONTAL  

SURFACE TROUGH. RAPID INTENSIFICATION HAS ALREADY BEEN OCCURRING  

NEAR THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY...AND FURTHER  

STRENGTHENING OF STORMS APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH 21-22Z AS ACTIVITY  

SPREADS INTO THE GREATER BOSTON AND NEW YORK METROPOLITAN AREAS.  

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HAIL ARE LIKELY...WITH AN  

INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT PROBABLE WITH FURTHER STRENGTHENING  

OF THE CONVECTIVELY GENERATED COLD POOL.  

 

..KERR.. 06/09/2011  

   

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT  

 

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...  

 

LAT...LON 41367490 41687421 42007269 42707167 43397106 43117085  

42447075 41887108 41407224 40977313 40617365 40287422  

40347473 40777528

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In my 3 years of living here I cannot recall such a line existing anywhere near here. I'm excited. :popcorn:

May 2007, something similar came through after several days of relentless heat. There were tornados in bethel and newtown ct with and straight line wind damage all over.

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Ugghh, this is not at all what I wanted to see, oh well...we'll be getting some thunderstorms, but if this thing doesn't evolve very quickly over the next hour they will definitely not be memorable in the metro area. Meanwhile, SNE webcams are a good place to look if you want a view of a derecho approaching.

Bro, just be patient. The storms in PA haven't even reached the area with better dynamics while the storms in SNE have. Once they reach the NJ/PA borderline, Expect them to go BOOM. At this point, I just want some damn rain.

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May 2007, something similar came through after several days of relentless heat. There were tornados in bethel and newtown ct with and straight line wind damage all over.

We've had plenty of squall lines. Were you here for June 1, 2006? I don't remember ever seeing so much lightning before that storm. There was lightning nearly every 30 seconds. It was surreal

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We've had plenty of squall lines. Were you here for June 1, 2006? I don't remember ever seeing so much lightning before that storm. There was lightning nearly every 30 seconds. It was surreal

I was just pointing one out that reminded me of this. I also remember the 2006 line, that thing was very very impressive.

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If something tornadic happens, it seems like W and C CT into SE NY, including the city, is becoming the prime spot given the 40kt mid level flow and increase in SRH. The 20z 0-1 and 0-3km SRH is becoming noteworthy now in this area (max 150 and 200 m2/s2 respectively).

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